00:00President Putin of Russia has reportedly ordered government intelligence agencies to undermine the
00:03EU from within. This means making people unable to trust each other, causing allies to fight among
00:07themselves, and dividing society. It shows that Russia's hybrid operations are already being
00:11carried out on a wide scale. According to a report by the New York Times, President Putin of Russia
00:15has ordered Russian government intelligence agencies and the military to destroy NATO and
00:20the EU from within by 2026. Among these, Moldova has emerged as a key target of the Kremlin's
00:25strategy. First, let's look at what orders Russia has given. President Putin of Russia has issued two
00:30orders. One is to test the defensive resolve of NATO member states, and the other is to destabilize
00:35Moldova. First, let's see what it means to test the defensive resolve of NATO member states. By its
00:40nature, NATO requires that if any one country is attacked, all NATO member states must intervene.
00:45This serves as a very strong deterrent to war, but since it relies on trust, if a war breaks out
00:50and
00:50certain countries do not intervene, there is a very high possibility that the alliance could collapse.
00:55So, Russia is attacking or conducting operations in various neighboring countries to break NATO's
01:00unity. In fact, U.S. government officials have assessed that, as early as this fall,
01:05Russia may try to test NATO's resolve by launching small-scale attacks against NATO countries.
01:10Right now, Russian drones are frequently violating the airspace of the three Baltic states and Romania.
01:16This also appears to be an attempt to test NATO's resolve. But since I already covered this in a
01:21previous video, it would be good if you watched that video. This time, according to a New York Times
01:25report, there was information about Moldova. It would be good to take a look at this.
01:29Currently, Russia's strategic goal seems to go beyond just gaining political influence over
01:33Moldova and is actually trying to turn Moldova into a completely pro-Russian country. In Moldova,
01:38there is Transnistria, which is a place where Russian troops have been stationed for decades.
01:42It's also a place controlled by pro-Russian forces, similar to how pro-Russian forces were active in
01:47Donbass, Ukraine back in 2014. However, you might have some questions about this. Even in southern Ukraine,
01:53the Russian military hasn't been able to advance as much as they want, so there's a question of
01:57whether Russia can really take control of Moldova like this. In fact, even without a large-scale
02:01invasion of mainland Moldova, Russia already has ways to put pressure on them. The key is Transnistria.
02:08In eastern Moldova and Transnistria, Russian troops have been stationed for a long time,
02:12and pro-Russian separatist forces are effectively in control. For Russia, this region can be used to
02:17continuously apply military and political pressure on Moldova. Therefore, it's not necessarily the
02:22case that Russia must break through southern Ukraine and deploy large ground forces to take
02:27control of all of Moldova. In addition, the connection between Ukraine and Moldova is also
02:31an important factor. In March 2026, an attack by Russian forces on a Ukrainian hydroelectric power
02:36plant caused an oil spill in the Diniester River, and as the contaminated water flowed toward Moldova,
02:40several regions in Moldova experienced disruptions in their drinking water supply.
02:44As areas including Moldova's third-largest city were affected, it became clear that military
02:49operations targeting Ukraine could also directly damage Moldova's basic infrastructure.
02:53A similar problem occurs in the power sector. When Russian forces attacked high-voltage
02:57transmission facilities in western Ukraine, the power grid supplying electricity to Moldova was
03:01affected, and at one point, 70% of Moldova's power supply was knocked out. The reason this situation
03:07is important is because Moldova's energy and infrastructure are closely connected with Ukraine. Even if
03:12Russia does not directly attack Moldova, Ukraine. In the process of attacking Ukraine's key facilities,
03:17Moldova's electricity and water supply can be affected. Moldova has found itself in a situation
03:20where it suffers from the consequences of the war in Ukraine, even though it is not directly at war
03:24with Russia. On top of this, political pressure is also increasing. Russia is utilizing pro-Russian
03:29forces and political networks within Moldova, intervening in elections, and providing financial
03:33support. There are suspicions that Russia is carrying out various operations such as spreading
03:36false information to increase distrust toward the pro-European government. Moldova is pushing for EU membership,
03:41but if domestic politics continue to be divided between pro-Russian and pro-European forces,
03:45the political burden on the accession process will inevitably increase. This is because joining
03:48the EU requires not only legal and institutional reforms, but also political stability and continuity
03:53of reforms. Therefore, it is difficult to explain Russia's pressure on Moldova with just a single
03:57military operation. The key point is that Russia can simultaneously utilize its existing military base
04:02in Transnistria, infrastructure for electricity and water connected to Ukraine, and internal political
04:06conflicts within Moldova. Even if Russia does not deploy large-scale troops across the Moldovan border,
04:11the conditions are already in place for it to continuously undermine Moldova's political,
04:15economic, and social stability. On top of that, Russia continues to interfere in Moldova's elections.
04:20Russian hackers have even tried to hack into Moldova's central election permission system
04:24to manipulate votes. So, we need to look at why Russia is targeting Moldova. First of all, Moldova is not
04:30a NATO member country, nor is it a member of the European Union. Therefore, if Russia pressures or
04:36attacks Moldova, NATO's collective defense will not be automatically triggered. However, if a military
04:40conflict breaks out in Moldova, the security burden on the same countries could change significantly.
