- 5 hours ago
The Indian rupee strengthened by 60 paise against the US dollar to open at 95.17, recovering from recent 97 levels following reserve interventions by the Reserve Bank of India. In commodities, MCX silver dropped by 600 rupees to 2.22 lakh rupees per kilogram, while gold traded flat at 1.49 lakh rupees per 10 grams. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund raised India's FY27 economic growth forecast to 7% from 6.4%, while trimming China's outlook and warning about stretched global resilience and tight energy supplies. Dalal Street witnessed a weak start as the Nifty slipped below 22,300, even as IT stocks gained over 1.5% led by Tata Consultancy Services and HCLTech. Additionally, Tata Motors finalised an execution pact with Stellantis to manufacture passenger vehicles, including a prospective Jeep SUV based on the Tata Sierra platform, for more than 50 international export markets.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Straight away looking at the rupee breaking. The Indian rupee has opened at 95.17 vis-a-vis a 95
00:08.77 per dollar close.
00:10There is another 60 paisa gain on the rupee against the dollar. Remember this is right after the weekend action
00:17by the RBI to support the rupee.
00:20Two consecutive days of strengthening action as far as the Indian rupee is concerned.
00:25We are now looking at an improvement from 97 levels per dollar again that we had been witnessing in the
00:32last week or so.
00:33Now closing in at the 95 per dollar mark as well.
00:37Let's also look at some of the other key breaking news and this is with regards to the commodities.
00:41The gold and silver prices. MCX Silver falls 600 rupees to trade at 2.22 lakh rupees per kilogram.
00:48We are looking at MCX Gold trading flat at 1.49 lakh rupees per 10 grams.
00:56We will straight away look at the big story we are tracking for you this morning.
01:00The IMF has now warned the global economy could soon test the limits of resilience with emergency oil stocks now
01:06running low and government budgets becoming overstressed.
01:09It is twice early world economic outlook.
01:13Also we are looking at the IMF saying that global growth had withstood the Middle East conflict better than fear
01:19over the past six months.
01:20And once again, India has emerged as a bright spot with its FY27 growth forecast sharply raised to 7%
01:27from 6.4% earlier.
01:30However, China's growth projection has been trimmed by 10 basis points as well.
01:38So we have a global economy that has been very resilient, but we may be reaching some of the limits
01:45of that resilience.
01:47And so indeed, the war in the Middle East and the high energy prices has been a big factor, one
01:56of the main forces.
01:57But then the part that's, I think, important to take away from it is that we've also seen a lot
02:04of resilience within commodity markets.
02:06The base of global growth is getting narrower.
02:10And so you could say that there is some fragility or vulnerability embedded in that.
02:16And indeed, we are seeing a fairly small number of countries that are benefiting from this AI-related boom.
02:27And the bulk of the economies are affected by the energy shock and such.
02:34And that is the dominating factor for many of those economies that are not plugged in in the AI.
02:43Right, let's actually welcome our guest on board.
02:45We are joined by Chakri Lokprea, the managing partner of RSP LLP.
02:49Joining in with us, Chakri, good morning.
02:50Good to have you with us.
02:52Well, good news flowing in right at the early morning stage.
02:54You're looking at the IMF upgrading India's growth forecast to 7%.
02:59More vote of confidence from global voices coming in for India at a time when we've seen the impact of
03:05the West Asia crisis.
03:06But looking at how India's micros are also improving and global voices also pointing out to growth outlook on the
03:12positive end.
03:13You know, do the markets also now look at it as a sentiment improvement factor?
03:19Good morning.
03:20You know, clearly the 7% number is a good news to have.
03:24And the world is growing at about 3.4%.
03:28India's inflation, on the other hand, has grown faster because of high oil prices, high commodity prices to about 5
03:35.5%.
03:35So that, you know, takes, that's the dampener for India's growth story.
03:41Because, you know, India is an import-dependent country and therefore margins for the companies will be held back.
03:50So I think we need to wait and watch and hope that, you know, oil comes back down sometime in
03:562027, early 2027.
03:59Absolutely, Chakri.
04:00And we're also looking at, you know, U.S. President Donald Trump also doing a U-turn with regards to
04:06ensuring that the oil supply is continued going forward from here with his statements on Russia of late.
04:13Give us an understanding if the situation stabilizes around crude oil prices and with India's growth outlook also increasingly, you
04:20know, being improved by more and more global voices.
04:23Will FIIs look at India more favorably now?
04:27You know, two things.
