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00:00With us now is a friend of mine from a few years ago, Jim Coventry of Roto-Wire.
00:05Roto-Wire has been generous enough to lend us its talent throughout the football season Friday afternoons,
00:13and that includes Jim, who should know, if he doesn't already from having talked to Adam and Jared,
00:20that Jim, so Bulldog and myself are playing golf tomorrow on the heels of a main event draft
00:26with Adam Krautwurst and Jared Smola, and Bulldog claims to not even know there was a draft
00:31because he's not a fantasy player, really.
00:33But, you know, I guess we rope you in.
00:35I love claims.
00:37Like, you invited me.
00:38You said, do you want to play golf on whatever date, the 5th of September in Rochester?
00:43I'm like, yeah.
00:44That was the invite.
00:45So how was I supposed to know?
00:46I don't know, Jim.
00:47I claimed to know there was a fantasy.
00:48You didn't tell me there was a fantasy draft.
00:49Don't you hear the name Jared Smola and just assume that there's a draft?
00:52Come on.
00:55Jim?
00:56You there?
00:56Is Jim there?
00:57Yes.
00:57Oh, God.
00:58I told you, he's letting you guys chop it up about Jared and the draft.
01:01That was our lead-in.
01:03Sounds like a great time.
01:04That was your intro, Jim.
01:05Get with it, here.
01:06That was your cue.
01:07I love that.
01:08I was waiting for a couple more legs in the story.
01:10It was getting interesting.
01:11But, yeah, good luck in the draft.
01:12A little draft prep, and we're ready to roll.
01:14No, it really was pointless.
01:15It had nowhere to really end.
01:17It probably should have never begun, but that's how we do it.
01:18I just wanted to tell Jim that I was going to see Jared and Adam tomorrow.
01:22Because you know those guys.
01:23And introduce me to both of these men.
01:25I've not met either of them.
01:26Yeah, because you go back with draft sharks, right, Jim?
01:28Yeah, back from 2008 to 2016, and then went over to Rotowire.
01:32But, yeah, it was a great time working through a draft shark.
01:35Just a great group of people.
01:37Great product.
01:37Love those guys.
01:39So, here we go.
01:40I mean, I guess maybe I can't get away with saying any longer that, like,
01:44here's draft season, because it's probably mostly over at this point.
01:47Would that – I mean, there's got to be some action here this weekend.
01:51I think a lot of local leagues are drafting in the days.
01:54Yeah, like, you're smaller.
01:55Plus our thing tomorrow that I just forgot about suddenly.
01:59You know, what has been for you, Jim, like a story or two of the offseason this year that
02:05stands out as you look back on it?
02:07You know, the biggest thing, and this is going to impact real football more than it will impact
02:12fantasy, but it will have a trickle-down effect, is that the usage of extra tight ends is going
02:18to be a thing.
02:19And I remember before the preseason, people were saying, oh, the Rams used three tight
02:23ends 30% of the time.
02:24I go, well, that's true, but it's a lie.
02:26They didn't start until week nine last year, and they were using it 46% to 50% of the
02:31time.
02:31And they used that until they had injuries at the end of the season.
02:34But the point is this.
02:35This year, teams are going to use a second tight end more than ever.
02:39The teams have something that are trying to get a third run on the field.
02:41So what does that mean?
02:42Well, it means one receiver's on the field when you have three tight ends.
02:46So you're going to see less wide receiver snaps.
02:49Puken Takua was down to 62% of the snaps while they were playing those sets.
02:54So this is going to have a trickle-down effect that nobody really sees coming.
02:57The slot position is dying out fast.
03:00Slot snaps were at all-time low.
03:03So the way we watch football is going to be very different, and the impact on fantasy football,
03:07we're going to see more tight ends than ever have some production, and maybe in deeper
03:13leagues it's worth drafting some of those later tight ends and flexing them instead of
03:18a moderate wide receiver.
03:19How much, if at all, do you think that impacts the top tight ends?
03:24Like, because there's three of them on the field.
