Has the Nifty 50's return above the 25,000 mark signalled a structural turnaround in the Indian stock market, or is it just a technical bounce? After gaining nearly 10.6% over the past month, the market is showing fresh signs of pressure. Is the current rally losing momentum, and should investors prepare for a possible 5–8% correction? In this exclusive market discussion, we decode HSBC's India upgrade, Citi's Nifty 28,000 target and the key drivers behind India's market outlook. Is the next leg of growth likely to come from valuation reset, earnings recovery or strong credit growth?
Nifty 25,000 का स्तर दोबारा हासिल करने के बाद क्या भारतीय शेयर बाजार में नई तेजी की शुरुआत हो चुकी है या यह सिर्फ एक Technical Bounce है? पिछले एक महीने में Nifty में करीब 10.6% की तेजी के बाद अब फिर से दबाव नजर आ रहा है। ऐसे में क्या Market Rally कमजोर पड़ रही है और क्या निवेशकों को एक बड़े Correction के लिए तैयार रहना चाहिए?
HSBC के India Upgrade और Citi के Nifty 28,000 Target ने बाजार में नई उम्मीद जगाई है। लेकिन इस तेजी के पीछे असली वजह क्या है—Valuation Reset, Earnings Recovery या मजबूत Credit Growth? क्या FII Inflows टिकाऊ रहेंगे और Lower Crude Oil भारतीय बाजार के लिए कितना बड़ा Positive Trigger साबित हो सकता है?
इस खास बातचीत में समझिए:
Nifty 25,000 का Structural Signal या Technical Bounce?
क्या बाजार में 5–8% Correction की आशंका है?
HSBC का India Upgrade कितना टिकाऊ है?
Citi के Nifty 28,000 Target के पीछे कौन-से बड़े Assumptions हैं?
Banks, Industrials और Consumer Discretionary में कहां बेहतर Risk-Reward?
FII Buying क्या जारी रहेगी?
Smallcap और Microcap Stocks में कमजोरी के क्या संकेत हैं?
अगले 6–12 महीनों के लिए कौन-से Sectors और Themes बेहतर दिख रहे हैं?
Long-Term Investors के लिए Largecap, Midcap, Smallcap और Cash का सही Allocation क्या होना चाहिए?
भारतीय शेयर बाजार की अगली चाल, संभावित Correction और निवेश की सही रणनीति को समझने के लिए पूरा वीडियो देखें।
Disclaimer: यह वीडियो केवल जानकारी और शैक्षणिक उद्देश्य के लिए है। इसे निवेश की सलाह न समझें। निवेश से पहले अपने Financial Advisor से सलाह जरूर लें।
#Nifty #StockMarket #ShareMarket #Nifty25000 #NiftyTarget28000 #IndianStockMarket #MarketAnalysis #HSBC #Citi #FII #StockMarketNews #Nifty50 #InvestmentStrategy #SmallCap #BankingStocks
~PR.474~HT.408~GR.506~VG.HM~
Nifty 25,000 का स्तर दोबारा हासिल करने के बाद क्या भारतीय शेयर बाजार में नई तेजी की शुरुआत हो चुकी है या यह सिर्फ एक Technical Bounce है? पिछले एक महीने में Nifty में करीब 10.6% की तेजी के बाद अब फिर से दबाव नजर आ रहा है। ऐसे में क्या Market Rally कमजोर पड़ रही है और क्या निवेशकों को एक बड़े Correction के लिए तैयार रहना चाहिए?
HSBC के India Upgrade और Citi के Nifty 28,000 Target ने बाजार में नई उम्मीद जगाई है। लेकिन इस तेजी के पीछे असली वजह क्या है—Valuation Reset, Earnings Recovery या मजबूत Credit Growth? क्या FII Inflows टिकाऊ रहेंगे और Lower Crude Oil भारतीय बाजार के लिए कितना बड़ा Positive Trigger साबित हो सकता है?
इस खास बातचीत में समझिए:
Nifty 25,000 का Structural Signal या Technical Bounce?
क्या बाजार में 5–8% Correction की आशंका है?
HSBC का India Upgrade कितना टिकाऊ है?
Citi के Nifty 28,000 Target के पीछे कौन-से बड़े Assumptions हैं?
Banks, Industrials और Consumer Discretionary में कहां बेहतर Risk-Reward?
