00:00 What impact does a stable government have on the share market?
00:04 When a government is stable, how does the share market react?
00:07 What does the share market want in terms of government?
00:10 What a common man wants is the biggest question.
00:13 If there is a stable government, its policies will be stable.
00:17 The policy will be connected to the common man.
00:20 After 10 years of Modi's government, you saw a 54% rally in the stock market.
00:26 If I compare the mid-cap and small-cap, then in a year, the mid-cap and small-cap rallied 55% to 45%.
00:35 The index like the normal Nifty surprised you by more than 18%.
00:41 So, a stable government means that the economy keeps moving well.
00:46 And the decisions of the policies keep coming to you from time to time.
00:50 If there is an unstable government, then the uncertainty will increase.
00:53 For example, Eurozone, which used to lead the market, is in a bad situation.
01:00 Let's not talk about Pakistan, which is doing better.
01:03 On the other hand, the US is also in a similar situation.
01:07 The US has been lagging behind in the last 10 years because of its policies.
01:13 And the political stability is not strong there.
01:18 Leaders have not come strong enough.
01:20 This is the reason why there is an impact on the market.
01:22 Let's talk about the sector.
01:25 Suppose, BJP has come to power.
01:29 After that, which sectors will be strong and which will be weak?
01:35 This is a tough question.
01:40 But, if I go back to the scenario, I feel that if BJP continues to be in power,
01:48 then the PSUs will shine.
01:54 And PSUs will shine a lot.
01:57 Now, which sectors will come?
01:59 Banking counter is the most popular sector.
02:03 If you look at power, infrastructure, energy counter,
02:09 EV and auto sector, there are no significant changes.
02:18 The uptrend will continue.
02:23 But, who will be sad?
02:26 I feel that a reality counter will be in an overbought situation.
02:31 And in the long term, I am not talking about short term,
02:35 but if the Modi government is formed and stays for 5 years,
02:39 then in the next 3 years, the reality counter will not be in a downtrend.
02:43 You will see it in infrastructure, but not in the uptrend.
02:48 The IT counter is also in a downtrend.
02:51 The domestic level is also in a downtrend.
02:56 This can also be a reason for a recovery.
02:59 The third sector will not rise nor fall.
03:03 The companies of FMCG will not see much volatility.
03:11 If the India Alliances government is formed,
03:16 then which sectors will be in a good position?
03:23 The top will be stable.
03:31 The reality will be in a downtrend.
03:34 But the reality has already boomed.
03:37 I feel that there should be a profit booking.
03:39 The stock should come down.
03:42 The government projects are having an impact on the sectors I have discussed.
03:50 But, they are demanding on the fundamental structure.
03:54 The demand for power is not going to be less.
03:56 Power is our necessity.
03:59 Mining is our necessity.
04:01 The banking counter will be there.
04:03 But, some particular banks will be there.
04:05 There may be a rally in the private banks.
04:07 But, the overall profit booking will be there.
04:10 I feel that the energy counter, EV and auto sectors will be in a downtrend.
04:21 The infrastructure sector will be in a downtrend.
04:26 The performance of the companies will be poor.
04:29 They may have to face many challenges.
04:32 If you are understanding this directly or indirectly.
04:35 The rally that they had in the past may have affected the company's shares.
04:46 What should be the strategy of investors?
05:00 I will follow a simple formula.
05:04 I will share it with you.
05:07 I don't know where the market is going.
05:09 I don't know which government will come.
05:12 But, the basic demands will be there.
05:15 The basic stock market will be there.
05:17 I will select 5 sectors.
05:20 I will pick 5 stocks from each sector.
05:25 I have 5 sectors in total.
05:27 5 stocks from each sector means 25 stocks.
05:31 Your portfolio should have 25 stocks.
05:34 You can invest 1 lakh or 1 crore rupees.
05:40 Or, you can invest a bigger amount.
05:42 If you invest more stocks, you will face problems.
05:44 So, buy a basket of 25 stocks.
05:47 Now, we discussed about the sectors to be bought.
05:49 No sector will move without banking.
05:53 Because, it is needed.
05:54 If we come to the second sector, we will talk about mining.
05:57 Because, it is a demand that will not be reduced.
06:00 If we come to the third sector, we will talk about the power sector.
06:07 And, we will talk about the energy sector.
06:10 If you want to run the business safely,
06:13 And, you don't want to take a big impact in the market,
06:15 Then, you should use the pharma sector.
06:18 Many companies are doing well in the pharma sector.
06:21 Many companies have invested in research.
06:23 And, we can see the impact.
06:24 So, I think you should buy the pharma sector.
06:29 Now, let's come to the last sector, the auto sector.
06:31 Because, I have told you about 4 sectors.
06:33 In the auto sector, the distribution is like this.
06:36 Auto and auto auxiliaries.
06:38 See, the population is of 1.25 crores.
06:41 The car sales are making new records every year.
06:44 The weighting is still going on.
06:46 So, there will be a fundamental demand.
06:48 So, I think you should buy 5 stocks from this sector.
06:53 Don't buy small stocks.
06:55 Don't buy stocks whose names are not heard.
06:56 Buy stocks from these stocks.
06:59 No matter where the market goes,
07:00 No matter what the government is,
07:01 This stability will keep you stable.
07:04 And, it will help you in your profitability.
07:06 Absolutely.
07:07 See, the share market is a thing which is called a priest.
07:10 The mood of the share market tells us what will happen and what will not.
07:13 What do you think, what is the mood of the share market saying at this time?
07:16 Whose government will be formed?
07:17 See, the share market is showing its smile.
07:21 It is showing its readiness.
07:23 According to that, the current government should continue.
07:26 And, what is your take?
07:28 What are your personal views?
07:30 See, there is a slogan of theirs.
07:32 I will definitely say it here.
07:34 They have given a slogan of 400.
07:36 If we talk about 400, it seems a little extreme positive.
07:42 But, I feel that if we see the overall structure,
07:46 It is not a strong number.
07:48 But, the numbers that came last time,
07:50 Even if the numbers are less, it will not have that much impact.
07:54 But, it is clear that the current government is getting a lot of it.
07:59 Amit Shah had recently said that the 400 will definitely come.
08:05 He said this after the voting of 4 phases.
08:08 So, at that time, the share market can have a different impact if it comes beyond 400.
08:15 See, this is a theoretical question.
08:19 I will give a theoretical answer.
08:21 If the BJP government comes beyond 400,
08:24 Then, its impact will be seen in the current market.
08:29 As I said, you can see a rally of 5-8% and 10%
08:33 That rally can be increased by 1.5-2% instead of 5%.
08:38 But, if we see some stock specific,
08:41 Then, the tenure of the rally will increase.
08:43 will increase.
