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Former Prime Minister Najib Razak has begun serving the remainder of his SRC sentence under house arrest, prompting DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke to resign as Transport Minister. What are the political consequences for Anwar Ibrahim's Unity Government, and how might voters respond, especially as the Melaka election is just around the corner? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Professor Wong Chin Huat, political scientist at Sunway University, and member of Project Stability and Accountability for Malaysia (Projek SAMA).
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00:18hello and good evening i'm melissa idris welcome to consider this this is the show
00:23where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day i'm here
00:27in
00:28melaka for to cover the state election where we have the final days of the campaign and in these
00:36final days we've had breaking news a breaking news development that may impact voters sentiment
00:41ahead of polling day former prime minister najib razak has begun serving the remainder of his
00:46src sentence under house arrest prompting dap secretary general anthony loke to resign as
00:52transport minister now what are the political consequences for ano ibrahim's unity government
00:58and how might voters respond especially in the melaka election will that change the out final
01:06outcome and joining me on the show to discuss this further i have with me professor wang chinhuat who
01:11is a political scientist at sunroo university he's also a member of project summer which stands for
01:16project stability and accountability for malaysia chinhua thank you so much for joining me um you've
01:22been in melaka for a few days and in this period we've had such a huge breaking news development
01:28maybe might even change the the nature of the game on the ground so let's start with that um let's
01:33talk
01:33about najib razak's house arrest arrangement and what we know about it so far with anthony loke resigning
01:38how significant do you think this is going to be for the malaysian political landscape if we were to
01:44start looking at it from a broader perspective from a broader perspective i think it comes down to
01:49something very fundamental how do we look at our society and our political system so you can you can
01:56sort of sum up those who support najib's going home as basically having two point one that he deserve to
02:03be pardoned should not have been prosecuted whatsoever second is that this is a royal decree and therefore
02:11whatever the palaces say the palaces that should be accepted now um on the other side i think that
02:19you have a more nuanced uh different opinion the first is a questions about what has happened to our
02:26value system how can we actually tolerate people who have stolen about 2.3 billion worth of money
02:36uh convicted by the court in two cases for an initial accumulations of 17 27 years imprisonment right
02:47how can we actually say now that's okay because the person has made contribution to the country before
02:55so as if past contribution can be a license for you to commit some crimes in the future as if
03:02this is
03:03something you top up in your touch and go account right and and that come back to our social value
03:10we thought so much about morality and ethics what happened to that when they come to public life
03:18now second wheel is much more going back to the political system this is a parliamentary democracy
03:26on which we have constitutional monarchy and it means that laws are made by parliament but we do not have
03:34any law on home detention yes so how can the pardon board sort of make it happen and that's a
03:42question we
03:42all have to ask and that come back to the deep political divide we have that uh our political elites
03:51are so
03:51divided they are not defending the system our society is so divided that people actually uh would make their
04:00sense based on their partisan preference the last point has to do what happened last friday that the
04:08agc has to had to uh put pause the process of najib going home and that had to do with
04:17this the error
04:20yeah in in the in the other issue by the high court right and again you have people who say
04:26oh this is
04:27about defying the palace but the fact here is that had the ag did not spot that error we would
04:36actually
04:36have something very ironic najib would have been discharged for his src and then he would go back
04:44to jiu again to serve his 15 years for the one mdb okay all right okay so you've laid out
04:49a few um
04:50different points here and i want to kind of go through each uh one of them so let's start with
04:54the impact on voters and voter sentiment how people are receiving this um if we were to look at the
05:02different
05:02demographics let's take a look at the non-malay vote first um talk to me about how you think this
05:08might go down with non-malay voters at a national level especially those who have historically so
05:15that there's a difference right those who have historically associated themselves with ph yeah
05:19or those who swung to ph because of their anti-corruption agenda because they were against
05:27the one mdb scandal right so it comes down to two things one is that those who point finger and
05:32ph and
05:32say this would not have happened had mahadi been the prime minister now right because anwar is much more
05:43flexible let's put it nicely very kind and and so that would say the blame is actually on ph ph
05:51let it down but there would also people who think that this is because of the palace so we may
