00:00The climate crisis is no longer a distant threat.
00:03It is here, shaping our present and defining our future.
00:08Rising seas, extreme heat, floods, wildfires, and devastating storms disrupt lives across the globe.
00:16Families are being displaced.
00:18Farmers are losing crops.
00:20Children are growing up in a world of uncertainty.
00:24Those least responsible are often the hardest hit.
00:28But this is not just a story of crisis.
00:32It's a story of possibility.
00:34Because we are on the cusp of the clean energy era.
00:39The renewables revolution.
00:42Leaders, now is the time to seize the biggest economic opportunity of our lifetime.
00:49With national climate fans, we have the blueprints for successful economies and societies.
00:55Creating jobs, expanding investments, and building opportunities for all.
01:02Saving lives and safeguarding public health.
01:07Building energy independence and security.
01:11Connecting communities and upholding indigenous rights.
01:16Limiting increasingly dangerous and costly impacts of climate change.
01:20Protecting nature and biodiversity.
01:24Which protects us all.
01:26This is our moment of opportunity.
01:29Let's seize it.
01:36Mr. Secretary-General, excellencies, friends, colleagues, good afternoon.
01:41For those of you who don't know me, my name is Melissa Fleming.
01:44I am the UN Undersecretary General for Global Communications.
01:47And it is my honor to moderate the special event on climate.
01:52Convened by His Excellency, Mr. Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.
01:58And His Excellency, Mr. Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva.
02:02President of Brazil.
02:04Who will be with us anytime now.
02:07The Secretary-General and President Lula have agreed to work together to mobilize increased action on climate ahead of COP30.
02:15Which Brazil will host in November.
02:18Against the backdrop of a worsening climate crisis.
02:23And challenging geopolitics.
02:24We are here today to discuss the steps we can collectively take to accelerate the just energy transition.
02:31To strengthen climate justice for developing countries.
02:34And to protect our natural world.
02:38We have all the solutions we need to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.
02:43What we need today is action.
02:46Excellencies, we will start with a scientific assessment of the current efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
02:54And this will be presented by Professor Johan Rockström.
03:00Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
03:04And Professor Catherine Hayhoe from Texas Tech University.
03:08Professors, you have the floor.
03:16Good afternoon.
03:17Your Excellencies, co-citizens on planet Earth.
03:20It's now 10 years since the world in Paris entered the legally binding agreement to avoid dangerous climate change.
03:27Since then, science has become overwhelmingly clear.
03:30Allowing long-term global warming to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius constitutes danger.
03:37And yet, greenhouse gas emissions continue rising.
03:40And in 2024, annual global temperature change was pushed beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time on our
03:47watch.
03:48This is a deep concern.
03:51An even deeper concern is that warming appears to be accelerating, outpacing emissions.
03:58The long-term average warming is now between 1.3 and 1.5, 1.4 degrees.
04:03We are on a path to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius' multi-decadal boundary within the next 5, 10 years.
04:11A temperature we've not experienced over the past 100,000 years.
04:16Here we must admit failure.
04:19Failure to protect peoples and nations from unmanageable impacts of human-induced climate change.
04:26But we don't have to keep failing.
04:29Returning to below 1.5 degrees by the end of this century must remain the obligation for all international efforts
04:36to limit dangerous climate change.
04:38Extreme heats, fire, droughts, water scarcity, flooding, and land degradation reinforced by us are already impacting the lives of billions
04:47of people around the world.
04:49Beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, these dangers will become increasingly unmanageable.
04:54Every tenth of a degree of avoided warming matters, saves lives and livelihoods.
05:00This is not a time for resignation.
05:03Beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, there's also a real risk of crossing tipping points.
05:08The most recent science concludes that we're therefore dangerously close to triggering fundamental and irreversible change.
05:18If we make the right choices going forward, though, there is still an overshoot pathway that can bring temperatures back
05:25below 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
05:28Such a narrow escape remains possible, but it requires deep and rapid reduction of all greenhouse gases involving a near
05:39-complete transition starting now away from fossil fuels.
05:44We also know that cutting emissions won't be enough.
05:47We need to massively scale up carbon dioxide removal.
05:50For every 0.1 degrees Celsius of planetary cooling, 200 billion tons are needed to be removed from the atmosphere.
