- 5 weeks ago
This News Today episode sheds light on the growing public scrutiny of the Indian economy, a key theme in the Mood of the Nation poll.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your prime time destination news,
00:05newsmakers, talking points. It's Raksha Bandhan. Happy Raksha Bandhan to each and every one of you.
00:10Let's tell you what's our big talking point this Friday night. Nepal is on high alert again after
00:16fears of another glacier burst could happen. Top Nepal journalist Kanakmani Dixit is joining me
00:26on what this climate emergency could do and why he believes India, Nepal, China need to come
00:32together. Also the families of missing Indians are appealing for help. All that and more but first
00:40as always let's kick it off with the nine headlines at nine tonight. Race against time to rescue over
00:481400 missing people in Nepal. 587 dead bodies recovered so far. Rescue operations resume
00:56after flood threat eases in the region. Nepal turns down foreign rescue teams offer as debt toll
01:05continues to rise. Seeks financial help through a prime minister relief fund instead. India prepares
01:11to send a tunnel rescue team following Nepal's request. Concerns mount over the number of missing
01:20Indians Indians in Nepal. At least 320 Indians untraceable. 400 Indians stranded safe on the Chinese side.
01:27External Affairs Minister Jai Shankar welcomes 21 chameleons who return from Nepal.
01:35Amidst the growing row over the Valmi ki scam, Karnataka Minister B. Nagendra resigns. Claims he's being targeted
01:43as he's a Dalit. BJP celebrates fall of a wicket. Vows to overthrow the Congress government in 2028.
01:53Vijay for PM chorus grows in the TVK after India Today's Boot of the Nation survey. Today's CM,
02:01tomorrow's PM Vijay posters in Tamil Nadu. Vijay was among the top 3 PM choices in the India Today poll.
02:10Congress claims Penguin India denied publishing Sonia Gandhi's memoir in its original form.
02:16Penguin says they are not the publisher of belonging in India but they are keen and willing to publish
02:22the book. West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari ups the ante against Jadavpur University
02:31student sings Vande Matram outside the university gate. Since time to end threat culture and restore
02:37nationalism, students say that the government should stay out of campuses.
02:44After Nalsar, now another top law college, National Law School of India University convocation cancelled
02:51after students reject demand to publicly invite Chief Justice of India Surya Khan, students to be conferred
02:58with degrees in absentia. And the Pakistan cricket team threatened to halt the second test
03:07versus England after broadcaster Sky Sports interviews the sons of former Prime Minister
03:12and Pakistan captain Imran Khan. Both spoke out about Imran's physical and mental health in jail.
03:24But let's turn to our top story and it remains that devastating tragedy that's taken place
03:29in Nepal over flash floods. More than 540 people are now confirmed dead. At least 1500, many of them
03:38Indian citizens are still missing. And worse still, there's been a new glacial lake warning that's
03:45triggered panic, halted rescue operations briefly and once again put the authorities on high alert.
03:53India today has been tracking this rapidly evolving situation on the ground in Nepal. Our correspondent
04:00Ashutosh brings you tonight's top story from Nepal.
04:10One catastrophe. Rescue teams racing against time.
04:26Then a brief halt after the press 1.
04:41Another threat is beginning to unfold in flood ravaged Nepal.
04:51A day after China warned that another glacier lake outburst could be imminent,
04:55India today has been tracking the developments from ground zero,
04:58bringing you every detail of these unfolding warnings.
05:04Nepal is now on a risk of another severe calamity after China alerts Nepal for another glacier lake
05:11formation in the confluence. Major two rivers where till 27th of morning nearly 2 million cubic water
05:21water has been collected and another three days it is likely to reach up to 5 million cubic.
05:26People living in vulnerable areas have been told to evacuate. Rescue teams had been asked to
05:31stand down as authorities closely monitor the rapidly rising water levels.
05:45The administration is on high alert.
05:57The administration is on high alert.
06:02Here is the moment where the rising waters started creating panic among the locals.
06:14The people are going to lose their mind and the people are on high alert.
06:20We are on high alert.
06:22The local guards are being stressed and moving around the country to a row.
06:25Through a warning, there are so many more in the passage there.
06:25Except for the people that are unable to refuse them,
06:25And the visitors are involved with Skyfire as they are beingあります.
06:30The police are here to go.
06:35Where the people are going to get there.
06:36The police are on high alert.
06:38foreign
07:10But behind this latest threat lies a deeper and more disturbing reality, the extreme fragility
07:15of the Himalayan ecosystem.
07:20The region is increasingly exposed to a dangerous combination of unstable terrain, glacial activity
07:26and seismic forces, creating the conditions for sudden and devastating disasters.
07:48So this region is always a fragile region.
07:50This is the Himalayan region and there is a lot of tectonic activities going on underneath
07:58and if you just look at the higher terrain also, they are not rock solid, they are very
08:07fragile.
08:10The collapse of the glacier on Wednesday had left behind a massive wall of ice and rock
08:14debris, creating a natural blockade.
08:18With the accumulated water still seeking an outlet, the force of the flow has begun carving
08:23through new and unpredictable paths along the Bhotekoshi River.
08:31What began as one catastrophic flash flood has now opened up the possibility of another.
08:40Though rescue ops have resumed again, the situation still remains precarious.
08:56And remember, more than 300 Indians are still missing or uncontactable in this terrible tragedy
09:05that's taken place in Nepal.
09:07I am joined at the moment by Anya Ahuja from New York.
09:11She has her father's brother Deepak Ahuja and aunt Madhu who are missing.
09:15Also joined by Sushmeeta Dutta, her in-laws, aunt and uncle also missing there in Kolkata.
09:22I appreciate you joining us but I want to first say that our prayers are with both of you and
09:28your families
09:28because I know this must be difficult times.
