- 5 weeks ago
India’s 7.8% GDP growth has sparked a BJP-Congress war of words. On today's show, Marya Shakil examines the political claims and what the numbers reveal about the economy.
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00:07Good evening, you're watching To The Point with me, Maria Shaquille.
00:10The headlines we are tracking this hour.
00:12Prime Minister Modi's blistering attack on Congress over India's GDP growth.
00:17He says,
00:18Joot ki gunj, brigade spreading gloom.
00:22Congress questions GDP numbers, which shows economy growing by 7.8% in quarter of,
00:28first quarter of, financially at when it's set.
00:57Prime Minister Modi's power grip with two superpowers.
01:01At the SCO summit, double handshake with Xi and Putin steals the show in Bishek.
01:09Prime Minister raises issue of cross-border terror and urges to end terror funding.
01:20Petty, Pakistan is at 8 again.
01:23Pakistan PMO posts picture of SCO leaders but edits out Prime Minister Modi from the image.
01:31Shahbaz Sharif gets into damage control mode, posts full image after the backlash.
01:42The Supreme Court directs to quash all FIRs against CJP protesters.
01:48Delhi cops can file fresh FIR against those with criminal antecedents.
01:55CJP calls off September 5th protest.
01:58Government welcomes CJP's move.
02:05The death toll continues to mount in Nepal.
02:08Over 1,000 dead bodies recovered so far.
02:12Nearly 4,000 people still missing.
02:15Rescue operation underway in full swing.
02:31India's economy has opened the new financial year on a high with GDP growth beating expectations
02:37and clocking 7.8% in the April-June quarter.
02:41But this is more than just an economic number for the Narendra Modi government.
02:47It is proof of resilience, momentum and the strength of the Indian economy.
02:52Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called it an Herculean task and a Herculean feat
02:57and has even hit out at the Jhut Ki Goonj Brigade,
03:01accusing them of spreading misinformation about the economy.
03:05For the opposition, the growth numbers raise bigger questions about jobs, incomes and what it means for ordinary Indians.
03:14It has called it the greatly distorted picture.
03:18India's latest GDP number has quickly become a political flashpoint
03:22with the government celebrating a strong economic run
03:25and the opposition questioning whether that growth is reaching every Indian.
03:30Before I bring in the guests to discuss these numbers, nearsayers and the narratives, here's a report.
03:51India's economy has delivered a stronger than expected performance.
03:56GDP grew 7.8% in April-June quarter,
04:00giving the 2026 and 27 financial year a strong opening.
04:11The number is significantly above the RBI's 7% forecast
04:15and keeps India ahead of several major G20 economies.
04:19And this was not growth riding on a single engine.
04:25Manufacturing expanded at 9.2%,
04:28services surged at 10%,
04:30while investment, measured through gross fixed capital formation,
04:34jumped 11.9%.
04:37The numbers point to broad-based momentum,
04:40even as the global economy navigates uncertainty.
04:43The chief economic advisor called it continued resilience.
04:47What we are witnessing is continued resilience
04:50in the Indian growth performance.
04:52I think that's the key message here.
04:54The quarterly real GDP numbers in general,
04:56after a slight lull towards the latter part of 2024-2025,
05:03has picked up quite well
05:04and has weathered global uncertainties rather well.
05:08And Prime Minister Modi wasted no time
05:10in putting a political stamp on the numbers,
05:13calling 7.8% growth a herculean feat.
05:37But the economic headline soon became a political flashpoint.
05:41Just months ago, Rahul Gandhi had warned of an economic tsunami.
06:10Now the BJP is using the 7.8% numbers to answer that warning,
06:14turning Rahul Gandhi's economic tsunami prediction
06:17into a political counter-attack.
06:21And then over the years,
06:24people just fell in a 소리 and gasp,
06:26the damage of smoke and dust
06:29were seven to four sides of the Neresa.
06:31When all these things began to do,
06:35and all these things began to do,
06:37the country got a 7.8% growth.
07:03But the opposition is refusing to read the GDP numbers as a clean bill of economic health.
07:08Congress has called the figure a greatly distorted picture of the economy while putting the spotlight on unemployment and whether
07:16headline growth is translating into a better deal for ordinary Indians.
07:39So 7.8% is a headline grabbing number and a strong start to the new financial year.
07:46But the real test will be whether this growth translates into more jobs, stronger incomes and greater purchasing power for
07:54Indians.
07:56For now, the government has a number to celebrate and the opposition has a warning that the headline does not
08:01tell the whole story.
