Ever wondered what happens when Ukraine targets Russia's Amazon? Dive into the wild story of Wildberries, drone strikes, and the shockwaves hitting the Russian economy! We break down how warehouse attacks ripple through business, banking, and everyday life. Don't miss this deep (and at times jaw-dropping) analysis! Subscribe for more sharp takes and comment what blew your mind in this episode! #Ukraine #Russia #Economy #News #Business
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@costua
0:00 - Wave of Wildberries Warehouse Attacks
1:54 - Russian Reaction and Video Overview
2:50 - MilTech Fund and Investments Section
5:05 - Wildberries Platform Structure and Market Role
9:35 - Logistics' Military Importance and Business Fallout
17:57 - Financial Crisis and Business Collapses
24:34 - Banking, Insurance, and Social Crisis
38:14 - Conclusions: Economic and Social Impact
We're now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/033ygZMll1PIfydayeyRct
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@costua
0:00 - Wave of Wildberries Warehouse Attacks
1:54 - Russian Reaction and Video Overview
2:50 - MilTech Fund and Investments Section
5:05 - Wildberries Platform Structure and Market Role
9:35 - Logistics' Military Importance and Business Fallout
17:57 - Financial Crisis and Business Collapses
24:34 - Banking, Insurance, and Social Crisis
38:14 - Conclusions: Economic and Social Impact
We're now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/033ygZMll1PIfydayeyRct
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NewsTranscript
00:00Since July 18, 2026, Ukrainians wake up in the morning and see reports of another Wildberries warehouse being hit.
00:10The waters are burning.
00:11St. Petersburg? Holy sh**.
00:19Major hubs, like an electrostall, Moscow Oblast, Krasnodar, Nevinomysk, Stavropolkrai, St. Petersburg, they are destroyed.
00:28Another portion is damaged. Some avoided serious destruction, though. For now, at least.
00:34Today, St. Petersburg burned down. Before that, it was electrostall, Krasnodar.
00:38Money is just burning before our eyes.
00:40Wait, I checked the news and I'm terrified of which warehouse will be next.
00:44In total, up to 18 facilities were attacked by Ukrainian drones.
00:49The attacks covered a vast territory of Russia, from border and central regions to facilities nearly 9,000 kilometers away
00:57from the contact line.
00:58Moscow Oblast, Leningrad Oblast, Tula, Vladimir, Samara, Tambov, Ryazan, Penza, Sverdlovsk, Volgograd, Oblasts, Udmert Republic, Perm, Krasnodar, and Stavropolkris, St.
01:15Petersburg.
01:15For an ordinary Russian, this is no longer just news or abstract explosions somewhere far away.
01:22It's the end of everyday comfort, delays with orders, disappearance of goods, and the shattering of the illusion of safety.
01:30They say they'd cut it off. A delivery arrived, but there's nowhere left to unload it.
01:35For a long time, they watched the war through smartphone screens, remaining in their comfort zone.
01:41Now, when their favorite services have turned to ashes, they're beginning to feel that the war is not somewhere far
01:49away in Ukraine,
01:50but a reality knocking at their own door.
01:54What a thrill. Now, this is real action.
01:57Putin, thank you so much.
01:58Vladimir Vladimirovich, what a handsome man.
02:01God, just wow, the best. You saved Russia.
02:04Russian media and authorities, who have been mercilessly bombing Ukrainian infrastructure for years,
02:10Novoposhta, or energy facilities, have suddenly kicked up a fuss.
02:14The Kyiv regime continues to strike civilian targets.
02:18This is the terrorist essence of the Kyiv regime.
02:20They appeal to international law and shout that Wildberries is not a military target.
02:27Recently, we analyzed how Ukraine found Russia's main weakness.
02:32Why strikes on oil refineries could win the war?
02:36In this video, we'll break down why Wildberries isn't just a marketplace,
02:40but a critically important element of the enemy's economy and military logistics,
02:44and why such strikes are completely justified and bring a Ukrainian victory closer.
02:49I have three wishes right now.
02:52The first is for Ukrainian drones to find even more of the enemy's vulnerabilities.
02:57Warehouses, logistics, oil refining, everything that fuels the Russian war,
03:02including the occupiers themselves.
03:04The second is for us not just to donate to this, but to earn from it as well.
03:09Because money should work, both for you and for the country's defense.
03:12And third, so that Ukrainian Miltec companies become the world's finest.
03:17Because if this war has proven anything, it is that the future of the battlefield
03:21isn't being created somewhere in Silicon Valley, but here, in Ukraine.
03:25And now, these three desires can be combined through the Injur Injur Miltec Fund.
03:30How does it work?
03:32You purchase certificates of the Injur Injur Miltec Fund.
03:35And the fund invests these funds into corporate bonds of the Ukrainian defense company Viri Industries,
03:41one of the largest producers of FPV drones in Ukraine.
03:45Viri receives working capital and can scale up production.
03:48Ukrainian defenders receive more modern unmanned equipment.
03:51While every 35 days, the fund receives coupon income on the bonds and reinvests it
03:57in order to increase the value of your investment on a daily basis.
04:00The projected average annual simple return of the Injur Miltec Fund over three years is
04:0525 to 29 percent per annum in Rivnia.