09:31Sushmeeta, you want to tell us first, when was the last time you were able to establish contact with your
09:39relatives?
09:43So, we were able to talk to them on 25th, the day before the tragedy happened and we got the
09:50information
09:50that on 26th morning they are going for the stamping and they will be crossing the border to proceed for
09:56the Kalash Mansalur.
10:03So, from what you know, they were going to cross into the China side on the day this terrible flash
10:15flood took place.
10:16Am I correct?
10:17Yes, yes and the timing was exactly the same.
10:20Were they part of, were they part of a larger group and have you been able to contact anyone else
10:29who was accompanying them?
10:31Yeah, they actually went along with 30, the total group count was 32, 30 were the travelers and two were
10:39the managers of the travel group
10:41and we were not able to connect with any of the other members or their family as of now.
10:51Right, so none of the 32 people you've been able to establish contact with.
10:57Anya Ahuja, your father's brother Deepak and aunt Madhu been missing since 26th August, they were part, I am told,
11:04of the Isha Foundation group.
11:07Have you been able, has the Isha Foundation been giving you constant updates because a number of members of the
11:13Isha Foundation were reportedly in the area and are missing?
11:19Yes, they were part of Group S3 of the Isha Foundation expedition, so they were in the Girong Immigration Center
11:26when the floods happened.
11:28We got an initial email saying that they had gone missing and then other than that they've reached out a
11:35couple times but there's been no information of anyone.
11:42Have they set up, has Isha Foundation set up any kind of helpline for people like you who want more
11:49information?
11:51Not that I know of. The only information we've gotten is from outside sources or from the embassy or things
11:58like that.
11:59The Isha Foundation hasn't really, obviously there are so many other people missing.
12:02We understand that rescue is a slow process but we haven't had any sort of established, consistent communication with Isha.
12:14Sushmita, are you planning or any of your family members planning to go to Kathmandu, to Nepal to perhaps find
12:23out more because is that going to be the next step for many of those whose family members are missing
12:29to actually travel to Nepal?
12:33Yes, yes, actually we are looking into a way where we can at least reach till Kathmandu where all the
12:39rescued people are there in the hospitals is what the information that we have because after Kathmandu, they are not
12:45letting anybody travel.
12:46So we are thinking of a way where we can reach at least till Kathmandu and see if there is
12:51any possibility we can get any information from there because sitting from here we are not getting any specific information.
12:57So we are finding a way where we can reach out there and see what exactly is happening.
13:06Have you been able to establish or touch base with the Indian embassy in Kathmandu?
13:11Are they providing you constant updates, Sushmita?
13:14Yes, we connected with the Indian embassy in Nepal and they took all the details and they provided the update.
13:21But since yesterday evening we are not able to connect with them and nobody is responding to the calls and
13:27we don't have any information as of now from the embassy.
13:35You know, Ania, the only good, one good piece of news is number of people are stranded.
13:41Just as there are more than 300 missing or uncontactable, a number of people are reportedly stranded.
13:48I spoke to someone who's given me more information on that.
13:54Presumably, therefore, there's the hope that maybe they are stranded.
13:58Are you or your family members also planning to go to Nepal?
14:04Yes, the family has, they have tickets to go to Nepal.
14:08We're leaving in the next couple of days.
14:10There's just a lot of visa situations to handle because all of us are in the U.S.
14:15They, my uncle and aunt also live in the U.S.
14:17So it's been a little more difficult to arrange that sort of international travel.
14:22But at this point, I think we are going to be the most effective search party, or at least I'm
14:26hoping.
14:27So we're all, we're going to go to Nepal and see if we can see if and when we find
14:33them, because that's the only goal.
14:39Yeah, you know, Sushmita, I was sent a photograph of, of your relatives.
14:44I think your in-laws, they were on their way, smiling pictures of them on their way to Kailash Mansarovar.
14:53So this must have been a dream for them, a kind of pilgrimage that they wanted to do.
14:59Am I right?
15:00Yes, they have been planning for it since quite some time.
15:04But yeah, they just went in the wrong timing.
15:12Well, all I can say to both of you is that we hope and pray that they are safe.
15:19As I said, a number of people are stranded who haven't been contacted, but we are told that it is
15:25very possible that they are stranded on the Chinese side in particular.
15:29And we hope and pray that you can connect with them sooner rather than later.
15:34So fingers crossed that we'll have some good news to share, or you will have some good news to share
15:41with us in the next couple of days.
15:43I just want to thank you for joining us in this moment of great anxiety for your families.
15:49Thank you so much.
15:53Okay, let me turn from there to a very special guest who now joins me.
15:58He is Nepal's leading journalist, the founding editor of Himal.
16:02Kanak Mani Dixit joins us.
16:04Kanak, appreciate you joining me at this very difficult time for your country there in Kathmandu.
16:10First of all, thoughts and prayers, I want to say, with the people of your wonderful country of Nepal.
16:16What is this tragedy, Kanak, and the death and destruction of these gigantic proportions meant for the people of Nepal?
16:26I believe that we still do not know the extent of this tragedy.
16:31It is massive, and the people of Nepal have been going from tragedy to tragedy.
16:402015 earthquake was a massive blow to our people and to our economy.
16:47Last year, you had in September 8th, 9th, upheaval, which ended up being a political upheaval and arson across the
16:59country that really hit the soul of the nation, hurt the soul of the nation.
17:05And now we have this debris flow and a massive Himalayan tsunami, as it has been called.
17:14And we yet do not know the extent of the dead and wounded.
17:19We're still in the throes of trying to find out what has hit us.
17:24We know the science of climate crisis.
17:27We know the science of global warming.
17:29Clearly, this is linked to that.
17:32But we also know that the demography of Nepal has changed, where the people come to live down by the
17:39riverbank.
