00:00We've had like five days in a row with showers and storms in parts of New Mexico
00:03and in some areas even more than just five days.
00:07Well, here we have the water vapor loop, the x-ray of the atmosphere,
00:10big zone of lift in the atmosphere, rising motion over Clovis and Roswell
00:14and up into areas around the west side of Texas.
00:17So that's where the thunderstorm risk is today.
00:20And yet again, there's another severe risk including parts of New Mexico.
00:24It's taken about four or five days for this yellow blob day after day
00:29to shift from central and western New Mexico all the way to eastern parts of the state.
00:33A very slow process and some of you have had a big rain surplus in recent weeks
00:38because of a repetitively wet pattern in the southwest,
00:41at least compared to normal for the southwest.
00:43So today, this evening, strong storms break out over the panhandle region of Texas,
00:47far eastern New Mexico in on that.
00:49Less action into midweek.
00:51We get a break, but watch what happens at the end of this.
00:52We're going to go into Thursday and moisture swarms northward out of Mexico
00:57back into west Texas and parts of New Mexico yet again.
01:01So that's going to be tied to Vance, a tropical storm that we'll look at in a moment.
01:05Most of Tuesday will be a lot less active.
01:07This is going to be your driest day in about a week in New Mexico.
01:10There will be some showers that linger from Austin south into south, central, southeast Texas.
01:15Showers, even some thunderstorms Wednesday.
01:17Comfortable dry weather.
01:18A good chance for these rivers to recover a bit.
01:21Here, by the way, is Vance down in the east Pacific southwest of Mexico.
01:25And I'm showing this to you now because that's going to send some moisture back northward.
01:29And this will impact Texas and eastern New Mexico yet again later this week.
01:34Now, the storm core is still going to be way south even this weekend.
01:37But in advance of it, you can see heavy rain breaking out two to four inches in western parts of
01:42Mexico.
01:42In an indirect way, it will send some moisture into west Texas and south Texas
01:47and eastern and southern New Mexico yet again Thursday.
01:49So it's going to be a contributor, at least in kind of a secondary way, to this two to four
01:55inch rain event.
01:55Abilene down to Del Rio later this week.
01:58And that sets us up into pre-Halloween, so Halloween itself.
02:01We have some rain around parts of Texas.
02:04Temperatures just a smidge cooler than the historical average.
02:06Some spots, Memphis actually running a bit warm.
02:08We have a lot of rain into Houston and Austin.
02:10We have a lot of rain in Houston.
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