04:09But keep in mind, you can only invest up to and including December 31, 2026.
04:15After that, the fund will stop accepting investments.
04:18In other words, it's a chance to support Ukrainian defense.
04:21Help scale Miltec and earn returns on securities all at the same time.
04:25To invest, we recommend using the Injur app.
04:28It's faster and more convenient.
04:29It's available for both iOS and Android.
04:33Why should you trust Injur?
04:34Because it already has over 100,000 active accounts.
04:38Of Ukrainians, real estate funds manage assets worth around 7.5 billion hrivnas.
04:43And the volume of investors' domestic government bond portfolio with Injur is almost 30.4 billion hrivnas.
04:50Injur investors' income from dividends and capital appreciation already exceeds 1.7 billion hrivnas.
04:56And they've earned another nearly 280 million hrivnas from coupon payments.
05:01Investment details are at the link in the description.
05:09Wildberries is not just an online store, but a full-fledged marketplace platform that serves as Russia's equivalent of Amazon.
05:16The company was founded in 2004 and over two decades transformed from a small online retailer into one of the
05:26country's largest and most influential retail ecosystems.
05:30The core of the business is that Wildberries doesn't manufacture goods itself, but connects buyers with hundreds of thousands of
05:38independent third-party sellers on a single platform, providing the entire chain, from listing products in the catalog to tracking,
05:46from doorstep or pickup point delivery, handling returns, and even financial settlements.
05:52For an ordinary user, Wildberries looks like a huge online hypermarket.
05:57In the app or on the website, you can find millions of items.
06:01Clothing, footwear, electronics, household goods, baby products, cosmetics, groceries, building materials, and more.
06:08For sellers, Wildberries is a workspace with tools for business management, such as an account dashboard, platform analytics, and sales
06:16analytics, advertising tools for promoting products and financial services, settlements, payouts, factoring, and loan products to replenish working capital, the
06:27heart of the business.
06:28Its own logistics infrastructure, warehouses and sorting centers, pickup points, courier delivery, and inter-warehouse logistics.
06:36Wildberries doesn't make money by reselling goods like a traditional retailer, but on services surrounding the deal, sales commissions, logistics
06:45fees, internal advertising and promotion, as well as financial and payment services.
06:51The combined RWB Group, the parent company of Wildberries, stated that its gross merchandise volume for 2025 amounted to $73
07:01.3 billion.
07:03That is 49% more than in 2024, which was $44.2 billion.
07:13This is not the company's revenue, but the total sum of all orders placed through the platform, including the funds,
07:20that go to sellers.
07:21So this is an indicator of the ecosystem's scale, not the company's own revenue.
07:26According to the same data, the RWB Group's net profit in 2025 under international financial reporting standards was $2.1
07:36billion.
07:37In 2024, this figure stood at $1.3 billion.
07:44According to the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service, FAS of Russia, as of January 2024, the combined share of Wildberries and
07:52Ozon accounted for 80% of the online shopping market, with Wildberries at 47% and Ozon at 35.5%.
08:01Such a concentration makes Wildberries a systemically important player.
08:06Any disruptions in its operations, such as strikes on warehouses, technical issues, or logistical changes, have an immediate impact on
08:13the entire market, prices, availability of goods, and even social stability.
08:17According to estimates by the research agency Data Insight, between 500,000 and 800,000 sellers operate on Wildberries.
08:27This marketplace accounts for 52% of all online orders in Russia.
08:33One of the reasons why Wildberries has captured a huge share of online trade, it was the March 2022 decision,
08:40by a Russian court declaring Meta, the owner of Instagram, an extremist organization, as well as banning its activities in
08:48the Russian Federation, including the social networks Instagram and Facebook.
08:54Before the ban, all small sellers in Russia used Instagram, which was a kind of online store through which it
09:00was convenient to find buyers and build a customer base.
09:04The ban forced everyone to move to Wildberries.
09:07Also, this asset is close to the Russian Federation's inner circle.
09:11After the divorce of Wildberries' founders Tatyana Kim and Vladislav Bakalchuk, as well as the marketplace's merger with the advertising
09:21operator Rus, the company has been linked to Putin's oligarch, Suleyman Kedimov.
09:26He is considered to be the informal patron or potential beneficiary of Wildberries.
09:31Why is Wildberries a legitimate target?
09:34There are several reasons for destroying Wildberries' facilities, and the main one was pointed out by the president of Ukraine,
09:42Volodymyr Zelensky, in response to Russian strikes on our civilian infrastructure, on our cities and communities.
09:48Logistics facilities have been hit, which were used by the aggressor to ensure the supply of sanctioned components for the
09:56production of drones and navigation equipment.
09:59Wildberries is a vital component of Russian logistics.
10:01The marketplace is effectively integrated into the aggressor's military supply system.
10:08Along with consumer goods, dual-use gear is actively traded there, ranging from thermal imagers, walkie-talkies, and body armor,
10:16to critical components for drones.
10:18Drone detectors, combat helmets, camouflage clothing, body armor, first aid kits.
10:23I'm not encouraging you to profiteer from the war. I'm just giving you information.
10:27These goods have profit margins of 30% or more.
10:30And also, advertising rates are minimal simply because the demand is met.