17:40The infrastructure is built by the riverbank.
17:43The hydropower, which is seen as the lifeline of our future as an economy, is built along the rivers.
17:50So it is a human tragedy, first and foremost, which is what we are going through right now.
17:56In the days ahead, we'll also have to count the economic, infrastructural and other tragedies.
18:03But for now, we still do not know how many people we have lost.
18:08You know, you're calling it, Kanaka, Himalayan tsunami.
18:14And you're saying that the damage could be even greater and you fear that the dead toll could rise further.
18:21Do you believe, though, that this is, in a way, also a wake-up call to the people and government
18:26of Nepal,
18:27given the fact that, as you said, this is not the first such tragedy in this highly sensitive ecozone of
18:32the Himalayas to occur in recent years?
18:36It's increasingly prone to landslides, to flash floods.
18:40Is this a wake-up call, a kind of tragedy that will finally bring the people of Nepal together and
18:47awaken your government?
18:51If it is a wake-up call, then it is a wake-up call for all of South Asia and
18:57the globe.
18:57Because the tragedy unfolded when a mountain flank on the north side of the Lam Tang Lirung, massive, gave way.
19:09And there was a cascading effect that hit the very grandly built customs point with hundreds of people in there
19:19on the Chinese side, the Tibetan side,
19:22and then cascaded down through the mid-hills of Nepal, taking lives, destroying livestock, destroying infrastructure.
19:34So this phenomena, if there is any blame to be placed in terms of learning lessons from,
19:42then it is something known as global warming and attached to it something known as weakening permafrost.
19:50And added to that an element that covers all of South Asia, which is what we call black carbon or
19:59brown cloud,
20:00which emanates from the industrial centers of northwest subcontinent, settles on the snow, melts the snow.
20:09So all of these things means that we're all in it together.
20:13Nepal was only like the canary in the mine, warning center.
20:18It's warning the rest of South Asia, because what happens in Nepal, whether it is glacial retreat or whether it
20:26is groundwater depletion,
20:28it will impact the Ganga Maidan as well.
20:31You know, you know, Kanak, you're saying we are all in it together, but the fact is, why are we
20:37then not seeing greater coordination between the countries through which the Himalayan mountains run?
20:44I mean, I mean, the entire range, India has lost a number of citizens.
20:48This happens on the Chinese Tibet side, where this terrible glacier break takes place.
20:53The landslide begins.
20:54Nepal suffers the most.
20:56Surely the time has come, therefore, for China, for Nepal and India to come together and work at solutions.
21:06No doubt about it, and solutions have to come across the Himalayas length and breadth.
21:14North and south, i.e., China, Tibet, India, and the rest of us, and east-west from Pakistan all the
21:22way to Bangladesh and to northern Burma.
21:24Because this is a calamity that tells us, talk to each other, Islamabad, talk to Delhi, Delhi, talk to Islamabad.
21:36Beijing, talk to Delhi, to Kathmandu, to Thimpu, to Dhaka, because Dhaka might not have many mountains.
21:43There are some in the Chittagong Hill tracks, but Dhaka is, Bangladesh is impacted, Bihar is impacted, will be impacted
21:50before long because of the...
21:53Because of the rivers, yes.
21:55...what is happening in the Himalaya.
21:56So, yes, the answer to your question is, it has been long since we have been calling for coming together
22:05of the governments.
22:06But if I might say so, the animus, Rajdeep, is so deep, India, Pakistan, and Beijing, Delhi, that that blocks
22:16the pathway for the rest of us, including Nepal,
22:20to be able to tell people and be heard, let's meet, let's talk, this is existential, and billions of people
22:29are going to be impacted ultimately.
22:31So, time to talk is now.
22:33That is where I think some amount of civil society pressure, some amount of academic learning must be injected into
22:44the slipstream in New Delhi, Islamabad, and Beijing.
22:51You know, because, you know, there are also reports, puzzling reports coming in from Nepal that says that the Nepal
22:59government says they don't need external help.
23:01They don't want anyone else to be involved in the rescue and relief operation.
23:07Surely, a tragedy of this gigantic proportion, as I said, surely requires people across nations to come together, financial help,
23:15other forms of assistance.
23:17As I said earlier, a number of Indian citizens have also lost their lives.
23:22Is there any particular reason at the moment that the Nepal government does not seek help from other countries?
23:30I haven't yet fathomed the exact nature of our current government and why it has, likes to show what I
23:41call false bravado.
23:43Because what is required is take as much help as possible, but coordinate it.
23:49And, you know, it is up to the government to coordinate rather than to say we don't need your assistance.
23:56Of course, we need assistance, not just cash, not just goods, but any kind of support for rescue support.
24:05Because there is still need for rescue in Nepal as we speak.
24:08So what is required is proper.
24:11It is true that sometimes you've got a lot of overwhelming international interest and a country like Nepal, much loved
24:19internationally, attract such interest and people want to help.
24:23But the answer is not to say we don't need it and to say we can do it ourselves.
24:28I will tell you two things.
24:30On the one hand, Nepal, by virtue of a country that is so disaster prone from snow avalanches to earthquakes
24:38to floods and debris flows and now breakdown of the permafrost and climate crisis.
24:47Nepal is already attuned to responding to crisis.
24:53Our local government, elected local government representatives are pretty good.
24:57Our civilian police, our armed police force and the army are capable.
25:03However, the challenge before us is so humongous that the more we can get in, the better.
25:10So as I said to you before, we should have taken the help that is offered and to be on
25:16top of coordinating the assistance that comes.
25:19That is where you needed to show your skill.
25:22You know, the question I want to raise, Kanak, is yes, you rightly said that look at the way riverbeds
25:30are changing across the Himalayan range.
25:33Lots of habitation taking place.
25:35We're seeing an increase in tourism.