08:04Bureau Report, India Today.
08:32Is this genuinely broad based growth or one exceptional quarter?
08:41Well, you are indeed right that, you know, 7.8% was a lot stronger than many of us expected.
08:49This is not just RBI that's stronger than I expected as well.
08:54Yes, also that it is being driven by a whole bunch of different sectors.
08:58So it's not just one sector doing especially well.
09:01Manufacturing did well, but so did many services segments like financial services.
09:06And even you also had construction doing very well.
09:09So there are a lot of things driving it.
09:12It's also driven to a significant extent by investment.
09:17So, of course, obviously, government investment, public investment is doing well, but the private sector is also investing reasonably.
09:23So then it is very broad based growth.
09:27So that is the good news.
09:29Now, is this an especially strong sector quarter and will it be sustained if that's what you're asking?
09:37Well, do remember that the environment where we are in is very, very disrupted.
09:43We do have a war right next door in Iran, and that impacts many things.
09:47You know, it's not just our energy supplies where everybody talks about it.
09:51Do remember the Middle East is a big export market.
09:55There are 10 million odd Indians living there and they send remittances and they do various things which have an
10:01impact on the economy.
10:03And then, of course, there are the whole disruptions with the Trump tariffs and not just the ones that deal
10:09with us.
10:10Do remember that disrupting the world economy generally is bad for us because it means, you know, the rest of
10:15the world is not conducive for exporting.
10:18So in this environment, doing the 7.8 is good, no doubt.
10:24Sustaining it, however, will require us to continuously adjust and work very hard.
10:29I mean, we have the additional problem of an El Nino, which is impacting us as well.
10:33So this is not an easy place in which to sustain these kind of growth rates.
10:38I would be quite happy with anything in the range of 7%.
10:42You know, since you spoke about El Nino, the Brent crude has spiked after the U.S.-Iran exchange of fire
10:48and a strengthening El Nino threatens the monsoon.
10:51If those risks materialize, how much of this 7.8% actually survives?
10:59Well, 7.8% is for that quarter.
11:02So that is for that quarter.
11:04The question is, what will it be in the subsequent quarter?
11:08So it's not about surviving.
11:09But the question is, will the momentum be at the same level going forward?
11:13Now, I think I would be very surprised if there's no impact of the El Nino on agriculture.
11:20So I think there will be some impact of that.
11:23Maybe not as bad as many people have feared.
11:26Or what has happened, for example, in Europe, where, you know, there's a massive drought.
11:30So I think we dodged the extreme drought bullet.
11:34But I think there will still be some impact on agriculture.
11:38The monsoon is still playing out, so I can't really put a number on it.
11:41But it is something we need to look at.
11:44And yes, you just mentioned oil prices have spiked again.
11:47We have managed to keep going by keeping a very diversified source of energy coming to us from, whether it's
11:56from Venezuela, even the U.S., of course, Russia.
12:00And it's not been easy.
12:01You know, there's always threat of sanctions and all kinds of other threats.
12:07And, of course, the threat of tariffs as well.
12:10So in this environment, you know, at some point, we will have some things that we will have to take
12:16on our chin.
12:17But I think given the circumstances, we are doing very, very well.
12:21Okay, since this has led to a massive political slugfest as well, Congress President Malik Arjun Kharge has called this
12:29the three U's.
12:31Unemployment, unbearable price rise, unbridled inequality.
12:35And I said that retail inflation is at a 19-month high, even as GDP posts its best print in
12:44years.
12:44How do you explain this growth and kitchen table pain rising together, both rising at the same time?
12:53Well, I mean, irrespective of what those numbers came in at, we would have heard exactly these comments.
12:59So I would just put this aside because, you know, frankly, I wouldn't like to respond to non-serious political
13:07insinuations.
13:08What I will say is, let's look at the hard numbers.
13:12The government's PLFS numbers, by the way, it is the best unemployment indicator there is.
13:18There is no other, you know, serious survey in the country.
13:22And it clearly suggests that unemployment rates, both urban and rural, have slowly been drifting downwards.
13:30So there is no doubt of that.
13:33There is an issue with the segment of educated unemployed, which I can discuss that separately.
13:40But I think overall unemployment has, if anything, come down.
13:45Prices, by the way, yes, you know, look at the amount of pressure on energy prices.
13:51I think given that the feed through to the domestic economy has been quite moderate.
13:56And even when they are talking about inflation going up, do remember that this is, you know, inflation in the
14:05four to five percent range.
14:08You know, till a decade ago, our inflation used to be in the eight to 12 percent range on a
14:14routine basis.
