What did the Fed meeting mean for mortgage rates?

HousingWire

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the Fed meeting and insights from Kevin Warsh’s Q&A.  Related to this episode:  Fed pauses before midterms as markets bet on December hike https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fed-holds-benchmark-rate/  HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q  More info about HousingWire https://lnk.bio/housingwire  Want more from Sarah? Don’t forget to subscribe!  The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Transcript

00:11Welcome, everyone. Joined today again by my podcast partner, lead analyst Logan Motoshami

00:15to talk about the Fed meeting and the Fed presser and what it all means for mortgage rates.

00:21Super excited about this. We did a live webinar for our members yesterday right after

00:28the presser ended. And then now we're going to take the best parts of that and have it for this

00:32podcast. So thanks to everyone who joined us yesterday. Next time you guys, if you didn't

00:37get to, let's join in. But Logan, welcome to this podcast. You know, it is fascinating that this

00:46entire Fed meeting, you could break it up into a few really, really interesting points. But I think

00:52you almost have to be a market person to kind of understand what Kevin Warsh was talking about.

00:58But at least for us, the whole month of October, the 10 year yield cannot get above 5.35%.

01:05And the risk is a bond escalation. I thought Kevin did a good job of trying to, you know,

01:11calm things down as much as he could. And but the our theme in the last few podcasts, if it

01:19bleeds,

01:20you can kill it. So I don't know, people might have a different take on me than that I have

01:26on

01:26this. But I thought Kevin Warsh actually really loved the fact that the AI actually some of those

01:32things bled a little bit. Now, I say this right now, Oracle just raised their guidance core weave

01:37stock is is is rebounding. And some of the debt concerns are being alleviated to a degree. But I thought

01:46it was really interesting how the Federal Reserve loved to see a little crack in the AI story just

01:53by raising rates one time in the last last few months. We have been talking about this for a

02:01while. OK, so let's start at the top. First of all, no surprise that there was not a rate rate

02:06hike. No

02:06one expected that. So that wasn't a surprise. But there were two things that I was surprised at.

02:11OK, first off, Lisa Cook, Lisa Cook coming in voting as she she was a dissenting vote. She would

02:19have raised rates. She's she's one of the devs on this on this. That was such a troll move by

02:25her.

02:25Good for her, actually. You know, President Trump wants to fire her. I think she still has to go into

02:29the whatever hearings they're going to have on that. Kevin Warsh addressed it by saying we're not going to be

02:36part of that process. He he punted that as far as he could. But Beth Hammock, of course,

02:44Beth Hammock would raise rates every every meeting, you know, a quarter by as a total. She gets some

02:49clarity. But yeah, the two things on the statement, because the statements are a lot shorter now.

02:56Lisa Cook wanted to raise rates a quarter. But also instead of saying solid expansion,

03:01they said strong expansion. Right. And one of our talking points for the last few months is that

03:07when nominal growth is up here, deficit spending and then the mother of all data lines that I've

03:13loved for a very long time. But now the Federal Reserve, once again, Kevin Warsh, jobless claims,

03:18jobless claims was the key to everything. And he he comes out right away and talks about jobless claims,

03:24which I love to see. Jobless claims are low. So let's focus on inflation at this point,

03:30but also in the sense that I think they wanted to punt until December because, hey, listen, by December

03:39oil prices can be lower or we can be in a really, really bad spot with a conflict and oil

03:47prices could

03:47be 140, 170, whatever it is. It's either going to be really good or really bad. And, you know,

03:55a lot of people, why don't they just hike? I think there's some hesitancy to see or they're just

04:02waiting to see what happens because once after the midterms, if you could calm down trade war 2.0

04:08and the conflicts over, those are two really, really key variables that the hawks, the hawks on

04:14the Federal Reserve have been talking about for the last six, seven months. So punting now to me makes

04:20sense if you just want to, quote unquote, take all the insurance rate cuts back from last year.

04:27Okay. So to your point, he was asked several times about why, if you're going to do it in December,

04:32why not do it now? And, you know, he, he was very adept at sidestepping that he kept calling it

04:38the period between now and then will be an information rich environment. Basically like,

04:45and it just makes sense. You don't want to do anything until you see what happens with the

04:49midterms. And then what is the, you know, how that affects the Iran conflict or trade point 2.0.