10:34Found the quality product? Put it up after the sale.
10:37Using the marketplace interface, the occupiers and volunteers are able to leverage its infrastructure as a fast, scalable military supply
10:45chain.
10:46In early July, 2026, Wildberries updated its agreement with sellers, adding a clause stating that
10:55The marketplace is not liable for any consequences whatsoever of the use, impact, crash, launch, or activation of weaponry, military
11:06equipment, cleans, including UAVs, weapons, ammunition, and their components, as well as shelling, explosions, and other means of destruction.
11:16I'm a seller on the Wildberries marketplace, and tonight I lost, out of nowhere, over 2 million rubles.
11:22Of course, that money isn't recoverable, because a week before this, an offer agreement was signed stating that in such
11:26cases, Wildberries compensates nothing.
11:28From this, we can conclude that the management was aware in advance of the high risk of attacks on its
11:35logistics infrastructure, warehouses, centers, and therefore legally shielded itself from financial claims by sellers in the event of the destruction
11:43or damage of their goods as a result of hostility.
11:47In effect, the company shifted all the risks associated with the war, incoming strikes, explosions, drone attacks, entirely onto the
11:55shoulders of the sellers, absolving itself of responsibility for the safety of the goods under such conditions.
12:00The Russians regularly strike the infrastructure of Novopashta across Ukraine.
12:05For instance, on July 7th, following an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region, a postal operator's warehouse caught fire in Kriviri,
12:13and during a massive strike on Kyiv, on July 2th, the Postal Service's logistics center in the Obolon district was
12:19destroyed.
12:20On June 22, Russian drones attacked a Novopashta logistics center in the Kharkiv region.
12:25The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the armed forces of Ukraine were using it to store drones, weapons, and spare
12:34parts.
12:34Russia is committing an act of illegal and unprovoked armed aggression against Ukraine.
12:40All military targets, dual-use targets, and targets significant for continuing Russia's armed aggression are legitimate.
12:48Thus, Wildberries is receiving a symmetrical response to the attacks on Ukrainian logistics.
12:53If the Russian Ministry of Defense justifies destroying Ukrainian postal warehouses by claiming that drones might be stored there,
13:01then by that same logic, Russian logistics hubs, through which these goods regularly pass, become completely legitimate targets.
13:09Another important aspect of the strikes on Wildberries is the impact on the Russian economy.
13:15It manifests itself in several aspects.
13:18Strikes on logistics hubs hit the critical infrastructure that sustains all small and medium-sized businesses in Russia.
13:26According to 2023 data, there were 6.35 million small and medium-sized business entities in the country,
13:3596% of which are micro-businesses.
13:39They are the ones that generate a significant portion of tax revenues for the budget.
13:42This base is now being undermined by raising VAT to 22% and lowering the tax exemption threshold from $723
13:52,000 to $120,000 per year.
13:56A move that brought hundreds of thousands more entrepreneurs into the system.
14:00At the same time, small business is heavily burdened with debt itself.
14:04According to data from the Moscow Times, citing the Bank of Russia,
14:08the loan portfolio of small and medium-sized businesses as of the end of 2025 reached over $190 billion,
14:16with $7.59 billion of that being overdue debt.
14:21But the most critical issue lies elsewhere.
14:23As of May 2026, approximately 1 in 6 of the 600,000 small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia that
14:33have loans
14:34had already defaulted on their payments.
14:37And nearly 10% of micro-enterprises found themselves in serious distress servicing their debt.
14:44And all this is even before the attacks on wildberries.
14:47The company physically cannot rebuild and diversify its network faster than it is being destroyed.
14:55Logistics rates and storage costs for sellers who are still operating will go up
14:59because the load from the destroyed hubs is shifting to the rest of the network.
15:03Recently, the conditions have changed significantly.
15:05Commissions and logistics costs have increased,
15:07they all times have gotten longer, and the tax burden has grown.
15:09At some point, we just sat down, did the math,
15:11and realized that if we entered the spring season, it would be business for the sake of business.
15:14We won't earn anything, and we'll be lucky if we don't lose money.
15:18Under such a scenario, the share of small and medium-sized businesses
15:21that can no longer manage debt servicing is very likely to grow.
15:27Even further, dragging down the reserves of the banks that lend to this sector.
15:32For entrepreneurs, this means massive cash flow gaps
15:35and a wave of business closures even before the end of the year.
15:38Where on earth can I get $3 million in two weeks?
15:40Can you imagine what wildberries did on Friday the 13th?
15:44With a single order, they basically triggered a cash flow gap for the entire country.
15:47They delayed all payouts by two weeks.
15:50And now, all sellers in Russia need to cover this gap of two weeks' worth of sales.
15:54For banks, an accelerated deterioration in the loan portfolio quality
15:58of small and medium-sized businesses beyond current levels.
16:01For the budget, a shortfall in tax revenues from a sector
16:04that is already showing signs of a slump following the VAT increase.
16:09And most importantly for public sentiment, hundreds of thousands of entrepreneurs
16:14who for years consider themselves the backbone of the system
16:17will experience firsthand that in a critical moment, no one protects them.
16:23No one.
16:23Neither the platform nor the state.
