Media Insiders Quietly Admit Major Flaw Before Midterms As The The Polling Panic Begins

Doc Rich

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Transcript

00:00so as you all know midterms are coming up here in a little under a month now and uh i

00:06just wanted

00:06to talk about a couple of things really quickly because we got some new polling okay and um of

00:13course right the the whole notion from most of mainstream media is doom and gloom for republicans

00:19democrats are about to you know have a blue wave and all of this other crap you know same thing

00:26they did in 2016 and all of the in in all elections since 2016 i should say is just doom

00:33and gloom for

00:33republicans and republicans have no shot and all of this other stuff um and it's never really panned

00:40out right never really panned out and i don't think it's going to pan out again in these upcoming

00:45midterms now of course we still got to show up we still have to vote but i do think and

00:50i'm sticking

00:51to this i do think we're going to win i think we're going to keep the house and we're going

00:55to keep

00:56the senate um that's just my prediction as of right now i still got some time to change but

01:02i see no reason to change it thus far so i got a couple of clips that i want to

01:06show you

01:07one with steve kornacki and one with harry enton so i'm going to play the harry enton one first let's

01:13get into it yeah it's voter registration the long-term long-term health of the republican party

01:19versus the democratic party in terms of how are you registered to vote democrat independent or

01:24non-affiliated or republican you can see in the key swing states that we normally look at in

01:28presidential elections that look the republicans are gaining versus where they were eight years ago

01:34during trump's first midterm election take a look here gop gains in party registration margin versus

01:38election day 2018 in arizona the republican margin versus a democrat republicans are up four points

01:43how about nevada republicans up five points how about north carolina republicans up eight points

01:48how about the commonwealth of pennsylvania republicans up seven points so when you take a look at how

01:54people are actually registering this is not polling data compared to where we were eight years ago

01:59republicans are doing considerably better in what are the swing states at least normally in

02:05presidential elections okay so someone could look at this and say harry this is 2018 what about in the

02:09last two years because trends the polling at least has been moving in democrats favor yeah okay you see

02:15the polling over the last two years really moving in the democrats favor but are they actually gaining

02:19in terms of registration at least compared to where we were two years ago well i think this makes it

02:24pretty simple right pretty simple in pennsylvania no north carolina no nevada no arizona no there may be

02:31some tiny late gains that are going on right now right that i think over the last month maybe democrats

02:36are getting but when you take the longer term view versus the 2024 election in which republicans won all of

02:42these states democrats are in fact not actually gaining ground i'm glad you put in that disclaimer

02:48because over the last couple months i think people have seen some ticks up for democrats but not over

02:53two years correct there's been some ticks up but they no way blows away the republican gains okay so put

02:58this in historical perspective how good is this these bigger trends for republicans yes you see the

03:03so basically over the course of um several years now republicans have gained in uh voter registration

03:11massive numbers and over the past month or so democrats have have um tried to eat into that but

03:21obviously has come nowhere near succeeding um they've just managed to out register republicans over the past

03:30month which means absolutely nothing when republicans have out uh registered democrats um since 2018

03:38okay so it means absolutely nothing these trends in these key swing states how about this one okay

03:45take a look here the gop's best party registration position relative to the democrats in a midterm in at

03:51least 20 years pennsylvania north carolina nevada arizona the bottom line is this republicans right now

03:59are in a much stronger position than they have been not just compared to eight years ago but over

04:05the long term as well the relative health of the republican party at least in terms of party

04:09registration is pretty gosh darn good relative to the if you're talking about registration over the

04:13last 10 15 20 years one state where we've seen some really big shifts is florida what are the

04:18prediction markets saying about what might happen there if you will yeah i remember when florida was a

04:21swing state i remember when florida was a swing state but look at this okay the chance that the gop

04:25wins the key races in florida how about that senate race ashley moody look at that a 91 chance

04:30byron donald's in the gubernatorial race that one's a little bit tighter but even there byron

