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Campaigning for the Melaka state election has officially kicked off following Nomination Day last Saturday. Polling Day will be on the 14th of November, which will see 79 candidates vying for 28 seats. Several of the seats will see Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan contesting directly against each other. This state polls will further test the cooperation between BN and PAS, after a resounding victory in Negeri Sembilan in August. What can the Melaka election tell us about the country’s next political chapter? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Ibrahim Suffian, Programmes Director of Merdeka Center.
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00:10Hello and good evening. I'm Alyssa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:14where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day.
00:19Campaigning for the Melaka state election has officially kicked off following nomination
00:22day last Saturday. Polling day will be on the 14th of November which will see 79 candidates vying
00:30for 28 seats. Now several of those seats will see Barisan National and Pakatan Harapan contesting
00:38directly against each other and the Melaka state election will also further test the cooperation
00:43between Barisan National and PAS after a resounding victory in Negeris Milan last August. So what can
00:50these state elections tell us about the country's next political chapter? Well joining me on the
00:57line now I have Ibrahim Sufyan who's more affectionately known as Ben. He's the programs director of Merdeka
01:03Centre. Ben thank you so much for joining me today. Let's start with the Barisan National
01:07PAS political cooperation because I'm quite curious to see whether this that the I guess attractive
01:14arithmetic of it on paper whether that might translate to actually delivering votes from this alliance.
01:23Is this a party that might be able to persuade their respective voters to vote for the other party that
01:33they have previously regarded as a political opponent for years? Thanks for having me on. Basically the
01:39cooperation between PAS and UMNO now is entering its third state election iteration and judging by the
01:48recent history in the last few months where PAS and UMNO have decided to collaborate it does appear that
01:56supporters of both parties are generally quite open to support the candidates put forth by the respective
02:04parties. I think there might be a little bit of misgivings in terms of how much share in terms of
02:11seats
02:12PAS may get in this Melaka state election contest and also some question marks whether or not UMNO will get
02:20the is deserved share in the SG4 states but in and of itself supporters of both parties are likely going
02:29to
02:30give their votes and therefore there will be an effective vote transfer. We strongly anticipate that
02:36that any upwards of 90 to 95 percent of the supporters of Barisan National as well as PAS will give
02:44their votes to
02:45candidates from both parties. So Ben, is this a genuine electoral realignment?
02:51I think in terms of political contestation it is I would say a very real real real alignment in terms
02:58of
02:58Malaysian politics because for the last six decades PAS and UMNO has never been able to collaborate despite
03:04the fact that they continue to speak about Malay political interests and agenda and so on however whether or
03:12not this is a deep and lasting political cooperation remains to be seen. I think basically what it is
03:18is more of a tactical pact in order to win votes in an election and then leaving behind the more
03:27tougher negotiations on policies and principles after an election and therefore we are seeing this more as a
03:36opportunity for both parties to pull the Malay votes in their favour and try to be on top of the
03:44pile
03:44once elections are done. This is certainly the case for UMNO in Melaka. UMNO is dominant there so therefore
03:51I think they just want to get assurance that they will remain state government.
03:56Okay well speaking of trying to pull the Malay vote in Melaka, can we talk about the
04:01Pakatan Harapan and Bersatu understanding so that the indications of cooperation with the PH and Bersatu despite
04:07the long political history, the Langkah Sheraton history between them, what do you make of this?
04:16Can Bersatu deliver the Malay votes that Pakatan Harapan really desires in this election?
04:23Well in the current Melaka state elections I think the ability of Bersatu to deliver the votes is very
04:29limited in part because Bersatu has you know gone through a series of splits itself and I think the
04:36party somewhat weakened after the split between Tuan Sri Muhyiddin and Datuk Sri Hamzal Zanuddin so the
04:43party has been split and likewise its position with the now uncertain Perikatan Nasional has also
04:51meant that the parties you know standing and also support within the broader Malay community probably
04:58has reduced significantly in the coming in the past compared to the previous years and so I think the
05:04cooperation between Pakatan Harapan and Bersatu at this point in time is also one that is pragmatic
05:09I think driven by Bersatu's need to survive this political cycle and also Pakatan Harapan you know
05:15trying to find ways to boost its Malay support even if it means you know just a handful of percentage
05:21points that can be garnered through Bersatu so it's not easy to overcome the years that has of mistrust that
05:30has developed after the Sheraton move and there's definitely some intense internal resistance within
05:36Pakatan Harapan about accepting Bersatu back into the fold but I think realities I think dictate that
05:42they have to find a way even if it means that working with someone who's the enemy of my enemy
05:48or
05:49something like that well anything can happen in Malaysian politics I want to ask you about
05:54Pakatan Harapan because they really face a difficult electoral calculation here as you mentioned the
06:00the long history working with Bersatu under this kind of tactical pragmatic arrangement but in your
06:07opinion Ben what do you think might constitute a good result for PH in Melaka I'm curious to know whether
06:15you think Anwar is trying to win Melaka or is he trying to uh prevent another electoral setback from
06:26becoming a national narrative about the declining support for Pakatan yeah it's more of the latter rather than
06:34the former I think Pakatan Harapan's approach towards Melaka state elections is primarily defect defensive it's meant to
06:41defend the handful of seats that they currently have you know uh PKR is trying to win a seat uh
06:48Amana is trying to defend the single seat that they have and DAP is going to try and defend the
06:53handful of seats that they have as well so it is not about trying to win the state election all
06:57right
06:57I think they are fairly realistic the conversations I've had with some of the leaders you know do indicate
