- 1 day ago
Kevin Sheehan gives his keys to a victory for the Washington Commanders to pull off a big upset vs the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. Kevin emphasizes third-down sustainability, pocket execution for Jayden Daniels, the Brian Flores defensive scheme history against Kyle Shanahan, and solutions to beat all-out blitzes.
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00:00All right, so there are two interesting things about this game tonight, one of which I'm going to guess that
00:06most of you did not know, all right?
00:08The first is this, and you do know this.
00:11The 49ers are 5-0, and they're a really, really good team, as we know.
00:16They have Hall of Famers littered across their roster.
00:20Some of them are older players, no doubt, and they are so well coached.
00:26We know that.
00:27But the 49ers' five wins really and truly has included one high-quality win, and that was last week in
00:36Seattle.
00:37Hell of a football game.
00:38Did you know, if you weren't paying attention last week, Seattle turned the ball over four times in the game.
00:44Now, San Francisco turned it over three times, but four takeaways in that game.
00:48San Francisco only has seven takeaways for the season in five games, and four of them came in that game.
00:56Without all four, they don't win the game.
00:59Now, they gave it away themselves, understood, Seattle got the benefit of that, but they played Sam Darnold on one
01:06of those days in which Darnold just wasn't seeing it.
01:09And I'll tell you why coming up here in a moment, because San Francisco is really athletic on defense, much
01:16more so than I really knew before watching some of their more recent games.
01:20But Darnold threw two picks.
01:22He couldn't see it, took five sacks.
01:25You know, it was that kind of Sam Darnold experience.
01:29They couldn't stay on the field on third down.
01:33And really, the reason Seattle was in it, because of San Francisco's giveaways, but San Francisco won it because of
01:39four takeaways.
01:41But the four wins before that, the Rams in Australia, all right, we know what happened there.
01:46Now, it also turns out the Rams may not be as good as anybody thought, although I would certainly not
01:52bet against them at this point to not turn their season around.
01:56But they had travel plans.
01:59They thought it made sense.
02:00And they looked listless in that game.
02:0349ers had been there all week.
02:05They looked like the highly energetic team.
02:07I think you throw week one results out anyway.
02:11I think you definitely throw a week one result when they're playing halfway around the world.
02:16You throw that out.
02:17Week two, they beat the Dolphins.
02:20Terrible team.
02:21Week three, they beat the Cardinals.
02:23The Cardinals just beat the Rams.
02:25Understood.
02:25But they beat the Cardinals.
02:27The Cardinals aren't a very good team.
02:28But, man, the Cardinals generated some offense.
02:32That Jacoby Brissett can still do it, man.
02:34He can still do it.
02:36He is a starter, back half of the league starter, but he can still do it.
02:41Then they beat Denver in a game in which Denver defensively was great.
02:44But we know this about Denver so far this season.
02:48They can't score.
02:49They legitimately cannot score.
02:52They are a terrible offensive football team.
02:55And then last week, they beat Seattle.
02:57So, I think of the five wins, there's really one quality win, and that was last week.
03:03And they put Sam Darnold in a bind, and you got the worst of Sam Darnold, which you get occasionally.
03:10Darnold is, you know, a guy that if everything is on schedule, on time, running game, working, right scheme, Kubiak,
03:19Shanahan, McVay scheme, he's really good because he can make every throw.
03:23But if you put him into pressure situations where he can't see it and he can't figure out, he makes
03:29big mistakes.
03:30Somebody needs to tell Sam Darnold it's okay to punt.
03:35So, that's number one about this matchup.
03:37The 49ers are 5-0 and very impressive.
03:40But, who have they really beaten other than the Seahawks on the road last week?
03:46And that's an impressive win, no doubt.
03:49Secondly, and I thought about this, and I'm going to tell you why I knew this and why I knew
03:54to even look at this.
03:56And it's because when Kirk was in Minnesota, I paid attention to the Vikings.
04:01And in 2023, he was having legitimately his best season when he tore his Achilles.
04:08That Minnesota team was the only really good defensive team he played on.
04:12And they beat the 49ers on a Monday night.
04:15And then I just started to think, hmm, I wonder what Brian Flores and Brian Flores schemes have done against
04:23Kyle Shanahan.
04:25Here are the most three, the three recent results.
04:28And these are the results with him as a recent defensive coordinator in Minnesota.
04:32And then he was a big part of the defensive side in Pittsburgh in 22.
04:37And then as the head coach in Miami, remember, in 2019, 2020, and 2021.
04:44So, there are three matchups against the 49ers.
