00:00Recently, the CIA Director headed to Russia, and he gave a warning to Russia, telling them not to do anything
00:05reckless.
00:05It's a situation similar to when the CIA Director flew to Russia exactly three months before the outbreak of the
00:10Ukraine war.
00:11It seems like a worrying future is about to unfold.
00:13According to a report by CBS in the U.S., a U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster III transport
00:18aircraft departed from Andrews Air Force Base near Washington on the 23rd pass through Riga, the capital of Latvia, and
00:24arrived in Moscow.
00:25On board was CIA Director Ratcliffe.
00:27Director Ratcliffe reportedly stayed in Moscow for about eight hours before returning home.
00:32This was Director Ratcliffe's first visit to Russia.
00:35In particular, this is the first time since January 2026 that key officials of the Trump administration have visited Russia.
00:41However, the problem is that there are mixed opinions about why the CIA Director visited Russia at this time.
00:46A very shocking report has come out. It's from the Wall Street Journal.
00:50The Wall Street Journal, citing well-informed sources, reported that Director Ratcliffe visited Russia at this time because Russia appeared
00:56to be preparing to attack NATO countries, and he was there to deliver a warning not to attack.
01:01Those NATO countries being discussed are the Baltic states.
01:04Experts have described this visit as highly unusual.
01:07Both countries handled the schedule, purpose, and even who they met with in complete secrecy, which experts have called highly
01:13unusual.
01:13In that situation, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that the main purpose of the visit was to warn against
01:18attacking NATO member countries, there is growing speculation that Russia may really be trying to escalate the war.
01:24The reason people are saying this is because right before the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the CIA Director also
01:29visited Russia.
01:30The war in Ukraine broke out in February 2022.
01:33But in November 2021 then, CIA Director Burns visited Russia to warn them not to attack Ukraine based on intelligence.
01:41But as you all know, three months later, they invaded Ukraine.
01:45It's a similar situation now.
01:46In fact, U.S. government officials are assessing the possibility that Russia could launch limited attacks against NATO member countries
01:52as early as this fall to test NATO's willingness to respond.
01:56According to a recent U.S. intelligence assessment, there are concerns that even as the war in Ukraine continues, Russia
02:01may adjust the intensity of its attacks to gauge the level of response from the alliance, rather than engaging in
02:06a direct, full-scale war with NATO.
02:08The period that U.S. government officials are focusing on is known to be from this fall to 2029, and
02:13during this time, Russia has a wide range of options it could choose from.
02:16These range from cyberattacks to the deployment of small ground forces, as well as various full-scale war scenarios.
02:22In any case, from NATO's perspective, any of these options would indeed pose a threat.
02:26In addition, President Putin's current situation is also something the U.S. is paying close attention to.
02:30Russia is bearing a significant military burden in the war in Ukraine, and the economic pressure from the prolonged conflict
02:35continues to mount.
02:36However, there is information suggesting that Russia may be considering additional military options, rather than ending the war.
02:42U.S. government officials are concerned that in this situation, President Putin may believe that the West is growing weary
02:47of the war in Ukraine, and might try to test NATO's unity.
02:49In particular, considering that the military resources of the U.S. and Europe are being deployed to various conflicts and
02:54security issues at the same time,
02:56it is difficult to rule out the possibility that Russia may see this moment as an opportunity for new provocations.
03:01This is also why the Baltic states are repeatedly mentioned.
03:03Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all NATO member countries and share direct borders with Russia.
03:08The scenario that U.S. government officials are concerned about is that a small clash or an attack on infrastructure
03:13in this region could escalate into a situation that tests NATO's ability to respond.
03:18In fact, President Kitanas Nostra of Lithuania has stated that there is intelligence indicating that Russia may be preparing limited
03:24attacks on key infrastructure in the Baltic states or Poland.
03:27Latvia has also warned that the next few months to a year could be a critical period for security in
03:30the Baltic region.
03:31Amid such circumstances, a very important report has also emerged.
03:34This is a report from Bloomberg News.
03:36According to the Bloomberg News report,
03:38an increasing number of Russian officials believe that President Vladimir Putin may ultimately choose to use tactical nuclear weapons as
03:44a last resort against Ukraine.
03:46And the report stated that for President Vladimir Putin, a worse outcome than continuing the war would be losing it.
03:52So an extreme response is considered possible.
03:54However, there is no evidence yet that Russia is preparing to launch nuclear weapons at Ukraine.
03:59It appears that within Russia, there is a growing perception that if they are going to lose to Ukraine anyway,
04:03it might be better to use nuclear weapons.
04:05Of course, Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center, says that the risk of Russia using tactical
04:11nuclear weapons is extremely low and that the political cost of breaking the nuclear taboo would be very high.
04:15He concluded that as long as Moscow still has room to escalate tensions using conventional weapons, such as intensifying missile
04:21attacks, there is little motivation to cross the threshold of using nuclear weapons.
