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An international affairs expert and former diplomat evaluated the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the BRICS summit, India-China relations, and global trade structures. The discussion emphasized that replacing the US dollar with the Chinese yuan in trade settlements would not be acceptable to many emerging economies, highlighting the necessity for transactions in local currencies to prevent single-currency dominance. On bilateral ties between New Delhi and Beijing, the interviewee underscored that lasting stability hinges on concrete progress along the unresolved border, particularly in light of recurring friction from Doklam to Galwan. Additionally, the dialogue addressed India's delicate balancing act in preserving strategic autonomy while navigating critical energy security partnerships with Russia amid global supply uncertainties, alongside trade imbalances and technological restrictions imposed by China in sectors such as electric vehicle battery manufacturing.

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00:00Ma'am, for a moment, I want to focus on these images that are coming in.
00:04The Prime Minister and the Chinese President Xi Jinping
00:07spent some time at this iconic backdrop of the pillars
00:12at the Sri Ramanathaswamy Temple at Rameshwaram.
00:18You know, is that perhaps an effort to tell the Chinese about the historic ties?
00:23Because there is conversation around this a little longer than with the others.
00:29Well, it's certainly, you recall Xi Jinping's visit to India.
00:35It began in Mahabalipuram with the backdrop of the ancient architecture.
00:42So it's signaling that India too is an ancient civilization
00:46with its own history and culture, which is very rich.
00:51But as I said, it's also looking at future links through the oceans.
01:01Yes, you know, you referred specifically to the Chennai-Vladivostok link.
01:05We've been talking about India seeking to invest or tie up more with Russia
01:10on the Arctic, you know, seafaring route in times to come.
01:15Shipbuilding is one area where India is really trying to focus on very extensively.
01:20Now, when you look at the BRICS architecture,
01:23is that an apprehension only in India or among other members that you cannot,
01:29while everyone's saying you cannot let America dominate the world order,
01:34at the same time, nobody would want China to dominate
01:37or to be the replacement power either.
01:40So are there effective countermeasures being put in place
01:43to ensure America is not replaced by China
01:46and same pressures work on the world?
01:48You know, like, let's say, if you look at the trade settlement issue,
01:56see, BRICS countries at the moment prefer trade in local currencies,
02:01settlement in local currencies, rather than looking at a common currency,
02:07because the strongest currency would be the yuan.
02:10And actually domination by one currency, you know, replacing the dollar with the yuan,
02:18may not be something that, you know, many countries are comfortable with.
02:24Certainly India is not, because we want this to be a more, you know, leveled structure
02:31where you don't have a pinnacle of authority and then, you know, the rest.
02:39So I think it's important, as I said, for India to do this delicate balancing act.
02:46And we're the only ones who can actually do it at this point of time.
02:50But of course, India, Russia, China, they're being seen as an alternate power structure.
02:58How would you respond to the criticism that India coming too close to Russia and China
03:03would, you know, alienate us?
03:06Or as some analysts seem to argue, America will not be too happy about it.
03:11Well, you know, I think for India, it's important to preserve its strategic autonomy.
03:18And the U.S. has been exerting unpredictable and sometimes irrational pressure on India.
03:26So I think for India, it's important to preserve space for its own national goals,
03:36whether it is energy security, which at the moment, you know, because of the conflict in the Gulf,
03:44has been badly impacted.
03:47So we have to import quite a lot from Russia.
03:50And the Russians have, in fact, shown a willingness to expand exports to India.
03:57So it's coming at a very critical time for India.
04:02Ambassador, if I may, for a moment, while everyone's also talking about BRICS and BRICS outcomes,
04:07there's a lot of conversation around the story of the day, as some put it,
04:12is, you know, the conversation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Chinese President Xi Jinping
04:19in about two hours and 30 minutes from now, a reset of sorts,
04:23the fact that he's flown in for the BRICS summit,
04:25is it only because he expects India also to come and join BRICS summit in China?
04:31Or do you see a genuine effort to reset ties?
04:36I think both countries have been making an effort to reset ties,
04:42despite the constraints, because we don't know if the Chinese position on the border has shifted.
04:50In fact, recently, there was some account of border skirmishes in Arunachal.
04:56Taxing Arunachal.
04:57So the border remains unresolved.
05:02On the trade side, China has a huge surplus with India.
05:08And India's dependency on Chinese inputs in many critical sectors has grown,
05:15whereas Chinese imports from India are very, very low.
05:20So I think these, then I think China has put a block on sharing technology with India
05:27in critical sectors, including most recently battery technology for electric vehicles.
05:34So I think that these are all issues which should be on the table when the two leaders meet.
05:43But the countries are trying to progress the relationship step by step.
05:50But are these multiple false starts?
05:53You know, I don't even want to go back to the Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai era in 62.
05:58If we were to talk about only the Narendra Modi government in the past 12 years,
06:022014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to India to Ahmedabad.
06:07There was tension at the borders.
06:09Then the 73-day Dolom standoff.
06:12Then the Wuhan summit, the informal dialogue.
06:16Then again, tensions at the borders.
06:18Then Mamalapuram 2019, Galwan 2020.
06:21And that tension remained high till Kazan 2024.
06:25And then Tianjin and now here.
06:28So multiple times we see the relationship go up, come down, go up, come down.
06:32Will this time be any different?
06:34Well, I think the relationship will stabilize much more if both sides are able to really, you know, have substantive
06:48movement on the border.
06:50Because as the border, till the border remains undefined, with conflicting claims from both sides,
06:58the possibility of border tensions remains.
07:03So there is a kind of expectation that there may be some direction by the leaders to continue the process
07:18or accelerate it.
07:19Let's see.
07:20Because the process of, you know, trying to restore some stability on the border after the Galwan tensions started when
07:34President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi had met.
07:40At Kazan.
07:41Yes.
07:43And post-Kazan, then Tianjin and now New Delhi, the fact that he's come to New Delhi, this conversation,
07:49and we'll be keeping an eye on what happens at 5.30 and subsequently the delegation that he's got along
07:54with him.
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