Is housing on hold until after the midterms?

Name: Is housing on hold until after the midterms?
Uploaded: 2026-09-25T08:00:18+00:00
Duration: 19 min 37 s
Channel: HousingWire

00:10Welcome, everyone. I'm joined by lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about how the midterms

00:16could affect housing. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending stories on HousingWire.com.

00:21First is hot economic data sends mortgage rates to yearly highs, followed by Jenny Mays Gormley

00:28signals no change to FHA MIP for now. Then we have house canary files for chapter 11 bankruptcy in

00:35New Jersey. And the mortgage rulebook is getting less prescriptive. Finally, we have new home sales

00:42are at an eight month high, but still stuck after 10 years. Okay, we're ready to start Logan. I would

00:48say welcome back to the podcast, but you're the one who's been holding down the fort since I've been

00:52out. So I'm the one to welcome back, but let's get started. Well, I mean, you know, there were

00:59rumors, you know, that you and I had a riff because you were part of that rap duo video that

01:06we put on

01:07and nobody's seen you for a while. So people are wondering if you were talking to me anymore.

01:12Just remember that there's a lot more coming. It's getting more advanced over the years. So

01:17you got to get used to it. On AI. Yeah. I was like, what are you doing with that rap

01:21video? No,

01:21no. I'm never out of the game. I think it's great. I am at my daughter's. It's a wedding

01:27week for my daughter. So thank you so much for doing so much this week. But we have a lot

01:31to

01:31talk about. I mean, I feel like every single hour when I check stuff, it's crazy. So, you know,

01:37talk about where we are, especially like, you know, we're going to talk about like,

01:40does housing need to wait till after the midterms at this point? You know, I got this question.

01:45It's today's Thursday morning. So Thursday morning, the 10-year yield has come down all

01:54the way to 5.09%. That's where we are right now. Yesterday was a historic day. The 10-year yield

02:00started at 496 and went all the way to 514. That's meaning something because 514 was like a key level,

02:10but it was back to 2006 timeframe. And I remember doing a video on Instagram early in the morning.

02:16I said, all right, we're at 506, 507. The next level is 514. Literally an hour later, we're there.

02:21The last time we had this kind of volatility was Liberation Day or Godzilla tariffs, how I call it.

02:28And, you know, in the article that we wrote about, you know, about a hot housing market and

02:33everything yesterday's, the manufacturing PMI data broke out to multi-year highs. And then voting Fed

02:43member Barr sounded very hawkish. So in that article, I talked about how people have been

02:48tracking this since August of 2020. And pretty much all the move higher on the 10-year yield has come

02:55in a three-day timeframe after the payroll reports or the Fed chairman or vice president or Waller,

03:01all of them talk. So, and that's only 24% of the trading since August of 2020, but that's pretty

03:08much all the move on the 10-year yield higher. So yesterday, Barr gets to be put into that category

03:15on such a violent day on the 10-year yield. But this morning, the 10-year yield was down,

03:21the markets were calm, oil prices were up a little bit, jobless claims were good under 200,000.

03:26But then the pirates, the pirates are back here again. And their headline, they shot a military

03:34base in Saudi Arabia, oil shot up, the 10-year yield went up like six, seven basis points within

03:41a minute. So we're in this, we're getting closer to midterms. And obviously the Iranians want to make

03:50this as painful as possible for Trump. So the next president who thinks about going in, you know,

03:57this is what's going to happen. So the question I got, do people just need to wait until after the

04:03midterms? But I mean, what does that mean? How do you wait till after the midterms? I mean,

04:08like basically like between here and there, it's just going to be a lot of volatility.

04:12And then we can actually start to chart a path after that?

04:17I don't believe in this hypothesis that because of this event, people are just going to stop their

04:24plans into buying or selling homes and then just wait until after the midterms. Who knows? It could

04:32be worse after the midterms and we could be going into a new escalation phase after that and things get

04:39even more hectic. So if something like that was ever occurring, we would see it in our new listings

04:45data that the sellers just go, Hey, listen, I mean, it's late in the year anyway, we're almost in

04:51October. So it's not like, you know, we're in the prime seasonal time for housing anyway. So if people

04:59wanted to do that, we'll see it in our new listings data. It's just not there. And so I understand

05:06the

05:07question that was given. And I think this morning I'll be on CNBC squat box talking about housing in

05:14general, but I don't think that's going to be a thing. If it was a thing, we'll see it in

05:21our

05:21trackers data and we could talk about it, but I just haven't seen the new listings data. But if you're

05:27going to have a hypothesis about this, then it's going to happen in the next two or three weeks.

