00:00Instead of going from feast to famine, we're going from famine to feast here in parts of the south-central
00:07U.S.
00:07We have had very, very little rain, almost no rain in parts of Texas and Oklahoma since August 1st.
00:15And we're going to step from 0.01 inches, I'm going to show you the graphic right now here for
00:20Dallas,
00:200.01 inches over the past, really the past several weeks, the past two months, about eight to nine weeks.
00:30Since August 1st, some of you were sitting at the beach on vacation.
00:33And since then, we haven't had anything more than 0.01 inches of rain in Dallas.
00:38We're looking at three or more inches through Friday.
00:40That's 300 times the amount of rain we've had over the past two months.
00:43And it's not just Dallas. Take a look at this.
00:46Waco, 0.11 inches through midnight last night. We're looking at two to four inches through Friday.
00:51And up into Oklahoma City, similarly dry. Here we've had four-tenths of an inch.
00:55We're looking at two to four inches through Friday.
00:57So we need the rain. Drought has been significant.
01:01But we're dealing with some thunderstorms as well.
01:03And a quick look. We did have a tornado reported.
01:06Aaron Rigsby was out on Tuesday evening and captured it near Amarillo, southwest of Amarillo.
01:13It was rotating as it moved into town.
01:15And he documented a tornado there amid the flash flooding.
01:18There is a small risk for isolated tornadoes here in the southern plains and into the hill country.
01:23Or at least the big country there near San Angelo and Abilene on this Wednesday evening through Wednesday night.
01:29Damaging wind.
01:30But the main concern is absolutely going to be flash flooding.
01:33So I'm going to show you a few graphics and then we'll jump into the computer modeling.
01:36Then we're going to step ahead to the weekend as well, a little farther east.
01:40So through Friday, there are two areas where we have significant concerns.
01:44The nature of the rain in the Midwest is a bit steadier, but it is going to add up.
01:50So I don't think there are going to be more, you know, as many like hour-to-hour changes in
01:55terms of drenching rain.
01:57And then it backs off and then you get another deluge.
01:59This is going to be steady, soaking, drenching rain for hour upon hour from eastern Colorado up into parts of
02:06Iowa.
02:06So farther south, the nature of these storms will be more off and on.
02:11And this could be a little more volatile.
02:13It can lead to quiet spells that ramp right up to dangerous flash flooding in a short order of time.
02:20And you throw in the area that we call Flash Flood Alley west of I-35 here into the hill
02:24country.
02:26That area we've seen a long history, including July 4th of 2025, of some very dangerous flooding there.
02:32So overall, by the numbers, we are looking at four or more inches.
02:37And I'm saying it that way because I know that sometimes people gravitate toward the high number.
02:42We say four to eight, people hear eight inches.
02:44And I have been doing this for about 20 years in TV, at least, to the point that just more
02:52likely four inches is far more likely than eight.
02:55But the range, four to eight, somebody out there could see even more than that.
02:59So we want you to be prepared for an AccuWeather local storm max on some isolated, absolute worst-case scenario.
03:05Somebody could see over a foot of rain, foot to a foot and a half of rain.
03:09But most areas will see two to four inches of rain.
03:11And in the dark green zones, four or more inches of rain.
03:16And the risk to lives and property will be high in some of these areas because of river flooding up
03:22to the north and the areas near southern Iowa, southeastern parts of Nebraska.
03:28And then it's a little more of a flash flood threat here to Texas.
03:32And that's going to be a big danger and a big concern.
03:34Let's jump into some computer models here.
03:37Then we're going to take a glance at the weekend.
03:38So some of this energy in the atmosphere, much of it, and much of the moisture that's been transported in,
03:44has origins from the East Pacific, from Hurricane Polo.
03:48And also Adalis, a former hurricane that was west of Polo, has also been a contributor to the moisture in
03:54this area.
03:55And you'll notice that there's kind of this long, drawn-out front here that's draped across more of the Midwest.
04:02And then you have the abundant moisture farther south that's a little bit more high-octane.
04:06So steady rain to the north.
04:08And as we watch this shear out, you can see that the energy in the jet stream scoops up the
04:15northern part of this and just sweeps it east, weakening it.
04:18And we're just leaving left with some heavy rain that's kind of deposited in parts of Texas.
04:23And that's going to be fed by some new moisture coming in from the Gulf through Friday.
04:29And even into Saturday, we're going to be left with some drenching thunderstorms in parts of south and southeast Texas,
04:34drier to the northwest.
04:35And also more of the southeast is going to see kind of this moisture transport, still with some DNA that
04:42could be tracked back to the eastern part of the Pacific, from Odalis and especially Polo.
04:47And that's going to be supplemented by gulf moisture into the southeast.
04:52So what are we talking about in terms of what this looks like?
04:54You can see the rain.
04:55We go from a pretty limited amount of thunderstorms on Wednesday evening in Texas to drenching thunderstorms late overnight.
05:03There it is into Dallas.
05:05Look at that heavy rain into Thursday morning to midday Thursday.
05:08And it keeps coming down.
05:09And then as it drifts east into Friday, it's not done.
05:12Watch it resurge.
05:14Friday, some showers break back out into north Texas.
05:16Here's another depiction with the NAM slides east and kind of builds back into the Austin-San Antonio area.
05:22The European model hits it hard Thursday night through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, Thursday during the day.
05:30And in the world of the European, it holds the rain over the Dallas area more firmly into Thursday night.
05:37This would take you into that four to eight inch range and into the Canadian model.
05:42Here you can see heavy rain through Dallas, and then it does settle a little farther east.
05:46It's a little more progressive, nudging it east in the Canadian.
05:49Here's the AI sibling to the GFS holding some moderate rain back into Friday in areas around Dallas.
05:55So overall, here's some model depictions.
05:57There's a 6.6-inch forecast in the GFS for Dallas.
06:01Here's a 4.1-inch forecast in the European.
06:04So four inches is more likely than eight.
06:06But we're going to climb into that four to eight-inch range, most likely Dallas north and north-northwest of
06:10there.
06:10Just a narrow margin from the downtown.
06:13Also into Ida-Bell, Oklahoma, heavy rain.
06:15Beware of that.
06:16I wanted to point out one last thing here.
06:19We're going to see some cooler air move back into the plains.
06:22So again, lots of things to track.
06:24A quick look at the east.
06:26First round of showers with the front.
06:28Not that impressive Friday night to Saturday morning for the I-95.
06:31And then the musical question is the wave that develops on Sunday.
06:36How far north does it buckle?
06:38Soaking rain Sunday in the southeast and mid-Atlantic.
06:41Probably into Philly and New York as well.
06:43But probably dry just a little farther to the north.
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