04:55I mean, this is, I love it. Information rich period. He's absolutely a hundred percent right.

05:01It is. And it is interesting because, you know, they kind of hinted, we don't know exactly how

05:07markets are going to react, but I would assume that the 10 year yield being as volatile as they did

05:12and part of the third mandate technically from 1977 is to calm the long end of the bond market down.

05:17So he did mention that, you know, oil prices and the 10 year yield were in a very, very strong

05:25correlation, but it has changed right now as oil prices are elevated, but the 10 year yield has

05:32rolled over. I would have answered it a different way. Cause I would have said, Logan said, we have

05:37to hold the line at five, three, five, because bond traders are all looking at each other. That to me

05:41is more of a technical thing than making it a big macro thing. I think if the 10 year was

05:48at 460 and

05:48this was going on, we wouldn't see this, but bond traders know that level is really key. So I wouldn't

05:54put too much weight on it. And just remember when WTI oil was at 112 earlier in the year, April

06:007th,

06:01the 10 year yield is at 430. So a lot has changed. But he was really emphasizing that the 10

06:06year yield

06:07has rolled over, rolled over. I mean, okay. In, in any case, a lot of that is technical related and

06:14the AI story bled just a little bit. Right. And, uh, you, one of the points we've talked about is

06:20that for the 10 year yield to be up here, the economy has got to be hot. The labor market's

06:25got

06:25to be solid. The AI story has to keep going on. You can't have these things, uh, uh, fade with

06:32the

06:32conflict, uh, uh, fading as well. All these things have to be in play. And, uh, I thought, I thought

06:38he did his best on trying to like, Hey, listen, let's wait in December and we can get a lot

06:42more

06:43information by then. To your point, when he talked about oil prices, he said he made the, you know,

06:49he said there was a correlation earlier between oil prices and the bond market. And then those things

06:54have now decoupled a little bit, which is, is what we've seen. Right. But it's hard to say how long

07:01that's good, you know, like, is that going to last? And, and I felt like he, you know, he's not

07:05able to answer that. No one is really able to answer that. See, to me, it's that where the 10

07:11year yield was because the term premium was higher. Um, if we start going higher and higher, the market

07:18is starting to price in more rate hikes. And I don't think they're, even though they might not

07:23admit it, I don't think they're comfortable with that. Um, who's, who's not comfortable? The federal

07:29reserve, because the last thing you want to do is what happened with Jerome Powell in 2023.

07:34The growth rate of inflation was falling faster than they had forecasted, but the labor market

07:39was doing better than they forecasted. So he went all in to attack the labor supply and the 10 year

07:45yield shot up on them where a lot of federal reserve members were very confused about that.

07:51I was like, homie, your guy went super hawkish at a key technical level. I'm assuming there's a little

07:57bit more understanding, uh, on key levels out here that you don't want to push the lever unless you

08:03want to push the lever. Right. And, uh, uh, this is one of the reasons I believe, you know, they,

08:09they paused and wait until December, uh, because if the 10 year yield had closed about 5.35% and

08:15oil

08:15prices are where they are, the coffee gets, you can see the 10 year yield go as high as 6

08:19.41%

08:20just on, uh, uh, on technicals right there. But for now the month of October, we only got two more

08:26days left. It's going to be a success that we held that line on yields rolled over. And now we

08:31have a

08:32little bit of time to maybe, maybe end this conflict, uh, or it could get worse and, uh, calm down

08:38trade

08:39war 2.0. There's a lot of talk that, you know, we're, there's going to be some deal with Canada

08:43and

08:43just move forward from this, giving the federal reserve a little bit more clear view on what's

08:48happening. They have a hard job. I mean, let's, let's, let's be honest right now. It's a difficult

08:53for anybody in this environment. He kept talking about geopolitical, um, realities, right? He didn't,

09:00he didn't say the Iran war. He didn't say a conflict. He said geopolitical realities. And I

09:03understand why he said that because it's like, it is driving part of this. The growth rate of

09:08inflation was falling toward 2%. We started a trade war and then we started a war in the Middle East.

