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Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is trapped. Forced to flee its historic base in Sevastopol for the merchant port of Novorossiysk, Moscow’s remaining warships now face a dual crisis: constant Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, and a total lack of repair infrastructure to fix damaged vessels. With Turkey blocking the straits and Kalibr cruise missile salvo potential down fourfold, discover how Ukraine’s uncrewed systems and long-range weapons neutralized the Black Sea Fleet without a conventional navy.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - The Novorossiysk Trap: Russia's Twofold Naval Crisis
02:43 - Targeting Novorossiysk: Escalating Strikes on Admiral Essen & Makarov
04:09 - Infrastructure Deficit: Lack of Repair Docks & The Drydocking Risk Trap
06:54 - Strategic Lockout: Montreux Convention & The Straits Closure
08:22 - Degraded Salvo Capacity: Kalibr Launch Potential Cut Fourfold
12:28 - Submarine Attrition & Long-Term Docking Degradation
15:54 - Mutual Sea Denial to Ukrainian Leverage: The Safe Navigation Offer
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/r4SYKMr0
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is trapped. Forced to flee its historic base in Sevastopol for the merchant port of Novorossiysk, Moscow’s remaining warships now face a dual crisis: constant Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, and a total lack of repair infrastructure to fix damaged vessels. With Turkey blocking the straits and Kalibr cruise missile salvo potential down fourfold, discover how Ukraine’s uncrewed systems and long-range weapons neutralized the Black Sea Fleet without a conventional navy.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - The Novorossiysk Trap: Russia's Twofold Naval Crisis
02:43 - Targeting Novorossiysk: Escalating Strikes on Admiral Essen & Makarov
04:09 - Infrastructure Deficit: Lack of Repair Docks & The Drydocking Risk Trap
06:54 - Strategic Lockout: Montreux Convention & The Straits Closure
08:22 - Degraded Salvo Capacity: Kalibr Launch Potential Cut Fourfold
12:28 - Submarine Attrition & Long-Term Docking Degradation
15:54 - Mutual Sea Denial to Ukrainian Leverage: The Safe Navigation Offer
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/r4SYKMr0
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NewsTranscript
00:01Putin, Putin, Putin. What are we to do with you?
00:05It was all supposed to be so different in the Black Sea.
00:08Russia has a navy and Ukraine doesn't.
00:10The dreaded Black Sea fleet was supposed to dominate as it fired missiles
00:15and provided passage into Ukraine for scores of troops.
00:18But now the Black Sea is a no-go zone for Russia.
00:22Worse, the remaining ships in that fleet have sailed from their main base into Novorossiysk.
00:27In doing so, they've sailed right into Ukraine's trap.
00:31Putin meet rock and hard place.
00:34Your fleet is stuck between them and there's nothing you can do about it.
00:38What Russia has on its hands right now is a two-fold struggle,
00:42Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmitry Pletenchuk revealed in a September 22 interview.
00:47Since the Black Sea fleet was forced to flee its traditional base in Crimea's Sevastopol
00:52and move to the Russian port of Novorossiysk, it has faced two issues.
00:56One, the fleet is now a stationary target.
01:00And two, Russia's warships can't be repaired.
01:03Before we dive deeper, if you're enjoying the video,
01:06consider subscribing and let us know your thoughts below.
01:09You can also become a channel member for access to exclusive content that we don't publish publicly.
01:14Each problem feeds into the other,
01:16so we'll start with Russia's issue of being forced to keep its warships at Novorossiysk.
01:20Back in March 2024, Russia had a major problem on its hands.
01:25A country with no warships of its own, at least not since Russia stole them,
01:29was obliterating the Black Sea fleet.
01:31A combination of missiles, aerial drones and innovative unmanned naval vessels
01:37was hitting Russia's ships as they tried to sail in the Black Sea.
01:40By March 2024, Ukraine's range had extended so that Crimea was in easy range.
01:46About a third of the Black Sea fleet was destroyed or crippled.
01:50So, Russia's warships escaped to Novorossiysk.
01:53There, they were supposed to be out of range.
01:56Sure, they would be sitting in still waters, barely moving for fear of going into range of Ukraine's weapons.