04:34donald's is the favorite a 76 chance according to the cash prediction markets the bottom line is that

04:39florida has had major gains for republicans and party registration and it's reflected in the races in

04:43which people are running here yeah so uh keep that in mind okay gop's best party registration position

04:54in all of these states all of these states okay now i want to dive into another video with uh

05:03steve

05:03kornacki on nbc so let's get into that shall we let's pause the conversation for a moment go back to

05:09steve kornacki so steve we're talking about the state of play here these key races that have really

05:15been jumbled quite frankly right now there are nine seats on nbc's battleground list but the list of

05:21potentially competitive seats much bigger than that what are you watching yeah take a look at

05:24the senate side here and what we're seeing right now in the polling call it up here um these are

05:30the democratic held seats here you mentioned like georgia john ossoff at the start of the cycle as

05:35you're talking about republicans had made noise here about maybe flipping this you're not hearing

05:39that anymore you can see the answer why they're in the polling chris pappas the democratic nominee in

05:44new hampshire leading about five and a half points on average interestingly here of all the

05:49democratic held seats where there's you know some potential uh uh for a competitive election night

05:54here minnesota right now might be the closest one that's peggy flanagan the lieutenant governor

06:00and there's a lot of political issues there inside minnesota involving the walls administration some

06:04backlash from the uh the public there she's the lieutenant governor only one point advantage for her in

06:09the polls but again here republican held seats you talk about democrats needing a net gain of four

06:14in the polling look at this you're seeing seven republican held excuse me eight republican held

06:19seats right here where democrats have some kind of lead in the polling and really that raises a

06:24question here obviously we know the atmosphere is tough for republicans we know the potentials here

06:29for democrats but there is a question here about the polling because we've seen this when trump ran in

06:342016 20 and even in 2024 and we saw this in the 2018 midterm as well states that have larger

06:41rural

06:42white blue collar and older populations that's a rich source of support for trump and we have seen

06:49those voters not always caught in the polling and i'm reminded of the 2018 midterm because you're

06:54looking here at some of these red states where you see democrats leading here you see places like

06:58kansas places like iowa here okay think back to 2018 battlegrounds were in in states like missouri senate

07:05battlegrounds in states like missouri tennessee indiana do you remember indiana had a democratic

07:10senator up for re-election in 2018 the polling in all these states in 2018 in the senate races

07:16was dead even going into the election and they ended up being republican blowouts in all of them

07:21there was support there that either arrived very late or was even in all of those races in republican

07:29blowouts keep that in mind i'm gonna let them finish though missed in the polling and there's a lot

07:36of states on this list right now that democrats are targeting and where they're seeing encouraging

07:40polling that have the same or similar demographic profile i'm so i want to go back to that right

07:51so explain to me

07:54explain to me how in minnesota

07:58i can't i can't think of her first name but flanagan who was a democrat uh nominee

08:05is ahead by one point one percent in minnesota of all places but in iowa

08:19the democrat is up in kansas

08:25maine we're not main alaska michigan texas but the democrats struggling in minnesota

08:33but these democrats are going to beat a republican in red states

08:42something ain't adding up here something isn't adding up here in uh frank luntz uh posted something

08:49that i found quite interesting let me see if i still can find yes here we go so this is

08:56what

08:57frank luntz had posted if republican voters aren't answering polls the polls could end up making the

09:04same mistake they did in 2016

09:09yeah

09:11as a matter of fact i had my first opportunity to uh participate in a poll i didn't but

09:18i found it quite interesting because i've always said you know i've never been

09:22you know asked to take a poll or anything like that i've never been contacted and then i finally was

09:27i didn't take it though and i feel like a lot of republicans are that way most of us don't

09:33participate in polls

09:34we just don't we have lives and jobs and other things that need to be attended to

09:38while all of these leftists just sit on their behinds all day long twiddling their thumbs so

09:44yeah they're gonna answer the polls and some of us the few of us that do the few republicans that