14:15So the fact that people are debating inflation in the four or five percent range itself tells you, you know,
14:22how much progress we have made.
14:23You know, it would be great if we didn't have this external pressure.
14:28But I think given the circumstances, oil prices and generally prices of food have remained reasonably well contained.
14:36These numbers, Mr. Sanyal, have been fueled by the manufacturing sector.
14:42So my next question will be on that.
14:44Manufacturing operating profits jumped from 9.4 percent to 21.3 percent in a single quarter.
14:50That's a massive surge.
14:52But private consumption grew only 7.1 percent.
14:55So who is actually benefiting from this growth?
14:57Companies and their margins or the ordinary household?
15:02Well, I mean, the fact of the matter is that, you know, it's good for everybody if the manufacturing sector
15:08is becoming more profitable.
15:10Do remember that the manufacturing sector is also an employer.
15:15It is also these profits are what belongs to a large numbers of shareholders.
15:23So I think this socialist idea that there is, you know, the it's something between the households and the and
15:32the large corporations.
15:33I am sorry, that is not how the world works.
15:36Even if you wanted to talk about the households, do look at the amount of purchases they are making.
15:44I mean, car sales are at record highs.
15:49You know, sales of all kinds of things, air conditioners and all kinds of other items are doing well.
15:54So I think this idea that households are somehow in stress is not true.
15:59Okay, since again we are seeing this kind of statistical gymnastics charge.
16:05This is coming from Jairam Ramej, who has called this data statistical gymnastics.
16:10And there isn't this allegation of change in methodology to flatter the number.
16:17Is that a serious charge you want to answer? You need to answer?
16:23I don't think any serious economist is looking at this data and saying that it's not credible.
16:29We did have a problem with methodology till last year because the base year had not been updated.
16:36But incidentally, a matter that I had been raising as well.
16:38And the reason we were unable to update the base year was a very simple reason.
16:44You see, every decade we update the base year at the beginning of the decade.
16:48We could not have done it in this decade for the simplest reason.
16:51Those were COVID years.
16:52And so the beginning of the decade years were not typical years.
16:57So we had to wait till 2024 before we got a typical year that we could use as a base
17:02year.
17:02Now, once we got that, we of course updated the base year.
17:06And at the time that it happened, I did warn everybody that, look, don't complain now that we have updated
17:12the base year, which is what you were complaining about, that the GDP growth rate will look good.
17:18Because when you update a base year, what happens?
17:20You get rid of the old dying sectors from the basket and you add in, you know, relatively younger, higher
17:28growth sectors.
17:29And this is precisely what has happened.
17:31So I don't think anybody should complain.
17:34This is this is this is we did exactly what the IMF and others were asking us to do.
17:39And I think no serious economist is going to complain about this.
17:44The GDP is very visibly strong and it's showing through incidentally in other areas as well.
17:49Look at car sales numbers.
17:50Those are not from government.
17:53Corporate profitability is doing decently well.
17:55Those are not government numbers.
17:57So I think, you know, under the circumstances, but even in in any circumstance, 7.8 percent GDP growth rate
18:03is a very strong one.
18:05As I said, I will be personally expecting it to temper going into the next few quarters.
18:11But even then, I think you will get a very decent GDP growth rate print for the year as a
18:17whole.
18:18OK, Mr. Sanyan, my last question to you.
18:20And this is with regards to what the concerns are.
18:25Record low FDI, stagnant manufacturing employment and a mismatch between corporate revenue growth and the GDP growth as evidence that
18:34the headline figure doesn't really match the lived economic reality.
18:38So if the macro data and the micro data are telling different stories, which one should the country actually trust?
18:48They are not telling you different stories at all.
18:51I just heard we just you yourself just pointed out on one hand that, you know, manufacturing companies are seeing
18:57record profits.
18:58And then you're complaining that the manufacturing sectors are not doing well and they're not employing people.
19:03There is no evidence of this. They're just, you know, not presenting data at all as a as a evidence.
19:13And in fact, they will on one side say that, you know, companies are doing well.
19:18And then in the very next breath, say they are not doing badly.
19:21You need to decide which side of this micro macro data you are.
19:26They are clearly in line with each other. As I said, the manufacturing numbers are doing well.
19:31They are showing up in GDP numbers. They are also showing up in corporate profitability.
19:36They're also showing up in all the association numbers on sales of various products.
19:42But I don't know how they are not in sync.
19:47All right. Mr. Sanjeev Sanyal, I appreciate your time.