09:15A lot of it's us. This is, this is our, there's consequences to actions. The federal reserve

09:20cannot do anything. As some members have said, raising rates is not going to open the Strait

09:24of Hormuz. Now the Strait of Hormuz is getting a lot of oil in, but now we're all talking about,

09:28we're going to go out and attack. And you got people saying that they didn't try to get as much

09:32oil out of there as possible. You know, we're in China's importing more oil. There's, there's these

09:38variables that the federal reserve not do anything about. Right. But again, some of us is us. We chose

09:45this, right. Our own actions. Now the AI boom is something that nobody really controls. Uh, uh,

09:51and it's, uh, it's so much of the part of the discussion on the inflation side where

09:56seven, eight months ago, people were worried about, oh, we're going to have massive unemployment.

10:01There's going to be disinflation, private credits breaking. The U S is on a risk for, and then it just

10:05completely backfired once again. And just, I want to remind everyone for 16 years, if it wasn't for

10:11COVID, we'd still have the longest economic and job expansion history. So the jobless claims data

10:16as Kevin Warsh highlighted to guys, maximum employment, price stability, we need to focus

10:21on price stability, but it's also a little bit difficult on what they can control. But I thought

10:26it was, it was good for them to see. They'd love to see the predator storyline with AI just a

10:32one rate hike and you saw some cracks in there. So, uh, I think they feel like if they really,

10:38really wanted to go after the AI companies, they can do it in a, a real aggressive rate hike. But

10:43for now, they're just going to punt this month and then wait till December. And we will have so many

10:49answers by December that, uh, to me, it was prudent to do this. Earlier, you talked about, you know,

10:56how they, how they changed the, the, um, their wording from strong to stable or stable, stronger,

11:02you know, when you, he, he mentioned several times that the economy was, was running hot,

11:07you know, that, that it was, it was strong. What did he say about the economy, about jobs that made

11:12you go, you know, here, here's something to pay attention to. The second half of 2022, after we gave

11:19our dissertation to the conference board about recession models, the number one key was always that

11:24unless jobless claims four week moving average, which he has used himself is not going to 323,000.

11:31You have to take the R word out. It has been this way since the Peloponnesian war. This is why

11:36I love

11:37that Kevin Warsh keeps on focusing on that. Cause how many times have we seen these are jobless claims

11:42people, right? Powell did the same thing. Jobless claims are low. We have a lot of misinterpretation

11:47on the labor data because we have low job numbers compared to what it used to be, but we're also

11:52population growth to slow down. Uh, so everyone has their break evens. I don't agree with the

11:57federal reserve break evens or even people talking about zero jobs being created in the, in the

12:01unemployment rate can say, I don't buy that, but the jobs data not only rebounded, it had a little

12:08bit of breath. Now they've Warsh said nobody in the federal reserve believes that this is like a

12:14reacceleration and the economy's on fire, but it's good enough for them to focus on the inflation

12:20side. And it is difficult on what they can actually do. Cause the problem is federal reserve impacts

12:26rates, rates impact housing, housing necessarily does not, is not adding any kind of inflation

12:32to the issues here. So they're somewhat limited with the tools they have. But I thought today was

12:38the first time that I could see a smile in the back of Kevin Warsh said, uh, we made the

12:43AI bleed a

12:44little bit. And like Arnold Schwarzenegger said, you could bleed, you can kill it. And, uh, I think

12:50they feel a little bit comfortable about that. Agreed. Okay. Um, one of the things that he

12:56announced, which was pretty big, I think is like next year, we're going to see, there's going to be

13:00one of the meetings where they're not going to, they're not going to take any action. It's just

13:04going to be kind of like a, I can't remember what he called it, but like a, they're just going

13:08to

13:08have a strategy session. They're just going to talk and they're not going to release anything.

13:12They're not going to change any rates. And then in 2028, there'll be two of their meetings that

13:17are like that. What did you make of that? I mean, to me, this is Kevin Warsh's let's try

13:21some new strategies out to, to get a hold on inflation and labor. And I think these are part

13:27of that, you know, uh, to kind of settle to everyone down, let's forget about voting. Let's

13:31focus on, is there any ways to look at data in a new, new, new sense? Um, um, I know

13:37a lot of people

13:37made a big deal about it. I, to me, it's not that considering everything he said,

13:42before about changing the ways the fed has, has operated, uh, uh, that makes sense to

13:48me. And I'm, I, you know, uh, this, I mean, in 2029, this can be maybe three or four times

13:54at a year and have less fed meetings. We'll see. But, uh, uh, uh, the next year will be

14:00one year after that'll be two. Interesting. So he got a direct question about, uh, Hey, how

14:07are those, uh, focus groups going? How are the, you know, what are we hearing from those?