FII Buying क्या जारी रहेगी?
Smallcap और Microcap Stocks में कमजोरी के क्या संकेत हैं?
अगले 6–12 महीनों के लिए कौन-से Sectors और Themes बेहतर दिख रहे हैं?
Long-Term Investors के लिए Largecap, Midcap, Smallcap और Cash का सही Allocation क्या होना चाहिए?
भारतीय शेयर बाजार की अगली चाल, संभावित Correction और निवेश की सही रणनीति को समझने के लिए पूरा वीडियो देखें।
Disclaimer: यह वीडियो केवल जानकारी और शैक्षणिक उद्देश्य के लिए है। इसे निवेश की सलाह न समझें। निवेश से पहले अपने Financial Advisor से सलाह जरूर लें।
#Nifty #StockMarket #ShareMarket #Nifty25000 #NiftyTarget28000 #IndianStockMarket #MarketAnalysis #HSBC #Citi #FII #StockMarketNews #Nifty50 #InvestmentStrategy #SmallCap #BankingStocks
~PR.474~HT.408~GR.506~VG.HM~
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and Welcome, I'll see you in the good returns, I'm going to turn on you in the markets with
00:04JR.
00:05I have got something that happens in the next month in the market.
00:09I will now know that in the coming days, this time, this time, the market will show the pressure.
00:18Because, the whole week, the retail market was not safe for the market.
00:24the bulls in the bazaar, all the factors are in favor of the market, but now the 13 november
00:33which the market trades in the red light, is what is normal profit booking or triggers
00:40which we have avoided and which it is not necessary. Which sectors are which you have to talk about next
00:46week
00:46or long term if we talk about it, then you should add your portfolio in your portfolio
00:50or which you should make a little bit further. This is all about the market with JR
00:54and we have a very special guest here. Kristi Madhai is here from Quantum AMC.
01:02Sir, welcome to Good Returns. Thank you, Anima, for joining us in your career.
01:07Sir, first of all, we give a little overall market data to our viewers.
01:14We give a lot of results. The entire week, we have seen a lot of positive results.
01:18The grip, the bulls, the grip, the bulls, and there were a lot of factors that have been
01:25positively affected by the bazaar. If we talk about performance, the entire week has seen a green,
01:33it has seen a lot of results. But on the last trading day, there is pressure on the 25,168
01:38level.
01:46The pressure on the bank is also shown on the 50,997 level.
01:54The pressure on the bank is shown on the 50,997 level.
02:05Or the normal profit booking. This is a big question. Sir, the target of the 25,000 level was reclaimed.
02:16And we have seen a very good start of this week. We have seen a very good start of this
02:20week.
02:20In the past trading session, the bazaar has seen a lot from the last trading session.
02:23Do we call this structural shift or technical bounce?
02:27Because the pressure is also showing the pressure on the 1-2 months.
02:32So, in the past 1-2 months, when you saw returns, there were a lot of returns on the lower
02:41side of the market.
02:42Only in the past 1-2 months, we are seeing a little reversal of this trend.
02:48Especially the large cap, which were pockets, there were FIS flows.
02:53So, we have seen numbers in the past 1-2 months.
02:56So, we are seeing some reversal of this trend.
03:00And there are two-three reasons.
03:02One is clearly, India's earnings growth is a growth.
03:06Especially second.
03:07Now, the 2Q numbers are not finished.
03:10But the 2Q earnings are quite reasonable.
03:14Despite the cost pressures, which were quite a lot,
03:17because of that,
03:23your earnings growth is almost like 15% to 15% to 16%.
03:28You can see the numbers of NSE Find It now.
03:30The numbers are quite reasonable.
03:33So, if you look at these numbers in the first half of 27,
03:37then Nifty 50 earnings are at least 15% plus.
03:41Nifty, NSE Find It, which is a broader index,
03:44it is also around.
03:45We will have to see how this trend goes.
03:48So, earnings growth is a major important factor.
03:53The second thing is that,
03:54if you look at Indian markets,
03:56Visa, MHCI, Emerging markets,
03:59which are emerging markets,
04:01even global markets,
04:02there was a lot of underperformance in India.
04:04If you look at one year return,
04:06there was almost 30% underperformance
04:08versus EM index,
04:09and around 28% S&P 500.