25:37Pilgrims going to Kailash Mansarova.
25:39But we're also seeing it in Uttarakhand.
25:41Forests being cut.
25:42We're seeing encroachments in Himachal Pradesh.
25:45Is that the time has come in a way for, do you see change taking place given the stakes involved
25:54right across all these sensitive Himalayan states and nations?
25:58Do you see change really taking place?
26:00Will anything really change in our lifetime?
26:05Sadly, no.
26:06Sadly, what I think is when you have a crisis such as in Chamoli, in Josemat, in Sikkim, within Nepal
26:14last year, July 9th, if I remember correctly, in the very same river, a smaller disaster.
26:20Or if you look at the other Bote Kosi, which also saw a disaster in 2016, or if you look
26:28at Melanchi, which blocked the water, drinking water project for Nepal, for Kathmandu Valley.
26:36What I see is that these things happen.
26:39We all get hit up nationally and internationally, but we don't learn.
26:43Because there is a need for us to rise beyond populist governance, where as we speak, including our present government
26:52is trying to show its sensitivity, but there is no long-term learning.
26:56So there is no long-term learning, Rajdeep, within our countries.
27:01India, certainly, with the Char Dham highways that is building and cutting into steep slopes and building the kinds of
27:08infrastructure that should never be built in such geographies.
27:13Nepal is beginning to do the same, although it's arrived here later.
27:17So I believe that, A, we must introspect within each of our countries and really try to go against this
27:28populist attempt to appease the public all the time by infrastructure development, in wrongly placed infrastructure development.
27:37But going back to your earlier question, I would end by saying, Rajdeep, there is no choice but for New
27:45Delhi and Islamabad and Thimpu and Dhaka and Beijing and Kathmandu.
27:50And when we also have to speak about ocean-level rise, so let's bring in Sri Lanka and Maldives as
27:56well.
27:57We must all work on it together with seriousness that has not been evident till now.
28:04Well, you know, it's interesting, it's interesting you're saying that, Kanak, that, you know, we've all got to work together,
28:13but you and I have been great proponents of this South Asian unity.
28:18And this is about SARC, but we haven't even had a SARC meeting now, proper SARC meeting in more than
28:23a decade.
28:24And the fear is if they don't come together now, they never will.
28:28So I thank you for sending out that very strong message.
28:31I hope governments out there in the South Asian nations are listening to you.
28:35We need to come together.
28:36So thank you very much, Kanak.
28:40If I might add one last point, who's going to bell the cat, right?
28:45And where does the cat reside?
28:48Might I suggest that the one country which has the capacity, if it had the willingness for South Asia and
28:56Asia to come together to discuss issues such as the climate crisis,
29:00crisis, it is New Delhi.
29:01So I hope New Delhi also wakes up.
29:05Right.
29:06I couldn't agree with you more.
29:08I think this is a challenge, therefore, for South Asia to at least come together on cooperating, on preserving the
29:16eco-sensitivity of the Himalayas and addressing the larger climate emergency facing this part of the world.
29:22Thank you very much, Kanak Mani Dixit.
29:24Once again, thoughts and prayers with the people of your country.
29:30Let's turn to another big story where a massive debt resolution plan cleared by the national company law tribunal has
29:39triggered a political and financial storm.
29:42At the center of it, the SL Group and the Z Group founder, Subhash Chandra, who's been allowed to settle
29:49creditor claims of over 22,000 crores by paying just rupees 6.5 crores, a recovery of just 0.03
30:00percent.
30:01Several of the country's major banks opposed this dispute resolution plan, while the Congress has slammed this massive lender haircut,
30:11claiming that because Chandra has closed links with the BJP, he's got away lightly.
30:17Subhash Chandra himself insists that the figures have been grossly misrepresented.
30:23What's the real story?
30:25Take a look.
30:36A debt payment plan cleared by the national company law tribunal for businessman Subhash Chandra has sparked a controversy.
30:44Under the plan approved by the NCLT, Chandra, the founder of SL Group, will pay 6.5 crore against creditor
30:52claims of about 22,000 crore rupees.
30:55This would result in a recovery of just 0.03 percent of the claims and a haircut of about 99
31:02.97 percent for the lenders.
31:05The repayment sought from Chandra relates to dues of SL Group entities for which he had acted as a personal
31:11guarantor.
31:12The plan was approved under Section 114 of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code by NCLT member Nilesh Sharma, who was
31:21appointed as the third member after a two-member bench delivered a split verdict.
31:26The payment plan was backed by creditors, representing 80.81 percent of the voting share.
31:33The creditors, those who objected include LIC Housing Finance, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Canara Bank, RBL Bank and Union Bank
31:44of India.
31:47Industrialist Vijay Malia reacted to the NCLT decision on social media.
31:52Malia, who is currently in the UK facing extradition proceedings, said,
31:57If true, many congratulations to my friend Subhash.
32:01Banks and government have admitted having recovered 14,100 crore from me against a judgment debt of 6,203 crore.
32:10Many more borrowers have settled at a fraction.
32:13Indian Debt Resolution Justice, I presume.
32:17The Congress is questioning the repayment plan.
32:20Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi called the NCLT Neta Company Loot Tribunal.
32:26Party MP Jairam Ramesh in a social media post said,
32:29In financial terminology, when creditors are owed money and the debtor pays only part of it, the difference expressed as
32:37a percentage is called a haircut.
32:39This is not just a haircut.
32:41It is actually a mundan and makes the complete mockery of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code 2016.
32:49Subhash Chandra has rejected the criticism.
32:52In a statement issued on Thursday, his office said,
32:55Chandra has not borrowed any money from any lender.
32:58He is only a personal guarantor.
33:01Total claim against Chandra by the objectors of the plan is only 3,992 crore.
33:08Out of this, a claim of 620 crore is settled.
