00:01The political earthquake in Saxony-Anhalt has sent shockwaves far beyond this eastern German
00:07state. The historic victory for the far-right AFD doesn't just redraw the political map in that
00:13state, it also puts enormous pressure on Germany's mainstream parties, challenge the political
00:19firewall against cooperation with the far-right, and raises new questions about the country's
00:25democratic resilience. For more on this, I'm joined now by Nikola Spohn, political scientist at Otto von
00:32Gehrigke University in Magdeburg in Saxony-Anhalt. So, how big a political earthquake is this result
00:40for Saxony-Anhalt and for Germany as a whole? Yeah, first of all, it really is a historic victory
00:48for the AFD, and it is an earthquake for the rest of the parties. And it should be noted that
00:52the AFD
00:52is a clear winner of this election. So, there's, to be honest, no real option for a government
00:57without the AFD. The only alternative would be a coalition in Saxony-Anhalt of the CDU and
01:03SPD supported by the left parties and the BSW, and this scenario is almost impossible since,
01:09first, they hold completely different positions, and second, the BSW has clearly stated that it
01:17would not support the CDU prime minister. So, at this point, we have to accept that the AFD received
01:23the mandate to form a government here in Saxony-Anhalt. So, this vote, was this a vote for the AFD
01:30or against
01:31the political establishment? Yeah, I often heard those questions in the last days, especially asked for media
01:38outlets outside of Germany, and it usually applies two things. Are these protest votes or genuine support? And second,
01:44if it is genuine support, are the people in Saxony-Anhalt more right-winged or solitarians than
01:49in other states of Germany? And first of all, I think it is genuine support, but still the people are
01:57not more right-wing than in other parts of Germany. What I mean is that it is not genuine support
02:04for the
02:05AFD's agenda, but rather for their image of doing everything different or how they post this on
02:12their election slogans. Everything is possible. The state has experienced the largest population decline
02:18of any German state over the past 35 years. Since 1990, we lost 25% of our population. And you
02:26see that
02:27especially in rural areas. For example, cities like Wolfen, the former center of the chemical industry,
02:32had 45,000 people in 1990, and today it's 15,000. Most young people left the city and within the
02:38schools, the sport clubs and other parts of the civil life. And the young people also fear this
02:45demographic change. In economically disadvantaged areas, there's a teacher shortage. And after they
02:52graduated, they only have few job opportunities or poor career chances. What I'm trying to say is that
02:5740% of the voters of the AFD do not vote for the AFD because of its far-right topics,
03:05but rather
03:05despite the fact that it is a far-right party. People in Eastern Germany are not more right-wing,
03:10they are simply more frustrated. So would you say that this is rather an exceptional case,
03:16or are we looking at a trend that could spread across Germany? Well, I think it's a trend you see
03:22in
03:23whole Eastern Germany. For example, in two weeks, there will be the election in Mecklenburg-Western
03:28Pomerania. There's also a strong AFD. This is also an Eastern German federal state. And in my
03:36opinion, it is very possible that the AFD will also be the winner of the election in Mecklenburg-Western
03:44Pomerania. But still, that doesn't mean that the AFD is so strong on the national level.
03:52Ironically, the biggest voter gain on the national level, it doesn't come from the election results
04:00here in Saxony-Arnhalt. It comes from the Chancellor. So the Chancellor Friedrich Merz has an approval rating
04:07of just above 9%, which is really, really low. And yesterday, I heard Thorsten Frey, who is the leader of
04:18the CDU in the Bundestag. And he said, even though we had this horrible election for the CDU here in
04:26Saxony-Arnhalt, there won't be any consequences on the national level of the government. And this is
04:32what frustrates people. And this could give the AFD more votes if the CDU on the national level still
04:39turns a blind eye to these warnings like the elections here in Saxony-Arnhalt.
04:44The political dilemma of the political center is to keep up the firewall and risk political paralysis,
04:52or weaken the firewall and legitimize the AFD. So what's going to happen?
