- 1 week ago
It’s been a long offseason, but we finally made it to a Washington Commanders game week! Nothing will come easy for Washington this year, but it all starts with their clash against Philadelphia on Sunday at 4:25pm! What’s your prediction for Commanders vs Eagles?
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00:00Coach Quinn is changing things up a little bit this year.
00:04Typically, he's been employing a weekly captain system, Cakes.
00:10Sounds like a lot of work.
00:12A lot of work.
00:13Get track of it.
00:13He's announced who the captains are for offense, defense, and special teams.
00:18He went the more traditional route, in my opinion,
00:21and just named season-long captains for offense, defense, and special teams.
00:25Does he really want to sit down and look at a grid like,
00:28who have I named in week four?
00:31Just name three or four captains.
00:33Yeah, just name them.
00:33And they did that.
00:34It's not like kids, right?
00:36Nobody really wants to be the captain, do they?
00:39I mean, I guess it's an honor.
00:40No, it's a big deal.
00:41But you don't want to have to walk out in the middle of the field before the game.
00:44No, no, wrong.
00:45Big deal.
00:46You think?
00:46Big deal.
00:46Oh, yeah.
00:47Big deal to be a team captain.
00:48Probably.
00:49I mean, it's definitely an honor.
00:50No, I think it's an honor.
00:52It's a big deal.
00:52But I'm sure it could be a pain.
00:54I don't know.
00:54It's a big deal.
00:55When I coach, the kids always wonder, can I be captain?
00:58Can I be captain?
00:58Not cut out to be a leader.
01:00Yeah.
01:00I mean, you're talking about kids.
01:01I'm a natural-born leader.
01:02No, for adults, college kids, even high school athletes, it's a big deal to be a captain.
01:06I understand the honor, but the actual doing part, it's a big deal.
01:11Go out there for a coin toss.
01:12It's a big deal.
01:13No, it's more than the coin toss.
01:15So the offensive captains for the season.
01:18What else is it?
01:19Well, there's a ton.
01:20You just looked upon at a different level when you're a team captain.
01:23I said that I acknowledge the honor, but I'm saying that.
01:26I'm sure there are certain things you have to do.
01:28Maybe you organize, maybe you have conferences with the coach.
01:32You help when he decides breaks or what kind of things you need to focus on.
01:37Maybe you have team meetings with the captains.
01:39I mean, those kinds of things are normal.
01:40The captain usually is the one who confronts and talks to the ref about that.
01:46In-game, for sure.
01:47In-game, that's a big deal.
01:49There's a lot.
01:49It's a big deal to be a captain.
01:50So that way no one on the team is just bothering him, complaining, and then maybe get screwed
01:54by him.
01:55The captain's kind of the liaison.
01:57So the offensive captains for the season are Jaden Daniels and Terry McLaurin.
02:01No surprises there.
02:02Defensively, maybe, I don't know, makes sense.
02:05So Frankie Lou Vu and Jeremy Reeves, which I think is just so awesome the way Reeves works
02:11his way from a guy just constantly fighting to be on the roster, a special team superstar
02:17to now, like, a starting safety for them.
02:19It's a fantastic job for Jeremy Reeves.
02:22And, of course, Tress.
02:23The Tress, sir.
02:24Special teams captain.
02:26Big deal.
02:27Obviously.
02:28Has he been the special teams captain for a few years?
02:31Well, they would do it weekly, so I'm sure he was a bunch.
02:33Gotcha.
02:35So we still have the long-term injuries.
02:38No need to talk about those.
02:39We know those.
02:40The ones that we're concerned about are kind of the guys kind of, you know, on the bubble
02:44for week one.
02:46Armstrong's out.
02:47He'll be back for week two, of course.
02:49The suspension.
02:50Adafi Owe is the big one.
02:52He did take part, take it for what it's worth, in yesterday's walkthrough.
02:57Still a question mark, though.
02:59Still has a shot to play.
03:01That one very much in the air.
03:02It would be great if he's active and can play.
03:05Caleb on chase on.
03:07Has practice in full.
03:08Starting back last week, he is expected to be available, Cakes.
03:13Of course, there were some question marks about guys like Nick Allegretti, but he's been
03:16back.