05:31And then that's it. So if it pops up, you can make a case that some people just go, Hey,

05:37listen,

05:37I'm just going to wait until after the midterms because Trump keeps on talking about after the

05:41midterms, it's all over. And there, there is a, there is a theory that, you know, the Iranians

05:45start to lose leverage more and more as they go into the midterms until after, but in any case,

05:51this is still here. We're going to, that will be going into its eighth month.

05:56Uh, um, but I, I just haven't seen the housing market stop in that, uh, uh, regard.

06:02Now purchase apps. I know, uh, I'm a day late here. I mean, purchase apps came out already.

06:06You've already talked about it, but like, what, how does that play into this? Uh, as far as you're

06:11like, you know, I mean, they were down, but they weren't down that much.

06:15I mean, we were down 1% week to week. Uh, uh, the year over year data, the previous week

06:21was down 19.

06:22It was down 11. I mean, it's just the same thing. The, the, the, the longer you stay at seven

06:26and

06:26keep on going higher, the weaker, the demand is, but on a week to week basis, it's, uh, not much,

06:32not much has been happening. And always remember the existing home sales market is different than

06:37the new home sales market. We're going to talk about the new home sales market a little bit

06:39later, but that hit an eight month high. Oh, Sarah, you, you missed out on the Redfin news.

06:45You know, um, this week Redfin, Redfin, uh, came out and said it was the hottest home

06:51price growth in 12 months up 3.7% year over year. And then everybody's all, what the hell?

06:57I was like, homies, y'all, we've been talking about this for 15 months. If you're still running

07:01on this, I don't know what else to tell you. So if you can't have the highest amount of sellers

07:06in history, the lowest amount, and then come out in the same website and tell people it's the

07:10hottest home price growth in 12 months during the same timeframe. So I think a lot of people have

07:14figured it out. There's something wrong there, right? That's just not going to work. So that

07:18happened. And then new home sales hit an eight month high. So there's a, there's a lot of

07:22conflicting data, uh, just kind of take Redfin to the side, take the new home sales side, focus on

07:28the existing home sales market and focus on the tracker. Right. And that's what we want to always

07:33put our energy and weight in the slope of the curve of what we look at active inventory, new listings,

07:40data price cut percentage. It's been pretty stable so far, but now we're getting into more of an

07:46escalation phase where rates keep on going higher and higher. And I think today, uh, the 10 year,

07:52uh, the 10 year yield was as high as out of five, five, 17, five, 18, uh, mortgage rates were

07:577.37%.

07:59If this was 2024, cause the last time mortgage rates were here was in 2024, 2024 spreads would be

08:06about, uh, uh, eight 13 on mortgage rates. But so far the velocity of data considering everything we

08:14have seen has been pretty stable yet. You know, we haven't seen an escalation and, uh, uh, inventory

08:22shooting up. We haven't seen new listings data tank like it did in the second half of 2022. Uh, um,

08:28price cut percentages are slightly higher on a year of year basis. Our weekly pending sales

08:32data is slightly down year over year. I remember near 6%, we can grow above 6.64, especially above

08:40seven. We don't. So we're seeing a slight, uh, decline on a year of year basis. So considering

08:44all the drama, it's just, there's not much happening. And I think like we've talked about

08:49for months now, I don't know how many people can talk about housing in that regard and show it without

08:55doing these sensational headlines of the highest sellers ever recorded in history, the lowest amount

09:00of demand, but home price growth is the fastest in 12 months. And then the new home sales market

09:04just hit an eight month high, which confused a lot of people too. Okay. Well, let's get into that.

09:09But first I would say that like, um, that's why the tracker is so important. Um, it, because you can

09:14look at it. I mean, you can go back and look all the weeks and then see this because you

09:18don't want

09:18to, you don't want to plan your business around some like, Oh, it'll get better after the midterms

09:22to your point. Also great timing for our mortgage banking summit. Yes. The mortgage banking

09:28summit. And, you know, um, you know, it's, it's fascinating because, you know, I'll be on CNBC

09:36this morning, but it was March of this year, you know, where I went on fast money and the whole

09:44picture was, Hey, listen, housing can grow this year, but if the Iran conflict raises rates,

09:52then it's going to be different. So, uh, uh, the mortgage banking summit is going to take the

09:56aggregate data. Cause we have a lot to talk about. I mean, we have a lot to talk about with

10:00the fed funds rate and the new fed rate hike cycle and economic growth and all this. And I think

10:06it's,

10:06again, I just, I just feel like people in the mortgage and real estate industry are getting

10:11information about, you know, things are going to collapse. The AI is going to collapse and everything

10:15and rates are going to go down. And, you know, there are ways to track that data better than

10:21sensationalizing a theory that just doesn't happen yet. And that's why we talk so much about the

10:2610 year yield and channels and spreads and everything and economic data on a week to week

10:29basis. I don't know how many people that's their time and something like that.

