00:00Argentine President Javier Maile openly claimed that the Falkland Islands belong to Argentina.
00:04He seems to be taking an increasingly firm stance on the issue.
00:06President Trump, meanwhile, appears to be subtly siding with Argentina,
00:09suggesting that he might reconsider the sovereignty claims if possible.
00:12As a result, the conflict between the UK and Argentina seems to be intensifying again.
00:17President Maile of Argentina delivered a 20-minute national address on September 3rd local time.
00:21President Maile stated that the Falkland Islands are, without any historical or legal dispute,
00:25rightfully Argentinas.
00:27He said that the UK occupied the islands in 1833 and has maintained a colonial situation to this day.
00:32He also stated that the island residents do not have a legitimate right to self-determination.
00:35He also remarked that the current residents are settlers who were transplanted after the British occupation.
00:40He then raised concerns about the UK's oil development project in the Falkland Islands.
00:43President Maile of Argentina said that this project is an unprecedentedly serious matter,
00:48as it involves extracting non-renewable resources that belong to the Argentine people.
00:52He said that if we do not take action, within a few months, they will actually have the ability to
00:56extract the oil reserves in our waters.
00:58It's not exactly clear what President Maile meant by action.
01:01President Maile of Argentina announced that he would issue a presidential decree to sanction companies developing oil
01:06and supporting such activities near the Falkland Islands.
01:09And he announced plans to build an integrated naval base at Tierra del Fuego,
01:13about 700 kilometers from the Falkland Islands,
01:15making it the most important logistics hub and a key power projection base in the South Atlantic.
01:19So does Argentina actually have the military capability to attack the Falklands?
01:24If we look at the current strategy, it's realistically very difficult.
01:27The biggest problem for the Argentine military is its air force capability.
01:30The F-16s that Argentina has introduced are still very few in number,
01:33and the A-4 Skyhawks they have been operating are also severely outdated.
01:37The Super Etendart and Mirage series fighter jets are also very limited in number,
01:40so deploying large-scale air power to the Falklands, as they did in the past, is not easy.
01:44It's not just the number of fighter jets that's lacking.
01:46Pilot training, maintenance, and parts supply, and operational sustainability
01:49all need to be considered as well.
01:50And crucially, the fact that the Falkland Islands are not only far from the UK,
01:53but also quite distant from Argentina's mainland, is a major problem.
01:57Deploying fighter jets and actually carrying out combat operations are completely different matters.
02:01To secure enough time in the operational area after traveling long distances,
02:04you need aerial refueling, support forces, reconnaissance, and command and control capabilities.
02:07If Argentina engages in aerial combat with the British forces
02:10without having a sufficient support system in place,
02:12it would be difficult to compete based solely on the number of fighter jets.
02:15The same goes for naval power.
02:16To attack the Falklands, you need not only the Air Force, but also naval, amphibious, and transport capabilities.
02:20This is because you have to keep supplying troops after deploying them to the island.
02:23However, for the Argentine Navy as well,
02:24this would be a large-scale expeditionary operation over an extended period.
02:28It's hard to say they have the level of capability required to carry out such an operation.
02:31On the other hand, the UK has already deployed military forces to the Falklands,
02:34and has the ability to send additional forces from the mainland if necessary.
02:37The Royal Navy also has the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier,
02:40so if Argentina starts an attack,
02:41the UK has far more options to respond both at sea and in the air.
02:44Therefore, for Argentina to try to retake the Falklands by force right now
02:47would be a choice that comes with a very heavy military burden.
02:51Although President Malay is using strong language
02:53considering Argentina's current military strength and operational sustainability,
02:56it is much more likely that they will use diplomatic pressure and economic measures
02:59rather than an actual attack.
03:01Why did President Malay of Argentina suddenly make such statements?
03:03Actually, the biggest reason is President Trump.
03:05It's clear that President Trump's remarks had a significant impact on President Malay,
03:09and especially from Malay's perspective,
03:11the very signal that the United States might reconsider its existing Falklands policy
03:14was extremely important.
03:16The United States has maintained a cautious stance in the territorial dispute
03:19between the UK and Argentina,
03:20but it has also acknowledged the UK's de facto control.
03:23However, when President Trump was asked on August 31
03:25whether the United States was reconsidering its position on the Falkland Islands,
03:29he answered that they always review all positions,
03:31and that this was just one of them.
03:33This statement did not actually mean that the United States
03:35would support Argentina's territorial claims,
03:37but for President Malay, it could be seen as a sign
03:39that the existing US stance might change.
03:41On top of that, President Trump made additional remarks
03:43putting pressure on the UK toward the UK
03:45just before Malay's national broadcast,
03:47making the situation even more complicated.
03:49President Trump publicly expressed his dissatisfaction
03:52by comparing the support the UK received from the US during the Falklands War,
03:55with the current level of support the UK is providing to the US in the war with Iran,
03:58stating that the UK has not sufficiently cooperated with America's security demands.
