- 7 weeks ago
Rob Jonas, CEO of Luminate, joins *On the Record* to break down nostalgia and catalog music listening—and why older songs are dominating more than ever in the streaming era. From the “Stranger Things” effect to TV/film syncs and social media amplification, Jonas explains what the data shows about how we discover (and rediscover) music now, as host Kristin Robinson digs into what “catalog” vs. “deep catalog” actually means (18 months vs. 5+ years), why breaking new artists is harder than ever (with roughly 150,000 tracks uploaded per day), how streaming data differs from the sales-era “one data point” model, why rock listening skews older (75% of rock listening is 60+ months old), why film/TV data is less transparent than music—and what Luminate is building to close that gap—plus the latest on AI music detection vs. attribution (including labeling and avoiding false positives), the surprising rise in CD sales (and how much of it is driven by K-pop), and a fun “Spin the Record” segment with rapid picks including ELO, New Order, and Paul McCartney.
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MusicTranscript
00:00Today we're going to talk about nostalgia and catalog music listening.
00:04I think that all this music being amplified on social media or included in TV shows is
00:09definitely driving that effect. We've all talked about the Stranger Things effect and the effect
00:13of very high profile streaming content driving massive awareness in older music.
00:18Older music dominates in rock more than any other genre. 75% of rock listening comes from
00:23tracks older than 60 months. Look, for the rock genre we see that definitely skewing
00:27towards older demographics. And one thing we know about older demographics is they have a strong
00:34affinity to the music they discovered when they were younger. I don't know how much you can control
00:37it. Is there an increasing level of competition for frontline artists to gain the attention of
00:42the public? I think it's harder than ever to break through. We're now seeing close to 150,000 tracks
00:48a day being uploaded to streaming platforms. 20% of all music that's sitting on streaming platforms
00:52today has received almost no listenership. Everything old is new again. I don't know about
01:02you, but to me, it feels like our modern entertainment ecosystem is a lot of recycling of old stuff.
01:08Every cinema is playing a sequel. Every Broadway stage is hosting an adaptation. And so many viral
01:14songs are just old. From Justin Bieber's Beauty and the Beat, to Kate Bush's Running Up That Hill,
01:20to new hits like Up Our Song by Shabuzzi or First Class by Jack Harlow, which rework old melodies and
01:26lyrics from previous hits into something new. So it feels like nostalgic throwback media is now
01:32everywhere. Thankfully for you guys, my guest today is CEO of Luminate, Rob Jonas, and he's been
01:38tracking this trend for years. And he's going to break it down for us. Rob Jonas, welcome to On The
01:43Record. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me. Okay, so today we're going to talk about
01:47nostalgia and catalog music listening. But I feel like for people who are not even in the music
01:53industry who are watching this, I think they can probably feel that people are really nostalgic for
01:58media of the past, like across the board. Whether it's music or film and TV, it feels like everything
02:04that I see in a theater is a sequel or part of like the MCU. Or there's so many adaptations
02:10that are on
02:10the stage right now. I think the nostalgic thing that we're really seeing in music is just people
02:14looking back at older music, wanting to listen to it again, maybe in place of newer songs. I think
02:20that has caused some anxiety within the music industry about it. But before we get deep into
02:26this, I do want to just discuss the definition of what it means when you're talking about catalog
02:33music. So can you explain that? Yeah, so we've been tracking the difference between catalog and
02:38current or frontline music, obviously, for a long time. What we've seen, of course, is a small or gradual
02:43increase in activity around catalog music. We talk about catalog in a few different flavors. We
02:49typically look at music which is more than 18 months and then more than five years old. So you're talking
02:54about catalog and deep catalog. Both catalog and deep catalog have shown continual increases in
02:59recent quarters. Okay, got it, got it. And so I imagine you interface with a lot of folks in the
03:06music
03:06industry who are maybe concerned about what this means for frontline music and new music if they're
03:12competing against discovery for all the music of the past. What are kind of the anxieties that
03:17you're hearing from them? And what do you say to them when they approach you with that?