19:50Thank you for joining us and sharing your views on the GDP numbers.
19:53And let me bring in Manish Tiwari now, Congress MP and former minister.
19:58Mr. Tiwari, I appreciate your time.
20:00India just posted 7.8 percent growth, beating every analyst's estimate.
20:06Congress has spent years demanding the government do better on the economy.
20:10Now that it has, why is the Congress answer to attack the number instead of welcoming it?
20:20Maria, there is a need to understand the Indian economy in a certain perspective.
20:27So 7.8 percent growth is wealth growth.
20:32But it is 7.8 percent for whom?
20:36Whom is the economy working for?
20:40Is it working for the ordinary people of India?
20:44Or is it only working for a very select few, what is called the creamy layer at the top?
20:53And let me contextualize the three problems that the Indian economy has from the perspective of 1.44 billion people
21:04who call India their home.
21:07The first is that the wholesale price index and the consumer price index are at a record high.
21:15What this translates into is high cost of daily essentials like onions, like tomatoes, like other vegetables and cereals of
21:30daily use, in addition to articles, which are essential in order to continue with the everyday activity of life.
21:41Number two, India has a serious job crisis.
21:46And that job crisis manifested itself on the 20th of July, 2026, in the protests, which we saw at Jantar
21:56Mantra.
21:56It was not only about a paper leak, but the underlying frustration, the underlying causes were because of serious economic
22:09stagnation, whereby people are either unemployed, be unemployable, or see underemployed.
22:18And I can substantiate this with numbers.
22:22The third is the crisis of income inequality in the country.
22:28And in fact, that is the most serious problem, because the richest 10% in India hold 65% of
22:36its wealth.
22:36The top 1% hold 40% of that 65% and the bottom 50% hold only 15%
22:46of India's wealth.
22:48So, therefore, GDP numbers, which governments exult over, are not a real mirror of the real economy, which impacts the
23:01day-to-day living of people.
23:03You know, Mr. Dimari, you have raised a number of questions with regards to the Indian economy.
23:07The point you made, particularly, why isn't it creating jobs or easing prices?
23:12And that's a valid question, certainly.
23:15Don't you think that's a better question to raise?
23:17That is what the Congress should be raising, rather than declaring the entire data as fake?
23:24Well, I am not going to get into a he said, she said, Maria, because the Indian economy and its
23:33impact and implications on people is a very, very serious issue.
23:38And allow me to flag one more equally germane and critical challenge, which confronts the Indian economy.
23:47And that is with regard to the fact that despite all the concessions which this government has given to corporate
23:55India, private capital expenditure is not kicking in.
24:00And I'll give you some numbers to contextualize.
24:03In the financial year 25-26, public capital expenditure, which really has been driving the Indian economy, was 11.21
24:15lakh frauds.
24:16In 2026-27, government upped this number in the budget to 12.2 lakh frauds, while private capital expenditure is
24:29only 11.44 lakh frauds in the financial year 25-26.
24:35Now, why does this number become important?
24:38This number becomes important because out of a 50 lakh fraud budget, or a 52 lakh fraud budget, which the
24:46government has, it's spending 12.2 lakh frauds on public capital expenditure in order to create capital assets.
24:56Now, that money actually goes away from critical spends on education, on social equity, on gender empowerment, if the private
25:10sector would have stepped up to the plate.
25:12And therefore, if you look at the broader side of the Indian economy, which stands at almost $4 trillion, for
25:23corporate India, a private capital expenditure to be only in the range of 11.44 lakh frauds in the past
25:34fiscal, is something which is extremely concerning.
25:37Because it means that the engines of the Indian economy are really being fired by government capital expenditure, which could
25:47be better used elsewhere for the purposes of defense, for spending on critical and emerging technologies,
25:56which will determine the remaining 74 years of the 21st century on social justice or on social empowerment spends.
26:08So, therefore, that is another critical challenge.
26:11And that's why it brings me back to from where I started.
26:15Who is the Indian economy doing well for?
26:19For the people of India, or a very select few, the creamy layer at the top?
26:24Since you highlight that, let me share some data.
26:27Manufacturing, operating profits jumped from 9.4% to 21.3% in a single quarter.
26:34That shows that corporate India is booming.
26:36Private consumption grew barely 7%.
26:38That's the real story.
26:41Profits racing ahead of paychecks.
26:44So, the gap between the haves and have-nots is also growing.
26:47So, where is the real India story then, Mr. Tiwari?
26:52That is the real India story.
26:54You know, in fact, you have really painted it for everybody very articulately.
