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00:03But the fact is that the price that Ukraine has paid up to now and will pay in the future
00:11is much, much greater than the price that the Russians have paid.
00:18The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path.
00:23And the Israelis are executing a genocide in Gaza.
00:26It's not China's fault that it wants to be powerful.
00:30So if you get into trouble and you dial 9-1-1, there's nobody at the other end.
00:37Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
00:39And in today's episode, what I would like to talk about is an article that appeared in
00:47Britain that was written by Julia Mendel.
00:51And it's entitled, Zelensky's Strategy is National Suicide.
00:58And this article was published in The Spectator, which is a British magazine, on the 15th of
01:06September.
01:07That was a week ago today.
01:09And then the day after she actually gave a speech, it was done virtually to the European
01:16Parliament on the same basic themes that are contained in that article.
01:23Now, who exactly is Julia Mendel?
01:28She was President Zelensky's first press secretary between 2019 and 2021.
01:38And as I'm sure everyone knows, the war in Ukraine broke out in February of 2022.
01:44So she was not the press secretary when the war broke out.
01:47She was the press secretary for the two years before the war.
01:52Nevertheless, she remained very close to Zelensky.
01:56And she was a firm supporter of the war through 2024.
02:01But then in 2025, she began to be a real doubter.
02:07She began to think that this war made no sense.
02:10And she started to criticize the conflict.
02:14And this, of course, resulted in the article that she wrote last week in The Spectator and
02:20the talk that she gave to the European Parliament.
02:24And I want to lay out exactly what her specific argument is.
02:28She is not arguing that Ukraine is going to lose the war, although she believes that's true.
02:38She says that Ukraine has no, quote unquote, theory of victory.
02:41And it's clear from the piece that she expects Russia to win the war.
02:46Her argument goes well beyond that.
02:48She's arguing that Ukraine is actually committing national suicide.
02:53And she's arguing that Ukraine is going to end up in a situation where it is no longer a functioning
03:02state.
03:03It is completely dysfunctional as a result of this war.
03:09I don't think she's arguing quite wisely, I might add, that Ukraine is going to disappear from the map.
03:16I think she recognizes that there will be a dysfunctional rump state at the end.
03:21But that rump state will be dysfunctional in the extreme.
03:26And I think that's what she means by national suicide.
03:30I think that this is a remarkably controversial argument, not simply because she's arguing that Zelensky is responsible for pushing
03:43Ukraine down this road, but also because of her former position as his press secretary and as a staunch supporter
03:51of the war up until 2025.
03:54So she's not just any person off the street, she's a person of quite significant prominence, and she's making a
04:03remarkably controversial argument.
04:05I think the argument is not only controversial, but I think it's compelling as well.
04:11I think when you go through all the different points that she makes in the piece, it's quite clear that
04:19she's correct, that Ukraine is committing national suicide.
04:23And what I'd like to do is go through her argument, unpack the claims or the various points that she's
04:30making.
04:32And I think the best way to do that is to start with a simple framework, and that framework says
04:38that, in essence, there are five parts to her argument, five dimensions.
04:46One is that Ukraine is undergoing a demographic disaster, two, that Ukraine is undergoing an economic disaster, three, that Ukraine
05:01is undergoing a territorial disaster, four, that it's undergoing a political disaster, and finally, number five, it's undergoing a security
05:13disaster.
05:14So to be clear, again, there are five dimensions here that we want to talk about.
05:18One is the demographic disaster, two is the economic disaster, three is the territorial disaster, four is the political disaster,
05:27and five is the security disaster.
05:30Let me start with the demographic disaster, which in many ways is, I think, the most powerful part of her
05:38argument.
05:39She basically says that if you look at what's happened to Ukraine since it got its independence in 1991, which,
05:48of course, was not that long ago, its population has halved.
05:53Ukraine today has half the population that it had when it got its independence in 1991.
05:59She also makes the argument that half of the existing population inside of Ukraine is of retirement age.
06:1050% of the population is of retirement age.
06:16Furthermore, she makes the point, which I find stunning, that for every one birth in Ukraine these days, there are
06:26four deaths.
06:27Just think about that.