05:59But even if this succeeds, we fail, unless we safeguard the world's most powerful carbon sink and planetary cooling system,
06:08a healthy planet.
06:10If we don't return to the safe operating space of the nine planetary boundaries that regulates Earth's stability, including biodiversity,
06:18pollutants, land, nutrients, and the ocean,
06:20a safe climate future, a safe climate future is out of reach, irrespective of our mitigation efforts.
06:27Don't be fooled.
06:29We are currently following a path that will take us to 3 degrees Celsius in just 75 years, shorter than
06:36the existence of this very institution.
06:39An existential threat we have not experienced in the last 3 million years.
06:44And there's no guarantee that efforts to cool the planet will succeed.
06:48So my message today, science is clear.
06:52We have a planetary crisis on our watch.
06:55And we do have scalable solutions for phasing out fossil fuels, efficient resource use, and transformation to healthy and sustainable
07:03food.
07:04Pathways that makes us all winners.
07:06The window to a manageable climate future is still open, but just.
07:12Failure is not inevitable.
07:14It is a choice.
07:18And with that, I pass on to my...
07:24And with that, I pass on to my dear colleague, Professor Catherine Hayhoe.
07:31As Dr. Rockstrom indicated, we are conducting an unprecedented and perilous experiment with Earth, our only home.
07:40The science is clear.
07:42Right now, according to natural factors, the planet should be getting slowly cooler.
07:47Instead, it is warming faster and faster.
07:50And we are responsible for all of that warming.
07:55The science is also clear that every additional bit of warming matters.
08:01For every tenth of a degree, we can put a number on how much worse it gets.
08:07Billions of dollars in flood, wildfire, and storm damage.
08:11Millions of avoidable deaths from extreme heat, air pollution, and more.
08:17Now, steady increases in heat waves and crop losses are bad enough.
08:23But the further we go past 1.5 degrees C, the greater the risk of the dangerous tipping points Dr.
08:31Rockstrom warned us about.
08:33So the obvious question is, if the science is this clear, and it is, and it has been for decades,
08:41then why haven't we fixed this already?
08:44Despite decades of deliberate disinformation that continues to be amplified today, the majority of people know the four basics.
08:56Most people know climate change is real.
09:00It is human-caused.
09:02It is serious.
09:04And the experts agree.
09:06These four things make us worried.
09:10And yet, even though the majority of people in almost every country around the world, including this one, are already
09:17worried about climate change, awareness does not necessarily lead to action.
09:24Too often, we think if we just explain the facts more clearly, that will be enough.
09:30But it isn't, because if we don't know what to do, we'll do nothing.
09:36To act, we need to know two more things.
09:38We need to know that we are not alone.
09:43Others care.
09:44And we need to know that there is hope.
09:47Hope is not wishful thinking.
09:50Hope is knowing that if we act, it will make a difference.
09:54And that is exactly what the science says.
09:58Every action matters.
10:00When it comes to climate solutions, there's no one action that will fix it all.
10:05But there are so many that together give us more than enough to meet our climate goals.
10:11Transitioning from the dirty fossil fuels of the past to the clean energy of the future.
10:17Protecting and restoring ecosystems that absorb carbon and shelter us from flood and heat.
10:22Transforming food systems to reduce waste and emissions.
10:27Investing in resilience so the most vulnerable communities benefit most.
10:33We cannot prevent this catastrophe alone.
10:37But together we can, by setting stronger targets, by moving faster timelines, and by making deeper commitments.
10:46Why?
10:47Because the science tells us that every bit of warming matters.
10:50Every year matters.
10:51Every choice matters.
10:52Not to the planet.
10:54The planet will endure.
10:56It matters to us.
10:59When I had a child, I made the biggest wager anyone can place on the future.
11:05And you may have done that too.
11:07The scariest part is that the outcome of that bet doesn't depend on me alone.
11:12It depends on all of us.
11:13On our willingness to choose courage over fear.
11:18Action over delay.
11:20And most of all, hope over despair.
11:23I believe it's a bet we can still win.
11:26And that's why every day I practice hope.
11:29Not as a feeling, but as a discipline.
11:32One that's essential to the fight ahead.
11:34I won't give up on a better future.
