00:00 Only about two weeks or a little more than two weeks left in the hurricane season.
00:06 Of course, hurricane season ends in November and there is an area we're keeping an eye
00:11 on but you know for most of the Atlantic, this is what you would typically see this
00:15 time of the year.
00:17 Not a whole lot.
00:18 We do have some clouds but boy conditions across the Atlantic Basin, not conducive for
00:23 development.
00:24 It's what I say hostile for development because for tropical development you need lots of
00:29 moisture and low wind shear.
00:31 We have the opposite going on across the Atlantic Basin.
00:34 Take a look at the amount of dry air that we have here.
00:36 You can see it from Cuba, northern part of the Caribbean, all the way into the tropical
00:40 Atlantic.
00:41 Look at all that yellow and orange showing you you have very dry air.
00:45 You also have very strong winds, what we call wind shear.
00:49 Strong winds in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere.
00:51 In fact, much of the Atlantic Basin you see this dark purple.
00:55 That's why we have the strongest winds.
00:57 You will note however a couple of areas starting to show up here near Hispaniola but especially
01:02 in the southern Caribbean with the wind shear.
01:06 It's like an island of light winds around a huge ocean of strong winds and that is in
01:14 the Caribbean.
01:15 Now this week wind shear is going to remain high throughout the Atlantic Basin.
01:18 So I'm not worried about any places off the southeast coast of the United States or off
01:22 Africa.
01:23 Here's the area to look because we have low wind shear, there's not a lot of dry air and
01:27 also, also very warm water temperatures.
01:31 Take a look at the ocean temperature anomaly here in the southwestern Caribbean.
01:36 We're at least a couple of degrees above historical averages here.
01:39 So it is bath water down there.
01:42 So with less dry air, lower wind shear and warm water.
01:46 See you're starting to get a blow up here of showers and thunderstorms in the southwest
01:50 Caribbean.
01:51 Now this is an area to watch especially later on this week because we're going to get something
01:56 to kind of help jump start this process a little more.
01:58 We're going to watch a frontal boundary come on south as a big area of high pressure builds
02:02 across the mid Atlantic.
02:04 And whenever you see a high pressure this time of the year, you always look in the Caribbean
02:08 for development.
02:09 I think we're going to get an area of low pressure that's going to come northward and
02:13 try to develop here south of Jamaica.
02:15 However and that will be later on this week.
02:18 However, the wind shear near Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba is still going to be strong.
02:24 So this system as it comes north is going to weaken.
02:28 Now I don't know if it's just going to be a tropical low or a tropical depression.
02:31 I think we're at least going to get a depression if not a storm.
02:34 But as it comes northward, it's going to be running in the wind shear.
02:37 So it will weaken.
02:38 The other thing and you know, we made this announcement a couple of weeks ago that the
02:41 hurricane season is over for the United States.
02:44 No no landfalling storms.
02:47 I don't think this has a chance to get to the United States because there's just large
02:53 scale westerly winds.
02:55 So this system would have to go to the north and then northeast and stay east of the United
03:00 States.
03:01 But it would be running in the wind shear.
03:03 One thing I will say, this area from Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola, we could be looking
03:07 at some heavy rains here as we get toward the latter half of this week.
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