- 3 years ago
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00:00 Hello and welcome to BQ Prime. A very good afternoon to all the viewers. I am Heeral
00:04 Dhadia. Clearly, if you go to see, the markets have been trading pretty much in a narrow
00:09 range. And now, we have inched below the 19,400 mark already. The advance-declined ratio,
00:15 which was actually favoring the bulls at the start of the season, sorry, in terms of start
00:20 of the trade, has now become absolutely neutral. Bank Nifty is also absolutely interesting.
00:25 We are just hovering around those 44,000 levels. Those slipped into the negative for a fraction
00:30 of a second from being in the positive. But what direction are the markets going to take
00:35 from here on? Because the ride seems to be slightly wobbly as well. Joining us on the
00:40 show to discuss more on this is Sachit Anand, the Tech Advise President, Technical and Derivative
00:45 Research at Trade Bulls Security. Sachit, good afternoon and welcome to the show.
00:50 Good afternoon, Heeral, and thank you for having me on your show.
00:56 Always a pleasure to speak to you. Sachit, overall, if you go to see, Nifty has been
01:00 struggling at 19,400 already with heavy call and put writing that we have been witnessing.
01:07 What's the sense that you pick up? Because where are you seeing the support on the downside?
01:12 And what's the kind of broad range we should be watching out for?
01:15 So, Heeral, I think when we look at Nifty, it has been struggling to reconquer that level
01:24 of around 19,400. We have already seen it hovering near that particular level. So, the
01:31 five-day expansion moving average is also placed there. So, if you look at both the
01:34 indices, Nifty Bank and Nifty as well, they are still not confidently given or displayed
01:41 up closing above these averages. So, once we have a confirmation of the same property,
01:46 we may see Nifty again, assuming it's uptrend. When we look at supports, I think 19,300,
01:53 the cluster support looks very confident. Even yesterday, we saw a reconfirmation of
01:59 that particular support and the Nifty did witness a very strong rebound. But somehow,
02:04 today's session has been more on sideways and it has still not been a very, we have
02:12 not really seen a very significant price action developing here. When it comes to the Nifty
02:18 outlook, I think the bias for the Nifty still remains neutral to positive. We may see one
02:25 more leg on the downside towards 19,360 or so. But I think that decline could be utilized
02:30 to create long positions. We are seeing this 19,300 support to hold on and probably we
02:37 may see Nifty scaling towards 19,480, 500 kind of a zone. So, the immediate resistance
02:44 is placed at 19,500 and post a breakout of this particular level, we may see Nifty getting
02:51 or unlocking the directional momentum play. So, when it comes to Nifty, the strategy still
02:57 remains buy on declines. But when we look at Nifty Bank, clearly, this particular index
03:03 has been lacking strength. We have seen multiple attempts near that 44,000 mark, but it has
03:11 not really registered a close above the same. So, probably today could be a crucial day
03:15 for Nifty Bank. But even if it starts sustaining above in this particular cluster, we still
03:23 see a very strong headroom at 44,500. So, until and unless Nifty Bank doesn't sustain
03:29 and surpass that particular level, there could not be a major revival in the trend. So, when
03:34 it comes to Nifty Bank, I think it is still in that neutral to negative zone and any upside
03:40 on the towards 44,500 could be capped. So, we are not really optimistic when it comes
03:46 to banking stocks. We still feel that this is one particular sector or area which will
03:53 keep on adding pressure on Nifty as well. But eventually, from a market perspective,
03:59 we are expecting that Nifty could see a breakout above 19,500. And that's why we are optimistic
04:05 on the market, keeping the support base at 19,300. We are advising our clients to build
04:12 fresh long positions even at this juncture. Right, Sachit. So, that's the overall setup.
04:17 Now, if you talk about sectorally as well, clearly, you are seeing pressure which is
04:23 being built specifically with regards to IT as well as pharma in today's session. But
04:28 apart from that, the other indices have been trading in the positive. Where are your bets
04:32 from a sectoral perspective? So, I think Nifty IT and Nifty Pharma both
04:40 are displaying some sideways consolidation in the price range itself. We are not really
04:48 seeing a very concrete trend for the last few trading sessions. But broadly speaking,
04:55 I think both the sectors are well positioned. After a brief pause, we may see a resumption
05:01 of the up move. When it comes to Nifty IT, there is a cluster of resistance right up
05:08 to 31,800. But eventually, we see this particular movement shaping up in the next few weeks
05:18 or so. I think the bias even for Nifty IT still remains a bit on the cautious side.