14:11And it was kind of like, you know, I bet they're doing great. I I'm checking in on them, but

14:16you know, nothing concrete coming from those, those focus groups.

14:22Well, there's so much data out there that everyone is using that. I don't know. I don't

14:27know the, the focus groups we'll, we'll, we'll see if it ever becomes anything, but you know,

14:33a lot of people hang their hats on that true flation data that people are saying, Oh my

14:37God, inflation is not really bad. Inflation is not really bad. Let's see the federal reserve

14:41everyone. And all of a sudden now, if you actually see how the commodity pricing works on that

14:45index, you can see that it's eventually going to really hit up. Now nobody talks about it

14:50because it shows inflation picking up. So I wonder if they were the, if Warsh and the

14:55white house wanted to use the true flation data to kind of say inflation wasn't bad. And now

14:59that's completely backfired. It's kind of like Redfin telling everybody it's the highest

15:03amount of sellers ever in history. And all of a sudden they go, Oh, by the way, home price

15:06growth is running at the hottest in 12 months out there. So be careful what you ask for.

15:11Cause eventually the data will come through and you've got to back it up.

15:16I called those, I, I called those focus groups that he calls them task force, just, you know,

15:21the different task force groups, but your point is well taken either way. Okay. Well,

15:26let's talk about how does this specifically mortgage rates in the next, you know, from your

15:31perspective, is everything sort of on hold until the midterms? Like it's only, you know, it's this

15:36time next week. Is everything just on hold until then? We said this, what was that? Like four or five

15:41weeks ago, housing might be on hold for the midterms. Now, of course the 10 year yield escalated to a

15:46key level and it bounced off of that. You know, purchase application data came in. It was the same

15:52thing like our week, uh, weekend tracker, you know, uh, you know, I was, I was waiting to see

15:56a little bounce back on the week to week data. Keep it very simple with housing. The last three

16:02years and 10 months, when mortgage rates get for those 6.64 head towards six housing demand grows

16:07happen every single time when mortgage rates get above 6.64 and head towards seven, especially the

16:14velocity of from 7% to 760 housing noticeably slows down. We go nowhere. This has been the story for

16:20three years and 10 months. Uh, um, but since mortgage spreads are better, you know, we're not

16:26that far from getting under 6.64, but you do need some of these issues to go away. So the

16:3410 year

16:34yield can go a little bit lower, but for now, um, you're still have an economy that's running strong.

16:40You still have the conflict. You still have trade wars. You have all these things with the AI story

16:44and jobless claims are low that these are things are keeping rates elevated as they should be right.

16:49To the federal reserve went from two to three rate cuts to two, three rate hikes to at one point

16:54there were pricing in six rate hikes. So it's, it's an equilibrium on trying to figure out where

16:59we are in the economy and fed policy. And, and, you know, Kevin Walsh might not want to give forward

17:04guidance, but the fed governors and presidents do. So we're, we, we still put very, very big weights

17:11on fed, uh, speeches that go on for the rest of this, uh, uh, um, 10 year with Kevin Walsh.

17:17Okay. So coming back to the midterms, um, obviously in 2024, we had the presidential election

17:22much different than the midterms, but we saw a big move in mortgage rates after that election.

17:29Do you expect that this time next week after the midterms?

17:33Uh, here's the thing about the midterms. I, even if the midterms are over and let's say the Democrats

17:40get a lot of seats, I'm not sure the conflict story is over yet because it does appear. I don't

17:47know if this is president Trump's, uh, tactical psychological warfare. We're on the verge of

17:52attacking, but, uh, um, it would be common with Iran to make a deal after a, uh, a political event,

18:00just like Carter did with Reagan. Uh, president Trump told everybody we'll have it a deal after

18:06this obviously can't go on forever. Uh, Iran's economy is doing much, much worse. Uh, uh, our

18:12economy could take it, but politically it's costing the Republican votes. So at some point

18:17this does end, but I'm, I'm not sure the timing of this because, uh, you can probably maybe see it

18:24an avenue where another attack happens. I don't know what that does here, but the problem is that,

18:29uh, oil prices are, are elevated. Uh, it's not, I think president Trump thought that if they got