03:27I mean, I guess a guy like Bowers is going to get whatever he's going to get.
03:31Like, he's going to be a target and, you know, really the center of the passing offense,
03:34I would assume.
03:35But it makes sense to me that if there's extra tight ends, that they'll get targets, and
03:41maybe the main guy that you're counting on and drafting the earliest might get penalized
03:46for that.
03:47So typically in the three tight ends, one is a blocker.
03:50At most, he'll leak out for a screen pass to have a little threat there, but he won't
03:54be designed.
03:55The second tight end is an in-betweener.
03:57He can block.
03:58He can go out for routes.
03:59So I think that one replaces the slot receiver.
04:03So some of the slot production, that'll replace that.
04:05But a lead tight end who's already a receiver that we've seen, those roles are pretty secure
04:11because their snaps actually go up.
04:14But I think, again, those secondary targets just don't go to a wide receiver.
04:17The secondary targets go to an extra tight end, which raises those secondary tight ends.
04:22But I think the primary ones, their roles are largely unchanged.
04:26Jim, if you don't mind, while we're here, let's pivot to the Bills, and they're a team
04:30that loves their three tight ends.
04:32Jackson Hawes was primarily that blocking tight end last year, only caught 16 passes.
04:38Knox caught 36.
04:39Kincaid caught 39.
04:41Obviously, they're looking, I would think, to get Kincaid more into the 70s.
04:46I think the other guys maybe stay about where they are.
04:49What are you doing with Kincaid this year?
04:51Because it's been a pretty smooth summer for him, which is not something you could say the
04:57last two summers.
04:58Right, and as well as your market knows this, back in May, the team was talking about limiting
05:04Kincaid's ref.
05:04They've gone off of that completely now.
05:06Now it's like he's healthier.
05:07Now, what does that mean?
05:08Because there were games he was seeing 35% of the snaps.
05:12Like you said, injury maintenance for sure.
05:14So now are we talking 55 or 60?
05:17And I don't know if it gets higher than that, but it's huge if he does.
05:21Because one out of three catches for Dalton Kincaid were for at least 20 yards last year.
05:26That's how dynamic he is.
05:28And he is a skeleton key for offenses.
05:31So, yes, him increasing that role in being healthy, it elevates the offense.
05:36But I'm going to segue off for a minute.
05:38I can't speak enough of D.J. Moore.
05:41And I don't know how your Buffalo fans are feeling about D.J. Moore, but I think he could
05:45not be in a better spot.
05:47Last year in Chicago, he was playing under Ben Johnson.
05:50And Ben Johnson didn't use him.
05:5285 targets.
05:53And I tried to figure out why.
05:54And then I realized it.
05:56Ben Johnson wasn't a precise route runner.
05:59You are on this blade of grass at this second.
06:01Well, that's not D.J. Moore's game.
06:03He's open every play, but he's more freelance.
06:06Talk about a perfect fit with Josh Allen.
06:09Does Josh Allen really care if you're on this blade of grass at the time?
06:12And if a play breaks down and Josh Allen is running around the back of D.J. Moore is
06:16getting vertical, diagonal.
06:18This is going, Buffalo fans, you are going to love D.J. Moore.
06:22And he is going to have an insanely good season for you.
06:26I've liked this take.
06:27I've heard you make it on your shows.
06:29And really, D.J. Moore, for me in my head, is a ping pong match where you have, I mean,
06:33there are a lot of naysayers when it comes to this player.
06:35His age, Scott Barrett, for one, namely, is like, yeah, I think he's washed.
06:40Maybe not.
06:41I mean, we don't know.
06:42But, you know, it's kind of been a really interesting back.
06:44And one of the more interesting players in fantasy this year for this is D.J.
06:47Moore, I would say, because, I mean, all those guys in the first round, mostly, unless it's
06:53like McCaffrey, because of his age, is pretty much, you know, a straight line.
06:58Everybody loves them.
06:59It's just a matter of ranking them.