02:01But at least in Novorossiysk, they would be safe.
02:04This port, which is nestled within a mountainous inlet on Russia's Black Sea coast,
02:09had distance on its side back in 2024.
02:12It was up to 650 kilometers away from the territory Ukraine still held in its own country.
02:18It's not that Ukraine didn't have drones that could fly that far when the Russian escape happened.
02:22But it wasn't yet building those drones at such a scale that it would conduct strikes against Novorossiysk,
02:27especially when those drones could be used elsewhere while Russia's ships were contained to a faraway port.
02:34Oh, how times have changed.
02:36It's 2026, and long-range drones have become a key part of Ukraine's strategy.
02:42Russia is being battered almost daily,
02:44and production at scale isn't something Ukraine has to worry about anymore.
02:48Novorossiysk has been transformed from a safe haven into a sitting duck.
02:52Russia's warships are suffering as a result.
02:54This year has been a revelation for Ukraine and a ruination for Russia.
02:59It all started in March when Ukraine launched its first combined strike against Novorossiysk.
03:05Up to 200 drones traveled to the port alongside missiles, causing fires that lasted 18 hours
03:11and scoring a direct hit on a Russian missile cruiser named the Admiral Essen.
03:16Attacks have been coming thick and fast since then.
03:19April saw the first separate counter-drone center hit the Sheskaris oil terminal at Russia's once-out-of-range port.
03:26Fires were started, the Admiral Essen took another hit,
03:29and Ukraine added the Admiral Makarov to its list of Novorossiysk victims.
03:34May brought with it a two-day raid, once again targeting the Admiral Essen, this time from the side rather
03:39than above.
03:40In August, Ukraine conducted a massive joint operation that saw it hit four Russian warships in Novorossiysk.
03:46And on September 9th, Ukraine hit the port again, scoring hits against at least three Black Sea Fleet vessels,
03:53along with more strikes on missile cruisers.
03:55These are supposed to be Russia's scariest and most powerful warships.
04:00But all they can do in Novorossiysk is float in port and hope that today isn't the day that more
04:06of Ukraine's drones come.
04:07That is a trap in and of itself, but the real rock-and-hard-place situation comes from the second
04:13problem we mentioned.
04:14It's practically impossible for Russia to carry out repairs on the ships that Ukraine is hitting while those ships are
04:21in Novorossiysk.
04:22Russia's major Novorossiysk problem is that the port was never intended to host warships.
04:27It's a merchant port and that means it doesn't have the repair infrastructure needed to maintain missile cruisers,
04:33submarines or any other large Black Sea Fleet ships.
04:37The fleet's primary repair infrastructure is still in Crimea and that has become a no-go zone for the fleet.
04:43Russia had been trying to develop Novorossiysk as an alternate base to account for just such a problem.
04:48Work was underway as far back as 2013, which is the year before Putin launched his campaign of aggression against
04:54Ukraine.
04:55But it wasn't enough.
04:56The infrastructure isn't there. The port isn't large enough.
04:59And that means that every Ukrainian strike that is carried out causes damage that Russia can't fix quickly.
05:04The knock-on effect is that warships such as the Admiral Essen that might have been useful as cruise missile
05:10launching pads
05:11are rendered useless for longer periods of time than Russia ever anticipated.
05:16Russia's repair problem goes even deeper than that.
05:18It's not as though Novorossiysk has no capacity for carrying out repairs.
05:23The port is home to the Novorossiysk shipyard, which has a dry docking capacity of 60,000 deadweight tons,
05:30which is enough to house most of the warships in the Black Sea Fleet.
05:33But think about what dry docking means.
05:36A ship that needs to go in for repairs enters the dry dock and then just sits there,
05:41completely immobilized while repairs are underway.
05:43And that ship is even more of a sitting duck than it was before.
05:47As Pletinchuk puts it,
05:48therefore there can currently be no talk of prolonged repairs or maintenance.
05:53In other words, if Ukraine can do enough damage to a ship with its Novorossiysk strikes,
05:57that ship gets taken out of commission permanently, even if it's repairable.
06:01One problem feeds into the other.