10:34Super important right now. Okay. Well, let's talk about home sales,

10:37new home sales. Yes. And new home sales, even, you know, uh,

10:42new home sales was shocked to a lot of people and, uh, um, it hit an eight month high. Now

10:48considering

10:49everything that has gone on this week, last week, you know, with a builder's confidence index

10:54hitting pretty much a near cycle lows, the new home sales market comes out with an, with an eight

11:00month high. However, it's the same story for 10 years. Now the new home sales market is different

11:09than the existing home sales market because it can still buy down rates. So just remember it. Yeah.

11:16Just remember that you're, you're working from a, uh, a housing market, that sector with sub 6% mortgage

11:22rates. So even though rates have gone on, it does cost the builders more to do this. Why this is

11:29why

11:29profit margins is a really big thing for the new home sales market and construction cycle. So you can

11:35have the small builders confidence index get very low, but the new home sales market will be stuck

11:41here for a while until those profit margins come down low enough that they can't do it. And what's,

11:47what's occurred is that the total units completed for sale, that data line is now down to 113,000.

11:54Now, 113,000 doesn't sound like a lot to the general public, but the builders typically don't

12:01like to build more permits into the pipeline or, or land buying or anything like that when completed

12:07units sale or above 120,000. So they're making progress. Um, but it's still a profit margin story

12:15versus how much they can buy down rates. So I, I get it. It's, it's, it's, it's really confusing to

12:21have the Redfin data come out show hottest home price growth and then new home sales come out at

12:26eight month high, but kind of take that away. The existing home sales market is different. It's not

12:31a sub 6% mortgage market. In fact, even if you didn't have tariffs, even if you didn't have conflict,

12:36even if you didn't have the AI, uh, boom. And just to give you guys some perspective here,

12:41if you take all the money that's being invested in like AI data centers, everything,

12:46it's about $10 trillion from 2025, all the way to 2032. Now you can make a case that, you know,

12:53that money, all of it won't get spent because it's, you know, there it's, it's not going to be

12:58a good ROI eventually over time, but that's like 3.6% of GDP. Like the last time something like

13:06that

13:06happened was 1870 to 1890 with a railroad boom. And that was about, I think 2.2% of GDP.

13:13So we

13:13have a lot of money coming into data centers, but even if that wasn't the case, let's say there's

13:18no AI boom. It's really hard to get mortgage rates under 5.75% unless the fed gets dovish or

13:24something to that regard. So, uh, confusing new home sales to the general, but just remember it's a

13:30sub 6% and this thing just goes back and forth for many, many years now. Uh, we're still stuck

13:37in this 10 year channel. Like you take the COVID boom and sales away and we've gone nowhere for 10

13:42years, but for now, 2022, three, four, five, and six, it does tend to grow when we get down here

13:50to

13:50these levels and it doesn't tend to go above the 2019 area. So we're kind of like 570 to 730.

13:57We're just stuck here. Uh, um, but I, I, I do understand the confusing headline of new home

14:03sales being at eight month high when their confidence index are at cycle lows and mortgage

14:07rates are rising. So, I mean, you've given the context that you're talking about the large

14:11builders, the small builders are not maybe, uh, you know, uh, buying things down as much,

14:16but isn't there even a limit for, you know, I mean, so if, if rates get to eight, if eight,

14:21if rates got to eight and a half, at what point do the builders still keep things under six?

14:27I mean, it's a profit margin story. So each, each company has different, uh, uh, uh, cashflow

14:33to kind of work with, but it does become more expensive, right? That's the thing. It does become

14:38more expensive. So some of them might have to do a mix of cutting prices and rates. They, their job

14:43is remember they sell homes as a commodity. So all they care about is making it work to get that

14:47buyer

14:48in. And then that's it. They go to the next one, right? This is not like a home seller that

14:52needs to

14:52sell the house and buy the house. There's this whole fight club rule, Sarah, you know, um,

14:58that's right. What do we, what do we always say about the new, new, we do not mix the new

15:03home

15:03sales and the existing home sales, two different things. I didn't kick it off. Sarah June, right?