27:00And let me add and supplement to it.
27:02So, any economy has five fundamentals.
27:06Savings, investment, production, consumption, and employment.
27:11And now let me give you some figures which contextualize each of these fundamentals.
27:17The savings-to-GDP ratio in 2010 was 34.3%.
27:23In 2025, it is down to 32.6%.
27:28The investment-to-GDP ratio in 2007 was 42%.
27:33In 2025, it is 35%.
27:36Your production-to-GDP ratio in 2006, which is the share of production in the GDP of India, was 17%.
27:46In 2025, it's dropped to 13%.
27:49So, the absolute share of manufacturing as a percentage of India's economy dropped by 4% between 2006 and 2025,
28:01and it has barely recovered in 2026.
28:04Your consumption-to-GDP ratio in 2010 was 65.7%.
28:10In 2025, it is 67.4%.
28:14A lower consumption-to-GDP ratio is always good for the economy for the simple reason this means that money
28:23is either going towards national savings or it is going into investment rather than into consumption.
28:30Your worker-to-population ratio in July 2026 was 52.5%.
28:36According to government, 64.3 crore people are currently employed, but 44% of them are in agriculture.
28:46And in a developed economy, the benchmark is that 80% of your population or your workable population should be
28:55employed.
28:56So, therefore, to exalt over a quarter of one number, and that also completely out of context, just goes to
29:06show as to how desperate, if I may use that word, the government is to profile itself by selectively quoting
29:15data, which does not reflect the true state of the economy.
29:18There are certain geopolitical realities also, Manish Tiwari.
29:22The world is dealing with a U.S.-Iran conflict, crude oil shocks, global trade tensions, and most major economies are
29:29slowing down or stagnating.
29:31And in that environment, if India has delivered 7.8% growth, the fastest among major economies, isn't that a
29:38genuine achievement?
29:42Well, Maria, this is not the first time that we've dealt with global challenges.
29:48From 2004 to 2014, India's economy clocked 8% year on year, and that was at the 2005-2006 base
29:59rate.
29:59In fact, government has been shifting goalposts, changing, you know, base years in order to try and present a more
30:09rosy picture of the economy.
30:10And at that point in time, you have the unprecedented global economic meltdown, which was considered to be the worst
30:19crisis that the world economy had faced after the 1929 Great Depression.
30:24And then, of course, you had the Eurozone crisis.
30:27So, therefore, to hang your quote on the peg of global crises and say that, oh, in spite of that,
30:36we've clocked 7.8%, and that also with a changed base year, whereby the weightage which is given to different
30:46products or different set of products has also changed considerably.
30:53Absolutely. It's not, in my estimation, a proper way of looking at the economy.
30:59So, while 7.8% may work, you know, for the creamy layer, for those who are at the top
31:08of the pyramid, people who are at the bottom of the pyramid, who are struggling to find employment,
31:15who are barely able to make two ends meet because of high inflation, as the late Sushma Sarraj used to
31:23keep saying,
31:24that is exactly what the situation is today.
31:29And so, therefore, I don't think that the state of the economy has any reason to exult.
31:37I think the triple challenge of lower employability, high cost of living, coupled with the fact that you have an
31:49economy which is being fired by public capital expenditure,
31:53are challenges, are deep structural challenges that you need to address, and they can't be papered over by the gloss
32:03of a certain two-run numbers,
32:06which tend to look rosy, if I can put it in those words.
32:11Mr. Tiwari, my last question to you. But the base year revision was recommended by an independent technical committee, not
32:17dictated by the government.
32:19So, if you're alleging that the base year itself was changed to manufacture a good number, then what will be
32:24the real assessment of the Indian economy?
32:26I mean, how do you assess the Indian economy there?
32:29So, therefore, this has been an ongoing debate, Maria, for a very, very long time.
32:34You see, it is correct that the base year on which the Indian economy is measured keeps getting revised periodically.
32:43But what is important is that are you attaching enough weightage to those products and commodities,
32:51which actually impacts the daily lives of the common person?
32:55Or are they getting skewed in terms of those sectors, for example, mining, for example, certain other very heavy industry,
33:08but niche sectors,
33:10which may be registering, you know, a more than normal or a more than average growth or a high growth
33:17rate even.
33:17But that does not translate into the benefits of that economic growth actually flowing to the people of India.
33:28So, that is really the challenge.
33:30The question is, do these numbers or do these GDP figures, and I'm not talking of the current quarter, but
33:40GDP figures as a whole,
33:42do they reflect the true state of an economy?