33:12Further, 1,063 crore is offered to be paid by the borrower entities.
33:16The statement added that 22,006 crore represented total claims filed in the insolvency case,
33:24of which claims for 21,696 crore were admitted.
33:31The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code was passed 10 years ago.
33:35The government claims that under the code, creditors have recovered over 4 lakh crore.
33:40But critics say the average recovery rate is 30%, which does not meet expectations.
33:46Bureau Report, India Today.
34:08Hello and welcome once again to the India Today Mood of the Nation Tracker Survey,
34:14a biannual survey brought to you in partnership with C-Voter,
34:19the poll agency that tracks the sentiment in the country on various hot-button issues.
34:26One of the issues that has concerned a number of people in recent months is the state of the economy.
34:34Therefore, we decided to have a separate Mood of the Nation
34:37where we will analyze the data and the numbers with experts.
34:43The mood of the nation on the state of the economy at the moment.
34:47Joining me on the show, S.C. Garg, author and former Finance and Economic Affairs Secretary.
34:53Shankar Iyer, political economy analyst, author, columnist.
34:57And Harsh Gupta Madhusudan, fund manager, Ionic Wealth by Angel One.
35:02Good to have all three of you on the show.
35:05I'm going to kickstart with the big numbers.
35:08Remember, this is a poll done by C-Voter.
35:10More than 1 lakh respondents done over the last month,
35:14along with tracking voter sentiment over this period.
35:19Okay, how would you rate the NDA government's handling of the economy?
35:25That's the direct question we posed.
35:28As per this, outstanding or good is 47.2%.
35:34Average is 18.4%.
35:38Poor or very poor is 28.6%.
35:42So, it's roughly evenly divided.
35:45Good and outstanding, 47%.
35:47And about 46% are saying poor or very poor or average.
35:52Who benefited most from the NDA government's economic policies?
35:58And here is a warning signal to the government.
36:0255.7% believe in this poll that big business is benefiting the most from the NDA government's policies.
36:11Farmers only 8.1%.
36:14Salary class 7.4%.
36:18Small businesses 6.4%.
36:21Daily wage earners are benefiting the most.
36:24Only 5.5% seem to suggest.
36:27So, clearly, a large number of people believe big business is the major beneficiary.
36:32Not small businesses.
36:34Not daily wage earners.
36:36Not salaried employees.
36:38What is the biggest problem India's economy is facing currently?
36:43Unemployment is at 22.7%.
36:46Price rise inflation 18.1%.
36:50And in most such polls, you'll find price rise usually there at the top.
36:55Farm distress 7.3%.
36:57Family income poverty 5.4%.
37:01I also want to put a figure of corruption.
37:044.6% is what many people believe is a concern.
37:10I'm going to give a tracker of how it's changed over the months.
37:14But I want initial remarks from my guests starting with you, Subhash Garg.
37:19Do you see any warning signals in these numbers I have thrown out?
37:24Because on the overall handling of the economy, it's even Stevens.
37:28But when it comes to specific issues like who benefits the most,
37:32a large number of people believe big business benefiting more than small businesses.
37:37What stands out for you in these numbers?
37:40I think the clear message one gets is that the economy is not being handled very well
37:47in the sense that an overwhelming majority of the people don't think that this is doing very well.
37:55Of course, there is an average number of people around 45% or so who say it's fine.
38:02But this big message that which is consistently coming for many years now,
38:08that's the big business which is benefiting from the government policies and the programs
38:14and the people who are supposed to be beneficiaries of the government's redistribution welfare programs
38:21are just very, very marginal and they're declining.
38:25I think that is a very, very powerful and very much concerning kind of message
38:31for the government to my mind.
38:36Yeah, but at the same time, just to say, Mr. Garg, 47% still believe
38:41that the handling is good or outstanding and remember the BJP in our surveys
38:47is consistently along with the NDA scoring about 43% of the vote as well.
38:52So, if you're an NDA voter, you still seem to believe Mr. Modi is doing,
38:56government is doing a decent job.
38:58It's the sort of anti-BJP voters or the anti-Modi voters
39:02who seem to overwhelmingly believe that the handling has been poor.
39:05So, even on the economy, opinion is divided, Mr. Garg.
39:09Quite right. So, this gels quite well with the people's overwhelmingly voting behavior.
39:18If many people still believe that the BJP is the preferred party for being elected or for being voted,
39:28they tend to also give the economy also from that point of view.
39:34So, it's difficult for the people to separate the political preferences from economic preferences
39:43in this kind of surveys.
39:46If they were able to do it, in my judgment, on the economy,
39:51the judgment should be very clearly differentiating.
39:55It should be somewhere close to 70-75% if we were to believe that most people believe
40:02that the government is doing well economically.
40:08You know, the point Shankara here is that there have been several surveys which have put the BJP's performance
40:14in the past at over 50%.
40:16If I look at, for example, in August 2024, the numbers were much better.
40:22So, there has been a slippage from 52.1% then, now to 47.2% in terms of handling
40:28of the economy.
40:29Do you believe that there is any cause of concern, particularly this belief that this is now a government
40:35that does more for big business than small businesses?
40:43Well, Rajiv, two points.
40:45One, the survey shows up a very interesting picture of the Indian economy.
40:50If you look at who's benefiting the top income owners or wealth owners are benefiting,
40:57that 55% is quite a number to sort of work with.
41:02There is a difference between being business-friendly and market-friendly
41:06and governments have consistently struggled with the definition.
41:08So, if you split the economy, the political economy of India into three parts,
41:14the top half seems to be gaining, the middle doesn't seem to have a view,
41:17and the bottom is living off welfare or schemes or proposals.
41:23But to your point, whether the economy is being handled well or not,
41:29let's listen to the voices from the market.