04:12So, whenever there is such a stark underperformance,
04:16and you will give earnings trigger,
04:18then somewhere,
04:19the flows also positively impact,
04:22which we have seen in a week.
04:24And also,
04:25you are seeing the AI trade globally,
04:26because India is a lot of anti-AI,
04:32because India is not a data center place,
04:35typically on the hardware side.
04:37So,
04:37the softness of those stocks in the US,
04:40has a positive impact on India.
04:42So,
04:42I think,
04:43these are 2-3-4 reasons,
04:45for which we are seeing this reversal.
04:48And,
04:48we believe that,
04:49unless crude,
04:51which is a very important factor,
04:53it doesn't go up,
04:55so,
04:56this trend should mostly sustain,
04:58if the earnings positively continue.
05:01Okay.
05:03So,
05:03crude,
05:03there is a major reason,
05:05that you have told us,
05:06that the market is affecting,
05:08but,
05:08there is another big factor,
05:10which is looking at the Bazaar,
05:12which is the policy of the US Fed,
05:13which is the policy of the US Fed.
05:17Do you expect the rate hike from the US Fed?
05:17Do you expect the rate hike from the US Fed?
05:19Clearly,
05:20market participants,
05:21because inflation,
05:22you know,
05:25you know,
05:26all of the people are expecting,
05:27some of the people expected that maybe
05:27it could be a higher hike,
05:28that the quantum,
05:30you know,
05:3025-50 basis point,
05:32there are a lot of views.
05:35But,
05:36with regards to that,
05:37it should happen,
05:38because,
05:38today,
05:38the inflation,
05:39the US Fed,
05:41is the expectations,
05:43which is a 2% increase,
05:45and commodity prices,
05:46it is not a bit lower,
05:48because,
05:48as we started this year,
05:50crude was almost like 70,
05:51which has a major inflationary impact plus supply chain etc.
05:58So, it is still on the upper level.
06:02So, the inflationary pressure continues, especially in the US economy.
06:05So, that rate hike should also be on our side.
06:09Okay.
06:10Sir, crude, if it comes to 100 dollars per value,
06:14if we look at a long term picture,
06:16because crude is very volatile.
06:17On the other hand, crude relaxes the market a little bit,
06:21and after that, there is a spike.
06:23If crude comes to 100 dollars,
06:26the dollar index is already high,
06:28at this time, the dollar index is already high.
06:31If the rate is high,
06:32then what will the market change the scenario?
06:37See, India also, in a sense,
06:41let's say, we talk about crude,
06:42so, if you look at crude impact on earnings,
06:48so,
06:49there is a lot of impact in some sectors, clearly.
06:52Now, like OMCs,
06:55because all oil marketing companies,
06:58which are in India,
06:59all the crude,
07:01you know, high impact on government,
07:04will not have to deal with it.
07:05Otherwise, it will be passed on as a consumer or companies.
07:08So, that is clear impact.
07:11Talk about cement companies,
07:12aviation companies,
07:14or broader FMCG-backed industrials,
07:17which has a little bit of a lack of impact on input prices.
07:21So, all these sectors,
07:24it has an impact.
07:25And in the second half,
07:26we have seen that,
07:27sorry,
07:27this is the first half,
07:30already,
07:31its impact on earnings.
07:33So,
07:34any company,
07:35where the price hike has been,
07:37they have taken the price hike.
07:39So,
07:39till now,
07:40we have seen the impact on the price hike.
07:43That is not the impact on the price hike.
07:44That is,
07:45probably,
07:45in the second half,
07:46it will be possible to see us.
07:49But,
07:50crude,
07:51in the earnings.
07:52Other than that,
07:53if you look at the macros,
07:54we will see that,
07:55typically,
07:56the sensitivity,
07:57every 10 dollar increase of crude,
08:01our CAD,
08:02almost 0.4,
08:030.45,
08:04impact.
08:05Inflationary impact,
08:06almost,
08:07RBI,
08:07that data is around,
08:0950 basis points,
08:10around 50 basis points,
08:11if the 10 dollar increase,
08:13in inflation.
08:14But,
08:14this inflation,
08:15is still the government,
08:16has shielded us,
08:17because it has an impact on oil marketing companies.
08:21So,
08:22India,
08:23I would say,
08:2470,
08:2580,
08:25which is crude,
08:26it is very comfortable,
08:28because India,
08:29the macro parameters,
08:30is very improved.