07:03that they are realistic about the chances there they know that they have uh weaknesses on the ground
07:08uh and I think their best bet is to try and claw back some support and if possible you know
07:15win an
07:16extra seat or two in this particular contest I think where their goal is is to basically retain the
07:22kind of uh support that they currently have because which is primarily within the core urban and semi-urban
07:28strongholds and and avoid any kind of uh image of collapse because not just are they contesting against the
07:35combined uh Parisa national and past uh you know cooperation but they're also trying to mitigate the
07:42emergence of splintering parties like Bersama is there and Bersama is trying to campaign as well and
07:48so they're trying to prevent you know any loss of support so the idea is not to uh broaden the
07:54setbacks
07:54that they have experienced in Johor and the RIS Milan okay well what what do you make of Bersama's chances
08:00what what is Bersama trying to do beyond testing whether there is space for an alternate a new
08:06political alternative I think Bersama's prospects is pretty dim in this election you know if you look
08:12at uh public profile and also following you know and also the kind of issues that they speak about
08:18Bersama is more attuned towards a better educated middle class urban uh type of setting which sadly in
08:25Malaysia you know only perhaps covers about a third or 25 percent of the broader electorate uh
08:31and so it is uh I would say unfortunate that they are going to plow the same field that Pakatan
08:37Harapan
08:38has developed over the years and I think uh there is some potential that they could repeat the
08:45performance in Johor where they split enough votes to allow Barisan national and past to win
08:50a seat or two uh at the expense of Pakatan Harapan right well well can we talk a little bit
08:56about
08:56the the voters I'm just wondering because so much of this political discussion for the Melaka state
09:01elections has been focused on the uh shifting alliances the sea allocations the consolidation of
09:07the Malay voters but there are many voters in Melaka who are based outside of the state and if they
09:14return to vote they may be making calculations um on the cost of living uh development issues governance
09:20issues there could be other factors which may um play to the benefit of uh Bersama can I ask you
09:28whether that is whether the parties are misreading the electorate in Melaka given that it is maybe a
09:35microcosm of the of national demographics well I think first and foremost you know the melaka
09:42demographics and the national demographics differ a little bit uh in part because Melaka is more
09:48urbanized uh and Melaka uh voters tend to be a bit more mixed ethnic as compared to the rest of
09:56the
09:56country but having said that everyone in the country regardless whether you live in Kelantan Johor or
10:01Selangor or even Kedah they are confronted by the same cost of living issues I mean the reality that we
10:07are
10:07facing right now is that while the broader macro economic numbers are very good investment numbers
10:13from abroad are coming in at record highs a lot of it is not felt by ordinary citizens perhaps 75
10:20percent
10:21of the population don't really see these things trickle down in any big way that materially improves
10:28their standard and quality of life the reason is because we have this K-shaped economy so unless you're
10:34working in a GRC multinational you're a software engineer or your financial specialist you're not
10:39going to feel that feel good that results from uh investments that are coming into the Malaysian
10:44economy so a lot of people are still confronted by cost of living issues uh wages that are not keeping
10:51up
10:51as fast as cost and so people are griping about those kinds of issues and for those who are in
10:57the
10:57middle class who felt the biggest squeeze over the last few years a lot of the uh disappointment is
11:03translated into uh unmet expectations particularly in the area of reform and this is i would say that
11:10feel that fertile feel that parties like Bersama and others are trying to reap harvest because they are
11:17attributing the lack of reforms as the reason why uh economic situations that have not improved so a lot of
11:24people believe that corruption and inefficiencies exist and that's why uh people's incomes have not
11:30materially risen over the years and and they are feeding into that narrative the reality is far more
11:35complex than that and it will take decades to fix but i think a lot of times you know politicians
11:40give
11:40short answers to complex questions and people want to believe that and i think this is one of the
11:46challenges that the ph government is confronted with as with many other governments around the world
11:52today like how do you explain to a populace that's seeing you know broader economic growth but uh real
11:58lives have not improved significantly and so there is a a thread of uh i would say concern that people
12:09may
12:09yet punish uh the federal government for unmet expectations and give their votes to uh parties like
12:17uh to the point where uh to the point where they may actually undermine their own personal interest
12:24you know like you may end up voting in someone less competent someone less ethical uh in return for uh
12:32feeling good about um soaking it up to those in power all right ben in the time that we have
12:38left
12:38what are you watching out for the most over the next two weeks of campaigning uh i think there are
12:43three
12:43things that i'm looking at number one is the transferability of the malay votes you know melaka
12:49is a strong barisan national um no stronghold so we want to see how the malay votes there transfer to
12:54the two past candidates that will be put forth in this campaign likewise you know how past voters in other
13:01parts of the state are going to uh transfer their votes there number two we also want to see in
13:07terms of
13:07voting patterns whether or not segments that ordinarily would not vote would show up to vote i think the
13:14key element where melaka elections translates to ge16 uh particularly for the current federal government
13:20coalition is whether or not they can inspire non-committed voters to show up because i think for
13:27the most committed voters it's already decided you know like the number of undecided voters are very small
13:32um and therefore only the uncommitted voters can make a difference in future elections so so therefore
13:40we are looking at voter turn up uh overall sentiment whether or not the economic grievances issues uh
13:46given more traction as compared to identity and religion and finally we want to see the intra inter
13:53coalition uh cooperation or relationship particularly within ph and brasatu going into this election thanks so
14:01much for speaking with us that was ibrahim sufian from merdeka center and we'll take a quick break on
14:07consider this we'll be back with more stay tuned