07:00And, you know, James Cook, Jim, is in that class.
07:03I mean, he's a first-round pick or early second at the latest this year.
07:07Are you on board?
07:08Yeah, James Cook is one of the safest running backs.
07:11Obviously, you're going first and second pick, Bajon and Gibbs in any order you like them.
07:15But after that, you could really make a case that the next running back should be taken
07:20after a few wide receivers.
07:21And it might be James Cook.
07:22Because, like you said, McCaffrey, age, his rushing ability declined.
07:27He had 100 catches.
07:28But all that work, and now he's older.
07:31Jonathan Taylor fell to 3.3 yards of carry in the game's Daniel Jones missed.
07:35He's coming back from an Achilles.
07:37And he always misses at least five games a year.
07:40James Cook is just sitting there.
07:41And it's like, you know what?
07:43He got paid last year.
07:44He finally got the 300 touches.
07:46Even though they lost David Edwards, the left guard, this is still a really good offensive line.
07:51And so James Cook is as safe as they come once you get past about six picks in your draft.
07:57Yeah, and add into that that he's not a guy that gets hit square a lot.
08:00Like, I can't recall him taking a huge hit.
08:03I mean, I'm sure he's gotten hit.
08:04He's a running back.
08:04But, like, he's got that ability to kind of just, I don't know.
08:08It just kind of feels like it misses him.
08:10You know, I can't think of a situation where he got, you know, like Wiley Coyote-ed or anything.
08:15Maybe Denver in the playoffs was the fumble maybe a play like that.
08:18But your point is valid.
08:19I'm not trying to pick at it by saying that.
08:21I'm just thinking of that as you're talking.
08:24So you want to go as high.
08:26And you're Robinson over Gibbs, I think.
08:28You want to go as high as RB3 for Cook?
08:32So, full disclosure.
08:34In a 12-team league, O'Marrion Hampton goes about pick 15.
08:38And if I'm picking about pick 10 or so, I can play chicken on Hampton.
08:43And I can think I could, in many drafts, I'll get Cook at 10.
08:46Sometimes he'll fall, sometimes he won't.
08:48And so, if I can get Cook and then coming back around, if I can get Hampton.
08:52I have Hampton actually ahead in terms of what I think he'll score.
08:56But because of the draft strategy that I think I can get both at the end of the first round
09:00and into the early second round, that's how I tell my listeners to view them.
09:06But I do think Hampton has incredible upside.
09:09Hampton was actually an outstanding outside runner last year with no blocking,
09:13coming off a broken ankle, and he is in like the mother of all systems for him
09:18in Los Angeles now with Mike McDaniel.
09:21So, I do think that Cook will finish as a running back four.
09:24But as I said, depending where you're drafting, I would draft him as a running back three.
09:28Sounds weird.
09:28I hope you get the logic on that.
09:31I do, for sure.
09:32And you also have in there Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker,
09:37and Devon H.N. as well, popular picks in that same range.
09:40Until recently, and maybe this is still mostly true, but so was Ashton Gentry.
09:45But now you've got some concern over his health going into the opener.
09:50I don't know, Jim.
09:51Like, I'm not worried about it.
09:53But if you draft a lot, this time of year is kind of fun because you see,
09:57I mean, Gentry went into the third round last night in one draft I was watching.
10:01You get that sort of sometimes, not always, but sometimes overreaction to injury news.
10:07You're right, and the news has not been definitive.
10:10But every key lead you get is saying it's a low ankle sprain, which means he's going to be fine.
10:15Those don't linger once they heal.
10:17So, if that's the case, we're looking at a player we were taking in the first round before the injury.
10:23And I know Mike Washington had a great preseason, and so I think maybe some people are worried now
10:28this is more of a timeshare.
10:29But in those first two preseason games, half of Mike Washington's runs were useless.
10:34They were negative to positive two yards, which keeps the offense off schedule.
10:38So, if he's going to be a boomer bus runner, he's not going to get this massive workload.
