Gold and Silver prices are facing consolidation, but is this a short-term correction or a pause before the next rally? In this episode of Commodity Catch, we discuss the Gold-Silver outlook for the next 6–12 months, including key price ranges and possible upside. We also examine the impact of the Dollar Index above 100, Crude Oil prices around $100–105, RBI rate hike expectations and the upcoming US-China meeting. The discussion covers Buy on Dips strategy, Silver’s industrial demand, downside risks and the role of geopolitical tensions.
Gold और Silver की कीमतों में अभी Correction है या यह सिर्फ Short-Term Consolidation है? इस Commodity Catch में Gold-Silver के अगले 6–12 महीने के Outlook, Dollar Index 100 के ऊपर जाने, Crude Oil $100–105 की Range, RBI Rate Hike और US-China Meeting के संभावित असर को समझेंगे। इसके साथ जानिए Gold और Silver की Broad Range, अगले हफ्ते की संभावित Range, Buy on Dips Strategy, Silver में Industrial Demand का असर और Futures Trading में Risk Management कितना जरूरी है।
#GoldPrice #SilverPrice #GoldSilver #CommodityMarket #GoldInvestment #SilverInvestment #GoldForecast #SilverForecast #CommodityCatch #GoodReturns
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~HT.178~PR.474~ED.472~GR.538~VG.HM~
Gold और Silver की कीमतों में अभी Correction है या यह सिर्फ Short-Term Consolidation है? इस Commodity Catch में Gold-Silver के अगले 6–12 महीने के Outlook, Dollar Index 100 के ऊपर जाने, Crude Oil $100–105 की Range, RBI Rate Hike और US-China Meeting के संभावित असर को समझेंगे। इसके साथ जानिए Gold और Silver की Broad Range, अगले हफ्ते की संभावित Range, Buy on Dips Strategy, Silver में Industrial Demand का असर और Futures Trading में Risk Management कितना जरूरी है।
#GoldPrice #SilverPrice #GoldSilver #CommodityMarket #GoldInvestment #SilverInvestment #GoldForecast #SilverForecast #CommodityCatch #GoodReturns
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Gold Rate Falls Today, Sep 21: How Much Do 24K, 22K, 18K Gold Cost in Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad? :: https://www.goodreturns.in/gold/gold-rate-falls-today-sep-21-how-much-do-24k-22k-18k-gold-cost-in-bangalore-chennai-hyderabad-1536143.html?ref=DMDesc
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~HT.178~PR.474~ED.472~GR.538~VG.HM~
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NewsTranscript
00:05Hello and welcome, you are watching Good Returns show Commodity Catch, I am Arnema Javedi.
00:11Today, Commodity Catch is very important to talk about Gold and Silver.
00:15Because this whole week, Gold and Silver is the Consolidation.
00:19What is the reason behind this Consolidation?
00:22The reason is the dollar index.
00:25There are many factors that affect the gold and silver.
00:29But the dollar index became a major factor,
00:33which has a lot of views on its own.
00:37Because it is not only the bullion market,
00:40it is affected by the whole world.
00:42Especially the whole world.
00:44So, the dollar index has something like this,
00:47that the whole week, we saw that gold and silver silver
00:51has been affected by the dollar index.
00:53So, the dollar index is major.
00:55If we talk about dollar index,
00:57then it has reached 100 dollars.
01:00And to be exact, 101 dollars is traded on the dollar index.
01:05Now, it has also increased in US Treasury.
01:09If we talk about US Treasury,
01:10the US Treasury is 10 years old,
01:13it is given to them to five percent.
01:15And the whole global scenario has been affected
01:18by the dollar index.
01:20Of course, the dollar index will be affected by the dollar index.
01:22How will the dollar index be affected by the dollar index?
01:24To make it a different change for both commodities?
01:25What will the dollar index mean?
01:29What are all the purpose of the total and the dollar indexed?
01:31We've got to understand this today.
01:33We have a very special guest.
01:38First of all, welcome to GoodReturns and thank you for joining us.