33:46And in my humble estimation, they do not.
33:50Manish Tiwari, Congress Member of Parliament, really appreciate your time.
33:53Thank you for joining us.
33:54Joining me now is Professor Rajiv Kumar, economist, author, and former Vice Chairman of Neeti Aayog.
34:00Professor Rajiv Kumar, really appreciate your patience here, sir.
34:04You heard, Mr. Manish Tiwari, a lot of allegations coming in that this is not really the real picture of
34:09the Indian economy,
34:10and that it's only for a select few.
34:13And as far as the lived realities are concerned, it is about inflation and other challenges.
34:22Hi, Maida.
34:23Wonderful to be here and good to have heard Manish saying what he did.
34:28But, you know, let me just start by sort of saying that, you know, in this January to June period,
34:35our exports, you know, grew at least about 8 or 9 percent, you know, over the previous year.
34:41Why I bring in exports is because exports are generally employment intensive.
34:46And when exports increase, you get, you know, employment growth as well, because those are the sort of commodities that
34:52we export.
34:53So to say that this growth is only benefiting the top layers and so on and not reaching down, I
35:00don't think that's a fair statement to make.
35:03Moreover, what's happened now is that our manufacturing growth this quarter has shown an increase of 9.2 percent and
35:137.8 percent in the previous quarter.
35:15Now, when manufacturing increases as well, despite the automation and the AI, et cetera, employment increases as well.
35:23So manufacturing and same thing for services, you know, a double digit 10 percent growth rate of services sector.
35:30You just can't be wished away as saying that it doesn't matter to anybody else.
35:34So, you know, there is an overall broad based GDP growth that we are seeing today.
35:39And I think the most pleasant surprise of all was a turnaround in investor sentiment, because if you notice what
35:47is called the gross fixed capital formation and a complicated word for, you know, private investment, that's shown an increase
35:55of 11.8 percent, you know, in this quarter, which has taken everybody by surprise.
36:00Because, you know, because, you know, we had thought that investors will wait to see the uncertainties come down, to
36:06see the turbulence come down, both in the global and somewhat in the domestic market.
36:10But no, here you are, you know, that the investor sentiment has been has been turned.
36:16So I think overall, it is not it is not fair to deny what is, you know, what is what
36:23is what is sort of, you know, staring you in your face.
36:27I mean, there are areas where we can discuss and talk about, et cetera.
36:31But you should give the credit to where it is due, 7.8 percent GDP, 8.2 percent gross value
36:40addition is something to reckon with, especially in these times when the world is going through what it is going
36:47through.
36:48Yes, you know, because of the global headwinds, certainly this will be seen as a huge achievement.
36:54But the Congress says that the GDP actually stands for greatly distorted picture, that this is not the real picture
37:02because of the number of questions that are being raised here, which is largely to do with, you know, weaknesses
37:09which are inherent.
37:10And also the private investment largely being depressed, you know, the consumer confidence also being sluggish.
37:21Yeah, but you know what, this is exactly what I'm trying to say, that private investment, yes, was tepid last
37:27year, this quarter, it was, you know, NMEG 5.8 percent.
37:31But now this year, private investment has grown by 11.8 percent.
37:36But to reinforce that, Mayra, I think, you know, the commercial bank credit growth to the, you know, to the
37:43industrial sector, which was about 7 percent between 2014 to 2025, very weak, has suddenly surged 15 percent in April
37:5426 and 19 percent in June 26.
37:57Now, this cannot happen unless there was a demand from the industry, you know, for capacity expansion in investment.
38:05And more, this is further reinforced by the fact that the manufacturing sector growth, you know, the highest growth rate
38:11there is that of the capital goods sector, which are required for investment.
38:16So investment has been triggered, my own hunch is that, you know, the GST simplification, you know, has actually, you
38:24know, in some sense, awakened the animal spirits in the hope that demand will go up.
38:30And demand weak is, you know, what, I mean, you know, the private consumption demand has grown at, I think,
38:367.8 percent.
38:37You know, it's not, it's not jumping up at 10 percent and so on, but 7.8 percent, no account
38:43is, you know, is weak.
38:44And public capex and public consumption, you know, there was an argument being made that is growing all on the
38:50basis of the public expenditure, not true any longer.
38:53You know, because, so therefore, I think, you know, again, I repeat myself that, you know, when you see a
39:00good thing, let's recognize a good thing.
39:02Okay, I have just enough time for my last question here, Professor Rajiv Kumar.