16:26Dear Tatiana Bakalchuk,
16:28When are you going to start taking some action?
16:30It is already glaringly obvious.
16:33We don't even have time to move anything out.
16:35A factor contributing to the destruction of such facilities is their vulnerability.
16:40Overall, Wildberries looks like an ideal target for drone strikes.
16:45Unlike Ozone, the company bet on building gigantic logistics centers
16:50that are easy to hit and are vulnerable to fires.
16:53The largest of them in area equal a couple dozen football fields.
16:58And it's precisely these that Ukrainian drones are striking.
17:01Practical proof of this is already appearing en masse online.
17:06Dozens of videos have been published that
17:08clearly show what remains of the warehouses.
17:10In, inside, everything has burned to the ground.
17:13And the roof and load-bearing structures have partially collapsed.
17:19Given the vast size of the territory of the Russian Federation,
17:22protecting all logistics facilities is impossible.
17:25A large number of such warehouses remain within reach of Ukrainian strike capabilities,
17:31which makes them strategically justified targets.
17:34The enemy's inability to cover all their infrastructure
17:38turns these facilities into a constant source of vulnerabilities.
17:44Consequences
17:45Business
17:46And Logistical Collapse
17:48In July, Marketplace lost at least 17 of its warehouse facilities,
17:54due to continuous UAV attacks.
17:57According to Forbes estimates,
17:59the platform's sellers' losses are approaching $3.5 billion.
18:03And the number of affected individuals is estimated at several hundred thousand.
18:08Just another cool new one the other day.
18:10Most of our goods burned down,
18:12totaling over 100 million rubles.
18:14I'm sitting there.
18:16Average capitalization is $7 million.
18:18Sales capitalization is almost $45 million.
18:20And I'm just sitting there,
18:22rooting at this plume of smoke.
18:23The crust on the warehouse is abandoned.
18:25And all of our goods.
18:26And
18:27An employee of a company specializing in warehouse real estate
18:30estimated the investment required to restore the facilities
18:33at approximately $843 per square meter,
18:37excluding VAT.
18:39Taking into account the data provided by Data Insight,
18:42we could be talking about an amount between $742 million and $960 million
18:48needed to restore the damaged warehouses.
18:52And that's as of early August.
18:54Right after the first attacks,
18:56Wildberries announced that Sellers would receive discounts on storage
18:59at several warehouses and on transit deliveries to regional hubs.
19:03WB Bank is also supposed to offer its own support measures to entrepreneurs.
19:08And this was about deferrals and preferential loans.
19:12RWB's creditors, VTB and SpareBank, also announced support measures.
19:17VTB stated that it would take a flexible approach to various forms of credit support
19:22if RWB needs it.
19:25SpareBank announced that it is accepting applications for loan restructuring
19:28from entrepreneurs who lost inventory at the Wildberries warehouses
19:32in Katovsk and Elektrostal.
19:35Formally, the marketplace doesn't owe the Sellers anything at all.
19:39As we reported, back on July 7th, Wildberries amended the terms of its agreement with Sellers
19:44to include a clause exempting the company from liability for damages
19:48related to terrorist attacks and unmanned aerial vehicles.
19:52Terrorist attacks on our warehouses are considered force majeure events.
19:56Whether this clause is included in the offer or not makes no difference.
20:00So under the law, these losses are not subject to compensation.
20:02Press.
20:03On July 28th, the press service reported that it had already paid victims over $495,000.
20:11Payouts to Sellers with the lowest turnover, of which there are 88,000,
20:16have been carried out since July 22.
20:18The second tranche of payments took place on July 30th.
20:2297,000 entrepreneurs received money.
20:25But the amount was not disclosed in the RWB press service statement.
20:29According to open sources and seller reviews, the compensation figures look like this.
20:35Payouts range from 3% to 50% of the lost goods value,
20:40depending on the business size, product category, and other factors.
20:44Most received compensation of 5% to 10% of the goods value.
20:49Some received from 30% to 50%.
20:52But that's a minority.
20:54There are cases where sellers received less than 3% to 5% of the value.
21:00Are the entrepreneurs satisfied with these payouts?
21:03No.
21:04Most are extremely furious with a compensation amount.
21:07Money is already coming in as compensation for what burned down.
21:10We received it.
21:11I won't comment on the amount, but it's just ridiculous.
21:13I lost half a million in the fire, and today the payout came.
21:17The main complaints are the miserable amounts.
21:20Most sellers received only 5% to 10% of the lost merchandise's value,
21:25which isn't enough to cover the losses.
21:27I was just talking with some colleagues,
21:28and they lost 800,000 rubles worth of goods in the fire.
21:31And how much do you think Wildberries paid them out of that sum?
21:34Maybe at least 100,000 or 500,000, 2,000 rubles.
21:37In the current situation, only we and the government can help you.
21:40As for payment plans for large and medium-sized businesses,
21:42which form the backbone of the marketplace,
21:43Wildberries is staying silent.
21:45I know some guys, some folks, who had 80 million,
21:48even 100 million rubles worth of goods there.
21:50Those are my problems.
21:52I'm out a million.
21:531% of sellers who earn over $1,200 a month
21:57account for 73% of the e-commerce market.