04:47Once as the Dolphins head coach and twice as the Minnesota defensive coordinator.
04:54They won all three games, his teams did, against Kyle Shanahan's 49er teams.
05:01I'll give you the results.
05:02Let me go back to 2020.
05:03He was the head coach of the Dolphins.
05:05It's a COVID year.
05:06Weird year.
05:07All right.
05:07They're playing in San Francisco.
05:10The Dolphins won that game as a nine-point underdog, 43-17.
05:16Now, they ended up going 10-6 that year.
05:18So, we didn't know at that point in the season because it was October 11th, 2020.
05:23So, nobody knew the Dolphins were going to be a competitive football team.
05:26They did not make the playoffs, if you recall.
05:28They played Buffalo in the final game of the year and lost 56-26 to get knocked out of the
05:33playoffs.
05:34But they beat the 49ers, 43-17.
05:37Their defense had three takeaways, and two of them were Garoppolo interceptions.
05:43He was the starter.
05:44He ended up getting benched when the game was over, late.
05:46San Francisco was 2 of 10 on third downs.
05:51They only had 259 yards of total offense.
05:54But here's something that was very important.
05:58Miami's offense that day, they had a 37-minute to 23-minute time of possession advantage.
06:09They rolled up with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, 436 yards, and he was 22 of 28 for 350 and three
06:18touchdowns, no picks.
06:20That was Brian Flores against Kyle Shanahan, head coach against head coach in 2020.
06:262023, the game that I referenced, was a Monday night game.
06:31The Vikings won it 22-17.
06:33Three takeaways for Brian Flores' defense against San Francisco's offense.
06:40In that game, by the way, Minnesota did not have Justin Jefferson on offense.
06:46And they were dominant offensively.
06:50Forget about the point total.
06:528 of 13 on third downs, 452 yards, a 35 to 25-minute, a 10-minute time of possession advantage.
07:01Cousins was 35 of 45 for 378 with no running game and no Justin Jefferson.
07:09He spread the ball around to nine different receivers.
07:11And the Vikings won that game 22-17.
07:15That was, without a doubt, the best team that Cousins was on in Minnesota.
07:21And then he tore his Achilles the next week when they had a big lead at Lambeau.
07:26And then, two years ago, September 15, 2024, Minnesota hosting San Francisco in week two.
07:37The 49ers offensively, 2 of 10 on third down.
07:41They had two takeaways, Minnesota's defense did.
07:44Six sacks on Purdy.
07:46Now, they did not have McCaffrey in that game.
07:50But Jordan Mason went 20 for 100 for five yards per carry.
07:56But Minnesota won that game with Sam Darnold at quarterback in 2024 with excellent defense.
08:02They won it 23-17.
08:04Minnesota went over 400 yards offensively in that game.
08:07Didn't have quite the time of possession advantage that they had in the others.
08:11So, the point being, Brian Flores, not Durante Jones, but Durante Jones running a scheme similar to Brian Flores.
08:21He, for whatever reason, has stymied Kyle Shanahan.
08:25Now, a big part of those games, I wanted to point it out, was the offense for Miami and then
08:33for Minnesota twice did their job.
08:36They kept the football away from San Francisco.
08:39But when San Francisco was on the field, they struggled.
08:43And the game that I remember specifically was the game in 23, and Purdy was confused.
08:49We know what that Brian Flores defense does.
08:52They confuse quarterbacks.
08:54And Purdy was hitching.
08:55He was like, nope, can't throw it there.
08:57They just jumped that route.
09:00And all night long, the 49ers were out of sync in that game.
09:06And Minnesota won it 22-17.
09:09So, 49ers have four wins right now out of their five, which are, you know, not overly impressive.
09:16The Rams in Australia throw it out.
09:18Dolphins, Cardinals, Broncos.
09:20And then last week, very good.
09:22But they needed all four takeaways to get it done.
09:27And the Brian Flores defense against Kyle Shanahan has been one that Kyle hasn't mastered yet.
09:37That's Brian Flores.
09:39It's not Durante Jones.
09:41But we hope that Durante Jones can pull off some of the same things.
09:46And he was certainly a part of the last two in 2024 and in 2023.
09:55All right.
09:57Washington wins if.
09:59Understanding that, to me, the number one key tonight to pulling off an upset is you have to stay on
10:07the field on offense.
10:09That's the key to the game.
10:11You've got to convert on third downs.
10:14It would be nice to not get into a lot of third downs.
10:17It would be nice if the first and second down offense was so successful that you only had seven or
10:23eight third down attempts in the game.
10:26You don't want 15, 16, 17 third down attempts.