03:20Yeah, I mean, it's definitely a topic that comes up a lot. I think for a record company, it's a
03:25great
03:25position to be in because catalog music continuing to stream and perform is a way for them to continue
03:30to build revenue and deepen engagement with fans. And developing frontline new artists is critical for
03:36the future. So it's a healthy balance. I think the other thing, of course, we've seen is that
03:40the massive increase in financial activity and buying catalogs has also put a different level
03:47of growth into the music industry in recent years as well.
03:50Yeah, yeah. Well, okay, when I think about the increase of streaming catalog music, I also kind
03:56of think about like, you know, how much of this is just that we have more data on what people
04:01are
04:01consuming. Because for those who might not be super familiar with it, I feel like moving from sales to
04:06streams is like just a huge paradigm shift for the music industry. In the days of sales, a company like
04:12Luminate would only receive data when an album was bought or sold at a store. And after that point, we
04:19don't know how many times that they listen to it. So it could be that they took that CD home
04:22and they
04:23listen to it every single day for the next 20 years. And it's their favorite thing. But all you have
04:27is that
04:27one data point. Versus now, if we see someone listen to the same album over and over again every day
04:33for the
04:33next 20 years, you get to see every single time that that happens. So do you feel like any part
04:39of this is just that we have more data on the fact that people do like listening to older music?
04:44I think there's definitely that dynamic happening. I mean, remember now for Luminate, we now track
04:49close to 340 million recordings in our platform, which is the sum total of really modern music recording.
04:56And if that music's been around for three decades, we have an understanding of how that music's
05:01performed over three decades. So we understand physical sales, digital sales, radio airplay, and of
05:06course, now streaming. And you're right, like the amount of data we have on streaming is
05:10continual. It's every single day, we see everything in a minute level of detail, in a way that probably
05:15wasn't possible before.
05:16Yeah, I guess going back to the stuff we're talking about with frontline, and maybe that causing some
05:20level of anxiety for some executives. I often think about, you know, when I speak to people in the
05:27catalog world, the people who are buying these esteemed catalogs, whether it's Queen or James
05:34Brown, I mean, there's like a million examples of this over the last 10 years. They are often not
05:40always, but often there are active catalog buyers who are buying these catalogs, hoping for a return
05:47on investment, and they're like willing to put some money into marketing this music again. And we didn't
05:51really see that much before the catalog industry got red hot over the last 10 years. And so you now
05:57have
05:57digital marketing campaigns that you used to see just for frontline artists that are also happening
06:02for these older artists, like a, I don't know, like a James Brown or Miles Davis, I've seen a big
06:07marketing campaign around him this year, around his centennial. And so I mean, is there an increasing
06:14level of competition for frontline artists to gain the attention of the public?
06:19I think so. I think it's harder than ever to break through, right? Everybody's been writing about
06:23that for a long period of time. Again, go back to numbers, we're now seeing close to 150,000 tracks
06:28a day being uploaded to streaming platforms, which is a material increase, right? So breaking through
06:32and reaching an audience is really hard. Of course, I think as you've talked about on this podcast,
06:37a huge number of the amount of that music is not even listened to. So 20% of all music
06:43that's sitting
06:43on streaming platforms today has received almost no listenership in recent quarters, which is an
06:49astounding fact. So breaking through is really, really hard. But you're right, the catalog buyers
06:54are suddenly the active buyers are making massive investments in buying these iconic catalogs. And
07:00some buyers are passive, they'll sit on those assets for a period of time. But some are very active. And
07:05some of the resurgence we've seen around fans rediscovering this music is because of that active
07:10management of these incredible catalogs that have been bought in recent years.
07:13Yeah, yeah. You've also mentioned in a recent Luminate report all about nostalgia, like the power
07:20of TV and film for bringing back older songs. So can you talk a little bit about what you've seen
07:25in
07:25the last few years?