01:42Thank you, thanks for inviting me.
01:45Ranesha ma'am, it is very important to understand the picture of gold and silver.
01:50One is that after our conversation, there is a lot of conversation in this.
01:53In this, there is a lot of things in gold and silver.
01:56And if you look at this whole week, we are looking at gold and silver in the consolidation phase.
02:01If we try to look at the numbers, then, short term correction or long term fall?
02:08Because there are a lot of factors.
02:10The dollar index is a major factor.
02:11But with that, there are also many geopolitical things that are affecting gold and silver.
02:17How do you see this?
02:18I think this is a correction in a long term bull market.
02:22The bull market started in 2020.
02:26And I think this bull market will go until 2028.
02:30Until Trump is in power.
02:33So commodities in bull markets are about 8-10 years.
02:37And gold is in a similar bull market.
02:40And if you look at this year, gold's rage touched the all-time high of $5,600 in January.
02:48After that, the prices were corrected by $4,000 in mid-2026.
02:54And now, the prices are consolidated over $4,500.
02:59So, this is a kind of consolidation phase, correction phase.
03:04You can't say that bull market is finished.
03:08And for a healthy bull market, this phase is very important for a healthy bull market.
03:12And the structural drivers that are going on before.
03:17Like central bank accumulation, de-dollarization, geo-political risk.
03:22These are all these kinds of things that are intact.
03:25And you have to understand that these kinds of things have been digested,
03:29You know, after a parabolic run.
03:32So, there will be new factors to take the rally over.
03:36Like the US, Fiscal Debt, National Debt, which is above $40 trillion.
03:42This is the biggest elephant in the room which will give a new trigger and I think gradually
03:50we will see this rally again.
03:53If we consolidate it, this should be seen in short term correction as you said in long
04:01term bull market there is a small correction phase, but the dollar index is very necessary
04:08because as we have told that the dollar index is trading at 100, if you look at the dollar index
04:14it is 100 to be exact, treasury yield which is 10 years of US has reached 5% to the
04:22US.
04:23Now how is this scenario for gold and silver?
04:25If you look at this, gold and silver should be a big hit, which is not visible.
04:34Consolidation phase, but the result of this scenario is not visible.
04:39So what are some factors that support gold and silver?
04:43Yes, it is a very good question.
04:45You said that the dollar index is 100, crude oil prices are 100 dollars, treasury yields, long term
04:54which is 5% of the dollar index.
04:59It is all because of fundamentals is very strong and this year, all these factors are in play.
05:09So all these things are already discounted.
05:13And every short short selling or profit booking, which we are seeing,
05:20Central banks have been very active buying in gold.
05:24In the past 4-5 years, the dollar index was $1,000.
05:39So the investment demand is very strong.
05:42It is very strong.
05:43It has a little impact on the retail demand because of the correction in prices.
05:46But the biggest factor that is supporting the prices,
05:49that is strong fundamentals.
05:51The US macro economic situation is very big.
05:54And that is why I think the safe event demand will continue from central banks and retail investors.
06:00If the level of the 101 dollar index is not able to raise the price of $1,000, then
06:06the dollar index will create a negative impact?
06:12Is there a level of the dollar index that you should be afraid of?
06:15And what is the dollar index going up?
06:17It is because the US Fed rate has come in September and expected that one more rate
06:25can come in October or December.
06:28That's why we are seeing that the dollar index is $100 and $1,000.
06:33$102 is a very strong resistance zone.
06:37I think that the dollar index might not sustain it.
06:41And there is a reversal again.
06:43Because whatever interest rates are high, this is all short-term.
06:48Long-term, the US can't tick the interest rates on long-term.
06:53Because its debt level is quite high.
06:55It's a strong resistance.
06:55And if we look at the interest rates on long-term, the interest rates on long-term,
06:59it's more than $1,000,000,000.
07:01Long-term, the interest rates are not sustainable.
07:04This is all because of high inflation.
07:08The interest rates are increasing.
07:09Once the inflation is in control, I think we will see that an easing cycle starts.
