00:00Mark Shanahan is a research fellow at the University of Surrey.
00:04Mark, welcome back.
00:05Journalists and political wonks like you and me always get excited about midterms,
00:10but the truth is, surely, that midterms are simply a protest vote, aren't they, against the incumbent.
00:16The incumbent always gets a good kicking. Is this any different?
00:20I think the level of protest is what makes this potentially quite different.
00:25And that comes on two sides. The fact that virtually every race that was contestable by the Democrats, they won,
00:34has to send a huge message.
00:37But on the other side, it was the very fact that the president, who was not on the ballot, put
00:43himself front and centre in this election.
00:45He asked voters to act as if he was on the ballot and to make this a referendum on Trump
00:522.0, his second term in the White House.
00:55Well, they well and truly took him at his word and have given him the shellacking of all shellackings.
01:03It works all the way through for the Republicans. It damages them, obviously, hugely in Congress.
01:10They've lost the trifecta now. But it also gives us a big pointer now for 2028 and makes it much
01:19more difficult for a Republican candidate to succeed President Trump in the White House.
01:26The momentum that he brought to the party for the last 10 years, the aura of invincibility that he offered
01:34Republicans, has pretty much dissipated overnight.
01:37America has spoken. What has America said exactly?
01:43It said that it doesn't like Trump policies on the economy. It doesn't like his war of choice with Iran.
01:51It doesn't like his policy on immigration.
01:54All of the policies that came out of Project 2025 and America First, which largely have been emboldening and indeed
02:06enriching a small group of Americans,
02:10have not played well with the wider voting public who are feeling a huge rise in the cost of living,
02:17are not finding that Trump even understands what affordability means and are putting a lot of the blame on his
02:25action in taking the war to Iran, his war of choice.
02:30And the fact that he told Americans in 2024 that he would not get involved in any more entangling wars,
02:40endless wars.
02:41And yet this is exactly what he seems to be doing now.
02:45Whatever has been key Trump policy, the voters have decided just isn't working for them.
02:52So what are then the key implications for U.S. domestic and foreign policy, in particular foreign policy?
03:01Well, the biggest impact of the midterms is obviously domestically.
03:06The power of the purse lies with the legislature, so lies with Congress.
03:11But that has a massive impact internationally as well.
03:15If Trump is looking for legislation to support his tariff agenda, if he's looking for funding to support continuing his
03:24wars,
03:24he now has a strong and increasingly wily opponent in his own legislature.
03:31They're not going to support his efforts to break down relations with long-standing allies or to continue to prosecute
03:45unpopular wars.
03:46What it may find is that there is a greater sense of support for Ukraine and for more money, for
03:53more American armaments to go in to support Zelensky in Ukraine.
03:58More distance with Russia, where Trump has had a close relationship because Congress does not feel that same level of
04:07support.
04:08It will be interesting to see what happens next with Israel and whether Trump's threat to withdraw support from Israel
04:16is carried through.
04:17But we're in for turbulent times internationally.
04:20Trump is still commander in chief.
04:22He still leads on foreign policy.
04:25But what he won't have now is clear, through-the-line backing, all the way through American politics.
04:32Mark, good to see you.
04:33Thanks for that.
04:33Mark Shanahan, the research fellow at the University of Surrey.