06:04Russia's warships are already vulnerable in Novorossiysk because they have no escape from the port.
06:10Any attempt to sail into the Sea of Azov or the Black Sea doesn't take them out of the range
06:14of Ukraine's weapons.
06:15So those ships get hit.
06:18Then they either languish where they are or Russia takes the risk of dry docking them for repairs.
06:24But in a dry dock, the ships are stationary and can be hit again.
06:27This necessitates more repairs and on and on it goes.
06:30We said it earlier, rock meets hard place.
06:34Novorossiysk has essentially become a death trap for Russian warships that have no other options.
06:40It's not like those warships can just escape the Black Sea outright either.
06:43Russia needs its missile cruisers to launch attacks against Ukraine,
06:48and we'll be digging into some more problems Russia has there in a moment.
06:51But even if Putin decided that the attacks could be stopped to save the ships, the fleet couldn't leave.
06:57Turkey controls both the Dardanelles and Bosporus Straits, which are used by ships to enter the Black Sea.
07:03Those straits have been closed to warships since the beginning of Putin's invasion.
07:07Merchant ships can still pass through the straits, but warships aren't allowed no matter what flag they may sail under.
07:13It's a trap upon a trap.
07:15Putin arrogantly thought that Russia could defeat Ukraine so quickly that Turkey's decision to block the straits it controls would
07:21have no impact.
07:22But Ukraine devastated the Black Sea fleet.
07:25Now that fleet is stuck in a port that is within range of Ukraine's weapons.
07:29The ships can't leave and Russia can't even send new warships to replenish its ailing fleet.
07:35So we can see what Ukraine's dangerous trap looks like, but what about its results?
07:40Russian ships are being hit and have nowhere to go.
07:42But what does that mean for Russia's posture in the Black Sea and its ability to hurt Ukraine with its
07:47warships?
07:48We'll be answering those questions in a moment.
07:50First, you're watching the military show.
07:53If you're getting value from our channel, don't forget to subscribe and enable notifications so you can catch our videos
07:59as soon as they're published.
08:02Ukraine's genius move has been pulled off in stages, starting with making the Black Sea itself dangerous, then Sevastopol, and
08:10now Novorossiysk.
08:10It's almost as though Ukraine has been slowly guiding Russia into the perfect position through which the Black Sea fleet
08:16can be rendered useless,
08:18and nowhere is that more evident than with the state of Russia's missile cruisers.
08:22Russia doesn't have many left.
08:24At least it doesn't have many cruisers that are actually capable of firing missiles.
08:28That's according to a September 23rd report by Defense Express, which says that Russia is down to just two surface
08:35ships that are capable of carrying cruise missiles in the Black Sea.
08:39Losing the Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov has been a major blow to Russia, as both could fire cruise missiles
08:45at Ukraine.
08:46This doesn't mean that Russia can't launch cruise missiles at all, of course.
08:50Beyond the two remaining warships that can fire those missiles, Crimea itself is a launch pad.
08:55Still, we're seeing Russia's missile capacity being whittled away.
08:59The New Voice of Ukraine published a similar report on September 11th, claiming that Ukraine's September 9th strike has left
09:06Russia with three of four cruise missile carriers.
09:09So the numbers are slightly different, but the ultimate outcome of Russia's missile capabilities degrading is the same.
09:15The outlet highlights Caliber cruise missiles as the key in all of this.
09:18Since 2022, when the Black Sea fleet was at its best, Russia's total launch potential of Caliber cruise missiles from
09:24its warships has declined fourfold.
09:27At best, this leaves Russia capable of firing 24 Caliber missiles in a single salvo.
09:32At worst, assuming Defense Express is correct, it leaves Russia able to fire fewer than 16 in a single attack
09:39from the sea.
09:39What Russia has left is up to two, though possibly just one, Boyan M-class small missile ship.
09:45Beyond that, it has submarines, specifically a Paltus-class sub named Alrosa and a pair of Varshavyanka-class diesel submarines
09:54named the Starry Oskol and Veliki Novgorod.
09:57Keep submarines in mind, by the way. We'll be coming back to them in a few moments.