39:06And are you seeing this as a genuine broad-based growth story or perhaps just an exceptional quarter?
39:16Not an exceptional quarter because the previous quarter has been revised to 8.6 percent and this you've got now
39:227.8.
39:23What I'm, what I'm scared of is that inflationary, you know, pressures are beginning to pick up, especially in the
39:29food and the commodities sector.
39:31You know, sugar and milk, et cetera.
39:34Now, that inflationary pressure will perhaps demand from the RBI that your interest rates go up and that might make
39:42it difficult to sustain this growth rate, especially in the investment in the coming quarters.
39:48So, not a flash in the pan, but, you know, nothing to be complacent about and your eyes have to
39:54be focused on how to maintain this growth moving forward.
39:58Professor Rajiv Kumar, pleasure having you on my show, sir.
40:01Thank you so much for joining us.
40:03The September 5th showdown in the national capital is now off.
40:07The CJP has withdrawn its protest call after the center assured the Supreme Court that it would honor its commitments
40:14to the protesters,
40:15including on FIRs linked to the July 20th Jantar Mantar Agitation, a move being hailed as a major breakthrough.
40:26So, what really played out?
40:28Will this pave the way for a lasting solution or resolution?
40:32I am being joined by CJP's co-convener, Swarov Das.
40:36Swarov, you announced the September 5th, you know, India Gate to police at quarter March because the center had failed
40:46to honor the 25th July commitments that ended the Jantar Mantar Agitation.
40:52What specifically changed today that made you withdraw it in the court rather than wait to see if the three
40:59-month compensation window and FIR closure actually happens on the ground?
41:07See, Maria, I think what has happened today is historic and historic in true sense, not the ones that our
41:13media channels run.
41:15Every decision that this government takes is historic and that is portrayed so by the media.
41:20However, today is actually a historic day because the Supreme Court has used its extraordinary powers under Article 140 of
41:28the Constitution
41:29and quashed all FIAs across the country, which were lodged against protesters, students and young people for their agitation.
41:37And not just that, the Supreme Court has protected them from any future targeting or harassment.
41:45The Supreme Court has also clarified that if any FIAs have been left out from the list that the union
41:52government and these BJP and NDA rule states have provided to the court,
41:56then upon identification later in the future, those FIAs too will be covered by this judgment of the court.
42:04Along with this, the union government, we had asked them to make a statement before the court
42:09that they would honor the commitment on compensation for the families within a set deadline of three months.
42:17Because there were some issues that, you know, because education is under concurrent list,
42:23there needs to be a systemic policy when it comes to students' suicide.
42:27Therefore, three months were asked for and in the negotiations that were held,
42:32we told the government that they have to get this recorded by the Supreme Court and give it judicial sanctity
42:38because after this, it becomes an order that the Supreme Court has now passed to the Senate
42:42to credit the bank accounts of these families within three months.
42:46That too has been fulfilled.
42:48So both our demands for which we wanted to take out this peaceful protest march have been fulfilled
42:53and therefore we don't see a need to continue with this march.
42:57It's a historic day, Maria, because nothing like this.
43:00It's a John Doe quashing order.
43:03It's a John Doe quashing order which has never been passed in the last 80 years of our independence.
43:08It's the first time that the Supreme Court has done this
43:11and it has done this because the Gen Z, the young generation, asked for it, demanded for it.
43:18You know, you have said something very interesting
43:20because the Supreme Court certainly has given judicial cover to the government's assurance
43:24on compensation for families of students who lost their lives.
43:28You know, you have been at it, demanding it for really long.
43:33Now, tell me, what will the CJP do if the money does not reach bank accounts by December?
43:39I don't think the government will make that mistake, Maria.
43:43There is no chance of making that mistake.
43:45I can assure you through this show that there's been a great progress ever since we announced the march.
43:54We know there are a number of families that have been verified already.
43:58Their bank accounts have been called for.
44:00There are some families that are still unverified.
44:03And I'm sure in the next two to three months, they will be able to finish that also.
44:08And there's no chance that the government will take any chances with us.
44:12As far as the FIRs go, they have been quashed.
44:15Okay.
44:16You know, sort of the court quashed FIRs nationwide,
44:20but allowed Delhi police one fresh case against roughly 2,873 people identified by facial recognition
44:28as having serious criminal antecedents at Jantar Mantar.
44:32The CJP has said that it never opposed action against those who committed heinous crimes.
44:38Do you accept that exception as fair?
44:41Or do you worry it will be used to reopen cases against ordinary student protesters?
44:48There's no chance that any ordinary student protester will be harassed in the future.
