00:00Will the IMF provide relief on the fiscal deficit? Will the government open talks with the
00:05The IMF to find a way out of crises that were not inherited? That's what the president said.
00:10Abelardo de la Espriella during his address last Sunday. The head of state ordered him to
00:14The finance minister and the entire economic team will open talks with the IMF. This is happening almost
00:19a year after Colombia canceled the line of credit that distinguished him as a good student and
00:24five months after the previous government celebrated having settled its debts with the
00:28organization. Our country's public finances can't take any more. The balance is in the red. Therefore
00:37Previously, I gave clear instructions to the Minister of Finance and the entire economic team.
00:45so that they can take the lead in the talks with the IMF. I have given that instruction to seek
00:56a negotiated solution to the crisis inherited from the corrupt and responsible people who came before us.
01:06What is negotiated and under what terms will define how much it will cost the country to finance a budget
01:11of 635 trillion Colombian pesos, 29.9% of GDP, whether the adjustment will come through cuts or by
01:18taxes and how much that will ultimately impact health, public investment, and the price of credit.
01:23In fact, government envoys are already anticipating the consultation on Article 4, an evaluation
01:27regardless of the situation of the Colombian economy and the management plans
01:31in macroeconomic matters. They also review the outlook for growth, employment, and inflation.
01:36the financial system and the main risks to the economy.
01:39The progress comes after a visit to Colombia by Nigel Clark, deputy managing director of the IMF,
01:45who met with the Vice President of the Republic, José Manuel Rastrepo,
01:48Finance Minister Miguel Gómez Martínez and the ministry's technical team.
01:52During the meeting, macroeconomic prospects and initiatives to promote [the economy] were analyzed.
01:57growth and stabilizing public finances and the possibilities for cooperation
02:02with the organization. The consultation under Article 4 is a first step towards deepening the dialogue
02:06on new forms of collaboration with the fund, according to the Ministry of Finance.
02:10Why seek the IMF? It is estimated that the primary deficit, what the government spends
02:15The excess before paying interest would be 4.5% of GDP compared to the 0.5% that was predicted
02:21he
02:21CARF's medium-term fiscal framework for 2026 projects a total deficit close to 10% and a
02:27Net debt of 67.3%. Amid this situation, the approved budget for 2027 reaches 635
02:34trillions of pesos, but size is deceiving. According to the Javeriana Fiscal Observatory,
02:39Debt service grows by 48.2 trillion pesos compared to 2026, more than the entire increase
02:45The actual budget amount is 41.3 trillion pesos, while investment falls by 8.6 trillion pesos.
02:50pesos. Approximately 155 trillion pesos, one out of every four pesos, will go towards paying off debt and investment.
02:57It will drop to 13.7% of the budget, the lowest level in the series analyzed.
03:01What financing options does Colombia have with the IMF?
03:04In April 2025, the IMF suspended access to the Flexible Credit Line for
03:09The fiscal deterioration. It was still on paper, but it couldn't be used. In September of that year
03:13That year, the Bank of the Republic and the Ministry of Finance cancelled it because they had to pay
03:17a commission that had no justification. The irony is that the LSF was the door without
03:22Tolls. Camilo Pérez, Director of Investigations
03:24The Bank of Bogotá's economics department describes it as the most lenient option, without requirements or
03:29requirements after disbursement and the ideal for the current amount. What it cost was
03:33Expensive fees. Now there are several financing options.
03:37that the fund can offer. At one extreme, the LSF, without conditions or reputational cost
03:42reserved for the best students. In the other, the expanded service for structural crises
03:46with fundamental tax reforms and an unequivocal sign of a critical fiscal situation.
03:51In between is the line of caution and short-term liquidity, with targets that are
03:54They review it every six months, and the stand-by agreement delivers resources in stages in exchange for commitments.
03:59with deadlines. In a similar vein, a kind of purchase has also been proposed.
04:03Portfolio: swap expensive debt for cheaper fund debt. The government has not specified which instrument.
04:08He will look into it, and we'll have to see if the idea fits within the access limits that are measured.
04:12multiples of the fee.
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