18:34more oil out, prices would be lower and they could just go in again. But again, it's that rolling the

18:39dice in the middle East thing, right? You gotta be careful of that. And, and we'll, we'll see what,

18:44what, what happens with that. But if the Democrats get more seats, you know, and people just say they

18:49don't like trade wars, they don't like, uh, conflicts in the middle East, uh, we'll, we'll, we'll cross

18:55that bridge when we get there. But I'm just, again, the month of October to me was the 10 year

19:00yield, not closing about 5.35%. Because imagine if that happened, bonds selling off, there's no AI

19:05weakness. Brent crude is that yearly highs, the potential of yields and rates to go much higher

19:10in a very fast fashion, uh, uh, could have been there. I think the thing that just is shocking to

19:17me, we talked about this early this year. And actually, as soon as he was elected, uh, the day after

19:22the election, we did a podcast and you were like, here are the three things you called them the

19:27Trinity so that what Trump wants to do, here are the three things that he needs in order to get

19:32that

19:32done. And it was what it's a strong dollar. He needs a weaker dollar and he needs a lower energy

19:40prices. He needs lower mortgage rates to do what he wanted to do. And unfortunately at this point right

19:46now, um, you know, energy prices huge. And, and that's why it's so surprising that we did this war,

19:54you know, on a midterm year, but I mean, you've said that you feel like they thought it was going

19:57to be just four to six weeks. I, I, I don't think this is, you know, us trying to help

20:03Israel out.

20:04I mean, think about the hypotheticals on this one. Um, uh, North Korea has nukes, right? They're not

20:10shooting anyone. Uh, this, this to me was a long-term plan that happened well before Trump

20:16actually got the white house. They waited until oil prices were low enough and the 10-year yield

20:22was low enough to go in, right? That was tactical. Uh, very similar to 2018 when they did the trade

20:28war,

20:28they waited till the corporate tax cuts were in. Then the soda trade war happened after that. Um,

20:37so if this is part of a bigger plan, then the midterms in a sense, don't really go into it.

20:42The, the question I would have is whoever created this idea, if you do now, this is my belief. If

20:48you do need a lower dollar, lower energy prices, low mortgage rates, is this something that you

20:53could roll the dice with, you know, in, in a four to six weeks, six week time for it? Because

20:57now

20:58people are saying there's going to be a war premium always on added on to oil prices. So whenever

21:04hypothetical, let's say a deal does get done, well, you're going to need to see oil prices get

21:09down to 82 to 67, somewhere around there to make this a workable or, or the markets are just going

21:16to say, this might be a little bit more elevated because we don't know what's going to happen here.

21:20But, um, uh, to me, it was a very tactical time to do this attack, but again, they always said

21:26four

21:26to six weeks. And obviously we weren't planning on this to be eight months, but if you're going to

21:31have a trade war, you're going to need a lower dollar, you're going to need lower energy prices,

21:35legal mortgage rates, because some of the price inflation that you're going to get on one time

21:39hits, uh, it's going to be, uh, uh, an issue for the public. And we have two year political cycles,

21:46Russia and Iran and China don't, our enemies don't have political cycles like that. So they

21:51don't have to worry, but, uh, but we do, that's why you have to be a little bit, a little

21:56bit clever

21:56on some of these things. So you don't get yourself caught in a situation like this.

22:02You know, the other thing, and we know this, right. Uh, after the midterms, you've got that

22:05period of time, um, until people are sworn in, in January where, I mean, none of those people can

22:11do anything now. Now you could say, well, there's, you know, if, if there's a big change or something

22:16like that, that the people who are currently in office will be like, okay, we're, we're recognizing

22:20that the public wants this or that, but they could just as well say, no, we're not, we're not doing

22:25that. Or we could double down on some of these things. So it's, I do think it's going to be

22:29interesting. The, the period between the midterm results, whatever those are. And then when those

22:34people are sworn in, like, what does that even look like? I mean, no matter what happens with

22:40the midterms, I think Trump still has his tariffs, you know, with that last thing. And he, he loves

22:45tariffs because he can't do bully ball without them. Right. So even if the Democrats sweep and get the

22:51Republican, get the house in the Senate, he'll, he'll still have his tariff things he could do the

22:55last two years. And then we kind of move on from that, but, but very interesting day, right? Very,

23:01very interesting day with the, with the, with, with how Kevin Warsh, I thought was really happy that

23:07one rate hike and you saw kind of the predator AI thing bleed. And, uh, I think they feel a

23:14little

23:14bit more comfortable that that occurred. Uh, I might not agree 100% with them on the 10 year yield

23:20thing. I think that's more technical related, but, uh, um, last I checked the 10 year, it was a 5

23:26.04%.