22:02Almost all retail chains and brands
22:05had their goods burned in the Wildberries warehouse.
22:08According to several Forbes sources,
22:10the largest Russian retailers are among those affected by the attacks.
22:14Million fashion groups' losses exceed $12 million.
22:19Significant losses were sustained by fashion retailer Bayon
22:22and wholesale supplier of office, school, and home goods, Samson.
22:26Beyond external blows,
22:28the company's business model is being undermined from within.
22:32Reports have emerged that Wildberries management
22:34used drone attacks as a smokescreen
22:37for the large-scale embezzlement of goods.
22:40What the hell?
22:41My suits that burned up in Electrostal
22:44are being sold on AliExpress.
22:46According to reports by Russian media,
22:50highly liquid goods,
22:51particularly electronics and jewelry,
22:54are secretly taken from the warehouses,
22:56after which they are marked in the inventory system
22:58as having been located at the affected facilities.
23:02This scheme allows management
23:03to conceal the true scale of shortages
23:05and write them off as combat losses.
23:07Because of these manipulations,
23:09thousands of sellers have suffered,
23:11with many plunged into critical debt
23:13and pushed to the brink of bankruptcy.
23:15I came from Switzerland.
23:19Looks like it's totally different.
23:21Meanwhile, Wildberries is looking for opportunities
23:24to replace the lost logistics infrastructure.
23:26Owners of vacant warehouses in Russia
23:28are not yet ready to sign new lease agreements
23:30with the marketplace.
23:32That is why the company started looking for opportunities
23:34in other countries,
23:35for example, in Kazakhstan.
23:37These are complexes covering 100,000 square meters.
23:41Wildberries is ready to rent all available warehouses.
23:45A series of strikes on logistics hubs
23:47also affected the network of pickup points.
23:50Due to shipping delays and a reduced product range,
23:54point owners faced a sharp drop in turnover.
23:56In July, in some regions,
23:58revenues dropped by 15 to 20 percent,
24:01and on certain days, by 30 to 40 percent.
24:04This is worsening the profitability crisis.
24:07Most locations are barely reaching
24:08a 5 to 10 percent profit margin,
24:11and many have already become unprofitable.
24:13As a result,
24:14a massive sell-off of turnkey businesses
24:16is taking place across the market.
24:18In the first half of the year alone,
24:20listings for the sale of pickup points grew by 26 percent.
24:24At the same time,
24:25demand for such assets remains extremely low.
24:28Financial and banking crisis
24:29The occupier's problems extend
24:32far beyond a single marketplace.
24:33It is also a blow to the Russian financial system,
24:36which is already facing an increase in bad loans,
24:39an outflow of money from banks,
24:40and a liquidity deficit.
24:42According to data from the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine,
24:46Wildberry's debts to Russian banks
24:47are estimated at almost $12.3 billion.
24:51The largest part of this amount is owed to VTB,
24:55the country's second-largest bank.
24:58According to estimates,
24:59its balance sheet may hold between
25:01$6.14 and $7.73 billion
25:05in loans to the marketplace.
25:08For the bank,
25:09this means the emergence of a major new risk
25:11against the backdrop of already accumulated problems
25:13with the quality of its loan portfolio.
25:15But the problem isn't limited to VTB.
25:17Wildberry's debts are tied
25:19not only to the marketplace itself,
25:21but also to the thousands of sellers
25:23who operate through the platform.
25:24A significant portion of these liabilities
25:26consists of short-term loans.
25:28Losses from destroyed goods
25:29are already estimated at approximately $6 billion.
25:33If some sellers are unable to meet their obligations,
25:36Russian banks will face a new wave of delinquent borrowers.
25:39For the banking system,
25:41this has added pressure
25:42at a moment when it is already losing stability.
25:44Over the first two weeks of July,
25:46the cash outflow from Russian banks reached $5.6 billion,
25:50twice as much as in the entire month of June.
25:52The liquidity deficit is approaching $30 billion.
25:57That is when clients withdraw cash
25:59or transfer funds en masse,
26:01and internal reserves in the accounts
26:03are simply not enough.
26:04Then the bank is forced to take out expensive loans,
26:07refinancing from the national bank,
26:09or borrow from other financial institutions.
26:11The Kremlin's ability
26:13to just throw money at the problem is also limited.
26:15The federal budget deficit
26:17already stands at about $73 billion.
26:19And on July 24,
26:22the Central Bank of Russia
26:23raised its forecast to $98 billion.
26:27Banks that were recently buying government bonds
26:30may now need budget support themselves.
26:33In July,
26:34the Russian finance ministry
26:36three times refused to issue federal loan bonds
26:39because investors agreed to buy the securities
26:41only at a premium
26:42that the ministry considers unacceptable.
26:46This is a sign that demand for government debt
26:49is shrinking faster
26:50than the Kremlin's budget needs are growing.
26:53Federal loan bonds are the main instrument
26:55used by the government
26:56to cover the budget deficit
26:57and refinance old debts.
26:59And these securities are purchased
27:01mainly by Russian banks,
27:02investment companies,
27:03and pension funds.
27:04At the same time,
27:07Wildberry's had accumulated colossal debts,
27:09which were already difficult for it to service.