10:43Gentry's going to be the guy because Gentry not only will give them the big plays,
10:47but he'll keep them on schedule.
10:48So, Gentry is a screaming steal in drafts because people just have made up these narratives,
10:53and they're following them.
10:55And I just don't think there's a lot of merit behind burying Gentry on a low ankle sprain.
10:59So, with Jim Coventry of Roto-Wire, Mike Shope and the Bulldog here on WGR.
11:04His name has already come up here, but just what do you think of Walker in Kansas City?
11:10Like, because we've seen the Bills morph into this run-heavy team,
11:14and Cook led the league in rushing last year.
11:16The Chiefs with Mahomes, you know, coming off an injury,
11:20and they had nothing for a run game last year.
11:24I could see them getting into, like, the idea of, like, okay, let's become more like a 50-50 thing
11:30here
11:31because they now have a real stud back there.
11:34You might be right on that.
11:36And I still think Andy Reid, how much is Andy Reid going to change his stripes?
11:41Yeah, they're going to run some, and he has had LaShawn McCoy in the past,
11:44and they've had a dynamic game.
11:46I think Walker is the most interesting player in the first two rounds of your drafts
11:50because, in theory, if it works out in Kansas City and he catches the ball,
11:54and that's what they're talking about.
11:56Now, in 2024 and only 11 games, Walker had 46 catches.
12:01If that's the pace he gets in Kansas City, four catches a game,
12:04he is going to come close to helping you win your league.
12:07But here's the problem.
12:09In his time in Seattle, he could never separate Kenneth Walker from Zach Charbonnet.
12:15Charbonnet got half of the work because Walker never proved to be able to move the offense on schedule.
12:20Yeah, the big plays are great.
12:22I don't use this number to statistic frequently, but I think it's important.
12:25Kenneth Walker had what we call a 25 percentile success rate last year.
12:29What that means is he has so many runs that are of 0, 1, or negative yards.
12:35The offense is in a hole because what he does is he dances around looking for a hole,
12:40and if the hole doesn't develop, instead of taking the two or three or four yards
12:43that he would have gotten by running straight, he all of a sudden puts the team in a hole.
12:47And I think when Andy Reid, unless they could get him, Walker, to change his game
12:51and get immediately downhill, I think it's going to get really frustrating for the coaching staff,
12:56and they're going to probably end up doing what Seattle did,
12:59putting Walker in a timeshare they didn't expect.
13:01You make a really good point about Reid.
13:03Going back to his time in Philadelphia, I feel like I remember he can't help himself.
13:07He's just got to throw.
13:08He's got to throw.
13:09He's got to throw.
13:10And at the time, that was held against him because Philly, you know,
13:15the NFC Championships, they could never get there and close the deal.
13:18Now that he's won in Kansas City, it's just sort of like, you know, he's exalted genius man.
13:23So we'll see where that goes.
13:27With Jim Coventry of Roto-Wire, for all the drafts I've done, maybe it's around 100 this year.
13:34Last year was more, by the way, before you go make a face, Bulldog.
13:37So I've cut back.
13:39I don't think I've seen a single one where Josh Allen wasn't the first quarterback.
13:42There really is just like no debate about that.
13:44And sometimes it's like three rounds or even four rounds later where the second one goes.
13:49How do you feel about that, Jim?
13:50I mean, I don't think it's worth debating whether he should be quarterback one because it seems unanimous.
13:56But I never get him almost because, like, I just don't want to pay the price if I can get,
14:00you know, close to the same kind of quarterback production a few rounds later.
14:05You're exactly correct.
14:06And what happens is when you're in these leagues and you draft Allen in the third round,
14:11all of a sudden you find yourself chasing at running back or wide receiver because you missed out on one
14:15of the premium ones.
14:16And I would rather chase at quarterback because I have options.
14:22I have a lot of options later that I like.
14:24Yeah, Allen is the linchpin number one.
14:26But at what cost, like you said, and I know a lot of people have been successful drafting a quarterback
14:31early.
14:31I just never feel my roster is good if I try that approach.