44:52Big for two reasons.
44:53One, all the states and the union government have written in their affidavit that they won't do so.
44:59So there's sanctity to it.
45:01There is, they can't be lying on oath.
45:03Number two, the Supreme Court has also recorded that in their judicial order.
45:07So violating that would be contempt of court, right?
45:11And at the same time, when it comes to 2,700 plus hardened criminals,
45:16we have constantly been asking the government to tell us, to give us an answer why these people are out
45:22in the public
45:23if they have been accused of such heinous crimes.
45:26They must have gotten bail from some courts and that's why they are out free in society.
45:30So number one, that.
45:31And number two, if at all, we have never been unclear about this,
45:37if at all these people with criminal antecedents of heinous nature of committing some heinous crime have done some kind
45:46of violation of law,
45:48which is of heinous nature in these protest sites, then the government is free to investigate and prosecute them.
45:55But the government has to give us proof.
45:59They have to give us, they have to show material and video proof as to how they have come to
46:04such a conclusion.
46:05I'm sure 2,700 are identified.
46:08There will be probably be few people who might have committed some heinous crime there.
46:13But as per our knowledge, no heinous crime was committed in any of the protest sites in Delhi.
46:18And heinous crime would mean rape, murder and things of that sort.
46:22Okay, you know, Saurav, you told the bench the order gives judicial sanctity to the government's assurances.
46:28Does that mean that the chapter on FIRs is closed for CJP?
46:33Or will you keep monitoring state police and central agencies for any fresh targeting of July protesters?
46:39No, of course.
46:40I mean, from day one, we have been with every protester.
46:43You know, Malia, post-25 July, when we called off the protests from Jantar Mantra
46:48and the nationwide protests that we were going to hold.
46:51We have been in touch with the government delegation day in and day out.
46:56We have held several multiple-level talks with high-level delegation.
47:00I was home in Pondicherry three days back.
47:05The government delegation flew down to Pondicherry to meet me and, you know, talk about these issues.
47:10So, since day one, we have been pressuring the government to take care of the protesters,
47:17to not target them, not harass them.
47:19It was because of our efforts that some of these states, you would know,
47:23that Delhi, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Gujarat,
47:27all these states brought out notifications which assured withdrawal of cases
47:32and no future targeting of any protester.
47:36We even decided the language of those notifications, Maria.
47:39It is to that extent that we have worked to protect our protesters.
47:44The FIRs are concerned.
47:45They are quashed.
47:46They do not exist anymore because the Supreme Court has done so.
47:50But if there's any issue with any protester, we'll always stand by them and we've been doing so.
47:55Okay.
47:55You know, Dharmir Pradhan's resignation on 25th July was called a big victory.
47:59With FIRs now quashed on a compensation process recorded by the Supreme Court,
48:04what remains on the CJP's original charter?
48:07Exam reforms, paper leak accountability or a wider political project?
48:12And is the organization now a protest platform or a political party in waiting?
48:18A question that has been asked repeatedly, but let me ask again today.
48:21A question that has been asked repeatedly and we have answered repeatedly,
48:25that at the moment we are a public pressure group.
48:28We want to remain so.
48:30We've been very effective, I feel, as a public pressure group.
48:33I mean, the Supreme Court has passed an order that it hasn't passed in the last 80 years, right?
48:38It's a big, big win for the young people of this country.
48:41As far as our original charter concerns, we went to protest to restore a minimum level of accountability,
48:48answerability in the government.
48:50That culture was brought back, right?
48:52Number one.
48:53Number two, we wanted immediate accountability to be fixed.
48:57And that was of the minister and persons who were leading the NTA.
49:01And that has been done.
49:02Number three, we wanted reforms in the law.
49:04To some extent, that has also been done by the government under our pressure.
49:09Number four, the larger holistic reforms that were suggested.
49:13Some of those have been implemented by the government.
49:16A lot of them have not been.
49:18However, those policy interventions, we will continue to talk with the government and give our feedback.
49:24There's a high-level committee that they have made again post-2024.
49:29We look forward to interacting with them as well.
49:32At the policy level, we do want to intervene and we are sending and we will send our ideas to
49:38the government
49:38to make sure that the system changes, right?
49:42Okay.
49:43Okay.
49:44So, Aravdas, really appreciate your time and congratulations for the victory in the court today.
49:48Of course, the court said that it acted keeping students' futures in mind.
49:53That's all from me on this edition of To The Point.
49:55Thanks so much for watching.
49:56So, let's go, let's go.