00:00And thanks for joining the forecast feed.
00:03Meteorologist Bernie Ray, a lot of things to talk about.
00:05We're going to start in the Central Pacific.
00:07We've got what's going to be Moke, I think it's Moke, actually, Moke,
00:13that will swipe, swipe Hawaii.
00:15And I want to get into the Atlantic.
00:17We've not had a hurricane yet.
00:19I think we're going to have one in early September,
00:22but until then it looks pretty quiet.
00:24But I want to begin in the Pacific right now
00:27where we are watching our tropics.
00:30This is what's going to be Moke right here.
00:35Not consolidated yet, although you're starting to see that a little bit
00:39to the south and east of Hawaii.
00:41The other thing to take note of, and this is going to be important,
00:44you can see the outflow of this storm goes,
00:48or this system goes pretty far north.
00:51So while we do think this is going to pass Hawaii,
00:53probably between about 150 to 200 miles south of the Big Island,
00:58it's going to have an impact, and unfortunately, it's going to be rain.
01:03All right, let me show you some of the modeling with this.
01:07And, you know, we've been talking about this for the last couple of days.
01:11So here, let's go back into this evening.
01:15Here is what will be our tropical storm.
01:18Here's Hawaii.
01:19Now, think of these tropical systems as a cork in the stream, right?
01:26The cork is the storm.
01:27You have to figure out the stream flow.
01:29If you figure out the stream flow, you know where the cork's going.
01:32It's really that simple, but it's a little complicated.
01:34But as we talked about all week, the location of this trough,
01:37which is actually associated with Lala,
01:40because it's so far west, you have a trough here, trough here,
01:44and notice what you have, an anticyclonic or clockwise wind flow.
01:51This is our upper high.
01:52And remember, winds around high-pressure systems are clockwise.
01:56So the farther west the high is at the surface,
02:05the better chance that this is going to stay south of the Big Island by quite a bit.
02:13This high is anchored here.
02:14Now, I also talked about last week, if this trough, let's say, was a little farther east,
02:19that would force this high from being here to being over here.
02:23And if the high was a little farther to the east,
02:27you'd get more of a southeast wind flow that would then drive this storm right into the Big Island.
02:32But the fact that this trough remains where it is,
02:37and watch as we go through Friday, Saturday, Sunday, if anything,
02:41it moves off to the west-northwest.
02:43You see that?
02:44This is the trough I'm talking about right here.
02:47Since this is moving to the west-northwest,
02:49this tells me this high is going to stay pretty much at the same longitude as the Big Island.
02:58And because of that, the steering flow won't be out of the east-southeast,
03:03but out of the east, which should then keep this system south of the Big Island.
03:08That's what we're thinking.
03:10And again, as I show you the AccuWeather eye path,
03:13this will stay about 150 to 200 miles south of the Big Island.
03:19Now, the question is, is how strong it can get.
03:22Right now, we have a tropical storm.
03:24I think it's a little tricky.
03:27Let me show you why this may not become a hurricane.
03:32I want to show you the water vapor loop here across Hawaii.
03:37Look at all the dry air.
03:38Here is the system.
03:39And by the way, you can see the circulation.
03:41Look how far north it is.
03:43I think this is the growing area of circulation,
03:46but there is a lot of dry air in here.
03:48And it appears to me like this dry air,
03:50and here's the trough, is coming with the west-northwest flow.
03:53You see that?
03:54Or the wind's coming in out of the north here.
03:56There's a lot of dry air over the islands.
03:58So this system is coming into a dry air mass.
04:01Now, this is good news for the development standpoint.
04:05I'll tell you what.
04:07What concerns me a little bit is I don't see a lot of wind shear.
04:11I'm not saying the wind shear is perfect for development,
04:14but if you look at the wind shear in here, and let me do it this way.
04:18I want to show you the winds of 200 millibars.
04:21So you can see our system right here, Saturday morning, is right in here.
04:28To me, it does not appear to me like there's a lot of wind shear.
04:33It's right in here, and it's in an area of light winds aloft, and it's warm water.
04:40So I would not, we're not forecasting this.
04:43I would not say with 100% that this won't become a hurricane.
04:46We're not forecasting that.
04:48We have a tropical storm.
04:49But it does concern me that the wind shear looks light.
04:53At the same time, you've got a lot of dry air.
04:56So I think they may counteract each other here.
05:01But certainly the good news is that the track is not going to be coming right toward Hawaii.
05:10It's going to stay off to the south, and there's our track.
05:13Here's the big island right here.
05:15So it's going to stay south by about 150 to 200 miles.
05:19That's good news.
05:21Now, the bad news is, when you go back to the water vapor loop, while the center of circulation is
05:28way down here,
05:30look how much the moisture, how far north the moisture goes.
05:34So even if you just eyeball less, this moisture is going to be heading across the String of Pearls,
05:40and especially across the Big Island.
05:43I don't think wind's the big story here.
05:45I think the big story is going to be the rain again.
05:47Is it going to be as heavy as what happened in Lala?
05:51No.
05:52But four to eight inches of rain on the Big Island, and, of course, you've got elevations here.
05:58This is the area that got hit the hardest with Lala, with rain.
06:01And I think, you know, you may end up, we have an accurate weather local storm max of 24 inches,
06:06and I think in these mountains, you're going to get over a foot of rain, and the flash flooding is
06:10going to continue to be a problem.
06:12The time frame on this, let me go back, let me go back here to the track.
06:16So you're going to start seeing impacts as early as, you're going to start getting impacts late Saturday night,
06:23but Sunday, in the Monday, is when you're going to get the bulk of the rain,
06:28and some of it's going to be heavy, and flooding's going to be a problem.
06:31So, bad news, good news scenario, this is going to be a lot farther south than Lala.
06:38Really quickly here, we're going to have to keep an eye on the Atlantic Basin,
06:43because I believe there is a wave that's going to be coming off of Africa later this week.
06:50That may likely be our first hurricane the first week of September.
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