- 1 hour ago
Gary Meyers hosts the Friday Fast 15 with Don Day, Carlos Legaspy, and Robert Genetski. Weather, markets, and the economy, with discussion of the winter weather outlook, market volatility, and the economy.
Recorded November 13, 2026. The Meyers Report.
Recorded November 13, 2026. The Meyers Report.
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00:06morning welcome to the myers report friday fast 15 it is friday the 13th of november
00:152026 friday the 13th generally is known for very bad luck let's hope this is a good day
00:22opening up on the weather is our guy up in the clouds our star meteorologist don day
00:29reporting in from paris france is carlos lagaspi on the markets carlos is in paris for
00:37rugby and dr bob janetsky on the economy coming in from michigan hey don hey don i'm looking around
00:47and it looks to me like the geese aren't leaving yet isn't it winter by now yeah you would think
00:53that the geese would have flown south for the winter but in a lot of parts of the country they
00:58just
00:58haven't had any reason to do that yet as you can see here from this photo um there's no ice
01:04on the
01:04ponds uh the geese are not heading south whatsoever they're just hanging around but this is a phenomenon
01:10that's developed over the decades to where a lot of canadian geese just decide to park it they'll find
01:17a place to where life is good and don't find any reason to head south for the winter uh if
01:23there's
01:23food uh if there's shelter if there's a lack of predators all three of those things you're not
01:29going to get in a in a city environment so a lot of times you'll have what's called resident geese
01:35that stay all year and of course that means 12 months of them leaving their calling card does that
01:41mean we're talking about heat islands and garbage that they can feed on in the cities yeah it's not so
01:47it is certainly the heat islands because they're they're able to be in a more sheltered environment
01:52where the weather elements aren't going to be as extreme uh a lot of times you have people feeding
01:57them it's not so much garbage but they're getting fed and fed pretty well um and also you know if
02:03if
02:03they're not being hunted by foxes and coyotes all the time that allows their population to grow in those
02:08metropolitan areas okay how does it look for weather in the meantime for the for the u.s well for
02:16all
02:16around the u.s what are we looking at well we're seeing some changes this weekend is going to see
02:22some winter weather so say maybe some of those geese will be headed south we're going to see the
02:27biggest shot of cold air this fall season so far for the upper midwest the great lakes and this cold
02:33is going to go all the way down to florida we can even see freezing temperatures uh as far south
02:37as
02:38tennessee northern areas of alabama um temperatures a good 15 20 degrees below normal all the way into
02:44or orlando and new england is going to have a chance for some snow and some some wind and some
02:50snow in
02:50the northern great lakes this is the first salvo of cold really that we have seen so far and we're
02:56going to go into the second half of november into early december with a much more active weather
03:01pattern across the lower 48 so are we going to have a cold winter or a mild winter
03:08ends on where you are we are likely going to see a colder than average winter for a good part
03:14of the
03:14southern united states and parts of the central u.s you know when it comes to like how cold is
03:21it going
03:22to be this winter the best way to do that is is to compare to the 30 year average and
03:27while the northern
03:28part of the u.s from washington state to montana to minnesota to maine they may have above average
03:36temperatures this winter while the central and southern parts of the united states have below
03:41average it's kind of sounds counterintuitive but that's how this winter is likely going to pan out
03:46one thing we are seeing with our long range modeling is that the winter keeps looking a little bit colder
03:52than it did just a month or two ago so while el nino winters tend to be more mild this
03:57one is showing
03:58signs of having the opportunity for some cold fits carlos stocks are still up roughly two to three
04:06percent for the week despite some tough inflation reports and the 10-year treasury is over five
04:14percent what's holding the market what's holding the market up and does that hold if the fed raises
04:22rates in december it's been a really volatile week uh we got hit by many different directions i'm not
04:30actually surprised how well the market's been holding up given everything it got thrown against
04:36it uh you had uh the whole nvidia debacle um we had the uh the the treasury going about the
04:4710-year
04:47treasury going about five percent guess of the hot inflation numbers both ppi and cpi and in the
04:54re-creeping up of the um of the price of oil so um depending in which moment you take the
05:01snapshot
05:02you could say it's been a really good week or bad week because it's been all over the place um
05:08i think
05:09today we're seeing a sell-off uh uh after you know a rebound that we had yesterday and i think
