00:01The two key oil benchmarks are down more than 1% since Friday, but the slightly bigger picture
00:07is that the oil prices hung on to the rises made last week caused by the fighting between
00:11Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis, as well as a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
00:16The local share market rose for a second day in a row, with solid gains by banks and big
00:20miners, offset to some extent by falling retailers and energy stocks.
00:24Shares in New York went up on Friday along with London and Hong Kong today, while the
00:30Korean market fell.
00:31Saturday was the fourth anniversary of the American bull market that started on October
00:3610, 2022, five weeks before the release of ChatGPT kicked off the era of AI.
00:44Since then, the S&P 500 index has increased 120%, entirely because of AI.
00:50This table compares the past four years with the first four years of previous bull markets.
00:57The rise from 1982 was 131% after four years and then 229% in five years before the 1987
01:06crash brought it to a shuddering halt.
01:08And then the market rose 68% in the first four years of a 13-year bull market that ended
01:14with another shuddering crash in March 2000.
01:17And then, after the GFC in 2009, the US market rose 130% in four years but ended up 400
01:25% through
01:26an 11-year bull market that ended with, yes, another shuddering crash in 2020 caused by COVID
01:32this time.
01:33So will this one end in a crash as well?
01:36Well, no doubt, but it always takes longer than you expect.
01:40But while the US market has more than doubled in four years, the Australian market is up
01:44a measly 28% because we don't make AI, we just worry about it.
01:49Finally, the Australian dollar remains stuck just under 70 US cents and just above 62 euro cents.
01:56And that's fine ends.
01:58Yeah, let's find out.