08:31But,
08:31on the top,
08:32there is a little earnings impact.
08:36Last,
08:37one month,
08:38if we look at data,
08:39then,
08:39it looks like,
08:4010.6 percent,
08:42the pressure,
08:43the pressure,
08:44the pressure,
08:45the pressure,
08:47if we look at it,
08:48but,
08:48then,
08:49the rally is fragile.
08:52See,
08:53because,
08:54this is just one month data,
08:56so,
08:57it is very difficult to predict,
08:58but,
08:58just fundamentally,
09:00you see,
09:00so,
09:01almost two years,
09:03your returns,
09:06depending on the index,
09:08large capital,
09:08small capital,
09:10it is very long term,
09:11lower,
09:13the primary reason,
09:14I said,
09:16earnings growth,
09:16if you have 50,
09:18or,
09:18three years,
09:19earnings growth,
09:20around,
09:217-8 percent,
09:23which is,
09:23lower than,
09:24normal GDP growth,
09:26country,
09:26and,
09:27that,
09:287-8 percent,
09:29certain sectors,
09:30like,
09:30steel,
09:31materials,
09:32it has a lot of outsize impact,
09:34but,
09:34if you look at the crore sector,
09:36then,
09:37earnings growth,
09:38no growth,
09:39so,
09:39India,
09:40at the current juncture,
09:42this is,
09:42that,
09:42you have a base impact,
09:43because,
09:44your base is so low,
09:45so,
09:46earnings growth,
09:46should come to the lower base,
09:48so,
09:49that is one,
09:50and,
09:51so,
09:51earnings growth,
09:54this year,
09:561-2 years,
09:57so,
09:57clearly,
09:59positive bias,
10:00second,
10:01valuation,
10:01valuation,
10:02if you look at large cap,
10:05the historical,
10:07valuation,
10:08almost 15-18 percent,
10:10we talk about 50-50,
10:12we talk about 30-50,
10:13we talk about 30-50,
10:14so,
10:14some of the valuation support,
10:16at this juncture,
10:17so,
10:18typically,
10:18when these two,
10:20positive bias,
10:20the market return,
10:22over next two years,
10:23two to three years,
10:24is good,
10:25typically,
10:26if you look at long term,
10:27data,
10:27we will see,
10:28so,
10:29that's why,
10:30we believe that,
10:32the market returns,
10:34here,
10:34is good,
10:35and,
10:35there is also an indicator,
10:37we call upside potential,
10:39which,
10:40basically,
10:40is only our portfolio companies,
10:43you know,
10:44expectation,
10:45on terms of returns,
10:47so,
10:48this number,
10:49somewhere,
10:49was lower,
10:50two years before,
10:51October,
10:52October 24,
10:53because,
10:54market valuation,
10:55starting valuation,
10:56was very high,
10:56but,
10:57as you progress,
10:58what happened,
10:59in two years,
11:00that,
11:00the valuation,
11:01is quite delayed,
11:02across pockets,
11:03because,
11:04earnings,
11:05portfolio companies,
11:06compounded,
11:07so,
11:09upside indicators,
11:11slightly,
11:11on the higher side,
11:13compared to averages,
11:13so,
11:14two,
11:15three factors,
11:16investors,
11:18over two,
11:18three years,
11:19return expectations,
11:20better,
11:21from the current levels,
11:23better,
11:24but,
11:24how much better,
11:26is this question,
11:27because,
11:27global brokerage,
11:28is bullish,
11:29on the Indian market,
11:30if,
11:31we talk about HSBC,
11:32India,
11:33has upgraded,
11:34and,
11:36the city,
11:37gave us $28,000,
11:39a target,
11:40and,
11:40some data,
11:41I have seen,
11:43some brokerages,
11:44that,
11:4530,000,
11:46to 2027,
11:48how realistic,
11:50this target,
11:51and,
11:51which,
11:52two,
11:53three assumptions,
11:54that,
11:54is possible,