05:58not be
05:58very happy but unless you're going to challenge the palace what else can you do and the first type might
06:05actually stay home or go for basama that's the obvious choice but what is interesting is anthony look
06:12resignation because anthony look signal or symbolize that you can be part of the government yet you can still
06:21take a different stand it's a bit like robin cobb resign from tony blair cabinet to protest the iraq war
06:28now that doesn't stop the iraq war but that's a time that when you have to take a stand when
06:33you have to
06:33and i think anthony look did just that if you look at the crowd last night in uh this is
06:42in in melaka
06:44um so this was anthony looks first um campaign chairman after resigning yeah what was the crowd
06:52like what was it it was raining and you have about 400 people many people carrying umbera waiting in
06:58the rain listening to him they cheer every time he say that we are willing to resign and this is
07:04some
07:04and he actually poked at zahid and say you criticize this government so much why are you not resigning
07:11okay so can i just interrogate one of that how much do you think voters blame anwar ibrahim
07:18for the developments and how it has unfolded uh with najib razak's house arrest arrangement how much of
07:25the political fallout will voters attribute to anwar ibrahim specifically i think the generous
07:31sentiment from the ph base is not just on najib najib is just the last straw it's overall that this
07:39resentment that uh anwar has been paneling too much to the right trying to woo those voters who
07:47actually reject him so that the feeling is like you like someone that someone ignore you and try to
07:54pursue other people who doesn't like that someone okay so it's that kind of that kind of bitterness
08:02and and so what happened to najib is the last part but there are also people who could see sort
08:07of like
08:07what choices do we really have and now the question here is that what can actually show
08:15how can make things to be different yeah okay when when you speak to um dap supporters or dap's voter
08:24base
08:24that that you've spoken to jin huat are they expecting a more substantive response
08:31more beyond than anthony look resigning is that is that sufficient to register the dissent against
08:38what's happening actually it's divided you do have dap supporters who think that anthony should stay on
08:45because it's not his fault and so on and that idea i think is supposed to they they appreciate to
08:53have
08:53their preferred party in the government and to do what they have but you must recognize they're also
08:58substantial part of other voters including string voters who felt that they have been taken for a
09:04ride because that i know that you have to make compromises but these are beyond what i can swallow okay
09:10so that kind of feeling i think so when anthony resigned and but leaving the rest of his cabinet
09:19colleagues in the government uh so that the government wouldn't collapse it's the right middle path the
09:26only thing what i my my only uh disagreement is that he shouldn't have waited he should have resigned
09:35right away when things become so clear okay because then he would have a longer time to do what he's
09:41supposed to do go around connect the ground for dap and ph that would change the melaka state election
09:48much more than today talk to me about that what what why why do you think that it should have
09:53been better for him to maybe have resigned earlier or could this be a positive development for dap
10:00especially in melaka galvanizing support for people who may be against the uh idea of najib
10:09serving a house whereas or maybe um disappointed in pakatan harapan's or this unity government's uh
10:16commitment to the anti-corruption agenda i think what you should look at is to ask this question
10:21what would help dap and ph more one more competent minister or one impactful leader okay
10:30this is what actually the difference you talk to many people you can find that um no and pn even
10:38pn
10:38past supporters who say they may have done well but we're not going to work for them because they're
10:43the wrong party right so regardless what you do they're not going to do so another word if you think
10:49on that way uh you can anthony is is a competent minister but having him staying longer would not help
10:57much but for him to resign and go out and show that ph does have leaders who can actually resign
11:06like
11:07rafisi right nick nasmi like uh even benedict now that's what people need at a time of confusion of
11:16frustration that shows decisiveness this is why i think he should have resigned earlier do you think
11:23that there is more pressure on dap to explain to voters why they remain in this unity government working
11:34alongside i think most people would come to the fact that if uh dap would have no other choice because
11:42like simple thing imagine that without bm 36 we would have a muhidin-led government with a past
11:51deputy prime minister and gps and grs would be part of that so if anyone has any illusion thinking that
12:01sabah and sarawak reject a government in which past place and over science influence get wrong
12:09sabah and sarawak has no uh no qualms supporting that government as long as they get get back their
12:17reward in devolved power in more autonomy they don't care right and but for ph support for dap supporters
12:26stopping past in the federal government is a key uh agenda so therefore dap make that choice i think
12:34most people are still most of the ap base are still conscious of that okay so maybe let's look at
