00:00One of these has been unfurling over the past few days. It's getting sheared apart.
00:05Tied to this front right now, showers and storms have been pretty heavy.
00:08Big dogs right now south and southeast of areas around Apalachicola.
00:12Some of that heavy rain will continue to impact areas around the Nature Coast,
00:17that slightly less populated area well north of Tampa, St. Petersburg, all the way up there in the Big Bend.
00:23Meanwhile, look at this. We're highlighting in red an area of likely development here into the next few days.
00:30We're tracking an area of low pressure off to the south.
00:32But in the meantime, just keep in mind, some of the areas that have seen heavy rain over the past
00:37two or three days,
00:39for some of you, it's been five or six inches of rain.
00:42You're going to see some more heavy rain later this weekend, and that's going to be the concern of flooding.
00:48It's going to bring the concern of flooding, and you can still see some showers are out there.
00:51This actually is a product of satellite, so it's an estimate of where the rain is falling,
00:55and you can see a lot of heavy rain south of Brownsville,
00:58but we're getting back into it there in Brownsville and Harlingen and Westlaco,
01:01McAllen, Texas, some of those areas on the edge of some rain associated with this system
01:06that will be likely organizing between Tuesday and Thursday.
01:09In fact, this could become not just a tropical rainstorm,
01:12but an official tropical depression and perhaps tropical storm Isaias.
01:18Remember that one from six years ago?
01:20It's back on the list.
01:21It's been on the list the whole time.
01:22Every six years, there's another I-storm.
01:27Every year, most years, we get into the I-storm, but on this year's list,
01:31it's a repeat of the 2020 list, six years removed, and Isaias is the next name.
01:36And we'll likely see that this week here in the Gulf.
01:39The water's warm, 85, 86 degrees here in the southwestern Gulf, plenty warm.
01:44There's a lot of moisture present, too.
01:46Again, we've had all that heavy rain up on the north side of the Gulf.
01:49The deep reds here, you'll notice on the key, that's the most moisture content,
01:53and we're dealing with high moisture values there in the southwestern Gulf as well.
01:57But the limiting factor is wind shear.
02:00The deep purple, that's where you have strong wind shear.
02:02That would keep these storms disorganized and a little bit lopsided.
02:05Watch what happens as we go from right now.
02:08We're going to spin forward.
02:09There we go through tonight and tomorrow, and actually the deep purple grows a bit,
02:14so there will be increasing wind shear in the northwestern,
02:17and eventually the northern Gulf.
02:19So that could be one argument that may be cause for us to kind of just apply the brakes
02:26before expecting this to really ramp up as a vicious tropical storm too quickly.
02:30You can see the circulation here around midweek down to the south,
02:34kind of on the edge of the area of stronger wind shear.
02:37But nearby into the east, there's an area of more modest wind shear.
02:41So we're kind of in the transition zone.
02:42Here is one version of future radar and clouds.
02:46This is actually fueled by the GFS model, so it's kind of the primary American model
02:50that's helping to populate what this is showing.
02:53It's kind of a cleaned-up, simplified, made-for-TV model.
02:55But here we go Friday, and here's our storm system strengthening well north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
03:01And look at this.
03:02It's late Friday night, early Saturday morning.
03:04We may be dealing with a landfalling storm in the area around the central Gulf Coast.
03:09But keep in mind, that's just one scenario.
03:11There are others, like the European model, that keeps it disorganized and just shears it apart.
03:16It will bring either, regardless, either scenario would bring some heavy rain to north Florida,
03:21whether it's an organized storm or not.
03:24And the message here is it's a pretty similar area that just saw the heavy rain over the weekend.
03:29So, again, there is potential for some localized flooding to return.
03:32And over the main development region of the Atlantic here, no tropical threats here.
03:36We're still in the yellow there for the Lesser Antilles, medium chance of development and impacts Friday,
03:42Saturday, Sunday for the central Gulf Coast.
03:43So this is good news.
03:45We don't have any long-lived Cabo Verde storms that form off the west coast of Africa
03:49and spend two weeks crossing the Atlantic.
03:52Haven't had them this year.
03:53It's been kind of nice.
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