- 7 weeks ago
Indian benchmark equity indices extended their losses as elevated Brent crude oil prices approached nearly $100 per barrel, sparking fresh macroeconomic concerns and dragging the Indian rupee lower. The Sensex fell over 500 points towards 75,600, while the Nifty slipped below key support levels around 23,650, heavily impacted by banking, financial, and oil and gas stocks. In contrast, defence stocks rallied after the Defence Ministry approved procurement proposals worth over ₹1.1 lakh crore, with Data Patterns, BEL, HAL, and Paras Defence surging. The primary market also witnessed robust traction with twelve IPOs lined up for the week, alongside the listing pipeline of Arcil and other niche offerings. In other sectoral trends, copper and cable stocks buzzed following record commodity prices, whereas NBFCs expanded strategies in gold financing amid price volatility.
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NewsTranscript
00:07good afternoon dear viewers you're watching the business today show with me sakshi batra this is
00:11where i get you all the stock market closing action on the lull street but first up let's
00:15take a look at what's hot in the corporate and the financial world at the last half an hour of
00:19trade
00:23markets extend losses as elevated crude oil prices again come into as a concern over federal
00:29reserve rate hike and also this is weighing on the sentiment sensex has fallen over 500 points now to
00:36trade near 75 600 while the nifty has also slipped 140 points to now trade around 23 650 mark banks
00:45financials oil and gas however have led the losses
00:52defense stocks rally after the defense ministry has cleared purchases over 1.1 lakh crore
00:59rupees with 98 percent of the acquisitions from domestic players data patterns leads the gains
01:04with seven percent rally while bel hal and paris defense also surge
01:13copper and cable stocks are buzzing in trade with hindustan copper now up four percent and
01:18finolex cable surging up to six percent as copper has hit a record high level amid the tight supply
01:24and strong demand
01:31esds software has shed skyrocketed nearly 200 percent from the ipo price in just three sessions of trade
01:38extending the post-listing rally for the third straight session the stock is surged 20 percent
01:43today to now hit a level of 1300 against its ipo price of 429 rupees
01:54singapore government backed singapore airlines overseas push including its investment in the loss making air india
02:00the airline now owns 25.1 percent of air india which is now seeking around 1.1 billion dollars in
02:06fresh funding from its owners
02:17starting off with the big breaking news on the oil prices viewers this is as far as the brent crude
02:21is
02:22concerned crude oil prices have extended their gains now brent crude prices have neared
02:26now a hundred dollars per barrel you can see ninety nine dollars breaching now in trade brent crude prices
02:32have surged over two percent and within that we have also seen an impact on the indian rupee the
02:37rupee has slipped further 25 paise and now has hit the day's low level the nifty is also looking at
02:42hitting that one month low on the expiry session as well all to do with the brent crude prices
02:48suddenly surging yet again let's now welcome our guest on board we have ambarish baleka market analyst
02:54joining in to share with us a fresh take on the street welcome to you ambarish good to have you
02:58with us
02:58as always what do you make of this sharp spike in the crude oil prices again nearing hundred dollars a
03:05barrel this is raising fresh concerns taking us back to those uncertain times that the markets have
03:11just come off from as well months of uncertainty on the crude oil prices how are you looking at uh
03:17what the investors should keep note of now uh ground is actually uh i think uh clearly the west asia
03:23issue continues to dock the market and uh like you said the crude is inching i mean closer to 100
03:30i think
03:3095 was what was discovered by the markets earlier but now closer to 100 is clearly affecting the sentiment
03:36uh it'll also have an effect on the rupee uh which we have seen declining today i mean although we
03:42have
03:42seen a very good gain in rupee in the past few days thanks to the record fcnr flows uh but
03:48then
03:49at the same time rbi also has sucked out that excess liquidity so that is also a bit concerning
03:54we are also talking of rate hikes uh going ahead uh so that is another concern um uh which is
04:00uh keeping
04:01that uh i mean lid on the markets and uh at the same time we have seen if i is
04:05pulling out i mean uh
04:07in the like in the first of four trading days of september they have pulled out nearly 7500 flows
04:11although i mean yesterday there was um like a small amount of buying but then if you look at year
04:17to date fis have uh taken out close to about 2 lakh 32 thousand flows and along with this now
04:24we are
04:25seeing a huge rush for ipos i think that will also drain out a decent amount of liquidity going ahead
04:30especially the nsc ipo uh so i think this is what uh is concerning uh the market players i mean
04:37quite a few of them are just uh like sitting on the sidelines just to see as to where it