09:50do

09:50answer the polls i feel like a lot of us would rather lie than to tell the truth because we

09:57don't

09:57know where this information is going we don't know if you if you answer yeah i'm voting for a

10:02republican if if they're gonna leak our information or something crazy like that

10:06leftists are are bats you know what crazy

10:10you know so yeah i'm i'm not buying

10:15i'm not buying this this polling that uh steve kornacki put up there

10:20like sure i could see roy cooper winning in north carolina because he was a former governor

10:27and i've talked about this before that that name recognition is important guys it really is

10:32because you gotta think most people aren't really super plugged into politics you know

10:39so they're not delving into politics the way that we are

10:43so when they see a name that they recognize a lot of times they'll just choose that person

10:49because they recognize it in north carolina people are going to recognize that name

10:53okay i don't see i don't see ohio going with brown talarico no abdurakman el saeed no

11:03alaska no um kansas iowa no maybe maine okay

11:15these maybe yeah i i i could see it right going democrat i don't see it going democrat by nine

11:21points it'll be a lot closer than that but i could see john ossoff winning in georgia

11:30and honestly i think the republican genuinely has a shot at winning in minnesota

11:36and if that is the case then all of these other folks are losing minus roy cooper

11:44and i don't i don't like i said i don't think that's going to be that big of a margin

11:48either

11:50i think that's going to be a lot closer but roy cooper will pull out the w in north carolina

11:56unfortunately but if the republican wins in minnesota you can bet that michigan republican

12:03texas republican ohio republican iowa kansas alaska all the same thing all the same thing

12:12and that is doomed for democrats that's that's not what they want to hear right that's that's not the

12:17blue wave uh that that they desperately need so yeah i just wanted to share that with you all give

12:24you guys a little bit of encouragement especially in today's world where it's just so much doom and

12:29gloom for republicans republicans have no shot at winning but just remember that's what they've

12:33always done they've done the same thing in every single election kamala kamala has run a flawless

12:39campaign and donald trump is reeling because of the nazi rally he had at madison square garden and

12:45i've talked to some some hispanics and they're all angry and blah blah blah and none of it happened

12:51she lost every single swing state and the popular vote whoop-de-do you know what i mean

12:59time after time after time again we we end up pulling it out in the end you know and it

13:04all goes

13:05back to something trump said a long time ago he said the silent majority we're still here we haven't gone

13:11anywhere so don't buy into it there it's it's meant to uh discourage you from participating um and uh

13:20don't pay attention to these these these so-called right wingers who are out here saying uh don't vote

13:27we're gonna punish republicans and all this stupid shit excuse my language but i'm so sick of those types

13:33of folks bro i really am i really am okay um i'm not gonna mention any names they don't deserve

13:40to

13:40be mentioned but like that that is some of the dumbest stuff i've ever heard well we're gonna

13:44punish republicans no you're only punishing yourself you idiot um so you allow democrats to take over

13:52rather than keeping republicans in the seat and most of the republicans that you would want to

13:57uh so-called punish they don't really care if they're in the majority or not do you think john

14:02thune gives a ratch you know what if he's the senate majority leader no he doesn't care as long

14:07as he's in the senate doesn't matter to him same thing with people like lisa murkowski you think she

14:12cares if republicans are in the majority no she doesn't care so the only person you're punishing

14:18by not voting is yourself you know and i find it i find it hilarious how some of these so

14:25-called

14:25folks on the right who say stuff like this consider themselves intelligent like no you're not

14:31you're not you're not not even close yeah just hand the keys to it's like

14:40you know oh my goodness never mind i i was about to say something that was really rude um

14:48my goodness anyway

14:51get out of vote uh it matters um let's not hand the keys back to

14:58um you know these far leftists because if you thought it was bad before it'll be even worse

15:04this time okay it'll be even worse but get in the comments let me know your thoughts and your

15:08opinions and as always stay safe out there peace and love i'm out

15:11you

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