00:00What's the reaction to that jobs report from 20 minutes ago?
00:03Yeah, I mean, I think you guys have covered it well. It was a strong report across the board.
00:08And, you know, the jobs report really only had the chance to sort of decrease the likelihood if it was
00:14exceptionally weak.
00:16This is, as you guys have discussed, this is much more about next week and much more about inflation.
00:21You know, the one thing I would I would sort of point out is that the point three.
00:24Yeah, that that's that's good. And it's a rebound.
00:27But if you look at the year over year figures, you know, the labor market isn't really contributing to the
00:33inflation story.
00:34A lot of discussion about whether or not wage inflation is passing through and whether that's the story.
00:39But it's not really the story. And so I think, as Lisa just said, this kind of confirms what we've
00:44known about the labor market.
00:45And it puts the focus and the onus back on the inflation.
00:49And so it's really about inflation going up or not going down fast enough as to whether or not the
00:55Fed hikes in the September meeting.
00:57And I think that's the takeaway from the labor market report today.
01:01Can we just sit on the labor market for an extra beat, Jeff, and just build on what you said?
01:04Because I do think it's important. We have had a form of negative supply shock go through the labor market.
01:10That's important. That's why people are talking about a lower break even rate.
01:13We're experiencing pretty hot nominal GDP in this country, yet we're not generating wage growth, big wage growth.
01:20The kind of numbers you might associate with those kind of forces, Jeff.
01:23Why do you think that is?
01:25Yeah, I mean, as you just talked about the supply shock and the impact of the supply side, you know,
01:31low hire, low fire kind of job market environment.
01:35And as well, kind of the legacy of the job matching that occurred from the dislocations of COVID.
01:42So we're still coming back down off of that dislocation and normalizing.
01:48There's a lot going on underneath the surface between high wage players and low wage payers.
01:53But overall, the story is that wage inflation has not been really the contributor that it once was or the
01:59fear that it once was coming out of the dislocations of COVID.
02:02So this is really a continuation of the normalization story and really nothing to look at here in terms of
02:09is this where the threat from inflation is coming from?
02:12And you really look at it, and you guys talked about this earlier, it's really on the shock in terms
02:17of the pass through from the energy shock.
02:18That's the marginal change this year that has moved us from a discussion on continuation of cuts at the beginning
02:25of the year to hikes because of the pass through of headline inflation into core inflation and those concerns.
02:30that I've put my license here and there is no longer because of that.
02:31And so we're going to go out on track to a smooth one.
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