06:29Four people die for every one person who is born in Ukraine.
06:34And then she looks at the number of young men who are of conscription age in Russia and in Ukraine.
06:45And she makes the argument that there are four million men in Ukraine of conscription age.
06:52And she argues that Russia has ten times as many people of conscription age.
06:59And, of course, one of her central arguments in this piece, which is not controversial at all, is that this
07:06is a war of attrition.
07:07In a war of attrition, the size of your population matters greatly.
07:11And the number of men you have of conscription age obviously matters greatly.
07:16And she's arguing that Russia has ten times as many people who are of conscription age as Ukraine does.
07:26Now, I have checked up on her numbers as best I can.
07:31And I think she's essentially correct with regard to all those numbers.
07:36On population size, almost everybody agrees that Ukraine was comprised of about 52 million people when it got its independence.
07:46Her argument is that Ukraine now has between 20 and 25 million people.
07:53So, you see, if you use her upper end number, 25 million, 25 million is easily half of 52 million.
08:04And if you use the number 20 million, it's more than half.
08:09In other words, Ukraine's population has been cut by more than half.
08:14I think the 25 million number is a better number to use.
08:18I think if you look at what demographers in Ukraine are saying, they usually put the number in the high
08:28range.
08:30They usually put the number around 28, 29.
08:34And if you look at official government statistics, the principal minister for social policy puts the number at between 22
08:44and 25.
08:45So, again, her number is 20 to 25.
08:48And the minister for social policy puts the number at 22 to 25.
08:53I think 25 is a good number to use.
08:56And if you use the number 25, which is to say there are 25 million people in Ukraine today,
09:02then it's quite clear that that is half the population that existed in Ukraine in 1991 when it got its
09:12independence.
09:13With regard to the claim that half of the population is of retirement age, in other words, half of that
09:2225 million is of retirement age,
09:25I think the number is probably closer to 45%, but there's not that much difference between 45% and 50%.
09:33And on the point that she makes, which I think, again, is quite stunning,
09:37that there are four Ukrainians dying every day for every one Ukrainian who is born,
09:45I think that number is correct.
09:46I don't see any evidence that she's wrong there.
09:50And the same thing is true with her claim that there are four million Ukrainians of draft age and there
09:59are 10 times as many Russians of draft age.
10:03I would add the caveat, however, that the Russians don't draft people and send them into combat in the way
10:10that the Ukrainians do.
10:12But nevertheless, I think her point about the 10 times greater number of potential Russian conscripts is correct.
10:23Let me just add some facts to what she had to say.
10:29Recently, the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the Ukrainians are losing 27,000 soldiers every month,
10:44either to death or to wounds.
10:47In other words, the number of Ukrainian casualties on a monthly basis, he was told by the Ukrainians.
10:54This is what Prime Minister Tusk of Poland says.
10:58He was told by the Ukrainians, is that Ukraine is losing 27 million people per month.
11:06And again, that's casualties, not deaths.
11:09It's deaths plus wounded, and I would assume badly wounded.
11:15Well, this war has been going on for 54 months.
11:19And if you assume that there were 27,000 casualties every month,
11:29then that would mean that over the course of these 54 months, over the course of this war,
11:34the Ukrainians have suffered 1,458,000 casualties.
11:39Now, I think that number is inflated because I don't think that Ukraine has been losing 27,000 troops every
11:51month.
11:52In other words, there haven't been 27,000 casualties every month for this war.
11:56I think the number per month is lower.
11:58I can't tell you exactly what the number is,
12:01but let's just assume that the Ukrainians have suffered 20,000 casualties per month,
12:07not 27,000 casualties per month.
12:10Even if the Ukrainians are only suffering 20,000 casualties per month,
12:16that would still be a total of more than 1 million casualties.
12:22This is a remarkably high number.
12:23And you want to remember that in the month of July of this year,
12:28President Zelensky said that only 50,000 Ukrainians had died in this war
12:36and 400,000 had been wounded.
12:38So, according to President Zelensky,
12:42the number of casualties in this war on the Ukrainian side are 450,000.
12:48450,000 is a lot less than the 1.458 million figure,
12:58and even a lot less, more than half less, than the 1 million figure,
13:04if you assume that there have been only 20,000 casualties per month.