07:15So, 102 is the level.
07:16I think there will not break.
07:18It's a strong resistance.
07:20And if we see that in short-term, there is a blip that the dollar index is higher.
07:25So, it can remain negative in short-term for gold.
07:29But I don't think it would sustain.
07:31And then we will take a reverse.
07:33Okay.
07:34On the dollar index, the major factor for gold and silver,
07:38it has been a long time for crude oil prices.
07:42And crude prices are now below $100,000.
07:45It has been seen before the US and Iran,
07:47after the tensions come after the US and Iran.
07:50But then, we will take the range of $100-$105,000.
07:54Because crude is very volatile.
07:56If it is consolidated in the range of $100-$105,000,
08:00and it doesn't go up,
08:01which we saw in the days,
08:03that crude price has also reached $110,000.
08:06And straight-of-hormuz,
08:08it is also very optimistic.
08:10That straight-of-hormuz will open,
08:12rather than Iran's statement,
08:13that we will do it properly,
08:16we will do it straight-of-hormuz.
08:18So, in this scenario,
08:20what will be the base case for gold?
08:22Consolidation case now?
08:24Or do we hope to go up on prices?
08:27Or do we hope to go up on gold-silver?
08:28Or do we hope to go up on gold-silver?
08:29Until these geopolitical tensions are not finished,
08:33a proper deal is not coming.
08:34I don't think so,
08:35that there is a big rally in gold and silver.
08:39The deal is finalized.
08:41Straight-of-hormuz is open.
08:42Crude oil price is $100,000.
08:46We have seen the safe event demand,
08:48because of supply and disruptions,
08:50that will go up.
08:52So, all these things will go up,
08:53until gold and silver will remain in consolidation phase.
08:57And the broad consolidation phase is $4,000 on downside,
09:01and $4,500 on upside.
09:04Similarly, for silver,
09:06$62.5 on downside,
09:08and $67.5 on upside.
09:11This is a strong support and resistance.
09:14It seems that gold and silver,
09:16as of now, will trade for a time being,
09:19until we see a proper solution.
09:21Yes,
09:22I think,
09:23I think,
09:24that a deal is going to be very soon.
09:25Because,
09:27U.S. President Donald Trump,
09:28has also emphasized,
09:31that if the deal is not finalized,
09:34then,
09:34they can face more problems,
09:36or more precautions,
09:37or even more problems,
09:39or face more problems.
09:40So,
09:41both sides are working towards it.
09:43I think,
09:43it's a high time,
09:44that there will be some deal,
09:45and gradually,
09:47these geopolitical tensions will end up.
09:48And,
09:49because of the concern of the inflation,
09:50and crude prices,
09:51will gradually come down.
09:53So,
09:54it will impact the treasury yields,
09:57and interest rates,
09:58which are high,
09:59and the expectations will end up.
10:00And definitely,
10:01it will support gold and silver.
10:03Okay.
10:04Ma'am,
10:04if we talk about this whole scenario,
10:06then,
10:06what are the important levels?
10:08What are the important levels?
10:09For the next week,
10:10basically,
10:10if we look from the traders' perspective,
10:12then,
10:12in which range of gold and silver?
10:16Domestically,
10:16I think,
10:171,50,000 to 1,54,000,
10:20this is a broad range,
10:21this week,
10:22for gold,
10:23for 1 week to 10 days.
10:25And,
10:26for silver,
10:26I think,
10:272,30,000 to 2,43,000.
10:30This is Rs.13,000.
10:31This is Rs.13,000.
10:32If we look at the price,
10:33In the same range,
10:34we can be expected to trade,
10:37because this week,
10:38this is a lackluster week,
10:40where there are no big economic data
10:42won't be released after the Fed hike.
10:46We saw last week.
10:46Last week,
10:47there was a huge power pack,
10:49where Fed has increased interest rate,
10:51and ECP has increased interest rate.
10:54So,
10:55it was a huge power pack week.
10:57last. In this week, there are no big moves expected. Consolidation is expected.