04:42goes because
04:42markets are today below those support levels i mean 24 000 was a very good support level for nifty
04:48it broke that then you had a technically you had a band of 23 700 as a good support i
04:56mean that's been
04:56broken today so looks like uh we will continue uh moving lower may not be a crash but i think
05:03we will continuously move lower at least for a while longer we might be lower for a little while from
05:10now because the ipo market is a buzz with a lot of interest from the investors money is moving out
05:17from the secondary markets into the primary markets as well in fact this week alone we have 12 ipos that
05:23are opening up and tomorrow being a historic day we are going to be seeing six ipos open in together
05:29um you know almost three decades of a record that is being seen for the index uh how are you
05:34looking
05:34at um barish the entire ipo space um you know there are so many different uh sectors from which the
05:41ipos
05:41are coming in right from data centers to all the way uh rental furniture space so many different
05:47varieties and on a single day we have five six ipos to track as well difficult for uh investors to
05:54really decide where to put the money because there is not an unlimited amount of money available with
05:59the retail investors at large but are there any specific ipos that you have looked at closely and
06:04you may prefer no uh in fact i'm looking at those niche ipos you know rent uh rental mojo is
06:11a
06:11niche space asset reconstruction again uh if i'm not wrong uh this is the first ipo from that space
06:19and uh money pal payment i think is the other one uh i mean from a niche sector so i
06:24would be looking
06:25at uh these uh i mean ipos uh to subscribe for don't know whether you'll get the allotment because
06:31uh the amount of oversubstration is so high because of the liquidity factor right now
06:36but the same liquidity like i said uh should get sucked out and this will be soon maybe over the
06:41next two weeks okay in fact you're talking about our sale asset reconstruction company 733 cross ipo
06:48that opens tomorrow in fact this is an entirely offer for sale but the management says that is it is
06:53only a calibrated dilution for the stakeholders that are partially exiting with the promoters still
06:59going to be retaining about 78 percent post the listing the company is also pointed out to a strong
07:0465 percent capital adequacy ratio and low leverage uh so the key question that we had put out to the
07:10management was that how does our sale plan to fund its next phase of growth let's hear it from the
07:15management this is a completely ofs this is a small calibrated dilution uh by the promoters we have
07:23two promoters avenue resurgent and sbi together pre-ipo they hold close to 90 percent of the
07:33equity post ipo they will still be holding a whopping 78 percent of the equity so i think that is
07:41uh
07:41really a minor dilution again i think what is important in this is that we will be the first
07:47arc to list and providing an insight into the arc industry so as to enable a critical part of the
07:56lending ecosystem on top of it our capital adequacy at this moment is at 65 close to 65 percent against
08:05a rbi minimum requirement of 15 percent our debt equity ratio at 0.4 is amongst the lowest amongst
08:13the large arcs and we also have a fair bit of you know of our aum which keeps coming back
08:21as we do
08:22recoveries over the last three years it's been between 22 to 25 percent of our aum beginning of
08:28the year aum actually comes back as recoveries through the year between these three we believe
08:34that we have enough liquidity and capital for the immediate growth future and this listing actually
08:42allows us to be able to in future look at various options all right so you heard it from the
08:49management
08:49of arsil what are they going to be focusing on the first a irc to list and of course to
08:53lead the
08:54path as to understand how the stressed assets companies are really looking at the growth
09:00opportunities going forward the management also did highlight that ibc establishment has been a welcome
09:06move for companies which are in the asset reconstruction space and they continue to give them
09:11broader opportunities to look at acquiring stressed assets let's actually shift focus to the secondary
09:16markets yet again and try to understand where the buzz is we were talking about the defense space at
09:22large of course the index is higher by two and a half percent today with a lot of the stocks
09:27moving up
09:28on the buoyant news flow that has come in defense acquisition council approving over one lakh crore
09:34rupees of acquisitions ambarish your sense on the defense story they keep on buzzing with the kind of
09:40government focus that has been enhancing in this space but is there enough even despite the kind of
09:45valuation that they currently operate on uh see i mean uh most of the stocks are putting in decently
09:51high evaluations and this is i mean thanks to the sort of auto flows which i've seen record auto
09:57auto flows if you look at the last three to four years in addition uh clearly government focuses on