04:28One is, you know, clearly oil.
04:31Oil is, you know, India is hugely dependent.
04:33We all know that.
04:34And oil prices have gone up like 60-70% in this year, in 2026, here to date.
04:41So if your oil price is going down by 50%, it will be a phenomenally big thing.
04:46Can it do that?
04:47Probably by 2028, not in 2027, because supplies of oil are very tight.
04:53So which means this trade on the rupee would continue well into 2027.
04:58Second on the question on FIIs, the markets are trading at, you know, close to their bottom multiples 16-17
05:06times.
05:08Earnings are fairly intact, but what is not, what is coming down is margins, which means valuations come down with
05:14that.
05:15So until that stabilizes, I think, FIIs, but again, this is the kind of bottom that's made.
05:21Okay, and what about the rupee improvement?
05:23How are you looking at that as a market participant?
05:26This was something that was being waited and watched out for for a long time.
05:29Now, finally, there are some stern steps by the RBI that is resulting in some improvement on the rupee.
05:34How would you look at that?
05:36You know, RBI has results for the next probably 10, 11, 1.
05:39So, I don't, you know, that's not the only factor.
05:43What we really need is the oil price coming down, which is not going to happen anytime soon.
05:50Absolutely.
05:51Just about six seconds to go before the markets open up.
05:54We're looking at a positive open at this point in time.
05:58Let's see how good we stand up.
05:59So, flat, 22,353.
06:03At this point in time for the Nifty, quickly slipping below the flat line.
06:06At this point in time, let's look at the other key factors.
06:10It's a market breadth that also talks about weakness.
06:13Remember, we are entering the weekly options expiry on the weak note.
06:16IT stocks, however, could be in the limelight.
06:191.6% higher for the Nifty IT index.
06:22That seems to be the only index among various sectors that could be hoping for a sustained up move.
06:28Whereas the others have seen a sharp decline.
06:31Autos, infrastructure, banking names, PSU banks, private banks, financial services, down in trade.
06:37Even the broader markets.
06:38Remember, the small caps were hovering much higher yesterday.
06:41I've seen some profit taking.
06:42The Nifty has slipped below 20 to 300 very swiftly in the opening trade.
06:48HCL Tech after the earnings, 1.8% higher.
06:51As the top mover, TCS continues to move up about 2.5% higher as well.
06:55Tech Mahindra, Infosys.
06:57So, among the large caps, it's only the IT space that's hovering higher.
07:01Some gains coming in on the banking names like HDFC Bank.
07:04You're looking at Tata Consumer Products from the consumption space.
07:08Adani Ports and Grassim remain to be the other big movers at this point in time.
07:12Real estate, some stocks are also showing you some strength.
07:15The index is up by 0.2%.
07:17And FMCG is also showing you some strength right at the open as well.
07:20But clearly, IT space that continues to be in the limelight.
07:24Chakri, how are you looking at the initial set of numbers coming in after TCS?
07:28It was HCL Tech.
07:29What would your approach be here?
07:31You know, HCL Tech, one sliver of good news was that the AI bit of the revenue was up about
07:38nearly 24%.
07:40The overall revenue growth of the services business is still only about 3% or 4%.
07:44So, this shows that if these companies can pivot faster towards AI, there's lots of growth out there.
07:52TCS is doing slightly differently.
07:53They're doing data centers, huge growth area.
07:55So, that as an area could support the stock.
07:58But as a sector, I would still be cautious of it.
08:03What about the broader market names on the IT space?
08:06Do those give you some more comfort vis-a-vis the large caps even now?
08:11See, you know, for instance, different companies are approaching AI in a different way.
08:17TCS is doing data centers, which is a large ticket item, but phenomenal growth.
08:22And therefore, you know, it can do that.
08:25And so, individual companies will be rewarded rather than the whole sector.
08:30Okay.
08:31TCS, in fact, is pulling up sharply ahead.
08:33Now, you're looking at the day's high point.
08:362.2% higher for the IT index.
08:38And TCS also hovering higher at 2,200 levels, 3.5% higher.
08:43HCL Tech now 4% higher is what you're looking at.
08:47Tech Mahindra also pulls up 1.8% up.
08:49Infos is also up by 1.2%.
08:51So, the IT space clearly in focus.
08:53There is some improvement in the banking names immediately after the opening lows.
08:57You're looking at the private banks, PSU banks and financial services quickly move up into trade.
09:03Nifty Bank is also back into the green, 0.4% higher.