41:32So, in the last one month, six CEOs of FMCG companies have been changed.
41:41The FMCG index is one of the worst performing index on the market.
41:47There is a very peculiar view in the inflation figures where the wholesale price is much higher,
41:54almost twice that of the consumer price index.
41:58If you look at the performance of the Nifty FMCG index, it is among the worst performers.
42:06Even today, the market has shot up.
42:08The IP index has done badly.
42:11And if you look at the protests on the street and the welfare announced by the government,
42:17there is a cause for concern.
42:18How good is the economy?
42:21We will know when the manifestos for UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab are launched.
42:28But on the face of it, even a 47% mark is not good enough for a government
42:37that has been in majority for 12 years has no challenge.
42:42If you look at the response from investors, FDI, FDI net investment, that tells you a different picture.
42:53If you look at foreign investors' investments in the market, in the stock market,
43:00that tells you a different story.
43:02If you look at the rupee, it tells you a story.
43:05So, we cannot, I mean, let me put it this way, to borrow from a Hollywood headline,
43:09it's complicated.
43:11And the government cannot say, Hosanna's people have to recognize that there is a problem underlying the economy.
43:20The Nipi Ayoub's report on employment, on graduate unemployment, is another picture.
43:26So, I would say that this is a cautionary tale for the government to sort of appreciate.
43:33You know, there is an old saying, Rajdeep, that if you live in the Hall of Mirrors,
43:39you will be perpetually blinded.
43:42The signals from outside suggest that there is much work to be done.
43:50Harsh Padhusudan, you want to pick up from what Shankar Ayer said.
43:53Do you believe that the government for much too long is projecting that
43:58sab kut changa hai, that, you know, all is well, we are moving towards a Viksit Bharat,
44:04five trillion economy, but there are concerns on the ground increasingly,
44:08particularly when it comes to how do you provide productive jobs,
44:11how do you raise income levels of a majority of Indians?
44:15Are these issues that the government now needs to confront squarely?
44:20And is that the signal this poll is sending out?
44:24So, Rajdeep, I think we have to take all polling with a pinch of salt.
44:28In the US, a lot of similar polls happen.
44:30When the president changes, Republicans suddenly find the economy to be good
44:35and Democrats find the economy to be not so good and vice versa.
44:39Even in RBI polls, you know, inflation would constantly come at 3%, 4%
44:43and people would expect inflation at 9% or 10%.
44:46So, there is a bit of an art and science to find the nuances from a survey
44:52and what it is telling.
44:53What is very interesting to me from your survey was the price rise concern,
44:58which went from around 27%, if you could show that on the screen,
45:03to about 18%.
45:03Because you can see that most of the concerns are broadly in the same range
45:08as they were in 2022 and 23.
45:12I mean, unemployment 25 to 23, that is within statistical noise,
45:16so I would not take that very seriously.
45:18The other ones are all also 5, 7, 6 in the same range.
45:21But price rise has fallen from 27 to 18.
45:24And we can see that in the data.
45:26I mean, this year is a bit of an exception because of the Iran war
45:29and what Shankar mentioned in terms of WPI being finally higher than CPI.
45:33But the last three years, the average on inflation CPI is 3.2%,
45:38which is below the 4% target.
45:41So, it seems like there is a bit of a lag.
45:43Of course, if you ask people, you know,
45:45has your life been improved better or big business life,
45:49as you saw, that 55% number is more or less consistent
45:52over the last four or five years.
45:54So, a lot of these surveys are also how you frame the questions.
45:57I think the economy's actual performance has to be judged
46:01not on surveys, but on actual numbers.
46:03So, on 31st of August, which is only three days from now,
46:06we will get Q1 GDP growth numbers, right?
46:09So, I mentioned the inflation numbers,
46:11the real GDP year-on-year number for quarter one
46:14will be with us very soon.
46:16We are increasingly every month,
46:18we are getting current account and trade data.
46:21So, I think given the things that have happened in the world,
46:24from the pandemics to two wars with crude prices going up
46:27and the biggest trade war in 100 years,
46:30the fact that India has had around 7% to 8% real GDP growth rate
46:34for the last three to four years
46:36and inflation in the 3% to 4%,
46:38current account deficit almost always below 1%,
46:42this year will be slightly higher,
46:44shows a very solid, rock-solid macro.
46:47I fully appreciate and agree with Shankar's concerns
46:50on net FDI, which have been very low.
46:53I mean, these are part of the global cycles on dollar and AI.
46:57Gross FDI numbers have been close to $95 billion
46:59or record numbers.
47:00The net numbers was very, very low.
47:02So, it seems to me that a lot of the India data
47:05on the external front,
47:07the rupee or the FDI, FII,
47:09is not just an endogenous function,
47:11it's also in part an exogenous function.
47:13The domestic numbers look by and large to be fine
47:16and if you kind of get the use of art and science
47:19of going through these surveys,
47:21it does not seem incrementally better for the government,
47:24you're right, to go from 52 to 47
47:27has to have some political economy concerns
47:29and I'm not a political expert to see that.
47:32But from the data on inflation, unemployment
47:34and the real data that we are seeing as market professionals
47:37and, of course, the earnings that have come out this quarter,
47:40ex-OMC, the earnings of corporate India were quite good.
47:43It looks like a balanced picture
47:45that is going in the right direction.
47:47I think the RBI's measures on 5th June
47:49will stabilize the external account on the rupee.
47:53We are close to FCNR $80 billion.
47:55It's a short-term band-aid,
47:57but it's nonetheless something that was required
47:58given the external front situation that was developing.
48:02I think the economy is on a good footing right now.
48:07You know, that's an important point that Harsh just made
48:12because when I compare it to Jan to August now,
48:16when we did the last tracker,
48:17we've had global headwinds,
48:19the war in the Gulf,
48:20the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
48:22Given all that,
48:24you could argue that you would have expected
48:26a substantial decline possibly in growth numbers.
