00:00 Well, Hurricane Lee now rapidly intensifying.
00:04 I want to show you the water vapor loop.
00:06 You can clearly see the eye right in the center of where you have all the clouds.
00:10 That tells us that this system continues to strengthen.
00:13 Now you're looking at the water vapor loop and what I'm showing you is, and this is interesting,
00:17 you have dry air on the eastern side and the western side of the Hurricane Lee, but you
00:23 notice that the dry air is not coming in toward the center at all.
00:25 In fact, it's being pushed away.
00:28 Oftentimes these strengthening hurricanes create their own environment for development
00:32 and that's exactly what's happening with Lee and it is going to be going into some conditions
00:38 that are, let's say, pristine for development.
00:42 What do I mean by that?
00:43 I'm looking at very warm water temperatures.
00:45 In fact, we're looking at water temperatures 86 to 90 degrees.
00:49 There's abundant moisture.
00:50 There's not going to be any dry air and almost zero wind shear.
00:54 We never say that.
00:56 Zero wind shear.
00:58 This is going to explode and I promise you this, by Friday afternoon, if not earlier,
01:05 you're going to see what will be an awe-inspiring but frightening satellite picture of Lee where
01:12 you have that eye in the middle of the clouds and it's going to have that stadium effect.
01:17 When you look down, it looks like you're looking into a stadium.
01:19 That's what it's going to look like.
01:21 Now, the movement then to the west-northwest.
01:24 So what I wanted to do is one of the indicators that I always look at when we're forecasting,
01:29 where is this storm going to go?
01:30 I always like looking at history.
01:33 I always like looking at history to give you an idea of what normally happens.
01:36 So what we did was we took the location of this storm when it's category 4, category
01:41 5, north of the Virgin Islands and we said, okay, for the history of our storm tracks,
01:47 when we had a major hurricane in this exact location or near this location, where did
01:51 the storms go?
01:53 And this is the graphic we came up with.
01:55 And what it shows is the predominantly most of the storms in this part of the Atlantic
02:02 Basin that are major hurricanes during the month of September, most of these storms are
02:06 out to sea.
02:07 Now, I'm going to draw on this.
02:09 Most of them are out to sea, but not all of them.
02:14 Some of them move to where, where?
02:16 It's interesting.
02:18 The Outer Banks of North Carolina, Nova Scotia, and northern New England.
02:23 This is the area that this time of the year, we tend to get at least some direct impacts
02:29 from where the storm is located now.
02:31 So remember that.
02:32 The Outer Banks, North Carolina, and Nova Scotia.
02:35 History tells us, although it's a small chance, it's not a zero chance that that can occur.
02:40 With that in mind, I want to show you the two scenarios for what's going to happen with
02:44 this system.
02:46 Scenario number one, high pressure continues to steer this.
02:49 Lee, no problem.
02:50 But here's the big impact.
02:54 This next trough coming into the Northeast Thursday and Friday.
02:56 Where is it?
02:57 Is it strong?
02:58 Is it weak?
02:59 How far east is this going to be?
03:00 One scenario has this trough coming on in, fast moving, comes in, and it just steers
03:06 Lee out to sea, just like we saw with the historic tracks, right?
03:09 Out to sea, most of the direct impacts well offshore.
03:13 The only impact we'd be looking at is rough seas and dangerous rip currents.
03:18 That's what we're going to have.
03:19 That is one scenario that is on the board.
03:21 But there's also a scenario this trough is a little farther west.
03:25 And if it's farther west, then it's going to be able to draw Lee closer to the United
03:30 States.
03:31 Note the area that I've highlighted.
03:33 It's no coincidence when we looked at the history.
03:36 Historically, the storms where Lee is right now, where it will be, where do they tend
03:41 to hit if they do hit?
03:43 Outer Banks, North Carolina, Northern New England, Nova Scotia.
03:46 That's the area we've highlighted.
03:47 This is where, not that we're looking for a landfall, but this is where we're looking
03:52 for direct impacts, wind and rain.
03:56 Now I will tell you of this area right now, it is New England from Cape Cod, let's say
04:03 from Cape Cod toward Nova Scotia, that will have the highest threat of an impact.
04:08 The one area that we might clear, but I think it's too early, is this zone here from the
04:13 Outer Banks, North Carolina, New Jersey.
04:16 That is the area we're going to look at.
04:18 We're not going to clear it now, it's too early.
04:20 Meanwhile, Southeast North Carolina all the way toward Florida, you're in the clear, from
04:24 direct impacts.
04:27 That means wind and rain.
04:29 So this is the area we're highlighting right now.
04:31 From a historical perspective, and what we're looking at as far as meteorology is concerned,
04:37 this is where you have to be concerned of a direct impact, wind and rain, but of that
04:41 area, it is this zone in New England that has the higher probability.
04:46 Now regardless, as I mentioned, regardless of what happens with this, we want to let
04:50 you know, this is what you need to know.
04:52 This is going to be a powerful hurricane, this is going to be a category 5 hurricane.
04:55 By the way, we were the first to predict a category 5 hurricane.
04:59 It's going to end up happening.
05:00 Now again, odds favor this staying east of the United States.
05:04 New England you have to be careful, but I think odds favor this staying east of the
05:07 United States.
05:08 Because how far west can it come?
05:11 And right now, Outer Banks, North Carolina toward Nova Scotia for some impacts.
05:17 Regardless, dangerous surf and dangerous rip currents.
05:21 All next week, from Florida all the way up toward Maine.
05:25 Stay with AccuWeather.com.
05:26 [BLANK_AUDIO]