11:02As I mentioned, there are 4,000 rupees range for gold from 150 to 154 and for silver from
11:08230 to 243.
11:09Okay.
11:10A little long-term perspective from you, Rinisha. What is the outlook of gold and silver
11:16in which way will both trade in the bullion market? Or give a little bit of long-term
11:23perspective.
11:25See, after a parabolic run that we saw in 2025, this is the consolidation phase. This is
11:34very healthy for gold and silver. If you will see, if you talk about the next 3 years,
11:41I think that prices will double here because it is very strong. But looking at the current
11:47conditions, where there are a little geopolitical tensions between US and Iran and the Fed rate
11:53hike cycle started.
11:55So, next 2-3 months, I think that prices are going to be a consolidation phase. But biasness
12:01will remain upside. I am expecting that $4,900 to $5,000 will touch by the end of this year.
12:09And silver could touch $75 to $80 depending on which gold has its performance. So, at least,
12:17you know, I am expecting that $8,000 to $10 percent upside in the next 6 months
12:21will be seen in gold. And $15 to $20 percent upside will be seen in silver from current levels.
12:34So, if you are a long-term investor, you should definitely go for buy-on-dips. But not blindly,
12:45you should be able to buy-on-dips. Look out for, you know, various strategies. If you are long-term
12:51investor, you can go for SIP. That is the best option. If you are investing in ETFs,
12:59mutual funds. So, that is a better option. Rather than jumping into, you know,
13:03futures market, you have to buy-on-dips. So, you have to buy-on-dips. So,
13:13yes, in this market, I would say, SIP. Every month,
13:17invest in the next 3 years, there are very good returns expected.
13:21All right. Globally, if you look at it, we have seen many brokerages reports,
13:27global banks' reports, which indicates that whatever Middle East tension is
13:32going on, because of the global growth, the growth will be a little bit further.
13:39The rest of the entire world will be a little bit further. But from India,
13:42many bankers have optimistic views, if you look at it. If this global growth is a little bit
13:49of gold, then it will impact on gold and silver. Or specifically, if I say,
13:55there are many such global banks who are looking at silver with a little bit.
13:59Can it impact on silver or what is negative? Yes, absolutely. You said it.
14:03Because silver is an industrial metal too, rather than just being a precious metal.
14:09So, the 50% of silver is used as industrial metal. And 50% of silver is used as precious
14:17metal.
14:17So, yes, definitely, if there are concerns in global growth because of high inflation,
14:23high interest rate. And why is this happening? Because U.S.-Iran tensions have started.
14:29That's why oil prices have been increased. So, this has an impact on inflation.
14:33And that's why interest rates around the globe are increasing.
14:36In fact, the Fed has increased interest rates. In fact, you will see that emerging economies,
14:42develop economies, there is a cycle of interest rates in all areas.
14:46So, this cycle is going on, generally, we see that in such economic cycles,
14:51there is definitely an impact on growth. And GDP is always less when interest rates are increasing.
15:01So, yes, because of the interest rates are increasing. So, it definitely impacts the industry, sorry,
15:06the growth too. So, yes.
15:07So, yes.
15:08So, this is the impact on silver.
15:10So, yes.
15:19If we see a little bit of a low price, if we see a little bit of a low price,
15:24if we see a little bit of a low price, then we will not see some downside on the new
15:26price.
15:28So, that will be compensated, which is a little bit of a low price for degrowth.
15:34and new usage because of the prices, there is no impact on the price.
15:37I am seeing a lot of impact on the silver prices.
15:41We do not see new highs in silver, but yes, prices will not see much downside here.
15:47I don't think that under $55-$60, silver prices will be traded.
15:52That is a base that we have seen in mid-2026.
15:55I don't think precious metals, which is our base, which we have made in mid-2026.
16:00That is a barest, bare case scenario that we have already seen.
16:06The worst is already behind us and gradually prices should consolidate and rise.
16:11That is what is expected.
16:13Interest rate, out of curiosity, out of October, there is a policy of RBI.