03:17It looks like he's going to be a go.
03:20So we should be relatively at full strength based on who is available.
03:29They did sign a wide receiver, Van Jefferson, ultimately to the practice squad.
03:34He was released, you know, seven or eight, nine days ago, whenever that was.
03:39Took some time, but he did come back.
03:41So that's good.
03:42So some real depth in the wide receiver room.
03:45Obviously, now most of the focus is the week one opponent.
03:51You look around, the lines typically between four and a half and a five and a half.
03:56Last I saw on FanDuel was five and a half.
03:58Maybe it's changed.
04:01Models generally have Philly winning in the mid-20s to high teens.
04:06So not necessarily a super high scoring game.
04:09Total is 44 and a half.
04:11And the spread I see is five and a half on ESPN.com.
04:14Yeah, so obviously for Washington, it's going to be their goal all season.
04:19First and foremost, protect their superstar.
04:23Do I feel like week one is going to be rough in the NFL because guys aren't playing in the
04:26preseason?
04:27Could be.
04:28Hasn't it been that way the last couple of years?
04:30You can see some uneven performances.
04:31Sure.
04:32Teams trying to find their way through the first few weeks.
04:34I mean, certainly with Washington with two new coordinators, you could work out the kinks,
04:40guys learning new systems.
04:41Obviously, David Blau bringing in the offense.
04:46Going to be more under center.
04:49Maybe some more two tight ends stuff.
04:52You know, just can't wait to see what they unveil.
04:55Terry and a lot of pre-snap motion.
04:58That's going to be exciting.
04:59And I know that they're, you know, kind of banking on not putting any of that on film yet.
05:05Did they say 10 targets per game for Terry McLaurin?
05:08That was what David Blau said kind of early in the process.
05:11If anybody were to bet on that, I'll take the under.
05:13No, I think only two guys in the, like, last year.
05:15I want to bet.
05:16I'm desperate to bet on it, but I just don't know if it's going to get to that number.
05:19Just take eight?
05:20Sure.
05:21Oh, you would bet against eight?
05:23No, I'm saying I would take that.
05:24That would be a good target.
05:25No, no, no.
05:25But if you wanted to bet it, I think eight's a more realistic number, maybe.
05:28I was just hoping that cakes would take the tenner over and I'd take the under.
05:31I'm always vulnerable to make over bets on commander's wideouts.
05:36I have a long history of that.
05:37We'll stick with that because I want to look at some season-long numbers we could potentially
05:43throw out there.
05:45Of course, defensively, that's going to be a huge question mark.
05:48The defense has just been woeful the last couple years.
05:50Of course, they brought in, and we've been talking about it throughout, new defensive coordinator,
05:54Durante Jones.
05:55He wants a faster defense.
05:58They tried to get younger and faster.
06:00I think they accomplished that in a lot of ways.
06:03It would be interesting to see how Sonny Stiles debuts, if he's able to pop it all.
06:09He's got to make some plays.
06:10I hope that he has all the physical characteristics.
06:13You know, he may just be very solid, and then great in coverage, and you don't even really
06:18notice him that much.
06:19But it would be nice if he popped.
06:21I mean, if he's doing his job and stopping the run and covering guys coming out of the
06:25backfield and occasionally rushing the passer, that's why you draft him.
06:29They need to get a pass rush.
06:32The secondary's a little vulnerable.
06:33They don't have their number one corner, even though he's still relatively unproven in
06:37Trey Amos.
06:39So, we need to get a pass rush.
06:41That was the goal.
06:42They got a bunch of guys there.
06:43It would really help Cakes if they could have Owe there.
06:47It'd be great if he plays.
06:48I just don't know if I'm optimistic about him playing.
06:53It looks like they're going to try.
06:54Today might be a big day.
06:55I don't know what they have scheduled, but just a walkthrough yesterday.
06:58Today, let's hope he's not working on the side.
07:01He's doing whatever the team is doing.
07:03I think that'll be very, very interesting.
07:07I'm trying to look at some season-long bets for some of these guys.
07:14Let's go for Jaden Daniels.
07:16I think we talked about this.
07:17By the way, I just wanted to look at records.