14:35And so I just don't do it.
14:37Now, Lamar Jackson, who you brought up, a three-round value because he was hurt last year, a hamstring,
14:44which he's never been a guy with soft tissue injuries.
14:46So that ended up becoming knee, toe, foot injuries because he was limping around on a bad hamstring.
14:53So a three-round value, if Lamar Jackson is falling into the sixth round in your draft, at that point,
15:00that is a value you can't pass up.
15:02I think, Dwight, I hope I have this right, and I'd like to put this in front of Bulldog too.
15:07I think if I were to ask you your favorite quarterback pick this year, it's Kyler Murray, isn't it?
15:12It is.
15:13With Kevin O'Connell, and I'm going to point out a couple things for you.
15:17First of all, Sam Darnold, who we left for being a non-factor ever in football because he was not
15:23good for many years,
15:24he goes into Minnesota with Kevin O'Connell's offense, and he throws for 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns.
15:31It was, I'm sorry, Sam Darnold won the Super Bowl, give him credit, but it was Kevin O'Connell.
15:36The offensive tackles were great.
15:38The receivers were great.
15:39The scheme, the plays were great.
15:40Like, Kyler Murray is far better than Sam Darnold ever was walking in here.
15:45He was a league average quarterback, but everybody forgets that.
15:49And the durability, he had an ACL that cost him parts of two seasons, so he penalized him twice for
15:54the same injury.
15:55Kyler Murray has been, like I said, an average quarterback who played in a horrible Arizona system.
16:00Bad offensive lines.
16:02Cliff Kingsbury was the most predictable offense until Kingsbury improved in his next job.
16:06So, in my mind, if Kyler Murray is an average quarterback, even that, he has Jefferson, Addison, Hawkinson, an offensive
16:14line, and he can run.
16:16I don't see how this goes wrong.
16:19So, Jim, Josh Jacobs, on whatever day it was, last Sunday, I think is when I heard, driving back from
16:26Louisville, was commissioner's exempt list, and then everybody just decided that's that for Josh Jacobs.
16:32He doesn't have a court date until November.
16:33However, now today, they announced that that court date is moved up two months, even before they open.
16:40He'll be, you know, in court.
16:42I guess that's the plan anyway.
16:44So, how have you ridden this ride with him?
16:48So, yes.
16:49So, my initial take when it was the November court date was he would remain on the exempt list until
16:55his court date.
16:55Now, that was an initial court date.
16:57That's only not the date things get done.
16:59We talked to Drew Davenport, a great friend who's a lawyer and understands this stuff, and he said the case
17:04would go on past that.
17:05So, at that point, I'm like, well, don't draft Jacobs because you're probably not going to have him because if
17:10they give him a suspension, because the exempt list was not a suspension.
17:13It's paid.
17:14But then once they settle the court case, he could get the minimum six games, and you're looking season over.
17:20But now, the fact the court date is September 10th or 11th, they just got a new post from Adam
17:25Schefter that said either of those dates.
17:26So, the point becomes this.
17:29That had to be driven by Jacobs' legal team.
17:33They are the ones that had to get the court date pushed up because there's no way the legal system
17:37is doing that on their own.
17:38They had no reason to.
17:39So, my guess is they may.
17:41This is fully a guess on my part.
17:43The legal team is probably going to try to get the case settled quickly.
17:47And then if it gets settled right away, and if the league, they're hoping the league isn't just the six
17:52games.
17:53If that happens, even if it's eight games, you could get Jacobs for close to half the season.
17:58And in that case, now I think once you're into drafting the handcuffed running backs, I think you're drafting Jacobs
18:06just above those.
18:06Because if you've got a half a season with fresh legs out of him, I think at that point, it
18:11would be way worth it.
18:12You just have to get there.
18:14You can't afford to have a team where you have enough injuries and you can't hold on to them.
18:19Any player who's injured like that, you've got to be hopeful that you can make it that long into the
18:24season.