12:43the
12:44impact of najib raza uh serving his house house arrest uh at home now on umno so i'm quite curious
12:52to
12:52see how you think how does that what does um not get politically from najib being at home i think
12:58first thing that um no would get more money this is a common perception that once najibs go home there
13:04would be money flooding in in um no machinery and without money um no cannot do well why is that
13:10because that um no has lost that appeal of ideology uh so ideology would have to come from either sacrifice
13:19or anger or track and um no it's not in that position right you can't really excite people
13:27by saying that i'm really nationalist not not after you have looted one mvb uh tabung haji and felda
13:35right but money of course help money make you make your presence felt allow you to do services i mean
13:43that's
13:44exactly how uh why money is so important in american elections ours are not at that level but still
13:51matters so the most important thing for um no is that najib's money whatever their source yeah their
13:58sources they would now flood into this machinery and maybe also to pass that would help them but would
14:04it actually excite um no base i think it only for strictly to hardcore um no supporters because they see
14:14that this is a sign that we are back in power because we can dictate our leaders to be released
14:22regardless of what the court decisions are however i think it would hurt um no in the middle ground
14:30including middle ground malay this is my the basis of my analysis you look at 2018 2022 um knows were
14:41rejected because of election because of corruption right and this thought that oh it because of najib
14:50popularity popularity that um no won malacca and jeho state elections if that is true
14:59why didn't um no win big in 2000 november 2008 three months after najib was jailed right because if you
15:10really feel that najib was wrong the best thing for you to do is to go out and look for
15:15the party so
15:16that the party can use the political out the electoral outcome to say i want to get a pardon right
15:23that's
15:23the easiest thing why couldn't um no get the base out and if you think back about the g15 2022
15:32it was
15:33basically both ph and pn running on anti-corruptions as their program against bn okay so it was actually
15:45a referendum on a referendum on um no's reference on um no's corruption right and um no loss okay so
15:52i i
15:53think the middle ground malays are not supporting najib however this impact would not be felt now
16:03because past and pn has decided to cite um no therefore it take out a major nationalist alternative
16:14so if you still not happy you have a malay nationalist that you cannot trust ph now your
16:20only choice is basatu but basatu is so much weaker so you may not go out to work right but
16:25some of them
16:26may be attracted by basama but i think basama is too young uh to capitalize into this okay i let's
16:35let's
16:35explore that so when we think about actually i would like to ask you what's your gauge of how
16:43influential exactly is najib razza in 2026 2026 now now currently is he still influential is he his money
16:53is influential okay all right so when when we think about that and you wrote recently in an op-ed
16:58about
16:59um the cooperation between um no and pass you your analogy was two brothers going for the same girl
17:06so it's likely that this cooperation might not last yeah yeah talk to us about that about that um
17:14that i guess cooperation now and the longevity of the sustainability of that and how that might change
17:20now that najib is out that would um no be more emboldened with this give leverage to um no um
17:27more so
17:28that would would i'm not be the brother that won the girl no i think najib would have no bearing
17:33on
17:33this dynamic between the two except for his money go back a little bit on the history of unity between
17:40um no and pass the longest was five years from 1973 to 1977 as a consequence of the 1969 ethnic
17:50riot
17:50that's the longest five years five years of working together yeah okay yeah they were uh in the
17:58coalition government then later in the formations of bn but it collapsed after pass was forced out in
18:06kelantan and soon this was followed by amanat hadhi in which um no was labor as infidel by pass right
18:15and
18:16the second episode happened in 2000 after 2000 after um no lost his power in 2018 and it ended soon
18:25in 2020 after both um no and pass were invited in the new government and the vasato because then pass
18:34ditch
18:34effectively ditched um no vasato right so what happened this round from johor onward is that pass
18:43uh having weakened a little bit because of pn's division is split with besato decided to throw its
18:52weight on um no but we had to go back of their basis in nine in in 2012 2022 sorry
19:01out of 165 seats in the
19:06peninsula peninsula pn won 71 exactly the same with ph and muda and bn only 23 which means no matter
19:18what
19:18you talk about um no has made a comeback it is actually an uphill task for it to double but
19:25even
19:25you double is 46 right yeah it's not it and if ph for pm to go down yes it may
19:31not be able to keep 71
19:32but they probably would retain somewhere in other words pn is likely larger than bn unless you have a
19:43bigger collapse okay on on the ph front and so this is what pass is doing including in melaka if
19:51you go by
19:51the 2022 general election pass with a pn would be stronger than barisan in 13 out of the 24
20:03that these two blocks have a majority bn barisan is lead was leading only in 11 now but pn now