04:44Especially since Romania, which shares a border with Moldova, is a NATO member, it is difficult to
04:49separate Moldova's situation from its own security. The relationship between Moldova and Romania is also
04:54an important factor. The two countries have historical, they have close cultural ties, and currently,
04:59there are opinions within Moldova that support unification with Romania.
05:03Maya Sandu, the president of Moldova, also expressed in an interview with the British
05:07podcast The Last Is Politics on January 11, 2026, that she would support unification with
05:12Romania if a national referendum were held. Of course, this does not mean that the unification
05:16of the two countries will be pursued immediately. But it is important to note that if Russia tries
05:19to take control of Moldova or turn it in a pro-Russian direction, Romania is likely to see this
05:23as a serious security issue. This could lead to differences of opinion between Romania and other NATO members.
05:28Countries that are geographically close to Russia, such as Romania, Poland, and the Baltic states,
05:33are likely to see Russia's expanding influence over Moldova as a direct security threat.
05:37In these countries, there may be arguments that stronger measures are needed to prevent further
05:41military actions by Russia. On the other hand, Western European countries may take the position
05:46that, since Moldova is not a NATO member, they should avoid direct military confrontation with Russia.
05:51If this happens, there could be disagreements within NATO and the EU about the level of response.
05:55Eastern European countries may demand military action and additional defense reinforcement to
06:00counter Russia's threat, while Western Europe may seek diplomatic solutions to prevent escalation and
06:04argue for a more limited response. For Russia, not only the pressure on Moldova itself, but also the
06:09emergence of such political debates holds strategic significance. In fact, similar tensions are already
06:14emerging between Russia and Europe over hybrid warfare, such as drone and cyber attacks.
06:19Eastern European countries are demanding a strong response, but in Western Europe, there is caution
06:23about escalating into a direct military conflict with Russia. If a military crisis occurs in Moldova,
06:28these differences in perspective could become even more pronounced. If what Russia is aiming for is
06:32not the physical dismantling of NATO and the European Union, but rather weakening the resolve among
06:37member states, then Moldova becomes a very important area. As the crisis surrounding Moldova grows,
06:42the difference in threat perception between Eastern and Western Europe could widen,
06:45and in this process, the debate over whether to continue supporting Ukraine could also intensify
06:49again. The biggest effect Russia can hope for is a situation where Europe is unable to respond
06:54with one voice, and a significant result that could occur in that process is a reduction in military
06:58and economic support for Ukraine. And there's one more thing we need to consider here. Even if Russia
07:03fails to completely take control of Moldova, it doesn't mean the Kremlin gains nothing. On the contrary,
07:08just by keeping Moldova in a state of ongoing instability, Russia can secure considerable strategic
07:12benefits. If political turmoil continues in Moldova, the EU will have to invest more resources to
07:16maintain Moldova's economic and political stability. Western support is also needed to
07:20strengthen the capacity of government agencies and judicial institutions so that the Moldovan
07:24government can respond to Russia's operation. If this happens, Europe will find itself in a
07:29situation where it has to manage Moldova's internal stability while also responding to the war in Ukraine
07:33and the threat from Russia. Romania will also inevitably face a greater burden. Sharing a border with
07:37Moldova, Romania must consider not only the influx of refugees and border security issues,
07:41but also power outages, cyber attacks, and even military tensions. The longer Moldova's
07:45instability continues, the more Romania will have to strengthen its own air defense system
07:49and border surveillance capabilities. And it may also request more deployment of NATO troops and
07:54surveillance assets. This means that Romania, along with other countries on NATO's eastern flank,
07:58will have to use more military resources to monitor Russia's movements. Naturally, this will affect Ukraine
08:04as well. Ukraine will have to keep monitoring the situation in Moldova to the west while fighting a war with
08:09Russia at the same time. If instability within Moldova increases, Ukraine will have to strengthen
08:14surveillance and intelligence gathering along the border and also continue to prepare for how
08:18Russia might use Transnistria. There's a possibility that some of the intelligence and military resources
08:23Ukraine needs to use on the front lines will have to be diverted to manage the situation in the west.
08:28From this perspective, the outcome Russia wants in Moldova doesn't necessarily have to be
08:32territorial occupation. If Moldova remains unstable, Europe will have to keep managing the issue,
08:36neighboring countries will have to strengthen their defenses, and Ukraine will have to take on
08:40additional security burdens. Russia can continuously tie up Europe's manpower, resources, and political
08:45attention in a specific region at a relatively limited cost. Therefore, when looking at Russia's
08:51strategy regarding Moldova, we shouldn't just focus on when Russia might occupy Moldova, but also on how
08:55long Russia can keep Moldova unstable. Even if Russia does not achieve a complete victory in Moldova, if it
09:01forces the west to keep paying the cost of responding, that in itself can be a strategic achievement for
09:06Russia.
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