11:54to see,
11:55the target,
11:56is possible,
11:59I don't comment,
12:00about the brokerages,
12:02because,
12:02their own independent,
12:04thinking,
12:05you will see,
12:05multiple brokers,
12:07have different views,
12:08can be used,
12:08but,
12:09like,
12:10two,
12:10three,
12:11key parameters,
12:12which,
12:13can be favourable,
12:16especially,
12:16in the global,
12:17you know,
12:18FI flows,
12:20perspective,
12:22one,
12:22like I said,
12:24so,
12:25absent,
12:26three years,
12:27before,
12:28and,
12:28globally,
12:30earnings,
12:31strong,
12:32so,
12:33this,
12:33big pressure,
12:34because,
12:35if you are,
12:36any institutional,
12:38allocator,
12:38globally,
12:39you will go,
12:40where there are,
12:41earnings,
12:42and,
12:42like,
12:42in Korea,
12:43Taiwan,
12:44you cannot ignore it,
12:49right,
12:50and,
12:50if,
12:50if,
12:51the allocation,
12:53also,
12:54that is one,
12:56incrementally,
12:56and,
12:57India,
12:58earnings,
12:59next,
13:00two years,
13:00is looking good,
13:01so,
13:02earnings,
13:02support,
13:03as I said,
13:04valuations,
13:06at least,
13:07long term averages,
13:08large cap indices,
13:0950 percent,
13:10cheaper,
13:11compared to,
13:12averages,
13:12and,
13:14third,
13:15I think,
13:16that,
13:16we say,
13:19that,
13:19AI,
13:19unwinding,
13:21that,
13:21there are not much proof points,
13:24only one month,
13:24data,
13:25because,
13:26that,
13:26you know,
13:28in the US markets,
13:30so,
13:30now,
13:31data center activity,
13:33peak,
13:34hardware,
13:35capex,
13:36that you are seeing,
13:37slowly,
13:38because,
13:39in the US,
13:40now,
13:41elections,
13:42mid-term elections,
13:43and,
13:43somewhere,
13:44the pace,
13:46of data center addition,
13:47in the US,
13:48does not,
13:49so,
13:50hardware,
13:50can be a little deflationary,
13:52going ahead,
13:53which,
13:53was not in the last 2-3 years,
13:55this,
13:56all India,
13:57positively,
13:58bias,
13:59this,
14:00I can say,
14:02near term,
14:03it can be positive,
14:04but,
14:04long term,
14:05India,
14:05India,
14:06place,
14:07globally,
14:09GDP growth,
14:10six,
14:10six and a half,
14:11from many years,
14:12that,
14:13not change,
14:14inflation,
14:14around 4-5%,
14:16that,
14:16so,
14:17nominal GDP growth,
14:18of 11-12%,
14:20India,
14:20every year,
14:21India,
14:21you see,
14:24cyclically,
14:24not high earnings,
14:25but,
14:27India,
14:28a very stable market,
14:29right,
14:30so,
14:31from that perspective,
14:32you see,
14:34that,
14:3450-50,
14:35earnings,
14:352-3%,
14:36this,
14:37clearly,
14:38so,
14:40that,
14:40long term perspective,
14:42from here on,
14:43which,
14:44should help,
14:46for Indian retail investor,
14:47so,
14:48I think,
14:49that bias,
14:50compared to,
14:51short term trends,
14:52which,
14:53chain viewers,
14:54okay,
14:56FII inflows,
14:57short term trend,
14:58or long term trend,
14:59,
15:02absolutely,
15:03so,
15:03FII trends,
15:04so,
15:06if,
15:06if,
15:06a month,
15:06almost,
15:09sellers,
15:11so,
15:12this reason,
15:13I have also known,
15:14EM flows,
15:15you know,
15:16develop markets,
15:17a lot of things,
15:18but,
15:19if,
15:19a little long term search,
15:21that,
15:21India,
15:22global GDP,
15:24how much contribution,
15:26roughly,
15:26it's around,
15:263.2%,
15:28so,
15:29that's not enough,
15:29and,
15:32MSCI,
15:32ACQUI,
15:33the world index,
15:35like,
15:35MSCI world cap,
15:37all country index,