18:25Jim, one player whose opinion I'm not sure I know of in terms of what you think, Dijon Stribling.
18:33Another exciting player to talk about, argue about this summer, a San Francisco rookie.
18:37Many thought overdrafted, but then he shows up in camp and preseason and is making waves.
18:43They lose Ricky Pearsall.
18:44Evans is hurt.
18:45It's always the way with San Francisco.
18:47How high is too high for him?
18:50So, he is going about 90-ish picks in the draft.
18:54So, he's, you know, in the 12-team league, he's going in the 8th-ish round.
18:58And I think that that's a fair price.
19:00But here's what I'm saying.
19:02I was drafting Stribling in July before Pearsall got hurt, before training camp started.
19:07And my whole case was this.
19:08I said, Stribling is exactly, if you cooked up in a lab, what a Kyle Shanahan receiver would be.
19:14Big, super fast, can block, and can run with the ball in his hands.
19:18All those are, like, exactly what they need.
19:20And that's why they used the 33rd pick traded up to get him in that spot.
19:24So, he is a clear fit.
19:25I remember when they drafted Brandon Ayuk years back.
19:28Before everything went crazy, Ayuk was another one of those players that did really well in Shanahan's scheme.
19:32So, I bought into that.
19:33But the bigger picture was this.
19:35Mike Evans is old, and he missed 12 games in the last two years.
19:39And I already said, Father Time has him in a chokehold right now.
19:43And then in camp, he's missing time.
19:45And then Pearsall goes down.
19:47Stribling is in line to lead this team in receiving.
19:51Because Debo, they already said, is going to be in a part-time role, splitting a position.
19:55Stribling could not be in a better situation.
19:58So, yes, if he is going in the end of the eighth rounds in your draft, and if you really
20:03want him, then in the late seventh, not too early.
20:06Because Kyle Shanahan will get production out of a wide receiver.
20:10There it is, Bulldog.
20:11You got that?
20:11I got it.
20:12I'm making note.
20:13John Stribling.
20:14There's an apostrophe in there somewhere.
20:16Jim, thanks to you and your colleagues at Roto-Wire for being a part of our team this season.
20:20Look forward to talking again.
20:22Thanks, Mike.
20:23Before I go, code WGR at Roto-Wire.com gets 50% off of our subscription.
20:29It's massive.
20:30It's a great deal.
20:31We have all of our draft tools, our rankings to get you set up for winning your league.
20:35But, again, WGR at Roto-Wire.com, 50% off.
20:39You're run by a Buffalo guy, Tim.
20:43Yes, sir.
20:44I've been in touch with him over the years, and I'm a big fan of the Roto-Wire content.
20:49So, very good.
20:49Thanks again, Jim.
20:50Have a good weekend.
20:52Jim Coventry of Roto-Wire with us.
20:55Theo Gremminger, Ian Harditz, Jim Coventry, maybe a couple more of their many analysts will join us over the course
21:01of the season on Friday afternoons.
21:02That's a pretty sweet little deal.
21:03So good.
21:04Half off.
21:05Yeah.
21:06They have all sports, too.
21:07One thing about Roto-Wire versus some of the other sites we have guests on from is this is not
21:13just a football site.
21:14Right.
21:15So you've got hockey coming up.
21:18Sneaky Joe's Dynasty League.
21:19Perhaps you're in that.
21:21You might want a little bit of guidance.
21:22Probably not.
21:23I'm in that.
21:23Not that I wouldn't need guidance, but I'm not in that.
21:26I definitely need the guidance.
21:27I'm not good.
21:27A hockey Dynasty League?
21:29Yeah.
21:30Yeah, no, I'm out.
21:31Yeah.
21:32My portfolio is shrinking.
21:35Evidently.
21:36Let me check.
21:37Hang on.
21:38There's nothing in it.
21:39I've got to refresh my screen here.
21:40I've got one.
21:41And I may even not participate in the draft.
21:45There's nothing in it.
21:45There's nothing in it.
21:45There's nothing in it.
21:45You