10:30That is high stress.
10:31High stress.
10:33But if you do, you need to convert on third down.
10:37The 49ers are 18th in the league defensively on third down.
10:4418th offense and staying on the field and keeping the 49er offense off it, even based on what I told
10:53you about the Durante Jones, Brian Flores, you know, success.
10:56I still think that the key to this game is you've got to stay on the field.
11:01You have to convert it better than 50 percent on third down.
11:05All right.
11:05We've got to be in the 55, 60, 65 percent range for this game.
11:10It's got to be somewhere in the neighborhood of, you know, four for seven or five for nine or, you
11:18know, seven for 12.
11:19It's got to be in that area.
11:21You cannot punt six times and have a chance to win this game tonight.
11:27Zero chance.
11:29Hanging around with a chance to win this game hinges on the offense, staying on the field.
11:37And they've got to be creative on first and second down.
11:40They've got to get big plays.
11:42Steering clear of third down.
11:44I don't even care what the 49ers are.
11:46I mentioned it just so you had it as a piece of data, but I don't want Washington to be
11:50in 15 third downs tonight.
11:53Okay.
11:54Because even if they hit at greater than 50 percent, let's say they hit eight of 15.
11:59That means when they don't, how many of those fourth downs are you going for?
12:02Who knows?
12:03But you're punting too many times in this game.
12:07That's number one.
12:08I think, like, if I didn't watch this game and I woke up tomorrow morning, the first thing I would
12:15look at is Washington's time of possession and Washington's third down percentage on offense.
12:24Now, offensively, to win the game, to stay on the field, this is going to be interesting because they have
12:34to complete passes from the pocket against this 49er defense to win the game.
12:42So number one is staying on the field offensively.
12:45How do they stay on the field offensively?
12:47Number two is Jaden's going to have to deliver from the pocket tonight because it's hard to run the football
12:55against this team.
12:56No Krosky merit.
12:57He's out.
12:58So we'll see what kind of running back mix we get in this game.
13:03But they are so much more athletic defensively than I thought.
13:09Now, no Dre Greenlaw tonight.
13:10He's out.
13:11Fred Warner, you know about.
13:13This number 53, Duggar, is his name.
13:17Wow.
13:18Does he flash?
13:20There's a safety, number six, Mustafa.
13:23They can run defensively.
13:26This is not going to be the game, in my opinion, going into it.
13:30Of course, he is capable of out-athleting really good athletic teams.
13:36So I wouldn't put it past him to end up having a big game on scrambles and on runs and
13:43hurting him with his legs over and over again.
13:45But the 49ers are super quick, super athletic defensively.
13:51And I just wonder whether or not that is going to be conducive to a Jaden Daniels, you know, Superman
14:01type of performance from a running standpoint.
14:06So he's going to have to deliver from the pocket.
14:10It'd be nice to generate a run game, but the 49ers have been stout against the run.
14:15Fourth per DVOA against the run.
14:18This is the third best defense overall per DVOA.
14:22They are so impressive defensively.
14:25I was not necessarily expecting that.
14:29Now, the Cardinals, they rolled up 30 points in the game.
14:33And, by the way, they did it overcoming penalties, lots of them.
14:37But they also had, like, 30 more offensive snaps in the game.
14:42But Brissette was, you know, threw it 50-plus times for 280 yards.
14:47It's not going to surprise me tonight if Washington wins this game with Jaden having 35 to 40 pass attempts,
14:55if they win the game.
14:56Now, you could see 35 to 40 if they're getting beat and they're down two scores and you've got to
15:02throw the football.
15:02But it would not surprise me if they view throwing the football as their best chance to maintain the football.
15:12I think it's going to be hard to run the football against San Francisco.
15:16And I think it's going to be hard for Jaden to have one of his big rushing performances.
15:22If it happens, it's happening against one of the faster and more athletic and quick, quick reacting defenses in the
15:30league.
15:31No, Nick Bosa, that will be helpful.
15:34Number one, you've got to stay on the field offensively.
15:38Your best defense tonight has to be your offense, keeping the ball away from Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy, Mike Evans,
15:48etc.
15:49Christian McCaffrey, Kittle.
15:51That's number one.
15:52Number two, how do they do it?
15:54Jaden's going to have to deliver, I think, over and over again from the pocket.
15:58Now, I think they should move the pocket.
15:59I think there should be a ton of play action tonight.
16:01I think there should be a ton of him on boots looking for that low, you know, half, whether it's
16:09a running back or another tight end and 13 personnel.
16:13But their base defense is just as fast as their nickel defense.
