00:00There's two places in the Atlantic that we're watching. One that could bring impacts to the
00:04Virgin Islands potentially. Another not so much. So number one, either it develops this evening or
00:12it doesn't. It kind of will have lost its shot because it's moving into an environment that is
00:16not as conducive to development. But it's area number two that we are really watching. I mean,
00:22one, because we're marking as a high risk, but this is also the one that could bring U.S. impacts.
00:26Let me show you why. So first, area number one, our medium risk of development. Here it is on
00:33satellite. Where it is, and also the fact that it is not looking too organized, and where the jet
00:38stream is means it's going to get pushed to the north-northeast. No U.S. impacts. We're good to
00:44go. However, if it gets its act together tonight, could become a tropical depression. Not completely
00:49out of the question. Become Tropical Storm Dolly. That's the next name on the list. But this is more
00:53likely to become Dolly than the first area that I showed you. Also, more likely to potentially be
00:59the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic. We haven't had one yet, which maybe some of you are
01:03saying, yeah, that's to be expected with such a strong El Nino year. But it doesn't mean that we
01:07won't have a hurricane, and this really could be the first one. The more important factor here,
01:12though, late next week, southeast coast of the U.S. Listen up, pay attention. This is your early heads up
01:18that we could see tropical impacts. Again, southeastern U.S., along the coast, specifically
01:24late next week is the time frame that we're eyeing. Let's talk about why. So at this point,
01:30it's just barely off the coast of Africa. But here's the thing. It's the time of year. We watch
01:35everything that comes off the coast of Africa. And if it shows even just a hint that maybe it
01:39develops, we're going to keep watching it, and we're going to tell you about it to give you that early
01:43heads up so that you can be prepared, and we're going to keep watching it and keep telling you
01:47about it. It can take some time because it has a long way to travel. But at this point in
01:52time,
01:53it really is about the formation factors. Does it have the ingredients it needs to form into a
01:58tropical system? What are those ingredients? Well, warm water, at least 80 degrees. Limited wind shear
02:04are tropical waves. They do not like wind shear. They also don't like dry air. You need that moisture.
02:09So do we have those ingredients? Let's talk about it piece by piece. First, the ocean, plenty warm
02:17enough. That's for sure. We're looking at the ocean temperatures compared to historical average here
02:22and looking at the colors that you're seeing, it's right about in line with where it should be or even
02:26warmer, which means it's plenty warm enough for tropical development. We're going to skip ahead to
02:32the dry air now. So here's our tropical wave highlighted. You're seeing a lot of moisture there,
02:37a lot of convection. That's the blues, the whites, the greens. You see some yellow though off to the
02:42west. That's some dry air. Now we would be talking about this wave facing some trouble if that dry air
02:48was working its way into the storm convection. That's not what's happening. Our storm is pushing
02:54that dry air away, which means it has a shot at developing here. Then we look at the wind shear.
03:00So we're looking at future wind shear. Our wave is going to continue to work its way to the west.
03:04Keep that in mind. It's moving into an area of lighter purple from an area of darker purple.
03:10Darker purple is stronger wind shear. Lighter purple, weaker wind shear. It wants the weak wind
03:16shear. It wants the light purple. So it's moving right into an area that is just perfect for
03:21development. That's why we're saying it really has a good shot. But here's the thing.
03:26If it does not develop in this area, it's going to continue to work its way to the west and
03:32it's
03:32going to move into dry air and it's going to move into stronger wind shear. Not good for our tropical
03:38wave. It would struggle. That's when it reaches a fork in the road. If it's able to develop like
03:43we think it does this week, it's going to be stronger. It has more of a shot to go further
03:47to the north away from the U.S. We're in the clear. If it stays on the weaker side, that's
03:52where
03:52it's more likely to move to the U.S. and where it would move into a new area where it
03:57has a chance
03:58to develop and where we could see issues for us here in the U.S.
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