10:02this space but i would still look at the shipbuilding space like a shipyard or a mazagon or even a
10:16garden
10:17wheel i think that these are the ones where the valuations uh i mean from my point of view are
10:22still
10:22decent so there can be a decent update from where we are okay let's also talk about some of the
10:29other
10:29buzzing spaces as well um you know metal space specifically copper uh you know has been in
10:35focus because copper prices have yet again hit record high levels so hint copper is again in focus
10:40with almost a five percent uptick there we're also looking at the cables and the wire segment showing us
10:45some kind of an uptick on the pricing pressure that they may now look at exploring uh you how would
10:50you
10:50look at the copper prices metal story developing right now i mean uh see uh like like this is a
10:57phase
10:58uh so yes i think uh we should go with the up cycle but it will be more of a
11:03trading bet than an
11:04investment uh buy time so something like a uh like condition copper can possibly go up another 10 percent
11:11more from here uh but then we should always remember that the copper has been lagging uh with the copper
11:17prices the way copper prices have moved up and how some copper has moved up uh so you don't expect
11:23it to move in like it would make it the same percentage that the copper prices so i'm looking
11:29at possibly as a 10 to 12 percent more for this on copper use that as a trading opportunity and
11:34possibly book out post that when it comes to wires and cables i think it's a double rammy for this
11:40sector
11:41one is because of ultratex entry uh with ultra volt into the cable uh and wire business i think uh
11:50uh but this this could disrupt the way the paints business was disrupted by bill of course i mean
11:56asian paints is still yeah i mean like uh so you could actually have uh most of the leaders in
12:02this
12:03space underperforming at least over the next year and a half too and as compared to paints i think
12:08ultra volt also has one more advantage is the advantage of the supply chain both copper and
12:13aluminum are i mean in-house as far as the pillar group is concerned uh so i think this is
12:19something
12:19okay let's shift focus viewers and talk about gst remember last year in september was when the rate
12:28gst rate rationalization took place that brought the entire focus on the auto space with huge cuts
12:34coming in and we saw many discounts across the board from various car makers that led to the entire
12:41sector buzzing in action this time around it was expected that the gst council will meet in september
12:48and could probably relook at how smartphone gst rates are you know leading to some kind of a demand
12:56impact as well but this time around we're again hearing that the 57 gst council meeting that was earlier
13:02scheduled for september 12th has now been rescheduled to now october 7th in new delhi a broad based rate
13:08cut may not be on the cards but some product specific proposals could actually come up let me go across
13:13to my colleague karishma sudhani has been tracking this with more details um karishma do you think
13:19this time around if not in september at least in october we'll get the good news on smartphones
13:25um it looks unlikely that a final decision could be taken in october because uh the center is of the
13:32opinion that currently it's important to not meddle with the state of economy because we have taken a
13:38lot of external shocks early this year uh hence a cut could not be on the cards but definitely a
13:46discussion
13:46on the cards not just on uh mobile phone but a host of other uh items within the summit has
13:52also said
13:53that they may go for a re-racialization at least when it comes to the customer aspects of it so
13:59some proposals could be raised but but uh no major broadly uh cuts could come in as a part of
14:06this
14:07announcement the government also wants to speak the center also wants to speak to all the states and
14:12understand how the past uh 12 odd months have been for them with the uh the rate rationalization
14:19exercise because the numbers do speak strongly for them they're about almost average two lakh crore
14:25each month but states always have a different story to share so that will be interesting together
14:31absolutely thanks a lot uh karishma for getting us those details and uh let's also shift gears to talk
14:37about how um you know commodity space is shaping up the decisions for many companies um we're talking
14:44about precious metals such as gold and how gold loans is being seen as a promising opportunity on which
14:51nbfcs are betting big we're talking about lnt finance that's looking to significantly scale up its gold loan
14:57business targeting 50 to 60 percent of the loan growth in this segment as it expands its branch network
15:04over the next four to five years the company also aims to eventually have gold financing contribute at
15:09least 10 percent of the consolidated aum i earlier spoke to rajudotti who is the whole time director
15:15and coo of lnt finance to understand the growth strategy and the outlook on gold loan business for the company