09:06Any suggestion as far as the banking names are concerned?
09:10How are you approaching the banking space, Chakri, at this point in time?
09:14After the recent RBI measures on liquidity also?
09:17Indeed.
09:18You know, the liquidity is fairly okay.
09:20And, you know, higher interest rates is also actually, hopefully it doesn't hurt.
09:23Actually, it will help banks and NBFC.
09:26So, I think PSU banks are still, I would think, well positioned.
09:30You know, individual companies like Axis Bank are okay.
09:33But PSU banks, as a fact, yes.
09:36Hmm, okay.
09:37We're also looking at the real estate names now pulling up higher.
09:400.2% up in trade at this point in time.
09:43FMCG, autos, those are the other rate-sensitive sectors that are also pulling up in trade.
09:49You know, any suggestion here on the rate-sensitive fact?
09:52What would your approach be here?
09:54Are any sectors looking better than the others right now,
09:57which may be poised to still deal the blow of the rate hike?
10:02Within the rate-sensitive, I think the industrials, the infrastructure,
10:06as in the power utilities, companies like Culpatru,
10:10these companies are better positioned because the growth is out there.
10:13And even though they are rate-sensitive, growth will sustain their valuations.
10:19Absolutely.
10:20Let me also just look at some of the broader names that we are looking at at this point in
10:25time.
10:25Some names that are moving up in trade.
10:28Well, you do have very far and few between names that may be higher.
10:32Sugar space stocks, let's look at.
10:34The entire space was up and about in yesterday's trade as well.
10:37You know, we are looking at some move coming in onto those two again.
10:41And we are looking at some textile names that are also moving up in the session as well.
10:47Let's talk about some of these spaces, you know, within the broader markets also.
10:52Chakri, any suggestion on, you know, how things are panning out
10:56as far as the global scenario is concerned?
10:59Would you still be cautious as far as these export-oriented names are concerned, like textiles?
11:05Textiles, clearly, yes.
11:06You know, because, you know, the tariff situation still remains a big uncertainty.
11:11And generally, the valuations are, while the valuations are okay, the growth is the problem.
11:19The main thing that we are facing is growth.
11:21So, I'll stay away from that.
11:22But within that, you know, auto ancillaries as a space for exports looks okay.
11:27Yeah, absolutely.
11:28And auto was the other one that I wanted to discuss with you.
11:31Looking at how things may pan out from here,
11:34we are looking at another rate hike possibility in December as well.
11:38Already we have seen so far, because of the impact of the West Asia war,
11:43a lot of these companies have moved in to pass on the costs to the consumers too.
11:48Your suggestion of how would you approach the auto space?
11:52Autos have done well, whether it's Hero Motors or TVS Motors.
11:56M&M, again, will probably benefit in the current environment
11:59because, hopefully, the monsoon, even though it's deficit,
12:03still it hasn't impacted the rural thing.
12:06So, you know, I think interest rates is actually what you call a very inflation-driven thing.
12:12If oil prices come off tomorrow, then interest rates are unlikely to be.
12:16So, it's still a wait and watch, but I wouldn't go all hog into autos yet.
12:20Okay. In fact, sticking with the autos, let's shift focus to the news flow
12:25that Tata Motors is shifting gears on the global stage,
12:29having inked a major manufacturing pact with automotive giant Stellantis.
12:33Tata will be using its Indian factories to develop cars for over 50 markets worldwide
12:38for Stellantis, a brand which comprises auto companies like Jeep, Fiat, Chrysler,
12:45also Dodge, Citroën and even Alfa Romeo.
12:48Under the new agreement, these vehicles will be manufactured
12:51at the company's joint venture facility in Pune.
12:53Reports are also indicating that one of the first joint products
12:56could actually be an all-new Jeep SUV based on the Tata Sierra.
13:01For more on this, let me actually go across to my colleague Chetan Bhutani
13:05who has more details on the same.
13:06Chetan, seems like good news.
13:08What would it mean for Tata Motors to be building vehicles
13:12for over 50 international markets and for various car companies?
13:16And the brands that I read out as well.
13:21It's basically a move seen from the Tata Motors passenger vehicle segment
13:26to basically expand its presence into the export markets member.
13:30Marty, Suzuki, Hyundai are big players when it comes to exports
13:35and Tata Motors, Mahindra are actually lagging in the race.
13:38So now with this Stellantis type, we'll see Tata Motors actually going ahead
13:43with the race for 50 global markets for exports.
