00:00no one in that moment right at around 10 30 at night on saturday would have thought it's going
00:06to be the gators minus three and a half now like the hook has popped here that's how much people
00:13keep clicking florida the one thing i will offer up before i really want your your take on this is
00:19remember people almost just this past saturday were field goal underdogs at home okay and home
00:26field advantage matters in this sport that means if they played that game in death valley they would
00:31have been catching over a touchdown comfortably so just keep that in mind here as you dive into
00:38this football game that 21 verse 4 is misleading what do you make of this number here today dave
00:45with the gators and the rebels i was just as surprised as anyone to see this pop at at two
00:50to open up their two two and a half and continue to go up um and i'm a florida alum
00:55you know you know
00:55i'm not gonna hide any of that and i was surprised at this line i thought maybe it'd be right
00:59about
00:59even even maybe old miss minus one i was listening to something yesterday josh pate was on with busting
01:05with the boys and he were discussing this exact thing which is why we love what we do because i
01:09had a whole five minute segment specifically on this line and he said he spoke with the sports book
01:15etc we know it's in gainsville we know we're going to give them two and a half to three points
01:18because of home field but if florida is still a three and a half point favorite you're telling me that
01:23on a neutral field they would be about even and they weren't looking at it that way and they said
01:27that there was an extra boost that they gave florida because of the letdown spot for old miss that the
01:34books actually added two to two and a half points to florida because of what you're looking at is the
01:40ultimate letdown spot of you going and beating a top 10 team at home you add the coach nonsense and
01:47all that and that this is a beautiful perfect storm of a letdown spot so they added more to the
01:52florida line i'm not sure i'm buying as much was added to it but you also have to look at
01:58the
01:58florida offense as to why this line might be where it is kevin this is a team that has scored
02:0254 points
02:03per game second in the nation behind georgia 544 yards per game what buster faulkner has brought to
02:10this offense this was an offense that was 102nd in the country in yards per game last season and now
02:16we're third in the country with 544 yards per game and it's not just the yards and the points because
02:21you know they did play campbell they did play fau but they did play a good auburn team they're also
02:27in the 99th percentile in epa per play points per drive offensive success rate their offense is
02:33averaging eight yards per play right now and they played a good auburn team so if this offense continues
02:40to do well and the one thing that i do want to point out which is why i like florida
02:44you got jaden ball
02:45one of the best running backs in the country he's number two in yards number one in touchdowns they're
02:51going up against an old miss defense that can't stop the run they're allowing 159 rushing yards per
02:58game on the ground and 4.1 yards per carry that's not a formula to break and stop florida and
03:04the
03:04number one running back in the country so to me you look at this line you got florida with home
03:10field
03:10you got lsu in the letdown spot and you have a situation where florida's strength they got a top
03:16running back goes against old miss's weakness and being able to stop the run which is why i go florida
03:22on this one you know this is a situation where because i didn't know what the number was going to
03:28be
03:28i knew this game was coming up i thought man this is going to be you know a spot where
03:33i'd love to bet
03:35florida but i didn't think this was going to be the number and i know there are people who
03:41listen man they bet openers they got you know cheap money line prices they're they're certainly
03:47got you know florida in under three and that's great which is what i did yeah right i got them
03:52at two and a half so we're good and that makes a difference right um for no pun intended i
03:57think
03:57the juice has been squeezed out of this orange though now right and i'm not stepping up to bet
04:01florida but i'm also now not going to bet a team that i don't necessarily like in this game
04:05the number though that has continued to catch my eyes is the total here at 58 and a half
04:11because this is where and dave just gave everybody the rundown of how good the florida offense is
04:16so i'll do what's probably unnecessary and remind everybody that trinidad champ place is pretty much
04:23an automatic 30 points guys as it all against lsu last week they score 32 and the two playoff games
04:29has a dog 39 against georgia 27 against miami in that semi-final there were a couple of games last
04:35year in the regular season yes lane was still the coach that's why i'm hyper focusing on the games
04:38where lane was gone but still they went to georgia and oklahoma and scored 35 and 34 in those games
04:45respectively so i'm not going to bet an all miss team total because i don't want to leave the
04:50gators out of this party i that that's not interesting to me but what i know about if you
04:57said hey give me a final score 35 31 seems you know florida seems completely in line with you know
05:06kind of what i see here people talk about getting up and i'm not that chambliss wasn't up not the
05:14kawan lacy wasn't up but those guys are just stars it's the old miss defense that i'm not sure is
05:22great
05:22check week one against louisville who probably got up and played out of their minds in the first half
05:31against lsu because lsu in the second half moved the football let's not forget lsu had the football
05:38inside the 10 yard line to go and you know have an opportunity to maybe force overtime against
05:44all miss so this is a spot dave where i think 58 and a half is just too light with
05:50the offensive talent
05:50that's going to be on the field
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