00:00What about the Cubs and the Diamondbacks?
00:02Another fascinating matchup with a couple of old-timers on the mound
00:06with Gaussman versus Merrill Kelly.
00:08This feels like runs, and a lot of them.
00:12I think both lineups can get to both of these starting pitchers,
00:16and it was a wild series for the Cubs coming from Seattle, Arizona, too.
00:21But I don't trust either of these pitchers or relief pitchers
00:26to limit the offenses here, do you?
00:29I don't at all, and I don't think highly of Merrill Kelly at all.
00:34I know he's had a pretty decent career.
00:36The Cubs offense has been absolutely on fire.
00:40You know, there's multiple ways that we always can look to back
00:42or fade a picture, I should say.
00:45And sometimes it's just one thing.
00:47You're taking a team total.
00:48Specifically tonight, I like Merrill Kelly over 5.5 hits allowed, minus 102.
00:54So he's in the middle of the tough season.
00:56Over the last 30 days, he has a 6-3-9 ERA.
00:58He's allowing a 3-11 Babbitt.
01:01He has a 16% strikeout rate, so he can't punch anyone out of the plate.
01:04As for the Cubs over the last 30 days, they have a 113 WRC+.
01:07That's the fourth best in the league.
01:09They have an ISO at 175, which is the second best in the league,
01:12and they have a 35% hard contact rate, which is 12th.
01:15They also have 201 total hits against righties.
01:17That's the second best in the league over the last 30 days.
01:19You can find multiple ways to fade a picture with Merrill Kelly, whether it's a team total,
01:23a game total.
01:24I'm going with hits.
01:25He could easily give up seven hits in the first three innings and get pulled early,
01:28and then we have a clear over tonight.
01:32Listen, and Gausman is not the pitcher that he once was.
01:35So the idea that he's just going to come in there and dominate is just not realistic
01:40against a feisty Diamondbacks team.
01:43Just took two out of three, right, against the Reds.
01:46And they are more, even without Marte, they're more than capable of putting some runs up
01:51here on the board.
01:53So a total at nine feels a little light to me.
01:56It feels like expect some runs.
01:59Now they did finally, to me, the Cubs, they should have won each of those games in Seattle.
02:04They had absolutely no business, Tom, losing two of three.
02:08And the way they lost them in walk-off fashion, the first two were laughable.
02:13But they did win 19-2 yesterday.
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