16:18All right, next up, you've got to get takeaways tonight to win this game.
16:24Like, I'm not saying you need four takeaways.
16:29That would certainly be a great thing.
16:32But you need to win the turnover margin tonight by plus two minimum.
16:36And the best plus two would be two takeaways, no giveaways.
16:42Because you're on the field offensively, you're keeping the ball, you're protecting the ball.
16:47But I don't see a win over this 49er team tonight on the road without a plus two or better
16:58in the turnover margin area.
17:00It's kind of like the Seattle game.
17:01We talked about plus two.
17:03They ended up being plus three.
17:04And they needed all three to win by two, 33 to 31.
17:08Next up, red zone efficiency.
17:11The 49ers, even against this Brian Flores-style defense, which they have struggled with,
17:17and I'm going to be interested to see if they can confuse Purdy.
17:21Like, can they even get Purdy into moments where he's got to throw the football?
17:25You know, that would require stopping the run, something they've done very well.
17:29But if they are moving the football like they can and they are so creative in the red zone,
17:37you have to come up with red zone stops.
17:39And you've got to deliver touchdowns in the red zone.
17:42So a red zone difference of something like, let's call it three of four for your team
17:49and one of four for their team makes a huge difference.
17:55Their special teams are ranked low per DVOA.
18:00They're way back there.
18:02Washington's haven't, because of some of the missed PATs, they haven't been great either.
18:08The last thing that I'm going to mention tonight is, you know, you need one of those nights
18:15where it looks like the other team isn't necessarily taking your team as seriously
18:21as they should, especially off an emotional division win in the toughest environment
18:29in the league last week.
18:30Coming away with that 32-29 win, that's huge for them.
18:345-0, they're coming home.
18:36They're playing a team that's 1-3-1, a team that blew a two-touchdown lead
18:42and then had one of the all-time blunders in the history of football in overtime.
18:47They're probably looking at Washington like, yeah, that's, I mean, you've got to get one
18:54of those 49er performances or opponent performances where they're overlooking you.
19:00This isn't really that big of a challenge from their standpoint.
19:05And what goes hand-in-hand in that is sloppiness leading to penalties,
19:11leading to self-inflicted, you know, mistakes.
19:14Like, this has to be one of those games like the indie game except flipped
19:18where it's 10 on them, 1 on you.
19:20That's not going to happen very often.
19:22But you need big chunk plays being called back because of, you know,
19:27even a phantom holding call or a phantom, you know, a legal shift.
19:32You need those breaks tonight.
19:34You need them to go your way.
19:36That team isn't ready.
19:38That team is sloppy.
19:40They end up punting more because of a couple of penalties.
19:44You get a couple of takeaways, and all of a sudden you're in the fourth quarter,
19:47and it's 24-17 Washington, and they're fighting to get back into the game.
19:52That's how you have to get it done.
19:54But number one with respect to, you know, not the other stuff that could be a factor,
20:00listless San Francisco, sloppy San Francisco, minus turnover margin San Francisco.
20:07You have to stay on the field offensively.
20:10That's how you win the game tonight.
20:12Jaden is going to have to do it.
20:14He's going to have to do it with his arm.
20:16He's going to have to have a 30-44 game for 3-17, two touchdowns, no picks,
20:24no more than a sack or two.
20:27It's that kind of performance.
20:28I don't see them lining it up and grinding it out with the run.
20:33They've got to maintain possession with him delivering from the pocket over and over again.
20:40Can he do it?
20:41Yeah, he can do it.
20:42Are they fast athletically?
20:44Are they going to keep him from getting outside of that pocket?
20:47And if he does get outside, is he going to get run down?
20:50Is he going to get stopped more often than not?
20:52I think so.
20:53I think the thing that you're going to be most impressed with,
20:56if you haven't watched the 49ers, is they are athletic defensively.
21:00And without Bosa and Greenlaw, that helps.
21:03But still, they're quick in spots and with players I did not know much about.
21:09Of course we know Fred Warner.
21:11He's going to the Hall of Fame as a first ballot, as a linebacker.
21:15And he can really move.
21:17But number six, the safety, and the guy Duggar, 53, among a couple of others.
21:24Like, they're quick, fast.
21:26This is not going to be a Jaden Daniels drops back, nobody's open,
21:31and then all of a sudden he's off and he's juking people
21:34and he's outrunning people for a 35-yard run.
21:37I don't think it will be.
21:38If it is, he's, I mean, it's all him.
21:41And he's more athletic and he's faster than they are, which is true, probably.
