00:00 The Ukrainian advance in the Botany area in western Zaporizhia region brings Ukrainian
00:08 forces closer to launching operations against second lines of defence that may be relatively
00:14 weaker than the first Russian defensive line in this area.
00:18 The Institute for the Study of War says Russian forces deployed to the wider western Zaporizhia
00:24 area have been defending against Ukrainian counter-offensive since the start of it without
00:30 rotation.
00:31 They do not appear to have uncommitted regular units in this area.
00:36 This suggests that second lines of Russian defence may be significantly less heavily
00:40 defended.
00:42 Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they
00:46 can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements.
00:52 Ukrainian offensive operations south of Velyka Novosilka here in this area proceeding in
00:59 parallel with operations towards Melitopol in this direction present Russian defenders
01:05 with multiple dilemmas and the need to choose which axis to reinforce.
01:11 Ukrainian offensive operations around Bakhmut here have fixed elements of multiple Russian
01:17 airborne divisions and separate brigades in the area as the Institute for the Study of
01:21 War has previously noted rendering them likely unavailable to stiffen Russian resistance
01:27 in the south of Ukraine.
01:30 The Institute for the Study of War states sound campaign design requires balancing between
01:35 awaiting a decisive main effort and avoiding allowing the enemy to concentrate all reserves
01:40 on stopping a single obvious thrust.
01:43 [SWOOSH]