13:08So, you can see the effects of this war have been stunning
13:12from a demographic point of view on Ukraine.
13:16There's one more point that needs to be made regarding demography.
13:21Almost everybody who has looked at this problem
13:25believes that Ukraine is going to have an extremely difficult time
13:32recovering from this demographic disaster.
13:35In fact, some argue that it's almost impossible.
13:38First of all, you have a much smaller population now
13:41than you had before the war started.
13:45Number two, you have an old population.
13:49And number three, you have a remarkably low fertility rate inside of Ukraine.
13:55The average Ukrainian woman basically has 1.0 babies.
14:01And to have replacement rate,
14:04it's essential that each woman have 2.1 babies.
14:07That's just to maintain a steady population number.
14:11But again, Ukrainians are not even close to 2.1.
14:15The number is 1.0.
14:17So, most people think that this demographic disaster
14:23is not going to improve moving forward.
14:26And if anything, Ukraine is going to continue
14:30to lose significant numbers of people every year.
14:34And by the way, the Ukrainians are losing about 600,000 people a year now.
14:39And there's no good reason to think that that number is going to change
14:43in any significant way moving forward.
14:45The only caveat to this is that a good number of the people
14:50who have left Ukraine and moved to Europe may come back.
14:55And that would, in a very important way,
14:59help mitigate this problem or ameliorate this problem somewhat.
15:04But the fact is that Ukraine is suffering a demographic disaster.
15:08And there is little hope that this situation can be reversed in the future.
15:15Second, there's the economic disaster.
15:20First of all, the Russians are wrecking infrastructure inside of Ukraine.
15:31As Yulia Mendel points out, the energy system has been badly damaged.
15:37It's likely to be destroyed in large part before the winter.
15:42That's likely to have huge humanitarian consequences over the course of the winter.
15:50She also points out that 90% of the storage sites inside of Ukraine have been destroyed.
15:58And of course, the transportation network is being torn apart.
16:03The Russians are targeting gas stations all across Ukraine,
16:08but especially in the western part of Ukraine.
16:10The Russians have shut down the various Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.
16:17And in effect, Ukraine is now a landlocked country.
16:21So with all this wrecked infrastructure,
16:24you basically have a situation where Ukraine's economy is incapable of functioning
16:31in a way that other economies in Europe function.
16:37It's become a completely dysfunctional economy.
16:42And this leads to the second point that she makes,
16:45which is that Ukraine is now dependent on Western aid to stay afloat.
16:53Because Ukraine's economy by itself can't meet the demands of the war
17:00or the demands of the people and can't keep the government afloat.
17:05It depends to a great extent on aid from the West.
17:10And I would estimate up to now that the West has given Ukraine
17:15somewhere between $350 billion and $400 billion in aid.
17:21This is a remarkable number.
17:24Last year, it was decided that it would be necessary to keep Ukraine afloat,
17:32to give it about $105 billion,
17:35which could be used in both 2026, this year,
17:40and next year, 2027, to pay the bills.
17:45And that basically meant that you would need $52 billion this year for Ukraine
17:53and $52 billion next year for Ukraine.
17:57And that money, of course, was allocated.
18:00But what recently happened is that Ukraine discovered
18:05that it needs $27 billion more just to make it to the end of this year.
18:14So that $105 billion that was designed to cover 2026 and 2027 is not sufficient.
18:22You need another $27 billion.
18:24And very important, what happened is that the Europeans began to say
18:31that it is not clear that we can raise $27 billion.
18:39We've been stretched to the limit for the most part.
18:44And digging up another $27 billion on top of the $105 billion
18:48that we've already given you is probably not possible.
18:52But even if they do come up with the $27 billion,
18:56what you see is happening here is that the money from the West is drying up.
19:02And, of course, President Trump has made it clear
19:05that he has no interest over the long term
19:08of continuing to sustain the flow of aid to Ukraine
19:14that we have been giving up to now.
19:18He wants to cut back.
19:19He wants the Europeans to pick up more of the slack.
19:22He wants the burden of providing financial aid to Ukraine
19:27to fall on the shoulders of the Europeans.