27:11In the explanation to the financial statements,
27:14RVB acknowledged
27:16that it had partially breached
27:17its obligations to creditors,
27:19but they did not demand early repayment.
27:22Wildberry's ability to service its debts
27:24under the previous terms
27:25is already being questioned.
27:27According to Reuters,
27:28Marketplace co-owner Tatiana Kim
27:30has appealed to the government for help.
27:32At the same time,
27:33the spread of attacks on Ozon's infrastructure
27:36could deal an additional blow to VTB.
27:39In late June,
27:40the Russian state bank
27:41obtained a large stake in the marketplace
27:43as collateral for a loan of nearly $4 billion.
27:48Fires at the warehouses
27:49will devalue this collateral.
27:51Even now,
27:52when drones aren't hitting Ozon,
27:54its share prices on the Moscow exchange
27:55are creeping down.
27:57Over six months,
27:58the company's value dropped by 35%.
28:01Just like VTB's share prices,
28:04which fell in value by more than a third
28:06over the past six months of this year.
28:09Following increased strikes on infrastructure,
28:12the Russian insurance market
28:13is experiencing a real crisis.
28:16Insurers are refusing to cover
28:18large industrial facilities
28:19against this risk.
28:21Last week,
28:22the founder of Wildberries
28:24publicly complained about this.
28:25All of their warehouse complexes are insured,
28:28but existing policies
28:29do not cover the risks
28:30of terrorism and drone attacks.
28:33And most Russian companies
28:34are not prepared
28:35to take on this risk separately.
28:37In fact,
28:38this is an expansion of a trend
28:39that has already taken shape
28:40in the Russian Federation,
28:42shifting the costs of war
28:43onto business and the population.
28:46An insurance risk,
28:47by definition,
28:48must be unpredictable
28:49and accidental.
28:51That is what this business is based on.
28:53But over the past year,
28:55strikes on Russian facilities
28:56have become so regular
28:57that they moved
28:58from the accidental category
28:59to the expected one.
29:01And what is expected
29:02cannot be insured.
29:04It is simply paid for.
29:06Problems with insurers
29:07are affecting both large oil companies
29:09and small entrepreneurs today.
29:11and reflect the overall economic situation,
29:14rising uncertainty,
29:16and costs that can't be covered
29:17by anything.
29:19Social and political impact.
29:21The structure that the authority
29:22spent four years building
29:24is collapsing.
29:25That the war could be waged
29:27at its current cost
29:28while ensuring that the majority
29:30of citizens wouldn't notice it.
29:32That the front line is far away
29:34while here and now
29:36there is an ordinary,
29:37peaceful life with normal spending.
29:39This illusion was maintained
29:40by pumping money
29:41into the economy
29:42on abnormally high oil revenues
29:44of 2022,
29:47on suspending the fiscal rule
29:49that constrained budget spending,
29:50and on expenditures
29:52from the National Wealth Fund,
29:53whose purpose is to save
29:55and invest money
29:55to support the pension system,
29:57and over the past two years
29:59on tax hikes as well.
30:01The authorities are preparing
30:02a package of credit
30:03and tax support measures
30:04for entrepreneurs
30:05affected by Ukrainian strikes
30:07on Wildberries warehouses.
30:10Among the measures being discussed
30:12are loan deferrals
30:13for up to one year,
30:15debt restructuring,
30:16subsidized working capital loans
30:18through microfinance institutions,
30:20as well as temporary tax breaks
30:22and reduced tax rates.
30:25In addition,
30:27Wildberry sellers
30:28may be permitted to store goods
30:29in Russian post warehouses.
30:31The specific package of measures
30:33has not yet been agreed upon.
30:36Thus,
30:37the Kremlin's attempts
30:38to patch the holes
30:39through tax breaks,
30:40loan restructuring,
30:41and subsidies
30:42for affected businesses
30:43are a forced reaction
30:44that directly works
30:46against the Russian budget.
30:49Every tax break
30:50or deferral granted
30:51means lost tax revenue
30:53that was supposed
30:53to fund the war.
30:56So,
30:56these strikes
30:57achieved their goal.
30:58They not only
30:59disrupt the aggressor's logistics,
31:01but also force them
31:02to drain their own
31:03financial reserves
31:04putting out fires
31:05in the rear,
31:05which is undoubtedly
31:06positive for us.
31:09Information also emerged
31:11that Wildberries
31:12asked the government
31:13for state support
31:14in the astronomical amount
31:15of nearly
31:16$9.8 billion.
31:18Of that,
31:20$6 billion
31:20is meant to go
31:21toward compensating
31:22for losses from the attacks,
31:24and the remainder
31:25toward developing
31:26their own air defense system
31:28based on interceptor drones
31:30to protect their warehouses.
31:32Every ruble
31:33that the Russian budget
31:34is forced to spend
31:35on compensating
31:36a private company
31:37and on urgently
31:38patching holes
31:39in rear security
31:40is a ruble
31:41that won't go toward
31:42financing the murder
31:43of Ukrainians
31:43and the occupation
31:44of Ukraine.
31:46Shifting the financial burden
31:48onto the civilian sector
31:49and spreading public funds
31:51thin on protecting
31:52businesses at home
31:53drain the enemy's economy
31:54and directly weaken
31:55the occupier's
31:56offensive potential.