15:24so i would really not like to leave aside the point of the gold prices because a certain amount of
15:31the growth that we have seen in the gold financing market is prepared by the uh gold prices in the
15:38recent past
15:38we saw in the month of march of 26 the gold prices should almost in excess of 1.75 lakhs
15:46per 10 grams
15:47and then it moderated below somewhere around 1.3 lakhs as we speak it has again crossed uh beyond 1
15:54.5 lakhs
15:55i think it would be foolhardy to really uh keep your business strategy on the basis of gold loan prices
16:02because it is largely driven by the uh geopolitical angles and many other economic considerations what we
16:08would like to focus on is to get into the segment where the formalization of credit is a possibility what
16:16i mean by that as we speak we have close to 25 000 plus tonnage of gold with the household
16:25if you look
16:27at the 18.5 or lakh crore of the golden market with the formal segments when i say formal segment
16:35i would
16:35consider in that these banks uh the specialized gold finance nbfc's and the diversified nbfc's which have
16:43fallen into the gold finance market including ourselves we are actually having a close to on
16:48the basis of the today's gold loan prices the back of the envelope calculation for me would be around
16:53eight percent of the gold tonnage is monetized in the former credit system with increased branches
17:00500 branches every year going in the corridor of 2500 to 3000 branches one can expect a loan growth of
17:10almost 50 to 60 percent just in gold segment but as you know that we are also present in many
17:18other
17:18products so the overall composition of the gold finance business at the end of let's say three or
17:24five year period will largely be driven on the basis of what is going to be the growth of many
17:29other
17:29products but i wouldn't be surprised that in considerable future our endeavor would be to have gold financing
17:37uh having at least 10 percent of the AUM at the consolidated lnd finance level that is the one
17:46big level number i would try to give let me go across to ambarish once again and try and understand
17:53how is he gauging this entire gold loan opportunity uh from the likes of nbfc's and banks as they are
18:01stepping up uh their efforts to grab more share uh at this uptick that we've been looking at ambarish
18:08how do you see do you see this market growing um from where it is currently and does it have
18:13a lot
18:14of room for banks and nbfc's to compete to gain market share and how would you look at players such
18:19as lnt finance that so far have a very insignificant contribution uh even with the acquisitions that
18:25they've done about 4 000 odd cross but they're hoping to increase it by 10 percent uh to up to
18:3010 percent of the overall AUM how would you look at uh this entire space i mean i would be
18:37a bit cautious
18:37of this case i mean no doubt uh gold prices going up really has given a major uh for the
18:44space and uh
18:46again if you look a bit deeper i mean like the sort of a growth which we have seen also
18:51comes from
18:52huge amount of profits which are happening i mean those people who had taken a loan loan earlier when
18:57the gold prices were lower are taking more loan on on the same uh uh commodity which they have already
19:03deposited with uh said mbfc uh so with that playing the risk i mean everything is fine as long as
19:11the
19:11gold prices keep moving up but then if you look at the history uh of the gold price movement i
19:16mean over
19:17the last century also to look at after a move like this a stupendous move which you've seen
19:21uh in the past year or so after a move like this we do see a decent correction possibly doesn't
19:27go
19:28back to where it started from but the correction also is a decently deep and that also continues
19:34for a while so when that happens what happens to all the loans and especially the topics which
19:39they're given i think that would be at risk and already we have large number of new entrants in this
19:46case and the growth that came about two or three years back also made it great uh it could be
19:51a bit
19:51late uh from for lnt but then look at the sort of deep pockets that they have yes i think
19:57uh they
19:58could be successful but like i said everything depends on the gold prices if they start correcting for
20:04whatever reason i think uh it would be a bit difficult to handle uh uh like the lnt in this
20:11case absolutely so that is the clear watch gold prices if they start to correct sharply that's
20:17where we will have to watch out for how these companies hedge uh the kind of impact that they
20:22will see because they are in a growing market and are looking to tap uh this space but in case
20:27for some
20:28reason the market's correct in terms of gold prices then it will be have to be watched as
20:32to what will be the impact there but let's uh quickly look at the markets yet again now three
20:36minutes to go ambarish if there is anything uh you know in the markets that is giving you
20:42more red flags than the others which pockets would those be uh red flags uh not too many as such
20:51at
20:51this point of time because again i'm looking at opportunities uh to buy uh especially when the