15:39which are the whole world,
15:40market cap,
15:41so,
15:42if you look at that,
15:43India's contribution,
15:44is only 2%,
15:45so,
15:47over a long term,
15:48I am not saying,
15:49that this will happen in one year,
15:50or in six months,
15:52there is a clear positive bias,
15:54because,
15:54India's,
15:55you know,
15:56market cap,
15:58India's,
15:58allocation,
16:00compared to its GDP contribution,
16:02to world,
16:03is at least,
16:041% point,
16:05difference,
16:06right,
16:06and the 1% point,
16:08is a lot of flows,
16:09right,
16:09and clearly,
16:10that is a positive trend,
16:12but,
16:13I have just said,
16:14that near term,
16:15now,
16:15if,
16:16crude goes up,
16:18and,
16:18you know,
16:19currency weaken,
16:20so,
16:20clearly,
16:20people may not be happy,
16:22right,
16:22so,
16:23reversal,
16:24but,
16:25at least,
16:25our view is,
16:26if earnings trend,
16:28for the rest of the year,
16:29continues,
16:30at stable macro factors,
17:00so,
17:02taking,
17:02more bullish,
17:03long term,
17:04marketer,
17:05also,
17:05rewards quality,
17:06and,
17:07you can think,
17:07right,
17:09see,
17:09small and micro cap,
17:10problem,
17:11at least,
17:12selectively,
17:13starting valuations,
17:14across points,
17:15you know,
17:15COVID,
17:17clearly,
17:19earnings growth,
17:20compared to large cap,
17:22and,
17:22just,
17:23BSE 50,
17:24or,
17:24BSE 500,
17:25you know,
17:28but,
17:28the problem is,
17:29starting valuation,
17:31especially,
17:31two years ago,
17:33from there,
17:34correction,
17:36in valuation,
17:37but,
17:37small cap,
17:38and micro cap,
17:39you have to be very selective,
17:41because,
17:41if you talk about opportunity,
17:44small finance banks,
17:46or small NBFCs,
17:47they did not participate,
17:48or,
17:50we are,
17:53looking at,
17:53some industrial small cap,
17:55or,
17:55any kind of thing,
17:57they did,
17:57well,
17:58so,
17:59starting problem is valuation,
18:01so,
18:01the pockets,
18:02where,
18:03small and micro cap,
18:04are very high,
18:06and,
18:06some earnings risks,
18:08are very much,
18:09and,
18:10very quickly,
18:10right,
18:12so,
18:13in our opinion,
18:13there is a little,
18:14artificial comparison,
18:15small cap and micro cap,
18:17you can own,
18:18very selectively,
18:20these two,
18:20three factors,
18:20consider,
18:21and,
18:22large cap,
18:23in our opinion,
18:23for traditional growth,
18:26it is very attractive,
18:28that's why,
18:29our bias,
18:30large cap,
18:31has become,
18:31at this point.
18:33Okay,
18:34sectoral rotations,
18:35is happening in the market,
18:37and,
18:37in the long term,
18:38if you look at sectoral rotations,
18:40then,
18:40which sectors,
18:41are showing more strength,
18:43and,
19:11you see,
19:41operating profits,
19:43and,
19:43almost like,
19:4480,
19:4419 percent,
19:45credit growth,
19:46maybe,
19:46a little less,
19:47but,
19:48a healthy,
19:49credit growth,
19:50after,
19:51you know,
20:20and,
20:50positive,
20:51in this sector,
20:51Okay,
20:53industrials,
20:54and,
20:55consumer discretionary,
20:56if I talk to you,
20:57sir,
20:57so,
20:58risk,
20:58reward,
20:59where is it?
21:02So,
21:03in these three segments,
21:04clearly,
21:05banks,
21:05are good,
21:06because,
21:07there are two,
21:08three catalysts,
21:10visibility,
21:11also,
21:11earning,
21:11which,
21:12wasn't in the last three years,
21:14and,
21:14also,
21:15also,
21:16the industry,
21:17can build up there.