31:58Russians are feeling
31:59the consequences
32:00of the war
32:01ever more sharply
32:02to the burning
32:03oil refineries
32:04and price increases
32:05caused by economic
32:06restructuring
32:07and sanctions.
32:08Direct costs
32:09have been added
32:09that,
32:10due to the crisis
32:11in the insurance market,
32:12have affected
32:13hundreds of thousands
32:14of small
32:14and medium-sized
32:15entrepreneurs.
32:17These costs
32:18are the bill
32:18for the war,
32:19which the state
32:20is passing on
32:20to citizens
32:21in four ways
32:22at once.
32:22The first of them
32:23is inflation.
32:24The Central Bank
32:25of the Russian Federation
32:26has already raised
32:27its inflation forecast
32:29for 2026,
32:30sharply from the 4.5
32:32to 5.5 range
32:34to the 6 to 7 range,
32:35and warned
32:36that the rise
32:37in government borrowing
32:38will keep the rate
32:39high for longer.
32:40But,
32:41the national average
32:43doesn't say much.
32:44The fuel crisis
32:45this summer
32:45hit almost all regions,
32:47refining dropped
32:48by a quarter
32:48year-on-year.
32:50In Tuva,
32:51in eastern Siberia,
32:52gasoline prices
32:53went up by
32:5565%,
32:55and annual inflation
32:57in June
32:58reached 12.2%.
33:00Second,
33:01taxes.
33:02Tax rates in Russia
33:03have been changing
33:04for four years
33:05in a row.
33:05For the past two years,
33:07not just for businesses,
33:08but for citizens as well.
33:09In 2024,
33:11the government
33:11raised income tax,
33:12and in 2025,
33:14VAT,
33:15the most important tax,
33:16which accounts
33:17for nearly 40%
33:18of federal budget revenues.
33:20In the first half of 26,
33:22the Ministry of Finance
33:23collected 49%
33:25of the annual VAT target.
33:27But in the second half
33:28of the year,
33:28the economy may well plunge
33:29into a recession.
33:30Business profit margins
33:32continue to decline,
33:33and therefore,
33:34meeting the target
33:34will become harder and harder.
33:36The third factor is
33:37an economic downturn.
33:39Due to the contraction
33:40of production,
33:41a prolonged period
33:43of high real interest rates
33:44means that
33:45debt servicing costs
33:46exceed the profitability
33:47of businesses.
33:48A company refinances
33:49at an interest rate
33:50that is not offset
33:51by its operating profit,
33:52and the money
33:53that previously went
33:54towards salaries
33:55and investments
33:56now goes to creditors.
33:57When this gap lasts
33:59not just for a single quarter,
34:00but for entire years,
34:02a business is left
34:03with two options.
34:04Cut costs,
34:05meaning staff
34:06and capital investments,
34:07or not pay at all.
34:09If the second option
34:10is chosen en masse,
34:11and there you have it,
34:13a debt crisis.
34:14That spills over
34:15to the banks
34:16in the form
34:16of overdue debts.
34:18The key rate
34:18is currently at 14,
34:20and that's still
34:22an unaffordable level
34:23for most of the real sector.
34:25The fourth point
34:26is the direct transfer
34:28of risk.
34:28The risk of losing
34:29property or a job
34:30doesn't disappear
34:31and isn't compensated.
34:33It also gets passed
34:34down the chain
34:35to whoever cannot
34:36refuse to accept it.
34:37Drones are reaching
34:38warehouses
34:39in the Moscow region,
34:40and oil refineries
34:41near the border
34:42with Kazakhstan.
34:43And this is no longer
34:44front-line reports,
34:45but logistics,
34:46relied on by tens
34:47of millions of people.
34:48Protection from
34:49external violence
34:49is not just one
34:50of the state's functions,
34:51but the very foundation
34:53upon which the compact
34:54between the ruler
34:54and the people
34:55historically rests.
34:57People and businesses
34:58pay taxes
34:59in exchange for the state
35:01ensuring the security
35:02of their lives
35:03and property.
35:04The majority
35:05do not have
35:05a reserve buffer
35:07to survive,
35:08a burnt warehouse,
35:09or a lost job.
35:11Credit is expensive,
35:12and government subsidies
35:14are not on the table.
35:16Delinquencies have been
35:17rising steadily
35:18over the past year.
35:19In retail trade,
35:20it rose to 5.8%
35:23of the portfolio
35:24compared to 5.3%
35:26a year ago.
35:27For corporate loans,
35:29up to 3.6%
35:31compared to 3.1%.
35:34The situation is worst
35:36among the metallurgy
35:37and transport sectors.
35:39Ukraine is methodically
35:41striking at the Russian
35:42economy's most vulnerable
35:43pressure point,
35:44at the fuel infrastructure
35:45and mass market logistics.
35:48That is,
35:49at what directly
35:50and quickly translates
35:51into inflationary expectations
35:53and affects
35:54budget stability.
35:56Strikes on oil refineries
35:57have already led
35:58to gasoline shortages
35:59and rising prices.
36:01Strikes on wildberries
36:02will add disruptions
36:03to non-food supplies.