20:56markets are currently in this so i will show you look at opportunities in the specialty chemical
21:02space uh which anyway i've been quite bullish on what pockets would those be i mean again something
21:08like archim chemicals which is a leader in uh provide and industrial salt so that one one company
21:15i'm looking at the other one is where is the organics uh which in uh is a global leader in
21:21the
21:21society chemical space which they are in uh which is called atbs as well as isometrial benzene i mean
21:28they have a huge market share 70 percent market share in ibv and about 80 market share in atbs
21:36i'm looking at leaders in the society okay and what about the buzzing pharma space are you still looking
21:45at that uh you know with confidence that it can continue to move up or is caution now setting in
21:50after the substantial move that we've seen in pharma no in fact in pharma i mean like like one of
21:57the
21:57stocks i would show you look at is workart where i think after years of other performance um i mean
22:03we
22:03should we should see a good outperformance going ahead uh the way their business is planning out and uh the
22:11other one we have looked at uh is whooping uh which i mean unlike the other pharma stocks has
22:16started recently in the last two to three months from two and a half thousand to over 200 levels
22:21i think that this offers an opportunity so i would look to buy at the correct okay fair point let's
22:28quickly look at how the markets are shut in shop viewers uh we are nearing 330 but of course we
22:33will
22:34continue to see the prices settled in some minutes from now uh the nifty is likely to close about 0
22:39.6
22:39percent lower at 23 635 uh with you can see clearly um sectors such as banking space the nifty bank
22:48about half out percent lower it names about 0.4 percent of a cut is being shown you can see
22:54real
22:54estate tracking oil and gas also down by 0.6 percent private banks are the top most losers in terms
23:01of
23:02the sectoral drags about one percent of a cut can be seen here but pharma is continuing to move up
23:08about
23:080.8 percent fmcg auto and some gains in the broader markets mid and small caps is what you can
23:14see
23:14among the sectors on the nifty bel after the defense move remains the top mover on gc follows next after
23:23the spike in the crude oil prices as an upstream maker of crude oil you can see hindustan unilever
23:29isha motors adani ports are some of the other stocks that have moved up in tandem but banks like
23:34icica access htfc have all declined um reliance industries as a big heavy weight has also dragged
23:41about 1.3 percent lower ultra tech cement is seeing some cuts again about one percent of an
23:47impact being seen on the news flows that we've seen around ultra tech cement maruti suzuki also
23:53down by about one odd percent in the session but time to take your questions now with ambarish
23:57amarish we have some queries coming in from our viewers we'll first take pradeep jen's question from
24:02kanpur who says that i'm sitting on profits in defense stocks should i continue to hold on or is
24:07it the time to book some profits well i would say as of now continue hold on because there is
24:14really
24:14interest in this case so the momentum is there but again depends on because the specific stocks you hold
24:20uh so yeah i mean uh is it still worth investing in seafood stocks at the current levels
24:39uh yes i think uh you could look at investing in seafood stocks because uh what's the sort of uh
24:45uh issue which we had after after that that that is i announced a number of these companies have
24:52for new geographies uh to i mean market their products so i think that's the positive in the
24:59longer run so seafood yes i think okay we'll also take another query from sunita kashyapsh is from
25:07bhopal and asks you if i'm a long-term investor uh within uh the jewelry space stocks or gold finance
25:13stocks
25:14stocks what would you advise as a good investment team at the current valuations and ahead of the
25:19festive season i'll see i mean a safe buy out here which has been there for a very long time
25:24is
25:24titan so i think that's one stock which you can just buy gold and possibly forget for a while although
25:30i don't suggest forgetting a stock but this is one which is an effort to forget at least okay so
25:36titan
25:36is a good bet in case you're looking at betting on the jewelry space so that is one outstanding stock
25:42that you can definitely look at as well but i'm grish we'll thank you then on being for being on
25:47the
25:47show and for advising all our viewers there and giving us a sense of where to look for opportunities
25:52in the markets always a pleasure thanks a lot for your time uh viewers in case you too have any
25:57questions about your investments in stock markets in mutual funds your sips or stocks related queries
26:02uh or gold related questions then you can send us or your questions on the number that's flashing on
26:07your screens with that it's a wrap on the business today show right here we'll wrap it out
26:11right now but we'll be back to track the markets tomorrow morning at 9 0 5 a.m