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This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 11/11/2026. Big changes on the way during the next few days and beyond as colder weather arrives before being replaced by wetter, Atlantic-driven weather. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
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– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. Two sides to late autumn during the next 10
00:05days.
00:05Next week, wetter, windier and in many places, milder. But before we get there, it is going to turn colder
00:12by day
00:12and more especially by night with widespread frosts expected over the coming nights.
00:18And for all four nations, likely the lowest temperatures of the autumn so far.
00:23Now, you might have heard that there's a connection between the upcoming colder weather
00:28and what's going on in the stratosphere surrounding the North Pole.
00:32And it is the case that this week in particular, we are seeing interesting things happening to the stratospheric polar
00:38vortex.
00:39Some disruptions taking place and we're monitoring that carefully.
00:43But it's not necessarily correct to link what's currently happening in the stratosphere above the North Pole
00:50with the cold weather over the next few days, as Honor explained in more detail in this week's Deep Dive.
00:56That can be found on the YouTube channel if you missed it.
00:59And it's not necessarily correct to link the two because although what we call sudden stratospheric warming
01:06can be linked to colder weather in the UK, there's normally a lag effect.
01:11And that lag effect is around two to six weeks.
01:14So that takes it more likely towards the end of November, start of December beyond the scope of this 10
01:21-day trend.
01:22What we're expecting over the next 10 days is more typical late autumn variability in the weather.
01:28And it is highly variable.
01:29At the moment, we've got two branches of the jet stream.
01:32It splits in two coming over the Atlantic.
01:34One branch coming in over Iceland, pushing some colder weather into the north of Scotland.
01:39But another branch sending some stormy weather into Iberia,
01:42but also encouraging an area of low pressure to send some cloud and outbreaks of rain into the south.
01:47In between, a lot of stagnant air.
01:49We've had poor visibility, low cloud, mist and fog over the last few days.
01:54But one system is expected to win out over the next couple of days.
01:59And into Thursday, it's the cold air coming from the north that pushes everything else out of the way.
02:05This cold front moves south, eventually clearing the cloud and the rain from southern counties,
02:12although it could still be a damp start to the day in the far south and south-west.
02:15Milder here, widely frosty elsewhere.
02:18And as those northerly winds arrive, it's certainly going to feel colder.
02:23The northerly winds are going to be strongest across Shetland and Orkney.
02:26Wind gusts in excess of 50 miles an hour as we start Thursday.
02:31And that wind, cold, coming from the Arctic.
02:34It's moving over very warm seas because it's still only November.
02:37So, creating a lot of instability, frequent showers, thunderstorms, lightning especially for Shetland.
02:45Small hail accumulating in places and further hill snow for northern Scotland.
02:50A few centimetres above a couple of hundred metres.
02:53So, really lively conditions in the north of Scotland could cause some impacts in places.
02:58And we'll also see some showers, even some hail showers into the east coast.
03:02One or two lighter showers for northern Ireland.
03:05But elsewhere, actually, that northerly, as is typical, brings crystal clear skies, sparkling sunshine,
03:12but a chill, that wind chill, really quite noticeable,
03:18especially where you're exposed to the wind in the north and the east.
03:21Feels like temperature in Lerwick, more like zero Celsius.
03:25And we keep the northerly wind on Thursday night.
03:28In fact, Thursday night likely to be the most widely frosty night for much of the UK under clear skies
03:34with that cold air in place.
03:37Temperatures falling away to minus five, minus six, minus seven Celsius in shelter spots,
03:41even in towns and cities, close to, if not a little below, freezing.
03:45So, widespread frost to start off Friday.
03:47Some showers in the far north and across parts of Northern Ireland could keep it a little less frosty here,
03:53although still chilly as we begin things on Friday.
03:56But actually, away from these showery regions in the far north and northwest,
04:00it's a sunny day once again, six to eight Celsius, perhaps less of a wind chill,
04:04because the Arctic airflow gets cut off progressively, although we keep cold air in situ.
04:11Now, Friday night again brings widely a frosty spread across much of the UK,
04:18especially towards the south, central and eastern parts.
04:21Towards the northwest, a bit more of a showery theme going on, especially northern Scotland.
04:27Some snow showers over the hills, but rain at lower levels,
04:30and some showers pushing into northern England, perhaps coastal parts of West Wales.