15:11You and I were both in Iran at night. You and I were both were in Iran in 1979.

15:16It's true. So I don't, I don't get to speak more. Can you speak a little Farsi?

15:20Okay. So I was in, um, middle school when I was in Iran. So the only Farsi note, uh, words

15:27I know

15:27are not good words. They were, they would be what you would hear slaying as a middle schooler. So no,

15:31I'm not going to say any of those words.

15:33Aziz, um, okay. I won't, I won't go there, but, um, so when we, when, uh, when we talk about

15:42the

15:42builders, small builders versus large, just remember so much consolidation has also happened

15:47over the last 10 or 15 years. So the bigger builders are just a bigger share of the, uh,

15:51pie now. Uh, but the, the builders confidence index is just for small builders. So it's a

15:57little bit confusing. There's a lot of confusing things in housing, unless you get someone like

16:01the chart daddy to try to make sense of it all. But, uh, um, but yeah, I thought, I thought,

16:06uh,

16:07the new home sales can be explained. And, you know, I, I understand the logic about,

16:11do we just have to wait until the, to the midterms is over and you can make the case that,

16:16you know, either the Republicans are going to lose the house and the Senate together and

16:20the conflict's going to end one way, or Trump just has to think about his legacy and find something

16:25to do, or Iran basically can't keep on doing this, you know, for their economy as well.

16:30These sanctions aren't like the sanctions that they've dealt with, with 40 years in the past.

16:35There, there is the longer this goes, the more problematic it is. So one way or another,

16:41this gets resolved either politically or financially, or I, I, whenever they say there's

16:46military options, military options aren't working. So whenever like Marco Rubio says,

16:51Trump has military options, it's not, it hasn't worked here. So, uh, uh, but we're getting closer

16:56to the midterms and, uh, we'll see what happens in, in November.

17:00I mean, we could, I could see, and you've talked about the fact that if the Iranians are running

17:04out of options themselves, then making it about the midterms, which is what they've said. If,

17:10if Trump does, you know, if, if the Republicans lose a lot of seats in the Congress, then they can

17:15kind of be like, okay, we've made our point now because it's not good for their economy. So from

17:20that perspective, I can see how it's like, maybe that will be a turning point, but boy, it feels like

17:24we are, we are counting on some things we have no control over. You know, they are, they are looking

17:31at our markets, you know, uh, I, I know it's not the Iranian parliament guy that's actually tweeting,

17:37but they're, they, they talk about the 10 year yield. They talk about oil prices, you know, uh,

17:42so their, their weapon of choice is like Ra's al Ghul and Batman weapon of choice for him was, uh,

17:48economics. So this is basically, they, they don't have the ability to fight our military in the open.

17:53So, uh, this is it in regards. So we'll, we'll see, you know, there's just, as just today was a

17:58very, very crazy day to see how the hooties now involved, the pirates are here. Um, and then

18:05because of that oil prices shot up and the 10 year yield shot up, this is not an environment where,

18:09you know, you housing is good when it's very boring and there's not much volatility like early

18:14in the year, remember January and February was not much was going on. It was no, not much was going

18:21on back then. Oh yeah. I did an AI with me doing, you know, the Titanic scene with somebody who

18:27had

18:27a 6% mortgage on a head, you know, out there. So, and then I put myself in the dunce,

18:35you know,

18:36the meme where you're sitting at a party and then you're thinking that, you know, everyone's having

18:39fun. And I'm like, they don't know the 10 year yields at five, 12, you know, so we try to

18:44make

18:44some laughter out of this, you know, chaotic situation, but yeah. Now what a change of year.

18:50I mean, to go where we were in January, February, even March, April, May, and June. Uh, but once

18:55you get above 6.64 and the conflict excelled in the oil yield trade, it really took it to another

19:00level. So it all at the end, you know, something changes, but, uh, it'll definitely be a very,

19:07very fascinating mortgage banking summit, uh, where I talk about a lot of things, not only for,

19:11for this year, but basically for 2027 and how the federal reserve is going to think about 2027 as

19:15well. Thank you for keeping us all up to date. Thank you for writing so many stories. I'm not

19:21even there to edit. You are doing a great job and, uh, I appreciate you, Logan. We'll talk soon.

19:26Pleasure. Enjoy the wedding.

Is housing on hold until after the midterms?

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