05:25 But the broad range and the broad trend for Nifty IT still remains positive. We are expecting
05:30 a move towards 31,800 in probably a couple of weeks' time. And on the lower side, I think
05:37 the 30,500 support base is a limited level wherein one can place a stop loss.
05:45 When it comes to Nifty IT, we are seeing some unwinding pressure here. But if you look at
05:50 the major structure, the major structure still remains healthy. It has been maintaining its
05:55 tail above the 5-day exponential mean average. Even the 20-day exponential mean average is
06:00 placed somewhere close to around 15,120. So, we may see some further slippages there. But
06:06 the major trend for Nifty IT also, Nifty Pharma also stays positive. So, after four weeks
06:11 of consolidation, probably we may see a resumption of the up move soon. And that's why we are
06:16 avoiding creating any short positions there.
06:19 Right. Sachit, how are you looking at the auto sector?
06:24 Well, Nikul, I think auto is one particular sector which has hit our radar last week.
06:31 If you look at the last four weeks' trading range, the sector itself has displayed a consolidation.
06:39 And last week, we saw a kind of a bullish hammer formation on its weekly scale. Today,
06:47 we have already seen a good positive crossover in its 5 and 20 exponential mean average.
06:51 So, if you look at the entire structure, this looks like a bullish flag formation in the
06:57 consolidation stage. And we may see the price action again evolving here on the positive
07:02 side. So, if you look at the structure itself, we are expecting that once this particular
07:08 breakout gets established above 15,580, we may see Nifty Auto displaying a very strong
07:18 momentum play. We are expecting that 16,700, 16,800 could be seen in the next couple of
07:27 months' time. And that's why I think some allocation can be considered when it comes
07:31 to Nifty Auto.
07:32 From the pack, we like two structures, both the stocks we have recommended to our clients.
07:38 One is Maruti, which was on a declining trajectory since last four weeks. And last week, we saw
07:45 a bullish hammer formation, which is almost resembling the Nifty Auto pack. And if you
07:51 look at the entire structure here, we are expecting that Maruti can see a swing towards
07:57 9,700 on an immediate basis. And positionally, the level at around 10,100 can be revisited.
08:06 I think it's a very good zone wherein the stock can be accumulated even from a portfolio
08:10 perspective. The stop losses can be placed somewhere close to around 90 to 50 on a closing
08:14 basis. The immediate target that we are eyeing is somewhere close to 9760. But eventually,
08:20 we see this particular move unfolding towards 10,000.
08:23 Sachit, how are you looking at HDFC, AMC, as well as Tata Communications? Both these
08:30 counters are seeing a bullish setup in trade today.
08:34 So, we have recommended Tata Communications to our clients. If you look at the overall
08:41 structure, the stock has displayed a very strong breakout, in fact, in yesterday's trading
08:48 session itself. Today, we have already seen a very substantial price action unfolding
08:53 here. The stock is locked into a very strong secular bull run. And if you look at the weekly
09:00 charts, there's a clear-cut rising three kind of a candlestick formation, which is again
09:06 a very rare continuation pattern formation. We are of the opinion that this particular
09:11 price action can extend right up to 1870. And that's why we are still recommending
09:17 building long positions here. The stop loss for Tata Communications can be placed somewhere
09:22 close to around 1735. And the stock can be reviewed somewhere close to around 1870.
09:29 How are you looking at BHEL? Because strong momentum there, OI addition is also pretty
09:33 strong in today's session. Volumes are pretty heavy. And you see the stock price performance
09:40 as well as pretty strong in today's session. Well, honestly, we missed capturing this particular
09:49 move. In fact, 100, 105 was the level where we were seeing some cluster data, but we did
09:58 miss this particular breakout. But I think the monthly charts are very interesting. In
10:01 fact, if you look at the way it has reconquered its 200-month exponential moving average,
10:09 we have seen very strong buying strength, which has evolved near to that particular
10:15 support of around 97, where it's 200-month exponential moving average is placed. So I
10:20 think the major structure has changed. And still, we see a good, strong positive development
10:27 getting unfolded here. So from a patent perspective, if you look at the entire rounding formation,
10:34 it is still exhibiting a price target somewhere close to around 145. So on a decline, I think
10:39 the stock can be accumulated. On the lower side, the 97 support looks promising. So probably
10:45 we can keep a stop loss somewhere close to around 95 on a closing basis. And make sure
10:50 that this particular stock also becomes a part of your once portfolio. From a patent
10:58 perspective, the target is placed somewhere closer on 145. So there is still a good amount
11:03 of upside, which is yet to be seen. And every decline towards 105 would be a good opportunity
11:09 to accumulate it.