19:30And he wants to get the Americans out of the business
19:33of supporting the Ukrainians financially.
19:37But the Europeans, of course, are not in a position to do that.
19:42The Europeans are not, in my opinion,
19:45going to be able to raise $27 billion,
19:47more than the $105 billion they've allocated for 2026 and 2027.
19:54So you see, when we talk about the economic dimension
19:59of this problem,
20:00that what's happened here is that the infrastructure
20:03in Ukraine has been, in large part, destroyed.
20:07Therefore, its economy has been destroyed.
20:09And therefore, it has to depend,
20:11to a great extent, on Western aid.
20:14And that Western aid is not enough,
20:18and it's beginning to dry up.
20:22Now, one other point on this.
20:26Yulia Mendel points out that if you look at the debt level
20:31in Ukraine, it's 110% of gross domestic product GDP.
20:39110% of gross domestic product is evidence
20:45that this economy is deeply indebted and in deep trouble.
20:50And, of course, the IMF has said explicitly
20:53that this situation is unsustainable,
20:56and something has to be done to restructure the debt.
21:01Good luck with that,
21:02given the fact that it is quite clear
21:05that the Europeans and the Americans
21:08are going to slow down
21:10in terms of giving aid to Ukraine moving forward.
21:14Now, the next point I want to talk about
21:17is the territorial disaster
21:20that has taken place in Ukraine.
21:23You want to remember,
21:24what I've said so far
21:25is that there has been a demographic disaster,
21:27and there has been an economic disaster.
21:30Now, I want to talk about the territorial disaster.
21:33And you want to keep in mind
21:34as I talk about the territorial disaster
21:37that it is linked to the economic disaster
21:40that I'm just finishing up with now.
21:43Regarding the territorial disaster,
21:47Ukraine has already lost 20% of its territory.
21:52The Russians have annexed four oblasts,
21:56and they have annexed Crimea.
21:58They've not conquered all the territory
22:01in three of those oblasts.
22:03But, nevertheless, they've annexed four oblasts and Crimea,
22:08and they control about 20% of Ukraine's territory.
22:12That means that Ukraine has lost a fifth of its territory,
22:17and it has no hope of reconquering that territory,
22:22despite what one hears in the mainstream media.
22:25That 20% is gone.
22:27Now, very importantly,
22:29you want to understand that before the war,
22:3225% of Ukraine's GDP was found in that territory.
22:4030% of its industrial production
22:43was found in that territory.
22:45Here we're talking about the 20% that Ukraine has lost.
22:51And, furthermore, 25% of its population
22:53was located in that territory.
22:56This, of course, is one of the principal reasons
22:59that Ukraine's population has shrunk so much,
23:02because that part of the population
23:05that was located in that eastern one-fifth
23:08of Ukrainian territory
23:09that the Russians have now conquered
23:11no longer counts as part of the population of Ukraine.
23:17So, again, you see
23:19that not only has Ukraine lost a fifth of its territory,
23:23it's lost territory
23:25that contained industrial might,
23:28that contained GDP,
23:29and contained population.
23:31Then, to take this a step further,
23:34it's not clear that Ukraine
23:36will not lose more territory.
23:39The Russians make it clear from time to time
23:43that they are incentivized to take more territory.
23:47And what is particularly worrisome
23:49from a Ukrainian point of view
23:53at this point in time
23:54is that the Russians might take Odessa.
23:57And if they take the Odessa Oblast,
24:01that will, in effect,
24:03permanently cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea.
24:07And that will have devastating consequences
24:10for the Ukrainian economy moving forward,
24:14because so much of Ukrainian agricultural
24:18and industrial production
24:20goes out through the Black Sea,
24:23and huge numbers of imports
24:25come in through the Black Sea.
24:28So, if the Russians control Odessa,
24:31or they take over Odessa,
24:32and they annex Odessa,
24:35this means that Ukraine will be permanently
24:38a landlocked country,
24:39which will have devastating economic consequences.