21:20In the last three,
21:21four years,
21:21this sector has,
21:22phenomenal growth,
21:23but,
21:24now,
21:25you know,
21:26further,
21:27then,
21:29inflationary impact,
21:30and,
21:30export focused,
21:32the order books,
21:33can be very slow down,
21:35in our opinion,
21:36and,
21:36the major problem is,
21:38this,
21:39this,
21:40does not reflect the valuation,
21:42at that level,
21:43and,
21:43slightly,
21:43so,
21:44consumer discretionary,
21:46is very selective,
21:47in our opinion,
21:48if,
21:49as I said,
21:50auto,
21:51consumer discretionary,
21:52here,
21:53eight,
21:53commission,
21:55benefit,
21:57you know,
21:58tractor,
21:58as a pocket,
22:00maybe,
22:00rural,
22:00challenges,
22:01so,
22:03consumer discretionary,
22:04clear winner,
22:05in our opinion,
22:07for the,
22:08at least,
22:09for the medium term,
22:38business,
22:40last time,
22:41you know,
22:41some of the,
22:41FMCG company,
22:42that was in their portfolio,
22:43it was in 2013,
22:452014,
22:45and,
22:46you know,
22:48this is a whole period,
22:49so,
22:50now,
22:51when you see,
22:52certain stocks,
22:53attractive valuation,
22:55for the growth,
22:56it does,
22:56now,
22:57your expectation,
22:58growth in companies,
22:598-9%,
23:00normal EPS growth,
23:02some volume,
23:04some pricing,
23:11is very appropriate,
23:14so,
23:15some allocation,
23:15in this pocket,
23:16some allocation,
23:17has been allocated,
23:18capital market place,
23:19also,
23:21the market,
23:21the whole pocket,
23:23was a lot of correction,
23:24mode,
23:24last year,
23:26so,
23:26there were certain opportunities,
23:29within the capital markets,
23:32so,
23:32in the last 6 months,
23:34the allocation,
23:34has been improved,
23:36and,
23:37to these sects,
23:40if we are talking about,
23:42an ideal allocation,
23:44if we reject our portfolio,
23:45we reject our portfolio,
23:46then,
23:47how should we give,
23:48an ideal allocation,
23:50large cap,
23:51mid cap,
23:52and small cap,
23:53and,
23:53what should we percentage,
23:53for the other commodities,
23:54for the other commodities?
23:57Right,
23:58so,
23:58this is,
23:59your asset allocation,
24:01which you consult with,
24:02your financial planner,
24:04but,
24:04generally,
24:05as a mutual fund house,
24:07we have,
24:07a normal allocation,
24:09which is for,
24:10typically,
24:12if you are a risk-averse investor,
24:14we recommend,
24:16which is 12,
24:1720,
24:1780,
24:18so,
24:18you should always plan,
24:19that,
24:2012 months,
24:21which is 12 months,
24:2212 months,
24:24saving expenses,
24:25living expenses,
24:26in a safe,
24:27liquid fund,
24:29and,
24:30you should allocate,
24:32where,
24:33there is no more duration risk,
24:35or,
24:35there is no more credit risk,
24:36which should be safe,
24:37then,
24:38the other,
24:38what is your investable portion,
24:40we should think,
24:41that,
24:41your gold allocation,
24:43would be 20%,
24:44for a risk-averse investor,
24:46depending upon,
24:48your age,
24:49it can be less,
24:51but,
24:51generally,
24:52historically,
24:52you will get this allocation,
24:54so,
24:54your investment will be a good experience,
24:57a good experience,
24:59the 80% of your main surplus,
25:02you divide it in equity,
25:04between large,
25:05mid and small,
25:06so,
25:07we always say,
25:07that,
25:08your core investment,
25:09should be a large cap,
25:13you know,
25:13style of investment,
25:15where,
25:16you typically,
25:17do more allocation,
25:18and,
25:18where,
25:18you allocate stable companies,
25:20on that,
25:22you can take a little risk,
25:24you know,
25:25mid cap,
25:26small cap,
25:27so,
25:28your core,
25:29gives you stability,
25:30on that risk layer,
25:32so that,
25:33your total return,
25:35which is the goal of equity,
25:36that,
25:36you also suffer now,
25:38so,
25:38this is,
25:39basic,
25:39our average,
25:41risk-averse investor,
25:42we suggest,
25:44but,
25:44beyond that,
25:45exact allocation,
25:47we should consult each investor,
25:48from our planners,
25:49to our planners.