20:14give away
20:1523 seats that's right that's right right for them to contest overall why because pass is basically
20:24learning um no into a bigger game enticing um no with state level win so much so that the malay
20:34unity
20:35prepared one umma would be the main team of the elections in coming in this elections or whatever next
20:42election up to g16 right then it would be very difficult for um no to say i do not want
20:49to team
20:49up with you because you will look like um no is uh betraying betraying because you've already had the
20:57lead up to it yeah in put that in perspective first then how important is this melaka state election
21:04if you're looking at the outcome then i would say the conclusion is already known before even people
21:12casting the wood it's either 24 to 4 or 25 to 3 if uh dr on camming is right that
21:18i grow with four
21:19okay right but but think of it this way if you go by this reason there's no reason if if
21:28you're going
21:28to decide whether you're going to vote or not based on the predicted outcome then you should come out to
21:36vote only in four seats right that's a where the four seats at the ap help hope and by the
21:42same logic
21:43in the next general election out of 175 seats in the peninsula you should your words would only matter
21:51in the 43 where ph had a majority despite yeah yeah even if you if you assume that uh pn
22:04and bn would
22:05join force right because otherwise they have they have they would have won by default so my point here
22:11is how do we look at it yeah do we actually think of our voting as purely from a matter
22:17of outcome
22:19in the sense who wins or there's something bigger than that i would argue they're bigger than that
22:24for three reasons talk to me about that i i'm i'm trying to see your point here but really it
22:29it feels
22:30like how do we convince people that this is important okay first of all even if your parties
22:38are winning you should come out to vote because they give it more legitimacy this is actually a lesson
22:44we can look at in hungary serbia in america uh the the authoritarian regime the incumbent would have
22:52to concede defeat because the turnout was high and the victory was landslide okay right so even if you
23:01are on the winning side in your constituency whether a bnpn or a ph you have very reason to come
23:08out to
23:08vote because your words give legitimacy to your party right now second is that if you your constituency
23:15happen to be very close of course you should come out to vote now from malaka just just a just
23:21a
23:21uh a simple fact out of the 28 seats in the last election uh which we only had a 65
23:29percent turn
23:30up last day right out of that 28 seats 13 seats were decided by a winning margin of less than
23:411000 yes yes
23:42that's true very very very very narrow and out of that 13 seats 10 went to bn and three went
23:51to pn
23:52had 1000 voters had come out and voted for the first runner up the outcome would have ph8 pn3 and
24:03bn2
24:04so do not give up so when people everyone think that there's no reason to go out to work remember
24:11that's
24:12the time you go out to work because when your neighbor decide not to go to work your neighbor
24:16is basically say would you i'm happy to outsource my job my power to you you can go out and
24:23work for me
24:23so why don't you cease that chance but the most important part is actually the last one
24:29is there a point for you to go out to work if your preferred party is losing is there a
24:36point for you to
24:37support a losing party it could be more than one right but is there a point i would say yes
24:45why
24:48because if the winning parties carry the seats but also carry a majority of votes there's no reason for
24:56them to consider those who oppose them when they are so marginal this is the outcome if we think about
25:0424
25:044 to 4 bnpn would have a 86 majority in the next state assembly in the seven appointed seat will
25:17be 89
25:20now if they have only about 60 percent of support in terms of words they would have to take things
25:29more
25:29carefully right because you have 40 against you even they do not turn into representation because
25:36of first pass suppose but you're not going to do things right at their face for fear that they're
25:42going to protest whatsoever however if the up the the opposition has only 25 percent of work why should
25:49you get right right you would be emboldened yes because if voter decide not to vote you are deciding
25:56you should be invisible like air like glass so why should you complain that people ignore you you're
26:05telling people ignore me because that i'm invisible absolutely so i guess that you've made the case for
26:12people to come out and cast their ballot yes whichever party you support whatever your the this the stand
26:19you state you should come to wood if you think that najib deserve to go home come out and wood
26:25for umno
26:26because umno thinks that najib deserve to be free wood for pass because past thing that donating for
26:34najib would get you pahala right but you oppose this then your choice would be ph basatu
26:41or bersama that's right well on that note i want to say thank you so much for being here with
26:46me on
26:46the show and for helping us think through the melaka actions i appreciate your time jinhua that's all
26:52the time we have for you on this episode of consider this i'm melissa idris signing off for the evening
26:57here in melaka thank you so much for watching and good night
27:11here in melaka
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