24:43To go back to the 20% number,
24:45as I've said,
24:46and almost everybody agrees on this,
24:48Ukraine has lost about 20% of its population,
24:51excuse me, 20% of its territory,
24:55I would estimate that there's a reasonable chance
24:58that it will end up losing 40%
25:01or 35% of its territory.
25:05It remains to be seen,
25:07but given the direction that the war is taking,
25:11it is clearly possible
25:13that Ukraine will end up losing much more
25:17than just 20% of its territory,
25:19which will have a significant effect
25:21on its GDP moving forward,
25:23on its population size moving forward,
25:26and on its industrial production moving forward.
25:31Now, let's talk about the political dimension
25:36of this conflict
25:38and elaborate on why this is a political disaster.
25:43First of all, it's very clear,
25:45as Yulia Mendel emphasizes,
25:48that this war
25:50and the continuation of this war
25:53year after year
25:54has undermined democracy.
25:58There's great emphasis placed on censorship
26:01and curtailing free speech
26:03inside of Ukraine.
26:08The election that was scheduled a year ago
26:13was deferred,
26:14and there's no evidence
26:15there's going to be an election anytime soon.
26:20And political rights, more generally,
26:22have been curtailed.
26:24This is hardly surprising.
26:26Anytime a country fights a total war,
26:29and this was true of all of the countries
26:32in World War I and World War II,
26:34the government goes to great lengths
26:37to curtail democracy.
26:39You find yourself engaged
26:41in what is sometimes called a total war.
26:44And when you're engaged in a total war,
26:48democracy is almost invariably undermined.
26:53And for sure,
26:54the Ukrainians are involved in a total war.
26:57This is an existential war for them.
26:59They're fighting for their life,
27:01and they're doing everything they can
27:03to mobilize the country
27:05to win this war.
27:08And when that happens,
27:09whether it's Ukraine
27:10or Germany or Britain in World War I,
27:13or even the United States,
27:15democracy is undermined
27:17in very important ways,
27:18which is why you want to minimize
27:20the number of times you fight wars.
27:21And if you do fight wars,
27:23to spend as little time as possible
27:25fighting those wars.
27:26Because creating a national security state
27:30and fighting wars all the time,
27:32and especially fighting existential wars,
27:34is guaranteed to undermine democracy.
27:37And unsurprisingly, Ukraine,
27:41which was a flawed democracy
27:42going into the war in 2022,
27:45has seen its democratic institutions
27:48eroded in serious ways.
27:52And this, of course,
27:53will be very difficult
27:54to recover from.
27:56One other very important issue here,
28:00when we talk about
28:00what a political disaster this war is,
28:03has to do with corruption.
28:04As almost everybody knows
28:06from just reading the newspaper every day,
28:09there is a huge amount of corruption
28:11inside of Ukraine.
28:14And all of this Western aid,
28:16remember I was talking about
28:17somewhere between $350 to $400 billion
28:21in aid coming into Ukraine.
28:23All of this aid
28:25just lends itself to corruption
28:28at the elite level.
28:29And of course,
28:30the Ukrainians have not disappointed us
28:32on this front.
28:33There is significant corruption.
28:36So you see,
28:38this war has been a political disaster
28:42because of what it means
28:45for democratic institutions
28:46and because of what it means
28:48for jacking up the levels of corruption,
28:52which, of course,
28:53were high before the war even started.
28:56I mean, Ukraine was known
28:57as a highly corrupt state
29:00before February 2022.
29:03And that situation
29:04has just gotten worse
29:05at the elite level
29:06for sure since the war started.
29:10Excuse me.
29:11Now let me talk about
29:12the security dimension
29:14and explain to you
29:15why this has been
29:16a security disaster.
29:18And I want to make
29:19two major points here.
29:21The first is
29:23that Ukraine,
29:24for purposes of security,
29:27wants very much
29:28to become a member of NATO.
29:31And if it can't become
29:33a member of NATO,
29:34it wants a security guarantee
29:36from the United States.
29:39It's quite clear,
29:40and Yulia Mendel
29:41says this explicitly,
29:44that the question
29:44of Ukraine joining NATO
29:46is off the table.
29:48Ukraine is not
29:49going to join
29:51NATO.