05:17nobody wants
05:18to go along over the weekend because there's still a lot of uncertainty uh whether the nvidia
05:26spy scandal will have deeper ramifications for the company and hence the whole ai space that was
05:35already under pressure since the um midterm elections so it's uh it's going to be a volatile um
05:42a couple weeks at the very minimum perhaps until the end of the year well you know speaking of
05:50nvidia's jensen huang's resignation yesterday their stock fell by 14 by 14 percent or more
05:58uh but closed down only about four percent at the end of the day uh what's the recovery confidence
06:07uh for that stock and how is this going to impact the rest of the marketplace most of the buying
06:15we
06:16saw was on the retail side it was uh very heavy volume on the what side the retail side so
06:24there
06:24were small lots so so retail investors were the ones who came in to buy um intraday was looked like
06:32a
06:32really good trade because it you know recovered significantly portion of the losses we're back
06:38down but it's holding though around the 159 160 level and um you know i cannot opine on the specific
06:47stocks that i can talk about the overall sector it's the question here is is this a something that
06:56could uh bring down the whole sector or is it just a rotation out of nvidia to some of their
07:02competitors um that could um take market share so yesterday it was a big rotation day almost the
07:10amount of money that went out of nvidia what got reinvested in amd and in broadcom um but it's uh
07:19that's something to be determined there's still uh there's still no clarity um until we get a little
07:26bit more on the national security side do you think that the questions about the election
07:32are going to have any impact or has that already worked its way through it was just weighing on
07:38the sector it but it's there's been some more softening of the rhetoric some of the newly elected
07:45governors uh that they're you know anything that's already already been permitted it's not going to be
07:51you know uh stopped and things like that so i think it's more probably a negotiation of a new
07:58regulatory framework going forward more than a complete halt on thursday small caps uh fell
08:06about 1.7 percent energy seemed to be the only sector uh that rose uh as oil prices went up
08:13a little
08:14uh and gold dropped what does this tell you
08:19it's uh there's a lot of confusion you would say that interest rates go up
08:24and because there's a fear of inflation that's normally good for gold but it wasn't right and it
08:30wasn't either for for bitcoin which is the what's considered digital gold i think um there's so many
08:38cross currents that um it don't try to assign logic something that's not logical right now it's it's
08:48there's so many different views and so all those different views get weighted out and you start
08:53depending on a majority right now it's a trader's paradise because there's a lot of um like we say
08:59chaos and confusion is good for uh traders so the traders are not so the traders are taking advantage of
09:06the chaos do you have any ideas are they are they positioning themselves for higher rates
09:11and the middle east risk well that's that that's the thing you've seen all those things you know
09:17you're seeing right now that there could be a resolution you know of the conflict and and the
09:24the persian gulf and and so you're seeing you know bearish positions into oil um and uh at the same
09:34time
09:34you know some other ones are betting that interest rates might make you keep going up to at least five
09:39and a half um the probabilities of an interest rate hike in december have gone up and then even some
09:50out of 50 basis point hike in december next month so it's um it is one nobody knows that's the
09:58thing is
09:58there's not there's not really any clarity you need to digest all the things that that have come come
10:05to start to uh making informed decisions as opposed to what just guesses okay so i won't ask you to
10:13make a forecast because i gather it would be nothing much more than a guess well but what i could
10:19probably guarantee is it's going to be volatile volatile that's for sure so that's okay bob janetsky
10:27payrolls jumped about 165 000 in october three times the recent averages yet jobless claims rose by
10:36200 000 this week uh what's happening what did they rise rise by 200 000 or were they 200 000
10:44because
10:44that's been rose to a level of 200 i apologize yeah but that's been right okay from 190 or from
10:52one
10:53whatever it was they these are weekly variations there's nothing significant in the employment
10:58numbers other than they consistently are telling us that there are more jobs being created and one of
11:06the things that i look at very closely for one of the few times we've had a movement upward in
11:11full-time
11:12jobs so these are not just all part-time jobs although that number has been reached before
11:18full-time jobs it's mostly been flat to down and the latest uh week which is not september i mean
11:28not
11:28october but september um we had a jump in full-time jobs that's very encouraging if that were followed in
