00:00This is Hurricane Lorenzo, previously a Category 5 hurricane. In fact, it was the easternmost
00:06Category 5 hurricane on record for the Atlantic. Now, a Category 2 hurricane, Lorenzo, is heading
00:13towards the Azores. But you may have heard reports that Lorenzo will impact the UK later
00:19this week. There is currently a lot of uncertainty about that, so let's take a look at what's
00:23going on. Here are the Azores, a group of Portuguese islands in the Atlantic, and it's
00:29by the middle of the week that Lorenzo is likely to bring the threat of hurricane-force
00:33winds, heavy rainfall and large sea waves. But it's after Hurricane Lorenzo moves through
00:39the Azores that things become very uncertain. And that's because Lorenzo moves away from
00:46very warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, shown here by red. This is currently providing
00:51the fuel for Lorenzo. However, as Lorenzo moves away from that fuel source, it starts
00:58to decay. It's at this point that we need another source of fuel for Lorenzo, and that
01:04comes in the form of the jet stream. And the uncertainties around Lorenzo come in terms
01:10of how quickly Lorenzo will be picked up by the jet stream and sent towards northern parts
01:16of Europe. And it's at this point that computer models start to diverge. Some computer models
01:23send Lorenzo on a track that pushes it way past the UK very quickly as a deep area of
01:31low pressure towards southern parts of Greenland. Other computer models send Lorenzo as a decaying
01:38area of low pressure into southern Ireland and then southern parts of Britain. But what
01:43we consider the most likely track for Lorenzo at the moment, as an ex-hurricane, is to move
01:50to the northwest of the UK as a typical area of low pressure for the time of year. Now
01:58let's see what that looks like. We're expecting Lorenzo to start to impact the UK through
02:03Thursday and into Friday, and this is the expected position to the northwest of the
02:08UK if Lorenzo moves along this scenario. But because the scenarios are diverging so much
02:16at the moment, there is a lot of uncertainty. And it looks likely that Lorenzo, or at least
02:21the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo, will bring strong winds, risk of gales and some heavy
02:27rainfall to the UK by Thursday into Friday. A lot of uncertainty at the moment. Because
02:33of these different scenarios, it is certainly worth paying close attention to the weather
02:37forecast over the next couple of days as we firm up on the details.