13:46What will be the technology sharing issue?
13:48I'll explain that.
13:49Saksha, maybe Stellantis will actually leverage its product development
13:52and engineering capabilities which they are actually an expert in.
13:55In India, the developed vehicles suited to the requirement of 50 global markets.
13:59Tata Motors on the other side will provide Stellantis
14:02to its advanced product vehicle technology platform
14:06and its manufacturing architecture as well.
14:08Existing relationship remains.
14:10The partnership actually aims to use India's engineering competitiveness
14:13and manufacturing scale to expand exports
14:15and strengthen India's role in Stellantis' global production network.
14:19So it's a big win situation for both the companies.
14:21In fact, in February 26, we saw both the companies sign an MOU
14:26and successfully now in October, we have the MOU going forward
14:29through an execution model as well.
14:31So yes, win-win situation for both Tata Motors
14:33will actually now gain in exports as well.
14:36Absolutely.
14:37A lot of Jeep enthusiasts will be watching out for this first SUV
14:41that will come out, Chetan.
14:42Give us an understanding of what are you expecting here?
14:45Would it be different from the one that people go for right now?
14:49What could be the exciting features that one can actually expect here?
14:53Well, actually, when we read the company statement
14:56announced to the exchanges,
14:58the modern details have not been announced, of course.
15:00But when we speak to company officials
15:01and of course what we hear through experts and other players,
15:05we know that, of course, the J1J Jeep has been codenamed.
15:09Of course, it will be based on the Sierra platform.
15:12But yes, let me assure you to all the Jeep lovers out there
15:15that it will not be any different from what you've been driving earlier.
15:19The Stellantis model will remain.
15:21The power, the growth will be there for the car.
15:24And even if the Jeep SUV will be based on Tata Sierra,
15:27the architecture, the DNA of Stellantis will always be there
15:31no matter what Sierra's engine comes over
15:34and you might feel the engine gets weaker.
15:36So nothing to worry about.
15:37The DNA of Stellantis will remain.
15:40Okay, thanks a lot, Chetan, for getting us those details.
15:43Let me take a quick view from our guest, Chakri, as well.
15:47Chakri, how are you looking at Tata Motors passenger vehicles
15:50tapping onto this opportunity of expanding its presence globally?
15:55It's a good business move for the company
15:58because, you know, the Stellantis has brands right across
16:01from the Maseratis, which are the premium end
16:04to the everyday fiats.
16:07And so which means across price points,
16:10Tata's presence and engineering capability would expand
16:13across several platforms
16:16and also with technology changing very fast.
16:20This is clearly a win-win, but it is not a...
16:23I think probably it will impact volumes positively
16:26at PlopiHR.
16:28All right, okay.
16:29Chakri, before I let you go,
16:31are there any specific sectors, teams that you're tracking
16:34that are all set to move up the ladder
16:37and participate right from the front
16:39when the recovery comes in place?
16:41You know, what are you really looking forward to
16:43and waiting for a turnaround or a pivot?
16:47You know, two things.
16:48One as an investment is industrials,
16:50companies like Kalpatru, KEC, L&T in the large cap space.
16:55And the second one is if you want to do a trade,
16:58a trade, not an investment,
17:00then maybe it's like a TCS and HCLT
17:03for another 5-10%.
17:05Okay, fantastic.
17:07That sounds good for all our viewers
17:08looking at both investment and trading ideas
17:12from Chakri as well.
17:13Chakri, thanks a lot for being with us.
17:15With that, viewers, it's time to wrap.
17:17But before we let you go,
17:18the latest edition of the Business Today magazine
17:20is already out
17:21and our cover story takes you into India's booming space economy.
17:25A new generation of startups is turning ISRO's decades of expertise
17:29into thriving private space industry.
17:32India now already has around 450 space startups
17:34and Skyroot Aerospace also has recently made history
17:38with the launch of Vikram1,
17:40marking a major milestone for India's private space sector.
17:44But the big question is,
17:45can these early breakthroughs translate
17:47into sustainable businesses and long-term profits?
17:51We explore India's space bet,
17:53the opportunities ahead
17:55and the challenges that will shape
17:57the next phase of growth.
17:59You grab your copies right there on the stands
18:02or you can also order in on Blinkit.
18:12Well, that's a wrap right here,
18:13but many thanks for tuning in.
18:15I'll be back to track the closing action
18:17on The Last Street at 3.05pm on India Today,
18:19so stay tuned for that.
18:20We'll see you next time.