10:00This degradation of Russia's Caliber cruise missile capacity is important because this particular missile has been a mainstay of Russia's
10:08strategy ever since Putin launched his invasion.
10:11Not only that, but the national interest suggests that the Caliber is the closest that Russia has to America's Tomahawk
10:17cruise missile.
10:18There are more than a dozen variants of Caliber missiles, which offer different speeds and ranges.
10:22However, all are capable of packing a 408kg warhead, and most appear to be nuclear capable.
10:29So they're clearly a threat. The land attack variants of the missiles, such as the 3M14T and 3M14K, have ranges
10:37up to about 2,400km,
10:39which also means that Russia can strike almost anywhere in Ukraine using these missiles.
10:44They're fast, too, with the best of the Caliber range being capable of hitting Mach 3.
10:49In short, these missiles are lethal.
10:51Russia has a lot of them, and they are set to become even more important as Russia prepares to ramp
10:57up its missile strategy as winter approaches.
11:00Modifications have also been happening, which show us that Russia is willing to further tweak its missile designs to maximize
11:06the damage it does to Ukraine.
11:08Back in June, Defence Matters reported that some of the Caliber cruise missiles being used in Ukraine are now fitted
11:14with cluster warheads.
11:16This increases each missile's area of effect, making it more useful for dealing with dispersed targets, such as those at
11:23airfields or open military positions.
11:25Russia's long-range strategy has also become very missile-dependent, especially as Ukraine has started to run out of the
11:32sorts of defenses it needs to shoot those missiles out of the sky.
11:35We've seen escalation throughout 2026.
11:38For example, the UK's Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office reports that July saw Russia launch 460 missiles at Ukraine.
11:45Over half of those missiles were likely cruise missiles, though it isn't clear how many were Caliber missiles versus other
11:51types.
11:51For Ukraine, Russia's Novorossiysk trap has become more vital than ever because it needs to focus on taking out the
11:58archers rather than the arrows due to its lack of interceptor missiles.
12:02So when Russia can't repair a ship that Ukraine hits, that's a massive result.
12:07Ukraine will likely never be able to stop Russia from using missiles entirely.
12:11The Kremlin has far too many options.
12:13But as more ships and submarines go down, never to emerge again due to the Novorossiysk trap, Ukraine can at
12:20least start to reduce the volume of missiles that Russia launches.
12:24We mentioned submarines again there, and we asked you to keep them in mind a moment ago.
12:28This is why.
12:29The Novorossiysk trap has made it almost impossible for Russia to maintain its Black Sea submarines.
12:36Pletinchuk says that the technical condition of Russia's submarines in the Black Sea is degraded to the point where Ukraine
12:43is seeing very low activity from them.
12:45Nearly five years without proper docking can affect their operating regime.
12:49Before that, they used their combat units, including submarines, under fairly harsh conditions.
12:54But this cannot continue indefinitely, he points out.
12:57These technical issues are forcing Russia into making tough decisions.
13:01As Pletinchuk adds, they face a choice – risk their money and file empty reports, or go to sea and
13:07launch missiles from the relevant launchers.
13:09They choose the first option because they consider it less dangerous, although there is always a risk, the Ukrainian Navy
13:15spokesman explains.
13:17The long and short of it is that prolonged use of submarines without docking leads to degradation.
13:22And this is something that Ukraine hinted at even earlier in 2026.
13:27Back in February, Pletinchuk was already discussing Russia's decreasing use of submarines, noting that the increasing complexity of keeping them
13:35working in the Black Sea was causing issues for Russia.
13:39Again, he brought up the maintenance issue, stating,
13:42A submarine is a complex mechanism that requires proper operating and maintenance conditions, and any maintenance now is a risk.
13:49Russia is less and less willing to take that risk, and it should be.
13:54Ukraine has been hitting submarines throughout the war.
13:57In August 2024, Ukraine claimed to have sunk a Kilo-class submarine at Sevastopol, causing catastrophic damage to the vessel
14:04while it was undergoing maintenance work.
14:06A chilling reminder to Russia that any vessel that comes to a standstill for repairs turns into a target.