36:04And a new wave
36:05of distrust
36:06in the country's
36:07everyday infrastructure.
36:08For the Kremlin,
36:09this is a two-front blow.
36:11A fiscal one,
36:12due to the threat
36:13of deposit outflows
36:14that fund the war,
36:15and an inflationary one,
36:17due to rising expectations
36:18that the Bank of Russia
36:20will have to suppress
36:21with much tighter
36:22monetary policy
36:23than originally planned.
36:24The Kremlin
36:24is no longer
36:25the guarantor
36:26of last resort,
36:27neither for business
36:28nor for citizens.
36:29As long as this
36:30applied to oil refineries,
36:32it could be considered
36:33an industry-specific problem.
36:34When it comes
36:35to a marketplace
36:36used by three-quarters
36:37of RUNET users,
36:38it affects everyone.
36:41The cost of the bailout
36:43To prevent
36:44the financial collapse
36:45and bankruptcy
36:46of wildberries,
36:47the state will most likely
36:48step in
36:48to save the company.
36:49According to sources
36:50from The Bell,
36:51direct losses alone
36:52for wildberries,
36:53which lost about 20%
36:55of its warehouse capacity
36:56in just a few weeks,
36:58could exceed
36:58$1.1
36:59to $1.2
37:00billion,
37:01and in the worst-case
37:02scenario,
37:03nearly $2.5 billion.
37:06As the estimates suggest,
37:07Wildberries' overall
37:08funding need
37:09could reach $16 billion.
37:11At the very least,
37:13the company will have
37:14to increase its debt
37:15by this amount
37:15in order to reinvent itself.
37:17Due to the departure
37:18of sellers,
37:19many of whom lost
37:20their businesses
37:20and goods in an instant,
37:22the marketplace's turnover,
37:23according to The Bell,
37:24has already dropped
37:25by a quarter.
37:26The thing is that
37:27Wildberries gets money
37:29from the buyer
37:29right after the purchase,
37:31but transfers it
37:32to the seller
37:33only a few weeks later.
37:35All this time,
37:36they remain
37:37in the company's
37:38working capital,
37:39which is used
37:39to cover ongoing expenses
37:41and provide discounts.
37:43Since the marketplace's
37:44turnover has already
37:45dropped by a quarter
37:46due to a massive
37:47exodus of sellers,
37:48a risk of collapse
37:49of the company's
37:50internal pyramid scheme
37:51has emerged.
37:52The company used
37:53the seller's
37:53working capital,
37:54the money withheld,
37:55before payout,
37:57to cover
37:57ongoing expenses
37:58and discounts.
37:59Now that the influx
38:01of new funds
38:01has plummeted,
38:02this scheme
38:03no longer works.
38:04The company is starting
38:05to accumulate losses.
38:07Experts warn,
38:08after such a blow,
38:10Wildberries will remain
38:11unprofitable
38:12for several years.
38:15Conclusions
38:17Systematic strikes
38:18on Wildberries'
38:19logistics infrastructure
38:20have become
38:21a justified step,
38:22demonstrating
38:22the vulnerability
38:23of the Russian economy
38:24to an asymmetric
38:25response to aggression,
38:27turning the marketplace,
38:28which is integrated
38:29into the supply chain
38:30of Russian aggression
38:31and is a key player
38:32in the market,
38:33into a legitimate
38:34military target,
38:35undermines not only
38:37the logistics chains,
38:38but also the
38:39socio-economic stability
38:40of the aggressor country.
38:42Large-scale warehouse fires
38:43expose the failure
38:45of the enemy's defense
38:46and insurance systems,
38:47shifting colossal
38:48financial losses
38:49onto the shoulders
38:50of business
38:51and the banking sector.
38:52The consequences
38:53of these attacks
38:54extend far beyond
38:56the physical destruction
38:56of goods,
38:57causing a cascading effect
38:59in the Russian financial system.
39:01Massive cash flow shortfalls
39:02among small
39:03and medium-sized businesses,
39:05the profitability crisis
39:06of order pickup points,
39:07and the rise
39:08in distressed debt
39:10owed to major state banks
39:11are draining
39:12the Kremlin's
39:13internal reserves.
39:14The authorities' attempts
39:15to patch the holes
39:17through tax breaks
39:17and subsidies
39:18only worsen
39:20the budget deficit,
39:20diverting resources
39:22away from funding
39:23military needs.
39:24Strikes on wildberries
39:26destroy the myth
39:27of a safe home front
39:28for Russians
39:28and force the Kremlin
39:29to choose
39:30whether to fund
39:32the survival
39:32of a systemically
39:33important business
39:34at the cost
39:35of cutting military spending
39:36or allow a major sector
39:38of the economy
39:39to collapse.
39:40This exhausts
39:41the enemy's economy
39:42from within,
39:43undermining its ability
39:44to continue
39:45its war of aggression
39:46and proving
39:47that responsibility
39:48for the aggression
39:49inevitably catches up
39:50not only with the front line
39:51but also with the occupier's
39:53economic rear.
39:55We read your comments carefully.
39:57Let us know
39:58under the video
39:58how justified
39:59is the destruction
40:00of a major Russian marketplace
40:02by Ukrainian strikes?
40:04Are there more
40:04high-priority targets?
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