07:20I know that somebody threw out there a couple weeks ago that Sonny, I think it was John Kime,
07:25he was trying to look at maybe some records that could be broken.
07:27The touchdown record is relatively low in 2026 in modern NFL football.
07:34Sonny's record, I think, is 31 touchdowns.
07:36You're talking about touchdown passes in a season.
07:39Touchdown passes in a season.
07:40Just for Washington, are there any guys that can break any records?
07:42I looked at passing yards.
07:45They're not going to break that.
07:47Do you know what Kirk Cousins threw for 4,900 yards?
07:50I think it was in 2016.
07:52They're not going to touch that.
07:53That's my guy.
07:54Jay Gruden was coaching up some offense.
07:56Share a birthday with Kirky.
07:57He can slay it.
07:58Don't sleep.
07:58I don't think that that is anywhere near.
08:02The line for Jayden, if you look around the league, let's see.
08:07So, FanDuel, they're basically all around 3,200.
08:11FanDuel's 3,200.5.
08:13DraftKings is 3,199.5.
08:16Bet MGM, 3,225.
08:19I mean, it's all right around 3,100, 3,200 yards.
08:22They expect them to miss games.
08:23I think that's...
08:24Because if you play 17 games, you should eclipse 3,100.
08:28Let's preface this by saying, all these season-long bets, if I at least talked about this a couple
08:31years ago, it makes a lot of sense.
08:32The smart money as a whole in a vacuum is go under because of the injury factor.
08:38So, let's just say, take the injury factor out.
08:42If you take the injury factor out and he's healthy, you got to go over that.
08:46Right?
08:46You have to go over that.
08:47Over 3,190 or whatever?
08:48Yeah, you have to go over that.
08:49That's 188 yards per game if you play 17.
08:52And he played 17 in his rookie year and he had almost 3,600.
08:56Yeah.
08:56If you wanted to bet on him getting over 4,000 passing yards, you could get plus 475 on that.
09:04That's a lot.
09:05Plus 475.
09:06But those odds might make it worth it.
09:08On FanDuel, the total on rushing yards for Jaden?
09:14642.
09:16549.5.
09:17Seems low.
09:19Seems low, but he doesn't.
09:20But it depends on how many games he's on.
09:22I know.
09:22It's the biggest factor.
09:24Yeah.
09:24Yeah.
09:25If he's out there 15 weeks, he's going to get to that number.
09:27All right.
09:28Terry McLaurin.
09:30The line on season receiving yards.
09:34I just have DraftKings in front of me for that one.
09:38924.5, Gakes.
09:40Look at what I'm doing with my two index fingers.
09:43You want to go up and over, right?
09:44I want to get the ceiling.
09:46Right.
09:46What's Diggs in the 600s?
09:47700s?
09:48700s?
09:49Actually, for Diggs, it's anywhere between 640 and 814, depending on the book.
09:55Jaden's passing yard number for this week is 205.5.
09:59What is Jalen's?
10:02Jalen's passing number?
10:04It's 214.5.
10:06Similar.
10:07So for, like, weekly season rushing totals, those are harder to find the season-long ones.
10:13The weekly rushing line versus Philly, Cakes, for Bill.
10:17For Bill, I'm going to guess it's at 46.5.
10:21Pretty close.
10:21It's between 39.5 and 41.5 yards.
10:25Okay.
10:25All right.
10:26So nobody's expected Bill to go big in week one, especially with offensive line issues,
10:31with Philly's defensive front, how dominant they are.
10:36Well, they're also, I'm guessing, banking on Rashad White getting some of the rushing load.
10:42And, of course, Jaden's going to rush for some.
10:44Right.
10:45There's going to be a lot of parlays in that game.
10:46I'm going to throw a lot of parlays.
10:47Here's one I think you should go over, Cakes.
10:49All right.
10:50I think we should all go over this right now.
10:53The weekly receiving yard total for Chig.
10:58Can I guess?
11:00Yeah.
11:0131.5.
11:02Lower.
11:0224.5.
11:03I think we've got to get in on that.
11:05We've got to get in on that.
11:06It's two catches.
11:07It's two catches.
11:08It could be one.
11:09It could be one with a lot of yack.
