00:00As you watch this video, nearly 200 countries are gathered in Antalya, Türkiye, for COP31.
00:07the United Nations climate summit, and the country that has polluted the most in history
00:12He didn't send his government. That says a lot about the meeting.
00:16This COP has something unprecedented: two presidencies. Türkiye is hosting the event and holding the formal presidency.
00:23And Australia is leading the negotiations. It's an arrangement that arose from a diplomatic row.
00:30because it's the host country. And there's an uncomfortable fact: both countries continue to expand coal mining.
00:35and gas at home. So the credibility of those leading the conversation is at stake.
00:41The beginning is in question. Now, the geopolitical reading. The United States,
00:47The largest historical issuer is absent. Most of the G7 leaders also didn't attend.
00:53to the summit. And who fills this void? China, which has been protesting trade barriers.
01:00to its clean technologies. Europe, which has already warned that there is no political will to
01:06Put more money in. And the global south, which is demanding that the promise to triple funding be fulfilled.
01:12To adapt to climate change, have a figure, a timetable, irresponsible.
01:18The agenda was even adopted late because developed and developing countries clashed.
01:25Finance and trade. This isn't just a discussion about the climate; it's a fight over money.
01:32because of trade and because of who will have the power of the 21st century energy transition.
01:39But there's something almost no one is talking about, and that's international law. This is the first COP,
01:45after the UN General Assembly endorsed the Court's advisory opinion
01:52International Court of Justice on climate change. And the Court has already been clear. Confronting climate change.
01:58Climate action is not a political option, it is a legal obligation. States must act accordingly.
02:06Diligence in life, strict and with the greatest possible ambition. Continue subsidizing or expanding
02:13The use of fossil fuels may constitute an internationally illegal act. And to withdraw
02:20The Paris Agreement does not release any State from its obligations under international law.
02:28So what's the problem? Almost everything that will come out of Antalya will be voluntary. A goal
02:35global electrification, non-binding roadmaps, goodwill commitments and softlocks.
02:44And the system continues to operate by consensus, which means that it cannot be blocked by just one state.
02:52Everything, if not everything. That is the great tension of our time. The law has already stated that it is time.
02:58to do it, but the political landscape hasn't yet decided whether to do it or not. But for Colombia, this isn't
03:05is
03:06distant. In April, Santa Marta brought together 57 countries to discuss how to move beyond fossil fuels
03:13fossils outside the COP blockade. And those results are now arriving in Antalya. It's proof of
03:20Which coalitions of willing countries can shift the balance of power when multilateralism is at stake?
03:27Stagnant. My conclusion is this. COP 31 will not be judged by speeches or photos of the
03:35leaders. It will be measured whether international law can finally enter the negotiating room.
03:43I am Fabián Cárdenas, professor of International Law at the Pontifical University
03:49Javer.
