00:00While the Atlantic Basin has been pretty quiet as far as storms are concerned, and there's nothing
00:05at the current time that we're too concerned about, it's been anything but quiet in the eastern
00:11and central Pacific. Of course, Hawaii still recovering from Hurricane Lala that produced
00:17the heavy rain and the massive flooding across the big island of Hawaii. And now we have another
00:24system. We talked about this yesterday on the feed. We have another system that we're anticipating
00:30that will be coming into, or at least close to Hawaii as we head toward the weekend here.
00:39Let me show you what we're dealing with here. I'll put this into play. So first of all, this
00:43is Lala, by the way. Well to the west. Here's the Hawaiian Islands well to the west. That
00:49is moving away. Now, this is going to have some impact. I'll show you why here in a second.
00:53But this is our tropical rainstorm. It was an unorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
00:59yesterday. You could see this getting pretty consolidated now. You'll notice you have this
01:05cluster of what's thunderstorms around the center, but you'll also notice that the circulation
01:10is fairly large with this system. Lala was somewhat compacted as it moved about 20 miles
01:17south of the big island. This is going to be a much larger system, and I am anticipating
01:23that the National Hurricane Center will either name this as a tropical storm or a potential
01:33tropical cyclone at 11 o'clock eastern this morning and start issuing tracks. But this is
01:39going to be a storm within the next 24 hours. I don't think there's any doubt about that.
01:44All right. Now, where is it going, and how strong is it going to be? Well, we'll take a look
01:50at
01:50some of the modeling on this. First of all, let's talk about where it's going to go. We'll be looking
01:56at the American model and also the European model. So I'm using models to help me decide
02:03where this is going to go. We already have an eyepath for this as well. But let's show you
02:08what the modeling looks like here. Now, this is the European model. This red, this is the system
02:15that is a tropical rainstorm right now. This will be a storm within the next 24 hours. But here
02:20it is. Now, right off the bat, let's go forward to this evening. This is Lala. And what Lala has
02:27done is there's a trough to the north that has deepened the trough to the west of the islands.
02:32You also have a trough here and a trough here to the north and east of the islands. And what
02:39is going
02:39to be the steering influence is this, this upper high right in here. Now, at the current time,
02:45by this evening, this high is located just to the north and east of the islands. What this is going
02:52to do is produce a steering flow out of the south and southeast. So this is going to start pushing
03:00what will be a tropical storm later today to the north and northwest. This is European. Let's go to
03:06Friday evening. And you can see there's the movement to the northeast. Now, the key is this. How strong is
03:14this high? And where is it located this weekend? It appears to me that because of the location of
03:23this trough, which is part of Lala, that this upper high is going to be located right around the same
03:30latitude as the big island of Hawaii. Now, that's important, because if that's the case, that tells me
03:38that this this system, which will be Moke, is not going to be headed to the east northeast, but eventually
03:45will curl around and start to do move due east. That should keep this system south of the big island
03:55by about 80 to 100 miles. Lala was about 20 miles off to the south. So it was much closer
04:02system. This we
04:04think is going to stay about 180 to 100 miles to the south. Now, it's going to be a bigger
04:09system than Lala.
04:11It's going to have a larger circulation. And we do think there's going to be, unfortunately, some impacts,
04:16mostly heavy rain on the big island here. But let me show let me continue to take this forward here.
04:22This is the GFS
04:24European GFS. They are very similar with the location of this trough, this trough, and this high,
04:31which will be located right in here. Let's take you to Saturday evening. Again, what do I see? The upper
04:39high is right in here. Right here. Here's the trough. Here's the trough. Now, if this trough from Lala
04:49comes a little farther to the east, that's going to push the upper high from instead of being here
04:59to, let's say, over here. And if that would be the case, that the high is a little farther to
05:05the east, that would
05:06then direct this system right toward the big island. I don't think that's going to be the case. I think
05:11the location of
05:12this upper low being back to the west-northwest is going to allow this high to be far enough
05:19to the same latitude as the big island to drive this system south of the island. That's the thought
05:26process right now. The GFS is very similar as well. Let's go to Sunday evening. And again,
05:32if you look at where the high is located, it's right in here, right about the same latitude of the
05:38big island. And that's why we think this system will be taking a track to the south. Let me show
05:44you the AccuWeather eyepath here so you can see for yourself what we're thinking here. All right.
05:52There it is. A move to the west-northwest. And then with the high located right in here,
05:58that should drive this system more east than north. So we're looking at a passage of the big island
06:04of what we will think is going to be a hurricane. I don't think this is going to be a
06:09powerful
06:09hurricane, but I do think this will get the category one. That's maximum state winds anywhere
06:14from 74 to 94 miles per hour. So it's going to be a category one hurricane passing about 80 to
06:21100
06:22miles south of the big island. The impacts will start being felt with the rain. This is local time
06:28Saturday night into Sunday. How much rain? Enough to cause some problems here. We're looking at four
06:34eight inches of rain with eight to 12 inches of rain over the higher terrain of the big island.
06:41We have an AccuWeather local storm max of 24 inches, two feet. So unfortunately,
06:47flooding rain once again will be a huge problem.
Comments