21:46But I think they can do a good job of ensuring that Jaden Daniels
21:52doesn't kill him by himself.
21:54Oh, last thing I meant to mention.
21:56Last week, obviously, Denard Wilson, the defensive coordinator for the Giants,
22:02had a ton of success bringing zero coverage all-out blitz.
22:06I would imagine Washington has worked on that this week,
22:10that they have answers for that.
22:12Because why wouldn't you do that if you're Washington's opponent?
22:15What they did that for in the fourth quarter and in overtime
22:19was to keep Jaden from killing them with his legs.
22:22You rush one more than you have, when they rush one more than you've got to block,
22:27it makes it harder for the quarterback to escape.
22:30And the ball's got to come out quickly.
22:32One of the most overrated stats, honestly, it's not one of the most overrated,
22:37but one that really needs context is the time to throw number.
22:42We talked about this last week.
22:44Of course, his time to throw is going to be one of the shortest in the league
22:49when the other team calls 11 all-out blitzes, zero coverage blitzes,
22:55in their last 15 defensive snaps.
22:58Of course it is.
22:59No quarterback is going to have much time when they're bringing one more than you can block.
23:04So that number always needs context, and it needs it, you know, tonight.
23:11We'll see if the 49ers decide to match what the Giants did late with effectiveness, for sure.
23:18I guess I should mention, please manage the clock.
23:23Pay attention to it.
23:24Don't burn timeouts.
23:25Let's, let's, oh, real quickly.
23:28So last week, you know, and I actually texted back and forth with Dan,
23:32and I thought it was Dan Steinberg, but it was actually, I think, in Barry's Riluga's column.
23:37Barry put out a stat that got a lot of attention.
23:39I don't know if that was his intention or not, but 28 of 42 games that Dan Quinn's coached here.
23:47In 28 of 42 games, he's called a timeout at some point before the five-minute mark of the first
23:55half
23:55or the five-minute mark of the second half or the five-minute mark in overtime.
24:0028 of 42 games, he's essentially what fans like to refer to as burned a timeout unnecessarily.
24:06Let me just tell you, sometimes those burned timeouts unnecessarily save touchdowns on defense
24:11because you've only got 10 players or you got the wrong defense against the wrong personnel.
24:16Or on offense, you know, you keep yourself from, you know, a delay of game penalty on a third and
24:22two.
24:23Now, you don't want to be in that position where you've got to delay a game penalty approaching
24:27or a defensive bad call, but oftentimes that's why you get these timeouts before five minutes.
24:35But the reason I bring it up is I thought that the stat didn't really have any context to it,
24:43meaning, well, is that bad?
24:45It sounds bad.
24:46Bad in 28 of 42 games, Dan Quinn's teams here in Washington have used a timeout
24:51before the five-minute mark of either half or an overtime.
24:55It sounds bad, but one of the things I thought to myself when I read it was,
24:59man, it seems like every fan base complains about that.
25:02Why are we wasting timeouts?
25:03Why do we only have two left?
25:06Why did we only have one left?
25:08And, you know, I actually texted Dan, and he's like, yeah, he said, you might be right.
25:14I did a very, very, I mean, this is hardly a large enough sample size.
25:21But I went back to last week's games.
25:23Of the 30 teams, because two teams had buys last week, Caroline and Kansas City did,
25:28of the 30 teams that played last week, 20 of them.
25:33So two-thirds of the teams that played last week called a timeout before the five-minute mark
25:40at the end of the first half, end of the second half, or an overtime.
25:45It didn't seem like, it seemed high to me when I read it, but it needed context.
25:50And that isn't enough of a data sample to say, well, he's right there with everybody else.
25:57But just one week of checking, 20 of the 30 teams called a timeout before five minutes
26:03in the first half of the second half.
26:04It seems like it's always been a league-wide problem with a lot of teams and a lot of fan
26:11bases
26:11complain about the early timeout usage.
26:16But somebody could say, produce a two-year study that says, oh, no, no, no, Quinn's near the top of
26:23that.
26:24Anyway, we'll see.
26:25Tonight, I think there's a chance.
26:27I do.
26:29And if Washington somehow pulled off what would be not the upset of the year,
26:33because that probably happened late yesterday with the Cardinals beating the Rams in terms of point spread,
26:39but Washington would be one game back of first place and actually all alone in second place with a win
26:47tonight.
26:48All right, your turn, 301-230-0980, 301-230-0980.
26:56Simple question.
26:57Do you give Washington a chance to win the game outright tonight against the 49ers?
27:04And if so, how do they do it?
27:06And if so, how do they do it?
27:06And if so, how do they do it?