04:34In and where we've got clear skies, again, several degrees below freezing.
04:38Some parts of southern England, perhaps a colder start on Saturday compared with Friday morning.
04:43And you can see that cold air in place as we start the weekend.
04:46But then it gets really quite messy for the rest of the weekend because, again, we've got the split in
04:51the jet stream.
04:52One branch going to the north, one branch going to the south.
04:54But in between this area of low pressure, what happens is this low pressure moves slowly eastwards with its showery
05:02weather fronts.
05:03We're also seeing another low push, colder end to the north of Scotland later Saturday into Sunday, marked by this
05:12cold front.
05:12That cold front will reactivate on Saturday night and also join forces with this other front that's moving into the
05:19west.
05:20And whilst the front in the west will bring something a little milder, we've got cold air in the far
05:25north of Scotland.
05:25And where the rain overrides the cold air at the surface, we're likely to see some significant snow developing Saturday
05:32night into the start of Sunday, especially over the hills of northern Scotland.
05:37Elsewhere, we keep mostly fine weather.
05:39So another frosty start for the Midlands, the east and southeast of England.
05:43Clear skies here.
05:44It stays sunny and crisp for much of the day, although some patchy cloud arrives from the south as the
05:49winds change direction.
05:51Widely, 6 to 8 Celsius, perhaps a little milder in the far south and southwest.
05:54But here's where it gets quite messy.
05:57Initially, we've got outbreaks of rain, increasingly so, for the north and central part of Scotland.
06:02Some showery rain again for northern parts of England, north Wales, just about close enough to give something for the
06:09north of Northern Ireland.
06:11But it's on Saturday night that these northerlies across northern Scotland mix with the rain and increasingly we'll see the
06:18snow level lower.
06:20Might even see a little bit of snow at lower levels for northern Scotland, but the most significant snow will
06:25be over hills, 2 centimetres or so above 200 metres.
06:28And over higher routes, a few centimetres, but over the tops of the hills, 5 to 10 centimetres of snow.
06:34So, something more wintry compared with what we've experienced through the autumn so far.
06:40The far north, Shetland, Orkney, showers and a brisk northerly wind.
06:45Further south, another frosty one to wake up to on Sunday, especially for the Midlands, the east and southeast of
06:50England.
06:50In the west, something a little milder.
06:53Cloud and patchy rain or showers move in and that cloud spreads across most parts.
06:58So, a real mix for much of the UK on Sunday afternoon, milder in the far south and southwest, still
07:05cold with the snow gradually petering out across northern Scotland.
07:09Rain at lower levels and that rain extending into Northern Ireland as well.
07:13But mostly dry for England and Wales apart from the thickening cloud and a few light showers.
07:18And that mess continues into Sunday night.
07:22Eventually, these areas of rain and showers circulate around the UK and move along for the start of Monday.
07:31It takes a while through Monday to turn drier.
07:34Monday itself, you can see the contrast in temperatures across the UK.
07:38It's mild to the south, cold to the north.
07:40But a much more significant contrast in temperatures is visible when you zoom out and see this plume of warmth
07:47coming up from the subtropics.
07:48And there's much colder air coming in around Greenland through the Davis Strait.
07:53In fact, if I move the map across to the other side of the Atlantic, this contrast here really quite
07:59notable and helping to fire up very active jet stream,
08:03which also appears as a straight line extending across the whole of the Atlantic and south shifted as well.
08:10So, no surprise, it develops a beast of a low pressure covering most of the Atlantic from the UK to
08:18Canada.
08:18And it's this area of low pressure, given its size and this huge and powerful jet stream, that will dominate
08:25the UK's weather from later Monday through to the end of next week.
08:31So, the rest of the 10-day trend period.
08:33Now, different models are handling this area of low pressure in different ways.
08:37Just to illustrate that, here are a few runs of the European model, which is run 51 times.
08:43This is the control run.
08:44Very similar placement for that low pressure.
08:47Very similar size.
08:48A couple of separate centres of the low.
08:50Here's another run from the European model that has low pressure closer to the UK for Monday.
08:55So, an earlier onset of the wind and rain.
08:58And here's another version.
09:00Here's another run from the same model.
09:03It's got a few separate centres from the same low.