29:52And it's not going
29:54to get a security guarantee
29:55from the United States
29:57or a security guarantee
29:58of any consequence
29:59from any European country.
30:02So Ukraine
30:03is going to be
30:04on its own.
30:05This war,
30:06which was fought
30:07in large part
30:08so that Ukraine
30:10could become part
30:11of NATO,
30:11is a failure.
30:13Ukraine is not
30:14going to become
30:15a part of NATO.
30:16It's not going to get
30:17a meaningful security guarantee.
30:19And that is to say
30:20it's going to be
30:21on its own.
30:23It's going to have
30:24to provide
30:24for its own security.
30:27My second major point
30:29here,
30:30under the security dimension,
30:32is that Ukraine
30:34is going to end
30:36this war
30:37much weaker
30:39than when it started
30:40the war.
30:41Now,
30:42the key point
30:42you want to keep in mind
30:44is the two
30:47building blocks
30:49of military power,
30:50the two building blocks
30:52of military power
30:53are population size,
30:55number one,
30:56and wealth,
30:57number two.
30:59To generate
31:00military power,
31:01and of course,
31:02Ukraine needs
31:04military power
31:05to protect itself.
31:06Remember,
31:06there's going to be
31:07no membership
31:08in NATO.
31:10There's going to be
31:10no security guarantee
31:12from the United States
31:14or any other country.
31:15Ukraine is on its own.
31:17So it's going to need
31:18a powerful military,
31:19or as powerful
31:21a military
31:21as it can build
31:23to provide
31:23for its own security.
31:25But what I'm telling you
31:26is that it's not
31:28going to be able
31:28to build
31:29a powerful military
31:30because the two
31:31building blocks
31:32of military power
31:33are population size
31:34and wealth.
31:35And we talked
31:37about population size.
31:38We talked about
31:39the demographic disaster
31:40that Ukraine
31:42is facing.
31:43And with regard
31:44to wealth,
31:46we talked about
31:47the economic disaster
31:49that Ukraine
31:50is facing.
31:52So you see
31:54that from a security
31:55perspective,
31:56Ukraine is
31:58in absolutely
31:59horrible,
32:01horrible condition.
32:03It's in an absolutely
32:04horrible condition.
32:05So let me just
32:07put all the pieces
32:08together and review
32:09what I've said
32:09to you here.
32:10From a demographic
32:11point of view,
32:12this is a country
32:13that's half the size
32:14it was
32:15when it got its
32:16independence
32:16in 1991.
32:19And if you look
32:21at what's happening
32:22in terms of the
32:23birth rate
32:24and the death rate,
32:25this is a country
32:26that is continuing
32:28to shrink in size.
32:30This is a demographic
32:31disaster
32:32that Ukraine
32:33is facing.
32:34Furthermore,
32:35it is facing
32:36an economic disaster.
32:38Its infrastructure,
32:39its economy
32:40has been destroyed.
32:41It's heavily dependent
32:42on support
32:44from the West
32:46and that support
32:48is drying up.
32:49Furthermore,
32:50from a territorial
32:51point of view,
32:52it's lost 20%
32:53of its population.
32:54That population
32:55contained all sorts
32:56of wealth,
32:57all sorts of people,
32:58all sorts of
32:59industrial production.
33:00It's gone.
33:01And it's not clear
33:02that 20% will be
33:03all the territory
33:04that it loses.
33:05It may lose
33:06somewhere in the order
33:07of 35-40%
33:08of its territory.
33:10The war has been
33:11a political disaster.
33:12It's undermined
33:13the democratic institutions
33:15inside of Ukraine,
33:16which were never
33:17too strong
33:17to begin with.
33:19And furthermore,
33:19it's fueled corruption
33:21at the elite level.
33:22And then finally,
33:23as we just talked about,
33:24at the security level,
33:26this has been
33:26a disaster there
33:28as well.
33:29Ukraine's not
33:30going to join NATO.
33:31It's not going to get
33:31a security guarantee.
33:33And militarily,
33:35militarily,
33:36it's going to be
33:36weaker moving forward.
33:38Its ability
33:38to generate
33:39military power
33:40today is
33:42much less
33:43than it was
33:44in 1991
33:46for sure
33:47and in 2022,
33:49right before
33:50this war started
33:51as well.