11:36And I hope you won't either.
11:38Because what's at stake is nothing less than everything and everyone we love.
11:54Thank you, Professor Rockstrom and Professor Hayhoe.
11:58And every day we will all practice hope as well.
12:01It's now my honor to invite the Secretary General to the podium to deliver his remarks.
12:20Excellencies, dear friends, as we have just heard, it is still possible to limit global temperature
12:29rise to 1.5 degrees by century's end.
12:34We know what permanently breaching that limit would mean for people and planet.
12:40The science compels climate action, so does the economics.
12:48Clean energy is powering jobs, growth and sustainable development.
12:53Generating the fastest and cheapest electricity.
12:58Insulating economies from volatile fossil fuel markets.
13:03Providing energy security and sovereignty.
13:06And helping to deliver clean and affordable energy for all.
13:12Despite vast fossil fuel subsidies distorting markets.
13:17Clean energy received double the investment of fossil fuels last year.
13:24The bottom line.
13:26Clean is competitive.
13:28And climate action is imperative.
13:32Excellencies.
13:33The Paris Agreement has made a difference.
13:37In the last 10 years, projected global temperature rise has dropped from 4 degrees Celsius to less than 3 if
13:46current NDCs are fully implemented.
13:51Now, we need new plans for 2035 that go much further and much faster.
13:58Delivering dramatic emissions cuts aligned with 1.5 degrees.
14:04Covering all emissions and sectors.
14:08And accelerating a just energy transition globally.
14:13Your new plans can take us a significant step forward.
14:19A UN report will calculate their impact for global emissions.
14:24If they fall short, we must create the conditions for a decade of acceleration.
14:32We know it can be done.
14:35China met its 2030 wind and solar targets six years ahead of schedule.
14:41India reached 50% electricity capacity from non-fossil fuels five years early.
14:49We are in the dawn of a new energy era.
14:54We must seize this moment of opportunity.
14:58COP30 in Brazil must conclude with a credible global response plan to get us on track.
15:06Five areas are crucial.
15:09First, energy.
15:10Fossil fuels still dominate.
15:12We must supercharge the clean energy transition, investing in grids and storage to unlock the full potential of renewables,
15:22lowering capital costs for developing countries, and redirecting fossil fuel subsidies to a just transition.
15:31Second, methane.
15:34A potent global heating gas.
15:37Drastic cuts this decade are essential, and most can be achieved quickly and cheaply.
15:45The International Energy Agency estimates fossil fuel operations could cut 40% of methane emissions today with no net costs.
15:56Third, forests.
15:58We must end the destruction of nature's greatest carbon sinks.
16:03This could deliver a fifth of needed emissions reductions by 2030.
16:09Fourth, heavy industry.
16:12We have seen important advances in technologies to cut emissions from steel and cement and heavy transport.
16:19They must be deployed urgently.
16:22They must be deployed urgently.
16:25Fifth, climate justice.
16:28Developing countries that did least to cause the crisis are suffering the most.
16:37Climate disasters are inflicting damages that exceed the GDP of some small islands.
16:44Droughts and floods are taking lives, fueling anger and inflaming conflicts.
16:51All while finance gaps prevent investments in adaptation and resilience.
16:58We need urgent action to unlock funds for developing countries to seize clean energy benefits and protect lives and economies.
17:09And that requires reforming the international financial architecture to strengthen developing countries' participation.
17:16We need effective debt relief and scaled-up solutions like debt swaps and disaster pause clauses.
17:26We need a major increase in the lending capacity of multilateral development banks and significant contributions to the loss and
17:34damage fund, including from innovative sources.
17:38And a major boost in adaptation finance, with developing countries meeting their pledge to double funding this year.
17:48COP30 must show a credible pass to mobilizing the 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars annually in climate finance by
17:562035, as agreed at COP29 in Baku.
18:01Identifying sources, existing and new, outlining policies, instruments and actions to make finance accessible, affordable and at scale.
18:15And establishing credible accountability measures to verify progress.
18:21Excellencies, the science demands action, the law commands it, the economics compel it, and people are calling for it.
18:34I look forward to hearing how you will respond and the U.N. stands ready to help you to deliver.
18:42Thank you very much.
18:43Thank you very much.