11:10You guys have been very, very high on Chig.
11:13Big on Chig.
11:13I will just say this.
11:15Not high on Chig.
11:16That doesn't work, Chigby.
11:16In a fantasy draft, there wasn't anybody big on Chig.
11:21Nobody's big on undrafted probably in most leagues.
11:23Unless you're in a tight end premium.
11:25I was talking to my partner yesterday.
11:28We'd already drafted one tight end.
11:30And I was like, a lot of people are big on Chig.
11:33But Kittle was still there.
11:35Yeah.
11:35She took Kittle as our second tight end.
11:37Especially in a 10-team league, you're probably not going to draft Chig Okonkwo.
11:42But if he's heavily featured in the first few weeks.
11:45Oh, he'll get scooped.
11:46That he's going to get, yeah.
11:47He's going to get plopped off the way from the wire.
11:49I'm telling you, if your book has 24 and a half on Chig in week one, I'm going over that.
11:55Smash the button.
11:56I'm going over 24 and a half.
11:58I think they're going to try to feature him.
11:59For Chig to have at least a 15-yard catch is even money.
12:04So, I mean, if he gets a 15-yard catch, he's probably going to get over 23 and a half.
12:10You would take.
12:10Anytime touchdown price for Chig, plus 475 to plus 500.
12:16I mean, Jaden does like throwing your tight ends in the red zone.
12:19There were lots of Zach Ertz in the red zone.
12:21Let me ask you this.
12:23What is the likelihood, percentage-wise?
12:27And this is going to be a nebulous question, but give me your percentage that the commander's
12:34offense in week one is humming.
12:37What's humming?
12:38I said it was nebulous.
12:39You kind of know it when you feel it.
12:41When the offense is rolling.
12:42I'd say humming is like 27 or more.
12:45Yeah, like 30s maybe.
12:47I would say.
12:47Where you're scoring touchdowns on multiple drives.
12:51I would say 24 points against that defense would be impressive.
12:55That's humming.
12:56In week one.
12:57Yeah.
12:57So, what is your percentage?
12:59The likelihood that the commander's offense is humming in week one.
13:03I think less.
13:0360%.
13:04I have faith in David Blau.
13:07I'm a Blau believer.
13:09I don't know.
13:09I think in week one, it's going to be tough.
13:11It's really tough for me to project it.
13:13That Jaden's going to have a 300-yard passing game.
13:16That Bill's going to run for 80 yards.
13:18I don't see that.
13:19For them to be successful, he doesn't need to pass for 300 yards.
13:22He could pass for 240, rush for 70, and that's a great day if you're able to get that sort
13:30of production out of Jaden.
13:32Not even 70.
13:33Rush for 50.
13:34There's just so many questions based on who missed a lot of time in training camp.
13:39How they looked in the preseason, which wasn't very good.
13:43Right?
13:44Do you know how many times Jaden...
13:45How different the offense is going to be and the defense because they've got two new
13:48cords.
13:49Think about how great Jaden was in 2024.
13:52Yeah.
13:52He passed for 300-plus yards, I think during the regular season, one time.
13:56Right.
13:56Right?
13:57One time.
13:58And that was against the Bears with the Hail Mary.
14:00Yeah, but he ran for so many yards.
14:02He ran for 900.
14:03But he just threw out there, like Jaden throwing for 300.
14:06That might only happen once or twice and still have a very prolific offense.
14:10He scored 28 a game.
14:11Yeah.
14:12Yeah.
14:13But you know it when you see it, when an offense is humming.
14:15Yeah.
14:16I doubt they'll be humming against Philly.
14:19I doubt it.
14:20LSU was humming this weekend.
14:22Well, turns out Clemson's trash.
14:24Clemson's trash program at this point.
14:26We're not playing Clemson.
14:28No, we're playing the big boys.
14:31But I do think that we've maybe, the narrative, not that the narrative matters on the impact
14:37of the game, but just this idea that we're just totally in flux, that we're going to
14:42go in there and get smoked, very well may happen.
14:45I just think it's too strong on one side, though.
14:48I think they're going to, are they going to show better than the consensus is?
14:52Let's hope so.
14:53Let's hope that's the case.
14:54I'm betting on them.
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