00:00 Well, busy day of severe weather here over the next couple of days.
00:04 We're tracking this upper low now pushing into the southern plains and I think we're
00:09 having two opportunities for severe weather as we go through this afternoon.
00:13 Let me show you the water vapor loop here.
00:16 You can clearly see here's our upper level low spinning just north and east of Denver.
00:22 That's going to come south and east.
00:24 Now on the southern side of this, we've already had a complex of rain and thunderstorms move
00:28 through Missouri.
00:29 You can see the white that you see on the water vapor loop.
00:32 And again, with the water vapor loop, you're looking at the amount of moisture in the middle
00:35 and upper part of the atmosphere where you see the green and the white.
00:39 That's where you have the moisture.
00:40 So that's one complex moving through.
00:42 A lot of energy on the southern side.
00:45 And I am a little worried that right along the Arkansas-Missouri state line, there could
00:51 be some spotty but severe thunderstorms this afternoon, mostly wind and hail producers.
00:57 Then, then, and here's the key, later, this upper low is going to come southeast and then
01:04 thunderstorms are really going to get going very late today in the area exited by the
01:10 rain.
01:11 So let me show you how this is going to form here.
01:14 As we go through the afternoon, again, there's going to be, I think, some spotty severe thunderstorms
01:19 right across that Missouri-Arkansas border.
01:22 You can see them.
01:23 There they go.
01:24 Not a big deal.
01:25 But anyway, watch this line.
01:27 And this is going to be a nasty line that gets going.
01:29 I think it's mostly going to be south of I-70.
01:32 So south of St. Louis, south of Kansas City, south of Columbia.
01:36 Watch that line just explode as we go through the evening hours.
01:42 This looks like a squall line and within this squall line, you'll see bowing and I think
01:46 what you're going to end up seeing is damaging wind gusts.
01:48 In addition to that, I think this line's going to have tornadoes.
01:52 I think there's at least going to be several tornadoes on the ground, if not a dozen.
01:56 I don't think we're looking at two dozen or three dozen, but I think there's going to
02:00 be somewhere around 10, 11, 12 tornadoes in this area over the next 24 hours.
02:05 And then watch what this line does.
02:07 Not only in Arkansas, but as this line comes into western Tennessee, look at that line
02:12 as we head toward the overnight hours.
02:14 And then it may weaken a little bit after about 2, 3 o'clock in the morning.
02:18 So you know when you take a look at our severe weather area here, we have a moderate risk
02:25 and you can make an argument, and our forecasting team is looking at this, whether there's a
02:30 high risk somewhere in here.
02:32 Anywhere across south central parts of Missouri and northeastern Arkansas.
02:38 All forms of severe weather are possible.
02:40 Again, I don't think this is a huge tornado outbreak, but I bet you there could be somewhere
02:44 between 7 to about 14 tornadoes in this area as we go through tonight.
02:49 I'm concerned about that.
02:51 Damaging winds, flash flooding is also going to be a big story with this.
02:56 Now, tomorrow everything moves northeast.
02:58 I don't think you're going to get the same amount of severe weather action tomorrow as
03:03 we're getting today, but nonetheless I think there can be clusters of thunderstorms in
03:06 the morning.
03:07 They move to the east, and then you're going to watch thunderstorms try to refire in this
03:12 area as we go through tomorrow afternoon as our energy goes across Virginia and then moves
03:18 off to Delmarva Peninsula as we go through the later part of the day.
03:21 I'm not sure the modeling is handling what these thunderstorms are going to look like
03:25 tomorrow, but here's our zone all the way up in the parts of Virginia, and we're zoning
03:30 in on that area near Raleigh, near Charlotte, and near the upstate of South Carolina toward
03:35 the Atlanta area.
03:36 The biggest problem with these thunderstorms would be the damaging winds.
03:39 We have an AccuWeather local storm max of 80 mph and also the flash flooding.
03:44 The frontal boundary then settles south, and then we're looking at mostly spotty severe
03:50 weather chances as we head toward Friday, but it is going to be a nasty night along
03:56 that Missouri and Arkansas state line.
03:59 Stay tuned to AccuWeather.com.
04:00 Also check us out on the AccuWeather network.
04:02 Bill Waddell will be reporting from southern Missouri tonight.