25:51We have recently,
25:52seen that,
25:53many investors,
25:54many renowned investors,
25:56have stolen money from the bazaar,
25:58do you suggest,
26:00this time,
26:00that,
26:01cash,
26:02or,
26:02you need to increase,
26:03you need to increase,
26:04you need to increase,
26:06see,
26:07cash,
26:08generally,
26:09from a,
26:10you know,
26:11investor perspective,
26:12as I said,
26:14what is your risk tolerance,
26:16that,
26:16you know,
26:1812 months,
26:19living expenses,
26:21it's okay,
26:23many people,
26:2424 months,
26:25or 30 months,
26:26or 6 months,
26:27it's completely different,
26:28it's your complete risk tolerance,
26:30so,
26:31this money,
26:31you should be safe,
27:01you should be safe,
27:02keeping more,
27:03you know,
27:05overall portfolio,
27:06drag,
27:07investment,
27:08so,
27:09our,
27:09our,
27:10individual preference,
27:12also,
27:13you know,
27:14portfolio level,
27:15if,
27:16we see,
27:17our,
27:18typical investment,
27:20cash,
27:20is built,
27:21when the market valuation is very expensive,
27:23like,
27:24October,
27:25or,
27:25September 24,
27:26our cash,
27:27almost,
27:2714,
27:2815 percent,
27:28our fund,
27:30because,
27:30it was difficult to deploy,
27:32because,
27:33market valuation,
27:34now,
27:34we are talking about,
27:35our cash allocation,
27:36around 2 percent,
27:38so,
27:39enough opportunities,
27:41in this market,
27:41we are getting,
27:43accordingly,
27:44I think,
27:45allocation,
27:46we move,
27:47okay,
27:49one last question,
27:50I have a little suggestion,
27:51to you,
27:52to your viewers,
27:53basically,
27:54to your investors,
27:56market confidence,
27:57is showing,
27:58this time,
27:59but,
27:59let's say,
28:00if it gets correct,
28:01by 5 to 8 percent,
28:03near future,
28:04or,
28:05long term future,
28:05anyhow,
28:06we can take it,
28:08what should we do,
28:09buy,
28:09hold,
28:10or reduce,
28:11your exposure,
28:13clearly,
28:14the market levels,
28:17we recommend,
28:18even,
28:19lump sum investment,
28:21because,
28:21we see,
28:22the upside,
28:24within,
28:24your asset allocation framework,
28:27you should invest,
28:28but,
28:29if,
28:29let's say,
28:30a pullback,
28:31you know,
28:325,
28:336,
28:33and,
28:33for example,
28:36as I said,
28:37crude,
28:3887,
28:3890 dollars,
28:42within,
28:432,
28:433 weeks,
28:44for whatever developments,
28:46it can go,
28:47100,
28:47or 110,
28:48we have seen,
28:49in the past,
28:508 months,
28:50there was a lot of volatility,
28:52and,
28:52currency,
28:53you know,
28:55so,
28:56market can,
28:57expect,
28:58that it can happen,
29:00so,
29:00you need to see,
29:01that,
29:02if,
29:02you have,
29:03surplus cash,
29:05which,
29:05I have,
29:05thought of,
29:06so,
29:08clearly,
29:09you should allocate,
29:09at this point,
29:11so,
29:11even,
29:11I would suggest,
29:12select,
29:13pockets,
29:13like,
29:14you know,
29:15lump sum,
29:16invest,
29:17so,
29:18because,
29:19market levels,
29:21are pretty reasonable,
29:22our fund offs,
29:23at least,
29:24here view,
29:24so,
29:25if,
29:26we look,
29:30in fact,
29:31if,
29:31we see,
29:31this way,
29:37there is a positive rally,
29:39which,
29:40there are some factors,
29:42which,
29:42support,
29:43but,
29:44there is a risk,
29:45in the past,
29:46because,
29:46there are a lot of factors,
29:48which are volatile,
29:49and,
29:49could change, crude being one of them.
29:52Besides, Fed's policy is going to come.
29:55It is very necessary to keep it on the long term.
29:59In India, the picture of the market is positive in long term.
30:01But it is also necessary to be cautious.
30:04For today's time, sir, thank you very much for joining us.
30:08What we have understood the way the Bazaar got a long term picture.
30:12We have seen a long term picture of the market.
30:13Some of our viewers will have to explain a scenario
30:16that the Bazaar needs to go right now.
30:20Because there is a lot of confusion
30:21when a long term recovery comes after a long term.
30:26Four more factors are going to come.
30:28So Vilal, the clarity I think will be helpful for our viewers.
30:32Thank you so much.
30:33And those who are watching,
30:35they have the suggestion that the market is volatile.
30:39There is always volatility in the market.
30:41This is what we have done.
30:43It is for your educational purpose.
30:45It is an important part.
30:46You will continue to give you information for what you are,
30:48but before the financial advisor,
30:51you will be very careful.
30:52Thank you very much.
30:54Thank you very much.