16:18The expectation of interest rate hike here is because there is already a lot of such countries
16:24where central banks have made rate hike.
16:26For specific, if I talk about it, FED has made rate hike.
16:30Besides, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, we have heard about rate hikes.
16:34Now, what is the pressure on the RBI?
16:37And how is the gold-silver market?
16:40Yes, you have said that around the globe,
16:44as I said, there is an interest rate hike cycle.
16:48So, it may happen that we will see in India next month that the industry hike hike will be
16:53because of high inflation.
16:55And that is why we will see that the impact of the RBI will come.
16:58The RBI has already depreciated quite a lot in this year from the level of 1991 to 1996.
17:05So, yes, because of this depreciation, we have seen that the price of RBI has gained a lot in India
17:14in India.
17:14Rather than if you compare it with international prices.
17:18So, 5-6% in India will get more returns.
17:22So, yes, it will impact indirectly.
17:24If there are interest rates in India here,
17:27then it impacts the RBI, which is a little depreciation.
17:30And that is why gold-silver prices are increasing domestically.
17:35So, I think, yes, one interest rate hike is expected this year from RBI too.
17:41It could come in October or in the next few months.
17:44But, yes, it is already discounted in RBI.
17:46The RBI has already touched 96-97 levels.
17:50So, I don't think there will be a lot of impact.
17:52It will impact gold and silver.
17:54But, yes, it will make a lot of pressure.
17:58All right.
18:00One major event is that Xi Jinping is going to meet Donald Trump with Donald Trump.
18:06And this meeting is very important.
18:08Because China and the U.S. of the relations of the entire world
18:11will know how it is going.
18:13How does Donald Trump put tariffs on China?
18:18And if this meeting is successful,
18:19will be successful,
18:20then many tariffs will be out.
18:22Now, what is the impact of this successful meeting?
18:26What is the impact of bullion market?
18:28Do gold and silver,
18:29like safe and demand metals,
18:32will come down below?
18:34And prices will go down?
18:38Yes, we all know that from the last 7-8 years,
18:42the U.S. and China's relations that are for toss.
18:46And that's why we are seeing that the season of tariffs started from China.
18:54Yes.
18:54And gradually,
18:56when Trump's second power came,
19:00then there were also tariffs on the other countries.
19:03So, yes, the uncertainty in the market,
19:06this is now being made,
19:08when Trump is in power.
19:10In the past 2 years,
19:11there are 3 things,
19:12which are supporting gold and silver prices.
19:16One is tariffs.
19:18Second is,
19:19what is the moment of Fed's movement?
19:21The rate of cut expectations
19:23and how will the Fed behave?
19:26And third is,
19:27the geopolitical tensions.
19:29So, these 3 things
19:30are the biggest uncertainty in the market.
19:32And,
19:33after 4-5 months,
19:34in the future,
19:34you will see that there was no news.
19:37There was no news.
19:38It was only the geopolitical tensions
19:39and the Fed's interstate meeting
19:41will be cut.
19:43The prices were reacting to this.
19:45But, yes,
19:46the tariffs of the concern
19:47is a very big issue.
19:50What is the meeting now?
19:51What are the discussions in China?
19:54What is the deal finalized?
19:55It is very important
19:56that the other countries
19:58will also be tariffs.
20:00These are all very important.
20:03So,
20:03yes,
20:04this event is very important.
20:06But,
20:06I think that
20:07we can't expect a big positivity
20:11because
20:13in the US,
20:14there is a trend
20:17in the US.
20:18And,
20:19the nature of the Trump
20:19is that
20:22that
20:22they want to bring the US
20:23to the US.
20:25And,
20:25whatever countries
20:26trade,
20:27trade deficits
20:28will be put on tariffs.
20:31So,
20:32in spite of this meeting,
20:32I think,
20:34tariffs will be made
20:35and
20:36they will support
20:37the prices.
20:39So,
20:40I don't think
20:41that is going to happen
20:42as of now.
20:43Okay.
20:44So,
20:44in all these geopolitical scenarios,
20:47traders
20:48who are
20:48investing in the bullion market
20:49and investing
20:51and investing
20:52what are they
20:53going to do?
