00:00Well, let's look at the implications of that decision with journalist and author Hugh Miles,
00:06who has spent decades reporting on Egypt and the Middle East.
00:09Welcome to DW, Hugh.
00:11So we have Egypt's top security body, this National Security Council,
00:16agreeing to help the Saudis against the Houthis.
00:19We have President Sisi asking Parliament for authorisation,
00:22but lawmakers pushing that vote back to the 26th of October.
00:27What do you read into that?
00:31Well, Egypt is not a democracy.
00:36Egypt is an autocratic military state where Sisi makes the decisions.
00:41So this parliamentary aspect is really just political theatre by Sisi
00:52to try and spread the responsibility for this very momentous decision,
00:58because Egypt has got a bad history in Yemen.
01:01In the 1960s, they went in and they had a huge defeat.
01:05And this is well known and remembered in Egypt.
01:08So this is a very controversial move.
01:11Egyptians are very adverse to getting involved in Yemen.
01:14So he needs to spread the responsibility and make it look like everyone is supporting this decision.
01:23So that's why we're going through the parliamentary route.
01:27OK. And given that history and that 1960s clash you talk about now, people refer to as Egypt's Vietnam.
01:38Given that history, why go back?
01:40What is the motivation for him wanting to join this fight?
01:46So the main motivation is money.
01:50So Egypt is suffering from severe economic problems.
01:54And it is very dependent on Gulf money and Saudi money.
01:59And it has been since the military coup in 2013 or indeed even before that.
02:06And there's a very large loan that the Saudis have of more than $5 billion that is due for repayment
02:14this month, plus interest.
02:17So Egypt really has to do something to please the Saudis, to keep the money flowing in.
02:26So that's the main reason, I think.
02:27But it's not the only reason.
02:29Egypt also does have security issues.
02:32So the Houthis threaten the Suez Canal and they threaten Egypt's tourism and they threaten remittances from Egyptians living in
02:42Saudi Arabia.
02:43And so these are the three pillars of the Egyptian economy.
02:45So Egypt has been suffering security problems.
02:50And of course, they were hit by two drones earlier this year in Damietta.
02:55So there is a security element as well.
03:00So what form is this Egyptian military assistance likely to take?
03:06Well, Sisi hasn't made that clear yet.
03:10But Egypt has one of the largest armed forces in the Middle East.
03:15It has a huge army of hundreds of thousands of people.
03:17It receives over a billion dollars worth of US military aid every year.
03:25But probably the intervention by the Egyptians will be more defensive in nature.
03:34I imagine what will happen is after the parliament has deliberated, Sisi will say that Egypt is only going to
03:40defend Saudi Arabia.
03:42And that means that it will be a naval and air intervention only.
03:46I don't think there's any chance of Egyptian soldiers on the ground going into Yemen.
03:53So this is presumably what it's going to look like.
03:56Of course, it's worth bearing in mind that Egypt has a massive chemical arsenal.
03:59It's one of the world's largest chemical weapon states.
04:02And it has used chemical weapons in the past in Yemen in the 1960s.
04:06It used chlorine and phosgene gas.
04:09But there's no suggestion that Egypt is going to use its gas or its chemical weapons at this point.
04:17We have Egypt joining this fight.
04:19We had Pakistan and Turkey also joining this fight in the last couple of weeks.
04:25Are we looking at this conflict with Iran becoming a regional issue?
04:32Yes, yes, indeed we are.
04:35I mean, it already is a regional issue, right?
04:37This is the axis of resistance.
04:39We have Iran and the Houthis and already many countries in the Gulf and Jordan all involved.
04:45And I mean, it's ironic that for the last three years, many Arabs were calling on Egypt to intervene militarily
04:53against Israel during the fight over when Israel has been committing the genocide in Palestine.
04:59And Egypt refused even to cut off relations with Israel.
05:04But now Egypt is finally being drawn into the war to attack the axis of resistance.
05:11So this is a controversial move, but it's a sign of the war spreading.
05:16Right.
05:16And if we could have a quick think about what the Saudis, what's going through the Saudi minds at this
05:22stage, because as I say, Egypt's now involved, Turkey and Pakistan also.
05:27What does this tell us about Saudi thinking about this rich kingdom's ability to defend itself and also about its
05:36relationship with Washington, with whom it has spent millions in buying defence and arms?
05:44Well, I mean, this is an absolute catastrophe and a sign of huge strategic failure by the Saudis.
05:51They've obviously spent millions and billions over the years buying weapons, and they've totally failed to protect themselves.
05:58And they've made this a number of strategic mistakes that have led to this offensive by the Houthis.
06:04You know, Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen in 2015, and there were many, many opportunities along the way for the Saudis
06:12to avoid getting to this point.
06:14But because of their lack of strategic thinking, they've brought this upon themselves.
06:21And their own military is next to useless, which is ironic, given the vast budget it's got.
06:28But this is to do with internal Saudi politics, because the regime has, it fears its own soldiers, because it
06:39fears that they will try and carry out a coup against it.
06:41And often the Saudi airmen, there's been many cases where the Saudis have discovered or uncovered plots against the Saudi
06:53royal family coming from military officers.
06:55And so the Saudis have deliberately kept their armed forces weak and divided because they're frightened of internal coups.
07:05So all these problems have now come together, and it's a huge problem.
07:10It's a huge disaster.
07:11And what we've seen in the last few days is shocking.
07:14Thank you so much for guiding us through that so clearly.
07:17Journalist Hugh Miles, thank you.
07:20You're welcome.
