00:00Teams that have started 0-5 in an NBA season, the numbers are not good as far as making the
00:11postseason.
00:12In fact, the last team to start 0-5 and actually make the playoffs were the 2016 L.A. Lakers.
00:22So it has been over a decade since we've had it.
00:25And then prior to that, it almost never happened here.
00:30So and you would think, all right, there's 82 games in a seat.
00:33Well, history tells us that if you're starting 0-5, there are some giant warts and issues with teams going
00:41on here.
00:42And it usually doesn't correct itself as the season grows longer.
00:47So I found that fascinating.
00:48And yet here we are with a Miami team that is 0-4 facing 0-5 on the road tonight
00:55against Atlanta.
00:57And oh, my goodness, what a unbelievable disappointment that would be if they lose tonight here.
01:05And then somehow again, history tells us not likely going to make the postseason.
01:11That would be a big problem for the Miami Heat.
01:14Yeah, so it's more of a question for you than it really is for me that the fact that you're
01:19betting on the NBA and I'm not.
01:21So if we can dial back to two days ago, because I'm going to pose the same exact question that
01:26I did two days ago to you.
01:27Now, your strategy, in theory, two days ago made a lot of sense, whereas the Mavericks were getting eight and
01:36a half points against the Heat.
01:38The Mavericks took the lead.
01:39You jumped on them at minus two and a half.
01:41And I thought to myself, OK, now that makes a lot more sense.
01:45But I'm guessing at the end of that game, Joe, you had the feeling that I was trying to portray
01:52before the game, which is that certainly could happen and the Heat could win.
01:56But boy, would I feel stupid betting on the Heat if they lose this game because they've literally lost and
02:01gotten killed in all the games that they've played.
02:03So, here we are again.
02:06And now here we are again.
02:07And I would ask you, like, how do you approach this?
02:11Because I would think until the Heat wins, how can you take them?
02:17I mean, I don't know.
02:18Maybe you'll play that game again tonight.
02:20I don't know.
02:21I could not take the Heat because if I bet them tonight plus five and a half and they lost
02:26by 20, I would be blaming myself again.
02:29And I would say, wait a second here.
02:31They were horrible so far.
02:33Now, that may all change.
02:34And maybe it starts tonight.
02:35So, that's what I would ask you.
02:37I literally, now I'm watching the Heat maybe more closely than any other team in the NBA.
02:43I can't bet them until they win, Joe.
02:45I mean, how could I?
02:47How could I do this?
02:48And then the Heat lose by 17 tonight to the Hawks and I go to sleep.
02:52I'll be dreaming, like, what did I do?
02:54Why did I even think this after seeing how they played against Dallas?
02:58Now, so you tell me, I don't know, what does the Hawks matchup look like tonight?
03:03I know the Hawks, you know, made a lot of changes in the offseason.
03:06Certainly for them to be five, five and a half point favorites tonight tells me the odds makers think that
03:10the Hawks are better than the Heat as well.
03:13Yeah, and listen, it was the right strategy against them.
03:17I didn't want to lay, they didn't want to lay seven and a half, eight.
03:22But the fact that we get them at two and a half in the first quarter, which, by the way,
03:27you know, they were able to get the lead back and it was, it worked out perfectly.
03:33Until the fourth quarter, when Miami went nine of 25 from the field, and here's the thing that really kicks
03:41you, which is what is the big anomaly with betting the NBA here, Craig.
03:47They missed 50% of their free throws.
03:50They shot 11 of 25.
03:52They missed 11 of 25 free throws in that game.
03:56All right, so does that mean the bet was wrong?
04:01Absolutely not.
04:02It was the right bet.
04:03It was the wrong outcome.
04:04Well, you got a better line.
04:05Because of variance.
04:06Yeah, no, you got every, look, I mean, listen, if you took the Rams against the Cardinals when they were
04:13laying 13, and after five minutes in the game, you were laying six, yes, it's always the right thing to
04:19do, even though the Rams lost to the Cardinals in that spot.
04:21I get it.
04:22You're getting a much better line.
04:23But it still doesn't make me feel any better and sleep any better, and I would still say to myself
04:28even tonight, like tonight, as an example, if the Heat was down 11 to 1, and you were getting nine,
04:37and you got a better line, Joe, I can't sit here and tell you tonight you're getting better value at
04:41getting nine.
04:42I can't do it.
04:43Until I see the Heat win a game, I don't know how you could do it.
04:47I don't know how anybody could take the Heat at this point.
04:49They've looked so bad.
04:52But look, when you did it at the time, I thought, wow, now that's the way to bet the NBA.
04:56You just wait until things normalize a little bit.
04:59They didn't lose, and we didn't lose that bet because the Heat weren't, for all the right reasons, are the
05:07better team.
05:08We lost it because the Heat didn't do what they normally do.
05:13And variance is going to happen more so in the NBA than anything else, especially when you're talking about a
05:17bucket here or there.
05:18There is, on paper, not a bucket difference between Dallas and Miami.
05:23Miami should be a much better team, has much more talent than Dallas does.
05:27But when you go shoot 50% from the three-throw line, yes, that is a problem.
05:33When you go, you know, ice cold in the fourth quarter, that's a problem.
05:37But to your point, we always say don't catch a falling knife.
05:41You don't want to be the guy catching a falling knife.
05:44I don't want to be the guy catching a falling knife.
05:44Let's see if you hit the best you'd still have, he has 10 to 4 times one of your goals
05:44and don't touchà¸à¸°à¹„ร then.