20:54What is their strategy?
20:55What is their position size,
20:56stop loss,
20:57or overnight risk?
20:58And,
20:58how do they
20:59manage this market?
21:00Yeah.
21:00this market is very difficult
21:02for traders.
21:04Let's see.
21:05Because,
21:05a range has been
21:06made,
21:06as I mentioned before,
21:07I have told you,
21:08gold,
21:081,50,000 to 1,50,000
21:11to 1,55,000
21:11in trade
21:12in the past 2 months.
21:14Silver,
21:14this range is also
21:162,30,000
21:17and 2,43,000
21:18to 2,45,000.
21:19So,
21:20yes,
21:21stop losses
21:21and support
21:23and
21:25short positions
21:26are
21:26based on levels
21:28that will be
21:29for traders.
21:31But,
21:32I would say
21:32that this market
21:33is not
21:34just for traders
21:36for traders.
21:36You have to
21:37have a good
21:38risk management
21:39to do
21:40in futures.
21:41You have to
21:42your positions
21:44down.
21:44So,
21:45you have to
21:46your options
21:46to use.
21:47You have to
21:48use some strategies
21:48in options
21:50such as
21:51strangle,
21:52straddle,
21:54protective put,
21:55covered call
21:56which
21:56can hedge your positions
21:58properly.
21:59So,
22:00only in futures
22:01play,
22:02you have to hedge
22:03your positions
22:04in options
22:05That is the way
22:07that you have
22:08position sizing
22:10and you have
22:11no risk
22:12risk.
22:13Just keeping
22:14a stop loss
22:15that won't
22:16help.
22:17there is so much
22:17volatility
22:18in the market
22:18so,
22:20rather than
22:21keeping
22:21a stop loss,
22:22I would recommend
22:22that you have
22:22to hedge
22:23options
22:23and use these
22:25strategies.
22:25you have to
22:26Another question.
22:28Can commodity
22:29trade in futures
22:31is risky
22:31or can you
22:33be able to trade
22:34in futures?
22:34Because
22:35gold and silver
22:36are also very interested
22:38when gold
22:39and silver
22:39returns
22:40started.
22:40started.
22:41Yes,
22:43like last year
22:43we got fast returns
22:44to gold
22:46investors
22:47through
22:47the future
22:48market
22:49investment
22:50through
22:51ETFs
22:52and SIP
22:53and
22:53you have to
22:54get good returns
22:55so,
22:56yes,
22:56everybody is
22:57very much
22:59attracted
23:02to this market
23:03so,
23:05you will get good returns
23:06in futures
23:07but
23:08yes,
23:09you have to manage
23:10your positions
23:11well.
23:11you have to manage
23:12well.
23:14You should not
23:14much leverage
23:15to start with
23:18mini contracts
23:19which
23:20if there is a big
23:21moment
23:21then you will not
23:22much impact.
23:23Margin calls
23:24M2M
23:25you have to keep
23:26attention
23:27and
23:28expiry
23:29after 2 months
23:30so,
23:31you don't expire
23:32your contract
23:33and roll over
23:34so,
23:35you have to keep
23:35attention
23:35so,
23:37if you don't want
23:38all these things
23:38long term
23:40invest
23:41then
23:42go for
23:43ETFs
23:44but
23:44if you want more returns
23:46leverage positions
23:47then
23:47you can go for
23:49futures
23:50and
23:51you have to experience
23:52at least
23:541-2
23:54years
23:55how gold
23:56market
23:56then
23:57start
23:57gold
23:58futures
24:00otherwise
24:01it is very risky
24:02one trade
24:03can wipe out
24:04your entire
24:06investment money
24:36so,
24:38you have to
24:39thank you for joining us
24:40gold
24:40silver market
24:41now
24:41you have to get
24:43a better way
24:43to understand
24:45our viewers
24:46too
24:47thank you ma'am
24:48thank you
24:49thank you
24:50thank you
24:50thank you
24:52thank you