11:36october which is where you're talking about all the strength in the numbers that came out that would be
11:43another very positive indication that jobs are coming back very rapidly and it all reinforces a lot
11:50of the other data on the economy that show the economy is moving ahead pretty rapidly at this point
11:57do you see the possibility of a half point rate hike come to the december fed meeting you know we're
12:03all
12:04as carlos said we're all guessing uh on this my guess is that it's going to be a quarter point
12:08uh hike
12:10and uh let me go back to some of the reasons for that because i really think we have to
12:15back up
12:15whenever we look at the uh fed funds target the target is an artificial rate that the fed places it
12:24has nothing to do with whether the fed is increasing or decreasing the money supply or doing anything
12:31significant other than uh acting as if it were a russian um when when the russians were controlled
12:38completely in their economy that's what the fed is doing it's setting an arbitrary rate totally
12:45unconnected to the actual short-term interest rate and it's forcing because of its power as a fed
12:52forcing financial markets to adjust to that artificial rate so that's the first thing we have to look at
12:59now the question is what is the underlying rate right now and my guess is the underlying rate should be
13:07going up a little bit perhaps if anything and the reason for that is because the fed for the past
13:15two
13:15months has not purchased any securities at all and even prior to that they had slowed down their
13:22purchases now why is that significant well when the fed purchased securities it puts more money in the
13:28system when it doesn't purchase securities especially if the economy is strong it can put upward pressure
13:35on interest rates that's like a tightening and so the fed in at least the last two months if not
13:41we go back even a few more months from that when they were slowing down their purchases
13:46to very very insignificant amounts the fed has been tightening policy in terms of the things that they
13:55control now that probably and we can only guess where that race would be would probably nudge that
14:03actual short-term interest rates up what the fed should do but they're not going to is simply say
14:10we're not going to set the target we're going to let the market determine where the short-term rates
14:15would be and my guess is if they did that right now the short-term rates would be up
14:20probably a quarter of a basis point monetary policy is very complicated because the fed only controls the
14:27supply of money the demand for money is influenced by banks and consumers and the demand for money has
14:34been rising at about a five six percent annual rate so we've had money coming into the economy it's just
14:41in the past five months or so six months it's not coming in rapidly from the fed supplying more
14:48the fed supply of money is basically leveled out for all practical purposes but we have had a
14:54tightening from the fed but the demand for money is still rising and so my view is we're having a
15:00pretty good expansion in the money supply not overly expansive not causing more future inflation
15:08inflation is pretty much tied to shortages that are related to the war but not to what the fed policy
15:14has
15:15been so again but why do i think they'll go up a quarter of a point um because the fed
15:22has no idea
15:22where that short-term rate is they have no clue where it is but the market seems to think if
15:30they
15:30raise it they are tightening monetary policy they're not tightening monetary policy just arbitrarily
15:36causing every every financial market to adjust to a specific new rate because of the power that they
15:42have so it's not terribly significant what they do but why do i think they're going to go a quarter
15:48of a
15:48point well the financial markets are currently anticipating 90 chance that they'll go and the
15:56fed never likes to disappoint the financial markets they simply take their cue from what's happening
16:02because then the markets get really confused so that's why it's going to be a quarter of a point
16:07and at least that would be my expectation for what's going to happen how should consumers judge
16:14where inflation really stands today and what should they expect uh over the next few months well the
16:20inflation rate today i think is is pretty much uh where the cpi says it's going to be it's three
16:27and a half
16:28percent uh if you look at the um core rate on a year-over-year basis and it's four and
16:36a half percent if you
16:37look at the total inflation with energy what i would suggest as consumers is that's very bad
16:43because it's actually occurred it's real we can't do anything about it right now because of supply
16:49shortages but it's not there because the federal reserve has been irresponsible as they were
16:55years ago and just pouring new money into the system and raising prices it's there because of
17:01supply reasons not much you can do about that but the fed's going to try and change the rate anyway
17:07for
17:07the reasons that i've suggested before but the real thing consumers should do if they're really