48:31That hasn't happened.
48:33Inflation is more or less under control
48:35or certainly that's the survey also suggests
48:37people are not suggesting
48:39that inflation is top of the mind at the moment.
48:42Given all that,
48:43do you believe the government could well claim
48:45we've managed to contain the global headwinds?
48:50See, I think the people who are surveyed
48:53in this survey
48:57are essentially, to my mind,
49:00not very well clued on on the economic issues.
49:04They are general voters kind of thing.
49:07And there is a designer issue.
49:10Right.
49:10If you look at the issues
49:12which are uppermost in the minds of the people,
49:16the numbers you displayed for the five ones
49:19total up to only 58.
49:22Then there are many other issues which have,
49:25so it looks that the surveyed person
49:28has been asked to pick up what is the best
49:31or what is the most concerning issue in their opinion.
49:34And there are 48% voters saying other issues.
49:38So if you pick up one,
49:41then you tend to make judgmental error
49:43that what do you want to say as the uppermost.
49:46So a price rise of 23% of people
49:50or 18% people picking up
49:52or unemployment,
49:5523% people picking up
49:57as the biggest concern,
50:00actually if you ask them
50:02to rate three or four
50:05for each one is asked to that,
50:08then you may probably find
50:09unemployment being mentioned by more than 80%.
50:13So I don't think these surveys actually can...
50:17No, I take your point, Mr. Garg.
50:22In fact, I would say
50:23maybe we need a survey of the top 100 market investors.
50:27We need surveys of those in the MSME sector
50:31and maybe those surveys will give us a better sense
50:34of what is the mood on the ground.
50:35I take your point.
50:36I just want to just flag one more interesting little aspect.
50:41We asked in every tracker
50:44who managed the economy better,
50:46UPA versus NDA,
50:49Manmohan Singh or Narendra Modi.
50:51As of now,
50:52Narendra Modi in August 2026,
50:5447.3% say he managed the economy better.
50:58Contrast that with Manmohan Singh,
51:0143.5%,
51:02but significantly in 2024,
51:0657.4% said Modi was managing the economy
51:10better than Manmohan Singh.
51:12Now, that's numbers come down to 47.
51:15So there's almost a 10% decline
51:18in those who believe Mr. Modi handled it
51:20better than Manmohan Singh.
51:21Manmohan Singh was as low as 34.9% in August
51:24versus 43.5%.
51:27So, Shankar, there's a sense
51:28that much like Manmohan Singh faced
51:32in the second term of the UPA,
51:34there are some tougher questions
51:36that are now being asked
51:37of the Modi government
51:38in Modi 3.0
51:40compared to the previous two governments
51:42and therefore Manmohan Singh also
51:44is being looked at by some,
51:46particularly with some sense of nostalgia,
51:49but broadly,
51:50do you believe Modi 3.0
51:52has faced far more difficult
51:54economic conditions
51:55than the first two terms?
51:58Well, definitely,
51:59every regime has its own context
52:02and particularly,
52:03if you look at this government,
52:06it has,
52:06over the last five years,
52:07faced the Ukraine war,
52:09the COVID pandemic,
52:12the war in the Middle East.
52:14All of these are issues.
52:15So, let me sort of reframe that.
52:18I think the Modi government
52:19has been better at managing
52:22the exogenous factor,
52:24which is the outside issues,
52:27and it has done well
52:29to sort of keep the supply chain
52:32for fuel, et cetera, going.
52:34It has kept the supply chain
52:36for fertilizers
52:37and food grain availability going.
52:40Post the pandemic,
52:41it introduced the free ration thing.
52:44And so,
52:45and the state governments,
52:47the parties have also introduced
52:49the lalki bhai,
52:50lalki bhai,
52:50whatever the naming would be.
52:53So, there has been
52:54an income support initiative
52:56that has been
52:59implemented at different levels.
53:01So, you have income support
53:02for the woman voter,
53:03you have income support
53:04for the farmer,
53:05you have income support
53:06for the rural unemployed,
53:07you have income support
53:08for the base of the voters,
53:12the voting base.
53:14What you don't have is
53:16a credible plan
53:18for those who are holding grip.
53:21I mean, I'm not saying this,
53:23the DPI has data
53:25that is sort of questioning
53:27whether enough has been done
53:29on the employment side.
53:30My problem with the government
53:32is simply this,
53:34has it done all that it could do
53:37to raise resources?
53:39So, if you take out
53:41the 2.87 lakh note
53:42that the RBI has given
53:44to the government,
53:45would its fiscal deficit
53:47or fiscal austerity
53:50look better or worse?
53:52Would the government
53:54have done better
53:55to divest from PSUs
53:59which are doing well?
54:01Does the government
54:02need to own
54:0380 and 89% of shares?
54:06Surely, nobody is going
54:07to run away with LIC
54:08even if there are
54:10conspiracy theories.
54:11Should it not be
54:12list some more
54:13of those shares?
54:14Those are the questions.
54:15If you raise the resources,
54:17you will find the programs.
54:19As of now,
54:20across state
54:21and central government,
54:22there are roughly
54:2325 lakh vacant posts.
54:25And these are not posts
54:27about which are just
54:28sitting on the side.
54:29And these are posts
54:29for police.
54:30These are posts
54:31for teachers.
54:32These are posts
54:33for health care professionals.
54:35Those posts
54:35are not being filled.
54:36Now, if you ask
54:37this question in parliament,
54:39you would be said
54:39that this is a state subject.
54:41Now, obviously,
54:42now even if you have
54:43800 and 50
54:44or 900
54:45or 1200 MPs,
54:47this question
54:47will receive
54:48the same answer.