33:52So this war
33:53has been
33:54an unmitigated
33:55disaster
33:56for Ukraine.
33:58And this,
33:58of course,
33:59is why
33:59Yulia Mendel
34:00is arguing
34:01that Zelenskyy's
34:02continuation
34:03of this war
34:06is leading
34:07to national suicide.
34:08I think the evidence,
34:10when you look at it
34:11carefully,
34:11is overwhelming
34:12that she is correct.
34:15Now,
34:15I want to conclude
34:16with two final points.
34:18First,
34:19I want to compare
34:20this to the situation
34:21in Russia.
34:23As you know,
34:24I was in Russia
34:25between September 5th
34:27and September 12th,
34:28and I spent
34:30a lot of time
34:31talking to people
34:33and looking around
34:34and assessing
34:35what the situation
34:36is in Russia.
34:37And when I read
34:39Mendel's piece,
34:40I couldn't help
34:41but think about
34:42the contrast
34:43with Russia.
34:44The situation
34:46in Russia
34:46is the polar opposite
34:48of the situation
34:49in Ukraine.
34:52I don't want
34:53to argue
34:54that Russia
34:54hasn't suffered
34:55from the war
34:57because it certainly
34:58has.
35:00But if you think
35:02about it carefully,
35:03the situation
35:04is just fundamentally
35:06different in Russia
35:07than it is
35:08in Ukraine today.
35:09Now,
35:10Russia clearly
35:11has a demographic
35:12problem,
35:13independent of the war,
35:15similar to the demographic
35:17problem
35:17that Ukraine had
35:18even before
35:19the war started.
35:20Both of these countries
35:21had a demographic
35:22problem
35:23before the war,
35:25for sure.
35:25But what's
35:27happened
35:28with the Russians
35:28is they have
35:30conquered
35:30a huge swath
35:32of territory
35:32in Ukraine
35:34and those
35:35people
35:36in that swath
35:37of territory
35:38who were
35:39previously Ukrainians
35:41have now
35:42become Russians.
35:43So as a result
35:44of this war,
35:45the Russian population
35:46has increased
35:48significantly
35:49in size.
35:51Furthermore,
35:52in terms of
35:52territory,
35:54Ukraine
35:55has lost
35:5520%
35:56of its territory.
35:57Well,
35:58who has
35:58captured
35:59that territory?
36:00The Russians
36:01have captured
36:02that territory.
36:03So the Russians
36:04have gained
36:04territory
36:05and gained
36:06population
36:07as a result
36:08of this war.
36:10And in terms
36:11of their security,
36:12remember,
36:12I argued
36:13that this war
36:13is a security
36:14disaster
36:15for Ukraine.
36:16It has not
36:17been a security
36:18disaster
36:18for Russia.
36:19Even if Russia
36:21wins
36:21an ugly
36:22victory
36:22and Russia
36:23pays a price
36:24for fighting
36:25this war.
36:26The fact
36:27is that
36:28militarily,
36:29Russia is
36:31in much
36:31better shape
36:32today
36:33than it was
36:34when the war
36:35started in
36:35February 2022.
36:37The Russian
36:38army
36:39is a much
36:40more
36:41formidable
36:42instrument
36:43today
36:43than it was
36:45in 2022.
36:46And furthermore,
36:47Ukraine is
36:48much weaker
36:49today
36:50than it
36:50was in
36:512022.
36:51If we
36:52were to
36:53review
36:53what has
36:53happened
36:54in each
36:55year
36:56of this
36:57war,
36:57what you
36:58would see
36:58is that
36:59the Ukrainians
37:00did very
37:01well against
37:01the Russians
37:02in 2022.
37:042022
37:04was the
37:05high-water
37:06mark
37:06for the
37:07Ukrainians.
37:08And then
37:08in 2023,
37:09they launched
37:10a major
37:11offensive
37:11in June
37:12of that
37:13year.