09:08But whatever model you look at, they've all got low pressure dominating the weather from later Monday through to the
09:16rest of the week.
09:17So, just to pick this run from the European model, a very large area of low pressure out in the
09:22Atlantic, slowly approaching the UK, picking up the winds, increasing smells of rain arriving from the west.
09:30And this is going through Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
09:33The same low is dominating the weather across the UK with generally a westerly or southwesterly airflow.
09:40So, it's no surprise that the wettest weather will be over Western Hills.
09:44And this shows a similar thing.
09:47It doesn't just take all those model runs from the European model.
09:49It looks at other models as well and summarises the flavour of weather for each day for the next couple
09:56of weeks.
09:57Now, these dark blues indicate weather patterns that are dominated by low pressure with westerly winds.
10:02And that's really the dominant theme through next week.
10:05Although, there's another one there that indicates low tracking south.
10:09So, southward tracking low pressure systems.
10:13Either way, it's low pressure throughout the rest of the 10-day trend from later Monday.
10:19And just to give you another idea, here are the three most likely weather patterns for next Wednesday when that
10:25low pressure is truly dominant across the UK.
10:27Most likely weather pattern there, low pressure to the north of Scotland.
10:31The blue areas show where rain will be more than normal for the time of year.
10:36And it's really enhanced across western and southern parts of the UK.
10:40And it's pretty much the same for these other two, second and third most likely weather patterns.
10:44They just have the low in a slightly different place.
10:47So, different ideas about the shape, the track and the depth of the low pressure.
10:51But all the models are agreeing that it's low pressure.
10:55It's wet and it's windy throughout next week.
10:58Here's another snapshot for Saturday.
11:01A few days later, low pressure again dominating.
11:04Blues on the map indicating above average rainfall.
11:08Which isn't necessarily a bad thing because we do need the rain across southern parts of the UK in particular.
11:14We don't want a huge amount in a short period because that can still cause issues.
11:18So, we'll be monitoring it for that.
11:19But, of course, it will be useful rain for filling up reservoirs.
11:22It will also be windy.
11:24That wind could cause some impacts.
11:25But, again, it depends on the shape and the track of these areas of low pressure.
11:28We'll have a better idea when we get to next week.
11:31As well as the increasing wind and rain, temperatures are likely to increase.
11:35This gives you an idea from, again, the European model.
11:39And it takes 51 model runs, plots them all on this.
11:42And you can see all those model runs are in agreement that in London, for example, temperatures will reach in
11:49Nadia Saturday morning.
11:51And then a general increase in those temperatures, although a lot of uncertainty about the exact values day and night
11:57because that depends on the tracks and the comings and goings of various areas of low pressure, weather fronts, spells
12:04of rain and so on.
12:06But general upward trend.
12:08That's London.
12:10Manchester has more or less the same theme, reaching a Nadia later this week and then generally upward trend in
12:18temperatures, less frosty and so on.
12:20But for Inverness, well, this is a bit different.
12:24It actually shows the possibility from quite a lot of model runs of colder weather next week.
12:31And that does seem to be a theme for the far north of Scotland.
12:35With the low pressure systems being a bit more southward tracking, it's possible that northern Scotland could still hold on
12:42to some of that cold air from the Arctic.
12:45And if that happens, those spells of rain that are coming in from the Atlantic could still end up being
12:50snow over parts of northern Scotland, especially higher parts.
12:54That's something we'll also be watching closely as we go into next week.
12:58It's not necessarily going to be mild everywhere.
13:01Now, just to go back onto this, I mentioned the sudden stratospheric warming at the start of this forecast and
13:08the fact that there's a lag effect.
13:10There are some indications towards the end of November that we'll get different weather patterns indicated by these different shades
13:19here.
13:19High pressure, high pressure, more likely close to the UK, although a lot of uncertainty here.
13:25But there is just a hint that after next week, for the very end of November, high pressure may start
13:34to become more likely near the UK.
13:37Whether that's connected to the upcoming, well, not the upcoming, the ongoing disruptions, I should say, in the polar stratosphere.
13:49Well, we'll keep you updated on all of that.
13:51But yeah, interesting to follow.
13:53Anyway, whatever happens.
13:55And we'll keep you updated on the YouTube channel.
13:59Can't get my words out.
14:01Send us your weather pics.
14:02This is the email.
14:03Bye-bye.