23:27So we're still very elevated, but we're elevated for the right reasons. The economy is growing

23:33nominal growth of about six, 8%, maybe possibly through Q3. We're also getting jobless claims,

23:38low, the, the labor data, the breath, the break-evens, at least for the fed, how they look

23:42at it is still positive and that, and you still have the AI story. So we'll have to take it

23:48one day at a

23:48time. I mean, that's, that's just what we, what we have to do with what I think, I don't think

23:53a lot

23:53of people thought going into the fed meeting that you could see some kind of disruption into the AI

23:57story. You know, um, you said that last time you thought he did a really good job. I thought he

24:02did

24:02a really good job this way. He's, he's a very disciplined communicator. And I would say that we're

24:07not seeing anything like we did with Powell, where he would, you know, they wouldn't raise rates,

24:11but then his comments in, uh, in the Q and A would, you know, that, um, we, we'd see things

24:18go up just

24:18because of his comments and, and we don't see anything like that with, um, with very, he's very

24:24disciplined. I am a big fan of killing the dots, you know, um, uh, and he even basically said, I'm

24:31never going to do a dot. I'm never going to put a dot. I have no problem with that. And,

24:35you know, uh,

24:36Powell will get himself caught in these little things and he keeps these, he keeps these, uh,

24:43uh, uh, uh, press meetings short and he only asks or answers one question. And I think he's training

24:48the media to just get to your point. And, uh, as he said, he doesn't want to slippery. So that's

24:54where I, that's where I 100% agree with, uh, um, uh, Kevin Warsh. The issue is that if you're

25:01not

25:01going to give forward guidance, but your governors are going to give forward guidance, it becomes,

25:05you know, then the Beth hammocks and the Lori Logan start to run the show out there. So,

25:09uh, he looks much more comfortable now, you know, and that should just improve over time,

25:14over time. And then everyone starts to get used to this new kind of way of communication with the Fed.

25:19Well, at least if you're, you know, if you're in housing, at least these days, when you know,

25:23there's a, um, a Fed meeting and that he's going to have a presser, you don't have to have that

25:27knot in your stomach. Like, is he going to say something and it's going to move markets in the,

25:31in the way that sometimes that happened with Powell?

25:33I mean, that's, that's just going to happen with market traders. Anyway, you know, one thing

25:36will get, um, miss misunderstood, uh, but, uh, you can limit some of the confusion out there by

25:42keeping things short and simple. Well, Logan, we're getting close to the end of our time here.

25:48This is obviously a little bit longer than we usually do for the podcast, but it's, it's fun

25:51to do it in this format. Um, is there anything else that I haven't asked you about that? You're

25:55like, this is what I want to say about what happened at, uh, the Fed meeting today.

26:00Uh, that's all in the Fed meeting, but also, uh, we had some housing reports this week. Number one,

26:06uh, uh, new home sales came in, beat estimates slightly. Just remember, we're still in that

26:1110 year channel back and forth. We don't really go below 570. We don't really go above 730. We've

26:16been here for 10 years. Uh, also I think the Case-Shiller home price index surprised some people

26:21who are still up 2.1%. Just be mindful out here. Case-Shiller data lags ours by a few months,

26:27but by mid June, inventory actually went negative when demand was picking up. It's only now recently

26:33when mortgage rates started to get really above 6.64, ahead above seven, that the demand got weaker.

26:38But the one thing for sure is that even hypothetically, let's say my forecast would

26:43have been correct on negative 0.62%. I was wrong with price forecasting this year. Even if I get the

26:50exact number, because I'd not have mortgage rates getting above 6.75%. You would have probably had home

26:56prices up 1.7 to 3.1% if mortgage rates still stayed in the mix mid sixes and low

27:03sixes. It's something

27:04to think about going out in the future, how that supply and demand equilibrium works. It absolutely is.

27:11Well, thank you so much. We will talk again soon.

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