37:13And the
37:14reason they
37:14launched
37:15that major
37:16offensive
37:16is they
37:17thought that
37:17they could
37:18effectively
37:18knock the
37:19Russians out
37:20of the
37:20war or
37:21at least
37:21do serious
37:22damage to
37:23the Russian
37:24military and
37:25Russia's
37:26strategic
37:26position in
37:28eastern
37:28Ukraine.
37:29So in
37:302023,
37:31the Ukrainians
37:32felt they
37:33were on a
37:34roll.
37:34They had
37:35control of
37:36the commanding
37:37heights.
37:37But if you
37:38look at what
37:39happened that
37:39year, towards
37:40the end of
37:41that year,
37:422023, what
37:43happened in
37:432024, what
37:44happened in
37:452025, and
37:46where we are
37:47in 2026, you
37:49see that
37:50Ukraine's
37:51security
37:51situation has
37:52significantly
37:54deteriorated, and
37:55Russia's security
37:56situation has
37:58improved markedly.
38:00All of this is a
38:02way of saying
38:02that Russia is
38:04in much better
38:05shape today than
38:06it was in
38:072022.
38:08And again, I
38:09don't want to
38:09make light of
38:10the fact that
38:11the Russians
38:11have suffered as
38:13a result of
38:13this war, that
38:14many Russians
38:15have died or
38:17been badly
38:17wounded, just
38:18as many
38:19Ukrainians have
38:20died or have
38:21been badly
38:22wounded.
38:22But the fact
38:23is that the
38:24price that
38:24Ukraine has
38:26paid up to
38:27now and will
38:28pay in the
38:29future is
38:32much, much
38:33greater than
38:35the price that
38:36the Russians
38:36have paid and
38:37will pay
38:38moving forward.
38:40My final
38:41point, and this
38:43is a point that
38:43Mendel makes
38:44very clearly
38:45is it's not
38:47just Zelensky
38:48who is
38:49responsible for
38:50leading Ukraine
38:52toward national
38:53suicide.
38:53It's the West
38:55as well.
38:56And as I'm
38:57sure almost all
38:58viewers know,
38:59the West has
39:00often talked
39:01about using
39:02Ukraine as a
39:04battering ram
39:05to weaken
39:07Russia.
39:09And of course,
39:11as Mendel makes
39:12clear, it is
39:14the Ukrainians,
39:15not the
39:16Europeans, nor
39:18the Americans,
39:20who are paying
39:20the price for
39:22fighting this
39:23war against
39:25the Russians.
39:27And she's
39:28actually very
39:29angry.
39:30And you can
39:30see this both
39:32in her article
39:33that she wrote
39:34in the Weekly
39:35Standard and
39:36also in her
39:38speech before
39:39the European
39:40Parliament.
39:40That was the
39:41day after her
39:42article appeared
39:43that she spoke
39:44to the European
39:45Parliament.
39:46She talks about
39:48people in the
39:49comfortable West.
39:51That's her rhetoric.
39:52People in the
39:52comfortable West.
39:54She makes it
39:55clear that she
39:57thinks that people
39:58in the West who
39:58are not paying the
39:59price of having to
40:00fight against the
40:01Russians are very
40:03comfortable making
40:04the argument that
40:05Ukraine should pay
40:06the blood price
40:07here.
40:07And this makes
40:09her very angry.
40:10And she has this
40:11one line that
40:12sticks in my head
40:13which says that
40:15Western political
40:16elites would
40:18rather see Russia
40:19burn than
40:21Ukraine saved.
40:22Think about that.
40:23Western political
40:24elites would
40:25rather see Russia
40:27burn than
40:29Ukraine saved.
40:31And her point is
40:32that Ukraine is
40:33not going to be
40:34saved.
40:34It is committing
40:36national suicide.
40:37And as I say,
40:39this is a
40:40controversial
40:40argument for sure.
40:42But I think if
40:43you look carefully
40:44at those five
40:45dimensions that
40:46I've outlined,
40:47what you see is
40:49that Ukraine is
40:50facing a disaster
40:51on every one of
40:53them.
40:53And this war in
40:55the end is a
40:56complete catastrophe
40:58for Ukraine.
41:00Ukraine.
41:00On that sad
41:01note, let me
41:03conclude this
41:04episode and
41:06wish everybody
41:07good speed.
41:10Bye.