04:02In particular, President Trump even questioned
04:04how long the US should continue to support the UK in the same way as in the past,
04:07sending a message that the traditional alliance between the US and the UK
04:10does not remain the same in every situation.
04:12President Malay actively took advantage of this point.
04:15President Malay argued that an international environment favorable to Argentina
04:18is being created by linking President Trump's statement
04:20that the US could reconsider its position on the Falklands
04:23with the fact that he also publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the UK.
04:26In fact, President Malay emphasized
04:28that the winds of change are blowing in favor of Argentina,
04:30and that President Trump is reassessing the United States' historical position on the Malvinas.
04:34He further explained that the reason the United States is considering such changes
04:38is because Argentina shares Western values and is a trustworthy partner for the US.
04:43In other words, President Malay not only interpreted Trump's remarks
04:46as a possible shift in US policy,
04:47but also expanded the logic to suggest that his close relationship with Trump
04:50could work in Argentina's favor regarding the Falklands issue.
04:53The important thing is that President Trump has never actually stated
04:55that he supports Argentina's claim to sovereignty over the Falklands.
04:58Nevertheless, President Malay actively embraced this statement
05:01because he saw the possibility of a rift emerging
05:03in the relationship between the US and the UK.
05:05For Malay, a new variable has emerged in the Falklands issue,
05:07which had not changed much in the international community until now,
05:10and this can be seen as an attempt to make the most of that variable diplomatically.
05:14In that situation, President Trump even spoke very favorably about Argentina.
05:17When a reporter asked whether the US would support the UK
05:20if another war broke out between Argentina and the UK,
05:22he avoided giving a definite answer.
05:24But in addition to that, President Trump also criticized the UK's response
05:28during the Middle East war.
05:29President Trump also lashed out, saying that even though you receive
05:32a significant portion of your oil through the Middle East,
05:35you didn't step up to help me.
05:36Depending on how you interpret it,
05:38his response could be seen as the US expressing an unwillingness to help the UK.
05:42Because of this, Argentina seems eager not to miss this opportunity.
05:45Of course, we also need to consider the US position.
05:47Let's look at why the US is acting this way.
05:49In fact, the US has two main complaints.
05:51It's because the UK isn't increasing its defense budget
05:54and didn't help during the Middle East war.
05:56Especially, we need to look at the defense budget.
05:58According to The Guardian,
05:59in the budget announced on October 28,
06:01they are not planning to present a timeline
06:02to raise the defense budget to 3% of GDP.
06:05Originally, they promised to increase it to 3% of GDP by the next parliamentary term.
06:09This is an intermediate step toward NATO's goal
06:11of raising direct military spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
06:15But the British government has stated
06:16that they cannot achieve the 3% target due to a lack of budget.
06:19The United States has said that it is putting pressure on
06:22and closely watching the UK regarding this.
06:24So, it seems that the US is using this as leverage to pressure the UK.
06:27But here, to understand the Falklands issue, you absolutely have to look at oil.
06:31A significant offshore oil fuel development is underway in the waters near the Falklands.
06:35The most notable project among them is the Sea Lion Project, which involves British companies.
06:40This project is being carried out in waters about 220 kilometers from the Falkland Islands,
06:44and if development proceeds as planned, the first oil production is targeted for March 2028.
06:48In the initial development stage, 11 offshore oil fields will be connected for production,
06:52and the production period is expected to last over 30 years.
06:54This is also the reason why Argentina has strongly opposed this project.
06:57This is because Argentina claims not only the Falkland Islands,
07:00but also the surrounding waters as part of its own territory and sovereignty.
07:03Therefore, Argentina sees the UK's oil development in the area,
07:06as other countries and companies taking away the seabed resources over which it claims rights.
07:10In particular, the fact that the project is still in its early development stage is also important.
07:15If actual production begins, companies could produce oil in the area for decades,
07:18though for Argentina, its current economic interests could grow even larger over time.
07:22This helps us understand why the Milay administration has decided to impose sanctions on the companies.
07:26It's difficult for Argentina to use military force to stop the UK's oil development,
07:30but it's relatively easier to apply legal and economic pressure on the companies participating in the development.
07:35In fact, President Milay has announced that he will impose sanctions on oil development near the Falklands,
07:39and on the companies supporting it.
07:40This can be seen as an effort to expand the sovereignty issue beyond diplomatic claims
07:43and turn it into an economic matter that directly affects actual business operations.
07:47If oil production becomes full-scale in the future, Argentina could not only impose sanctions on
07:51companies, but also question the legality of the development in the international community,
07:55disadvantage the related companies' businesses in Argentina, or strengthen diplomatic pressure.
07:59If that happens, the Falklands dispute could develop into not only a diplomatic issue over sovereignty,
08:03but also an economic conflict over oil development rights at the same time.
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