00:00When you fill your vehicle's tank, you're not just paying for fuel,
00:04It is also paying the consequences of a war thousands of kilometers away.
00:08That's how connected the price of oil is to your wallet.
00:11Since February, when the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated into open warfare,
00:15The global oil market has never been the same since.
00:17More than 10 million barrels per day of production from the Persian Gulf
00:21They were paralyzed by the security risks.
00:23The International Energy Agency confirms that the world produces today
00:27101 million barrels per day, 1.6 million less than the previous month.
00:31As a result, Brent crude reached $113 per barrel in early September.
00:36This is 45% above pre-war levels.
00:39And the problem isn't just with crude oil.
00:41Diesel, which powers trucks, tractors and a large part of the world's industry,
00:44It surpassed $200 per barrel in the United States, 94% above February levels.
00:50Exports of refined products from the Gulf remain almost 60% below what they were before the conflict.
00:56and global oil reserves have fallen by 507 million barrels since the war began.
01:01That mattress runs out month after month.
01:02On Friday, September 12, new attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut down its east-west oil pipeline.
01:07a route with the capacity to move 7 million barrels per day that allows bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
01:12The reserves at the port of Yambú could sustain exports for between 5 and 7 days.
01:17Beyond that, analysts warn that the price of oil could approach $120 per barrel.
01:21Colombia, two sides of the same coin.
01:23For Colombia, this crisis has a good side and a bad side.
01:27And both are real at the same time.
01:29The good side, Ecopetrol.
01:31The oil company reported its best result since the end of 2022 in the second quarter.
01:35Revenues of 40 trillion pesos and profits of 6 trillion,
01:39a jump of 235% compared to the same period last year.
01:42For every dollar the price of oil rises, Ecopetrol gains approximately 300 billion pesos in cash.
01:48The downside: the gasoline subsidy.
01:50Colombia does not pass on the full international price of fuel to the consumer.
01:53The Fuel Price Stabilization Fund covers the difference.
01:57But the higher the price of a barrel of oil rises, the more it costs the State to maintain that subsidy.
02:01The government's debt to Ecopetrol for this reason has already reached 6 trillion pesos so far this year.
02:06year.
02:06And the 2027 budget allocates another 9.6 trillion just to address it.
02:11In other words, when crude oil prices rise, the State earns more from royalties and taxes.
02:15But he also owes more. And he's paying that debt with the money of all Colombians.
02:19There is a third effect that few mention.
02:21The increased inflow of dollars from oil exports is putting downward pressure on the exchange rate.
02:25And a very heavy burden, as the president of ANDI warned this week,
02:29This is a problem for non-oil export sectors.
02:33Coming?
02:33The International Energy Agency projects that if the Gulf manages to normalize its flows,
02:37The price of a barrel could fall to an average of $74 in 2027
02:41and global production would rebound by 8 million barrels per day.
02:45But that projection depends on something that, six months later, still hasn't happened.
02:49that the United States and Iran end the war and that the Strait of Hormuz return to what it once was.
02:54Until that happens, every barrel that rises in price will continue to be good news for Colombia.
02:59and a bad one at the same time.
03:01The question of which of the two weighs more depends on whether you work in the oil industry.
03:05or simply fill up your vehicle's tank.
03:08If you want to learn more about how oil impacts your wallet and personal finances,
03:12You can go to the Economics section of El Espectador
03:14and follow us on all our social media channels.
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