04:59The main question is how we can form a government here in Saxony-Arnhalt. As I mentioned earlier,
05:05there is no majority without the AFD at the moment. And it's pretty much possible that the AFD
05:13minister-president could be elected with votes of the CDU members. On the one side, there are CDU
05:21members who sympathize with the program of the AFD. On the other side, the CDU here in Saxony-Arnhalt knows
05:29about this problem. And they only got 15 seats this election. Still, it is a secret election. And in my
05:37opinion, it's possible that single members of the CDU will vote for a minister-president of the AFD
05:44and would also support single policies of the AFD or a possible AFD government. But I don't think
05:52that there will be an open coalition between the CDU and the AFD. So this kind of firewall will
05:59still hold, in my opinion. And what kind of pressure do you see on the Christian Democrats and on
06:05Chancellor Mertz? Because he is the one that is kind of at the center of this debate. Can he survive
06:14this politically? Yeah, I think for Chancellor Mertz, this will be a main question. As I mentioned earlier,
06:22his approval rating is just over 9%. And it's so low that he didn't even show up during the campaign
06:27here. Although the leading candidate is also from the CDU in Saxony-Arnhalt. The election of Saxony-Arnhalt
06:34shows that the CDU has, on the national level, correct their political costs. So a lot of people are
06:43frustrated from the work of the CDU. The CDU, they promised different things than they made after the
06:50elections. The economy is doing worse than before the last election on the national level. But to be
06:58honest, there are also parts which are not the fault of the CDU. We have this ongoing crisis with Russia,
07:06the war between Russia and Ukraine. We have the war on Iran. And these are topics that Chancellor Mertz
07:13can't do a lot about it. But still you feel these economically. The main part for the CDU is now
07:19to
07:20establish like a positive idea of what the future will bring for the people. And at the moment we
07:28don't have this positive vision. And the AFD is the only candidate showing some kind of positive vision,
07:33which was everything is possible. So everything can also be different. I want to, you know, point to one
07:41very special policy and that's education policy. Education policy are decided on a state level in
07:49the Federal Republic. Now, the AFD has suggested a shift in the school curriculum to reduce the focus
07:59on Hitler and the Holocaust in history lessons. Now, how dangerous do you think is this? I mean,
08:08this has raised a lot of eyebrows outside of Germany. Is the AFD about to whitewash German history?
08:17Yeah, I wouldn't go that far. But still, as you mentioned, the AFD has the possibility to change the
08:24curriculum and schools here in Saxony on it. But only in borders. So they can't change the full
08:33curriculum. There still has to be parts about the Second World War and the time after the war. But
08:39they can shorten this period in school. But everything they want to do instead has to be scientifically
08:47approved. So you can't teach anything in Germany, which isn't at the state of the art and the eyes of
08:53the science. But their idea is to shift from the Second World War to times of, in brackets like,
09:06better Germany or a better vision of Germany, which is the German Empire or the time of Otto the Great.
09:13Yes, they can change the view of younger people about German, about German history, about our place in the
09:22world. And to establish a more proud vision, or to be proud to be a German. That's the narrative of
09:31the AFD.
09:32But this narrative on the national level is as it was before.
09:39Yeah, interesting. One more. There are 27 countries in the European Union. A lot of them have far-right parties
09:48for many,
09:49many years. Now, is Germany finally entering that phase, that sort of new normal where a strong,
10:00far-right political party is part of the political process?
10:04Yeah, I think you already saw that in the last election, where the AFD had a lot of votes.
10:12And they are the leading opposition party in every parliament on the state level or on the national
10:20level. So, yeah, Germany is entering and was already before entering this new era of far-right parties in
10:33the parliament. And maybe entering also the countries of far-right parties in government.
10:41Do you think that with the strong showing of the AFD in Germany, this will have an impact on,
10:48well, first of all, the German government, and then by extension on the politics of Brussels?
10:55So, first of all, yes, I see a shift to more conservative topics in the last years. And
11:02conservative ideas and narratives are stronger in the society and in the German government too.
11:09But still, I wouldn't overestimate the impact of, like, federal elections in Sonja Arnald or in
11:16Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on the national level or even on the EU level. On the national level,
11:22the AFD isn't as strong as it is in the Eastern German country, states. And we have to acknowledge
11:33that the majority of the people are still against the ideas of the AFD. So there won't be, in my
11:40opinion, a shift in Germany towards the AFD and the narratives of the AFD on the national government.
11:48All right. Nicolas Spoon, political scientist at the Otto von Gehrigke University in Magdeburg-Saxony
11:54Anhalt. Thank you so much for your time today. Thank you.