04:24In fact, the biggest weakness of the Baltic states is that they are simply small countries.
04:28Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have recently increased their defense budgets to more than 3% of their GDP and are
04:33working to strengthen their military power.
04:34But because their populations and economies are small, there are limits to the number of troops and equipment they can
04:38secure.
04:39The total population of the Baltic states is about 6 million with Lithuania at about 2.8 million Latvia at
04:44about 1.9 million and Estonia at about 1.3 million.
04:46Because the population itself is small, it is difficult to maintain a large military force for a long period of
04:50time.
04:50Currently, even if you combine all the active-duty troops of the Baltic states, there are only about 38,000.
04:55In particular, they are significantly lacking in heavy equipment and air force capabilities.
04:59Without having their own independent tank force, Lithuania is the first among the Baltic states to push for the creation
05:04of an armored unit,
05:04and they have decided to introduce 44 German-made Leopard 2A8 tanks.
05:08However, with this scale, it is difficult to face the large armored forces of the Russian military for an extended
05:13period.
05:13They also do not operate their own fighter jets, so securing air superiority heavily depends on support from NATO allies.
05:18Of course, the Baltic states are aware of these military weaknesses, so they have been rapidly increasing their defense budgets
05:23recently.
05:24They are also investing in expanding their troops and securing artillery and drone capabilities.
05:27However, even with strengthening their military power, it is difficult to reach a level that can counter Russia in a
05:31short period of time.
05:32Especially in countries with small populations, securing enough troops is structurally constrained.
05:37For these reasons, there are assessments that if a large-scale Russian attack occurs,
05:40it could be much more difficult for the Baltic states to hold out independently for a long period like Ukraine.
05:44Therefore, if an extreme situation really occurs where Russia invades the Baltic states, it seems that NATO's response would be
05:50unavoidable.
05:51Since the Baltic states are NATO member countries, if a Russian military attack occurs,
05:55a collective response at the alliance level would inevitably be discussed according to the principle of collective defense.
06:00The problem is that from this point, the scope of the war could expand beyond Ukraine to a direct clash
06:04between NATO and Russia.
06:05This means it could become World War I too.
06:07If a situation arises where Russia and NATO are directly engaged in combat,
06:10the question of whether the United States should also intervene militarily will immediately be raised,
06:14and the possibility that a regional conflict in Europe could escalate into a global military crisis will also increase.
06:18The situation in the United States is especially important.
06:21Currently, the U.S. is deploying significant military resources not only for the security of Europe, but also in the
06:25Middle East.
06:25In fact, the United States is currently bogged down in the Middle East.
06:28If a large-scale war breaks out in Europe while tensions continue in the Middle East,
06:32the U.S. will have to deploy its limited troops' weapons and intelligence assets to multiple regions at the same
06:36time.
06:36If military support for Ukraine continues, the demand for various military supplies could increase even more.
06:42What this means is that from the U.S. perspective, it may become difficult to concentrate its military power in
06:47one region.
06:47There's an even bigger problem here.
06:49At the moment when the United States and Europe focus on the conflict with Russia,
06:52we also have to consider the possibility that China could expand its military actions in Asia.
06:56If China misjudges the situation where America's attention and military power are focused on Europe,
07:00it could greatly increase military pressure on Taiwan or in the South China Sea.
07:03Even if it doesn't lead to an actual war, if large-scale military exercises measures close to a maritime blockade
07:08and massive activities of aircraft and warships happen at the same time,
07:11the United States will face a difficult situation where it has to choose which region, Europe or Asia,
07:16to deploy more forces to even during the Middle East war.
07:18The U.S. lacked enough forces to project into Iran, so it had to pull some of its forces from
07:22the Asia-Pacific region.
07:23But if conflicts break out in both the Middle East and Europe, it could create a very troublesome situation.
07:27For this reason, the most important thing right now is deterrence that prevents war itself from breaking out
07:31rather than how to respond after an actual war has started.
07:34It's important to make Russia firmly believe that the military and economic costs it would have to bear
07:37if it attacks a NATO member country would be extremely high.
07:40It's also important for NATO to maintain military forces that can respond immediately to defend its allies
07:44and to strengthen air defense, troop presence, and intelligence surveillance capabilities in the Baltic region.
07:49At the same time, the United States must maintain sufficient military response capabilities
07:52not only in Europe but also in the Indo-Pacific
07:54in order to reduce the possibility of miscalculation by China.
07:57The key to deterrence is not actually starting a war
07:59but making sure the other side chooses not to attack.
08:02We must ensure that Russia does not doubt NATO's willingness to respond
08:05and also make it clear to China that the United States and its allies
08:07have the capability to respond simultaneously in multiple regions.
08:11What is needed now is not just preparing for war
08:13but continuously showing the other side
08:15that the cost they would have to pay if they start a war is simply too great.