14:12December 2025 saw Ukraine pull off an even more impressive attack, as it used its sub-Seababy unmanned submersible vessels
14:20to carry out another attack on a Kilo-class submarine.
14:24That sub was hit in Novorossiysk, and it also sustained damage severe enough to put it out of action, at
14:30least for the rest of the war.
14:32And according to the New Voice of Ukraine, the Paltus-class sub that is among the three that Russia has
14:37left in the Black Sea is already in poor technical condition.
14:41That may well mean that it isn't participating in missile strikes against Ukraine, even though it hasn't been struck.
14:47What we're seeing here is the Black Sea Fleet falling apart.
14:51The ships and subs that Ukraine is striking aren't being repaired because Novorossiysk either doesn't have the facilities or attempts
14:58to repair carry too much risk.
15:00But even vessels that haven't been hit are becoming less useful to Russia.
15:05As each month passes, they degrade while they're stuck in their hidey hole.
15:10Again, no maintenance can happen.
15:11If it's tried, the Novorossiysk trap springs shut, as Ukraine will soon discover that a ship has entered the port's
15:18dry dock.
15:19Here's the simple truth that Putin now has to accept.
15:23Russia doesn't control the Black Sea anymore, and it hasn't for a while.
15:27There is no safety to be found anyway in or around the Black Sea for Russia's ships,
15:32and that extends to a Russian port that was supposed to be out of range.
15:36Ukraine has effectively gained fire control over a huge portion of this naval battleground,
15:41as its combination of missiles, aerial drones and unmanned vessels makes doing practically anything a massive risk for Russia.
15:49All Russia can do now is use the few missile firing warships and subs that it has left as best
15:54as it can.
15:55But they are all targets that are also degrading due to lack of maintenance.
15:59Ukraine feels confident enough to essentially claim victory in the Black Sea, as President Volodymyr Zelensky did in July.
16:07The Ukrainian Navy, together with other components of the defense and security forces, has achieved what many thought was impossible.
16:14Russia has lost the Black Sea, Zelensky claimed.
16:18He wasn't boasting either, as his comment came on the back of outside observers saying the same kind of thing.
16:23Just a couple of months before, the European Commissioner for Defense and Space, Andreas Kubelius,
16:30used the Black Sea forum to note that Ukraine has shifted the balance of power in this arena of the
16:35war.
16:36It's hard to argue with either of them.
16:38Russia's once-dreaded Black Sea fleet has been reduced to a shadow of its former self.
16:43That fleet is basically a turtle, occasionally poking its head out to see if it's safe, though so slow-moving
16:50that every ship in the fleet knows that it's a target.
16:52And all of this, from the fleet degradation to the Novorossiysk trap, means that Ukraine now has leverage.
16:58On September 23rd, the New Voice of Ukraine reported that Ukraine had agreed to contribute to safe navigation and food
17:04security in the Black Sea if Russia is prepared to take steps toward de-escalation.
17:09We agreed to a passage regime that can ensure safety, and now we are awaiting Russia's response, Zelensky declared at
17:16the Crimea platform summit held on that day.
17:19Now, if Zelensky had made this statement in 2022, it wouldn't have meant much.
17:23Russia could have just said,
17:25Our fleet controls the waters, so Ukraine's offer is meaningless.
17:28But in 2026, this offer has much more weight behind it, because Russia knows that refusal to de-escalate means
17:35that Ukraine goes back to what it's already doing.
17:37And if that happens, it just means more ships getting struck and more getting stuck between the rock and the
17:43hard place.
17:43That is the Novorossiysk court trap.
17:46You have to start somewhere, Zelensky said in his offer to de-escalate.
17:50Where better than the naval arena in which Ukraine has scored a massive victory that the Kremlin never saw coming.
17:56If you want to see a deep dive into the technology behind the trap that Ukraine has created, we have
18:01the perfect video for you.
18:03Check it out to learn about the drones, the satellites and the missiles that made the Novorossiysk trap possible.
18:08But before you go, subscribe and tell us what you think in the comments below.
18:12And if you want even more from the channel, consider becoming a member for exclusive content.
18:17And thank you, as always, for watching.
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