54:49So, what are we doing
54:50about the oversight
54:51on governance?
54:52Those are the questions.
54:54Forget the central
54:55public sector units,
54:56Rajdeep.
54:57The state public sector units,
54:59which in quite a number,
55:00don't even file
55:01their returns.
55:02So, these are issues.
55:03How do you manage?
55:04There are two task forces
55:06for regulatory
55:08reform.
55:09Where is that?
55:10Do I have
55:11a situation
55:12where I have
55:14less permissions
55:15than yesterday?
55:17Suppose I want
55:17to build a power plant
55:19or build a hospital.
55:21If 10 years back
55:22or 5 years back
55:23I was asked
55:24to get 90 clearances
55:26or 110 clearances,
55:28is it at 50 now?
55:29Is it at 30 now?
55:31Have we improved
55:32the process?
55:32Is it less time consuming?
55:35So, the proof
55:37of the pudding
55:37really is the introduction
55:39of the deemed
55:40clearance principle.
55:41I will leave
55:42it at that.
55:45Right.
55:46Right.
55:47You know,
55:47Harish,
55:48quick one minute
55:49on that.
55:50Do you believe,
55:50therefore,
55:51that if this
55:53comparison between
55:54Modi years
55:55and Manmohan Singh years,
55:56Manmohan Singh years
55:57also,
55:58the second term,
55:59there were lots
55:59of global headwinds
56:00that he faced.
56:02the Modi years
56:03have also faced that.
56:04Do you believe,
56:05as Shankar is saying,
56:06that we've handled
56:06the external shocks
56:08better than we've
56:09handled internal
56:10situations,
56:10that we still haven't,
56:12many of the states
56:12are facing huge
56:13revenue deficits
56:14and there is
56:16little sign
56:17of any change
56:18there.
56:18A quick answer.
56:19No,
56:20very quickly,
56:21I think,
56:22I agree,
56:23more disinvestment
56:23can be done.
56:24This year,
56:25I think,
56:25with IDBI,
56:26we'll finally
56:27cross the stated
56:28number,
56:28which we had not
56:29done for many years.
56:30Nonetheless,
56:31fiscal devolution
56:32to states
56:32have increased
56:33over the years.
56:34So,
56:34I don't think
56:35there is any
56:36automatic way
56:36to devolve
56:37more revenue
56:38to the states
56:39per se.
56:39So,
56:40that is about
56:40the state capacity
56:41of states.
56:42More generally,
56:43on the unemployment
56:43point,
56:44I see there's
56:44a very interesting
56:45piece in Financial
56:46Times just last
56:47week.
56:47There's 350 million
56:49gig workers in
56:50China.
56:51China used to
56:52publish an
56:53unemployment rate
56:53for the graduate
56:54youth and then
56:55it stopped
56:56publishing the
56:56number and
56:57changed it.
56:58So,
56:58you see,
56:58unemployment is
56:59not a blue-collar
57:00problem in India.
57:01It's a white-collar
57:02problem where
57:03people want
57:04government permanent
57:05jobs in an
57:06office setting
57:07immediately after
57:08graduating.
57:09Now,
57:09we do not have
57:10those kind of
57:10jobs.
57:11No economy has
57:11those kind of
57:12jobs.
57:12So,
57:13unemployment also
57:14needs to be
57:14understood the
57:15way in terms of
57:16income generation
57:17and the kind of
57:18permanent job
57:19security that
57:20people naturally
57:20desire.
57:21They are not
57:22always in
57:23consonance.
57:24So,
57:24I'll just simply
57:25say that,
57:25of course,
57:26Dr.
57:26Manmohan Singh's
57:27term,
57:27whenever there
57:28are economic
57:29headwinds,
57:29some nostalgia
57:30is normal again.
57:32People have
57:32that with Bill
57:32Clinton in the
57:33US every now
57:34and then.
57:35My only point
57:36is the structural
57:37reforms that have
57:37happened in terms
57:38of GST,
57:39IBC,
57:40RERA,
57:41etc.,
57:41with all of
57:42their quibbles,
57:43such structural
57:44reforms were
57:45perhaps not
57:46done in
57:46UPA1 and
57:47UPA2.
57:48Maybe they
57:48were not a
57:49majority
57:49government,
57:50maybe there
57:51were coalition
57:51politics,
57:52political
57:53imperatives
57:53there,
57:54but that was
57:55more of a
57:56global capital
57:57kind of story,
57:58mostly UPA1
57:59and then UPA2,
58:00as you rightly
58:01mentioned,
58:01at headwinds,
58:02whereas in NDA1
58:03and 2,
58:03there were
58:04structural reforms.
58:05NDA3 has
58:06seen a lot of
58:06headwinds,
58:07and I think
58:07let us see
58:08what happens
58:08in the coming
58:08years.
58:12Okay,
58:13I'm going to
58:13leave it there.
58:14As I said,
58:15it's fascinating
58:15to see how
58:17these economic
58:18concerns will
58:19play out
58:19politically,
58:20will that
58:21affect election
58:22and voter
58:23behavior,
58:24and is there
58:25a sense that
58:26the feel-good
58:26factor,
58:27which perhaps
58:28existed a few
58:29years ago,
58:30is not there
58:31at the moment,
58:32and perhaps
58:32that's one of
58:33the warning
58:33signals that
58:34the government
58:35is facing.
58:36It's an issue
58:37of perception
58:38as much as
58:39it is of
58:40the reality
58:40on the ground,
58:42the perception
58:42that there
58:43isn't that
58:44kind of feel-good
58:44about the
58:45economy at
58:46the moment.
58:47I want to
58:47leave it there.
58:48Thank my
58:48guests for
58:49joining us
58:49on this
58:50Mood of the
58:50Nation
58:51economy special.
58:52Thanks for
58:53watching.