11:10 Right. How are you looking at NMDC as well as NALCO?
11:15 So NMDC, again, here, there has been a very slow, gradual up move, which has been unlocking.
11:25 But if you look at the broader structure here, again, it is a rounding bottom kind of formation.
11:30 We may see this gradual up move getting continued right up to 130. So from a trading perspective,
11:38 I think the support base is quite prominent at around 115. And I think this is where one
11:45 can keep their stop losses. Until this particular base holds, we may not see any change in this
11:52 particular momentum. And we may see further elevated levels towards 130. So I think even
12:01 right now, any opportunity on the downside could be utilized to create some long positions.
12:06 So the stop loss can be placed at around 150.
12:09 Right. Sajith, apart from the names that we've discussed, anything else that comes to your
12:13 radar that could be good investment opportunities?
12:18 I think from the AutoPAC itself, I think there have been substantial opportunities here.
12:24 We have already seen a very strong movement from escorts. Maruti is well positioned, forming
12:31 a base there. And the other stock that has hit our radar is Motopop. In the last few
12:38 weeks, we've already seen a very good corrective action here. And if you look at the last seven
12:44 trading sessions, despite the fact that the price has come, escalated lower from 3100,
12:51 but the entire decline has been very gradual. So if you look at the way daily RSI and weekly
12:58 RSI is placed, probably we may see a termination of this particular declining move soon. And
13:06 we may see Hero Motopop again resuming its up move. So this is a good dependable zone
13:11 where the stock can be accumulated. On the lower side, the stop losses can be placed
13:17 somewhere close to around 2850. On a positional basis, we are expecting that the stock could
13:22 again scale back towards 3300 and eventually surpass that all-time high level of around
13:29 3700 in a matter of few months. These are a few of the names that we should
13:34 be watching out for as well. Thank you, Sachit, so much for joining us on the show and sharing
13:39 the views. So that's with regards to clearly markets go. But in terms of closure, clearly
13:44 if you see we are below the 19,400 mark, nearly at the day's lowest levels is what we are
13:50 witnessing. Overall, if you go to see in terms of the stocks as well, the advance-decline
13:57 ratio overall is in favor of the bulls, but pretty much 50-50 in terms of the benchmark
14:04 indices. Adani Enterprises, HDFC Life, ITC, NTPC, Hero Moto, these are a few of the top
14:09 gainers in trade today, whereas Jio Financial Services, BPCL, Simpladisa, a few of the top
14:14 losers and second consecutive session of a lower circuit coming in, in terms of Jio Financial
14:19 Services. In fact, a news update where BSE has postponed Jio Financial's index exclusion
14:25 to August 29. This is what is just being reported as well as we speak on the exchanges. What
14:34 they have said is, initially, it would have been removed from indices overall on the 24th
14:42 of August. And taking into consideration the recent lower circuit that the stock has been
14:49 hitting, it's a second consecutive day the company has hit a lower circuit. Now, what
14:56 they have said is that the index committee has determined to postpone the removal of
14:59 the stock from all BSE indices by another three days. So, JFSL will now be removed from
15:06 the indices effective prior to the open of trading on the 29th of August, which is a
15:12 Tuesday. And should Jio Financial Services continue to hit lower circuit on the next
15:18 two days, the removal date will be deferred by another three days. And additionally, should
15:24 JFL not hit lower circuit limit on either of the next two days, but hits the lower circuit
15:30 limit on the third day, the removal of the company from all the BSE indices will be deferred
15:35 by another three days. Any postponement of a removal will be communicated as soon as
15:40 possible and there could be a change. So, that's the latest update that we are picking
15:45 up. So, there will be no removal yet. It will be only 29th of August that the exchanges
15:50 have communicated so far. So, that's with regards to where markets are concerned. That's
15:56 all that we have on this session. Thanks for watching and lots more lined up on the other
16:00 side. Please stay tuned to BQPrime.
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