17:13interested in where inflation is going is to look at the implied rate based on the difference between
17:20the 10-year treasury and the inflation indexed 10-year treasury and that difference today is 2.2 percent
17:30that is the financial markets long term are factoring in an inflation rate of 2.2 percent
17:36they are not concerned with what consumers are concerned with these high prices um i'm not saying
17:43consumers shouldn't be concerned with that it's disturbing that you have high prices but it's not
17:49something that's built into the system and it's not something that's going to continue into the future
17:54because monetary policy has been reasonably responsible so the financial markets are saying
18:02hey long term it looks like this economy is 2.2 percent inflation that's where i believe we're going to
18:08be
18:08next year assuming the war is finally or the wars both of them are finally winding down or completely
18:16finished so if if the wars are wound down and done with ukraine russia and obviously iran
18:24back to 2.2 inflation okay mortgage rates are currently above 7 percent and housing sales are
18:32their lowest since when 2010 terrible terrible uh do you see any relief there uh on a monthly basis yes
18:42because the rates are down maybe 30 basis points from where they were before and that has a big
18:48impact on the housing market but how much of an impact i mean we're going to go from
18:54a depressed level of 29 on the housing market uh the home builders index probably up to a 30 35
19:02level
19:03which is depression level uh conditions in the home builder market so housing no i think housing is
19:11still going to be in bad shape until we get some real break in the long-term interest rates it
19:17seems to me
19:18that if you are in the market to buying a house this is actually a very good time because you
19:24can cut
19:24a good price uh on negotiating a home purchase plus well first off a seven percent rate you and i
19:32and carlos remember that's a good rate compared we remember when they were 11 12 15 percent
19:38maybe a good rate but you have to think that there are other things happening other than interest rates
19:43and that is uh building costs are going up tremendously a lot of that is due to regulations a lot
19:49of it's due
19:49to shortages of skilled labor supplies so that's also squeezing and what we've seen in housing prices
19:57is instead of going down most of them have just leveled off somewhat so you don't yet see you don't
20:04see
20:05any relief drop in the prices you don't see any significant increase in home sales coming up in the next
20:10uh three to six months not in the next three months you know we're all hoping for an end to
20:16the war and
20:16things turning around very rapidly but barring that no i think it's going to be here for okay
20:22our question of the week guys how quickly will the democrats try to impeach president trump when the
20:30new congress is seated in january or they will or will they try to avoid the chaos and the other
20:37question of course is can they help themselves carlos i think i think they're going to let it go
20:43you know like it's they already tried and those complete waste of time belly flop i don't think
20:49they'll do a third time well i think they're going to be right at it's going to be one of
20:54the first
20:54things they do so probably before february 1st dr bob i think they'll do it i they don't care about
21:01chaos they don't care about anything but um rewarding their base and that's going to come up
21:08and it's going to be a badge of courage to vote to uh impeach trump and they will they have
21:15the votes
21:16to do it so they will do it they've never made any they've never thought logically about this the
21:22senate is not going to approve it so it's it's basically just making noise and not accomplishing
21:28anything but the democrats have been very good at doing that in the past and it doesn't seem to
21:34matter to them whether they accomplish anything or not they tend to get irrational and i think
21:39they're going to do the same thing this time around that was makes a market a buyer and a seller
21:45say that again this is what makes a market a buyer and a seller so yes i tend to agree
21:52with bob
21:53i think that the democrats won't be able to help themselves and by impeaching trump uh they will
22:00have they will initiate another two years of at least legislative chaos which i think will backfire
22:08on them uh in the 2028 elections if they were smart they try and get along and if they got
22:15along and had
22:16some modicum of cooperation i think they'd be much more successful than i think that they will be
22:21in 2028 on that note i want to say thank you for everybody be well stay safe have a good
22:30weekend
22:31and carlos who are you going to root for with the rugby match may the best team win
22:39but a prediction a prediction a prediction well south africa is a strong favorite
22:45but uh but france is playing at home so it's i think it's going to be a great match i
22:52don't it's uh
22:53we'll see hey enjoy posted yeah we'll do that have a good weekend stay safe have a good time and
23:00god bless america
23:17you
23:18you
23:19you
23:20you
23:21you
23:23you
23:23you