07:26Yeah, so it's interesting. Music is an industry incredibly transparent because of us and other
07:31companies do similar things to us. So if a customer, a partner or read our reports, you get a massive
07:37understanding and insight into what's happening in music. The streaming side of film and TV,
07:42a little less transparent. We spend a lot of time trying to solve that problem. But what that
07:46allows us to do now is really understand in a very detailed way, how the inclusion of music within
07:51streaming content on Netflix and Hulu and Disney and others, actually has a material impact in that
07:57music. The example we talk about all the time, which is a great one is the TV show on Amazon
08:02Prime
08:03called Fallout, which came from gaming. Not a gamer, but it was a crossover hit from gaming
08:10environments, ran on Amazon Prime. And for folks who know that show or the game, they'll know that
08:15there's a large amount of 50s and 60s music programmed into the game and now into the TV show
08:21as well. And what we found is a lot of this very obscure music from the 50s and 60s, we
08:26suddenly saw
08:27it growing by 400, 500, 1,000 percent as people discovered this really obscure set of music sitting
08:33within this amazing TV show. So that's a really good example, but it happens at a very large scale
08:40as well. We've all talked about the Stranger Things effect and the effect of very high-profile
08:45streaming content driving massive awareness in older music. And the effect's very real.
08:50Yeah. So I've been covering kind of that rise of syncs driving, meaning synchronization license,
08:57the license you need for putting music in film and TV. I've written a lot about that recently,
09:02especially when it comes to teen TV shows, which I think is so interesting.
09:06And I mean, it kind of makes sense. Teens are often the best music fans to have in your corner
09:11anyway. They're just such rabid fans. They're obsessive. They're excited about it. And so I feel
09:17like Stranger Things is kind of the perfect example to always point to with Kate Bush's running up that
09:22hill, having a huge resurgence. I recently wrote about a few others off campus. I don't know if you
09:28tracked that one at all, but that one was another Amazon Prime show. And it was just kind of like
09:34a
09:34campus love story drama. I honestly, I have to say, I do feel like I could have picked out the
09:40entire
09:40plot line because it's like love triangle. The girl is like not noticed, but she's actually really
09:46beautiful. And she wants the guy who is a rock star on campus. It's just like, I love it. But
09:52that show did so much for the songs in it. But it's also interesting, like you were mentioning
09:58with Fallout, sometimes these songs will end up having 100, 200, 1000% increases. But what I saw
10:06with off campus is the ones who are getting those really crazy numbers, like the 1000% increase week
10:12over week, were often those songs that like really weren't that popular to begin with. So it's also
10:16really interesting to dig into the data on like, okay, so it jumped a lot. But why did it jump
10:22a
10:22lot? Is it because it was just a small song? And this was its first moment of discovery? You know,
10:28it is much harder for an already well known song to have that big of an increase. Do you have
10:33any
10:34understanding as to why, like you were saying before, film and TV is a less transparent industry
10:41from a data perspective?
10:42Yeah, I mean, it's, it's fascinating. If you go back, I mean, Luminate is a five year
10:46old company with a 30 year history. So we've been doing this for a long time. And transparency
10:51has been sort of built into the music industry for a very long period of time. I think the
10:56charts and billboard charts drive a lot of that. But I think as well that music has become
11:01a very data driven industry, certainly, in the years I've been involved working with it.
11:07I think film and TV has gone through its own organic growth over the last few years.
11:12Obviously, the rise of streaming has been, you know, phenomenal. There are large technology
11:16companies who are driving a lot of this growth. And they understand the power of data and understand
11:22that that making that data available to everybody can sometimes be risky and can create a competitive
11:28threat for them. What's been very interesting is we've started to build products in that area,
11:32we found a change in how the streamers view what we're doing from nervousness around what we're
11:37doing and what transparency really means to now understanding that it's important for them and it's
11:42important for the ecosystem they operate in, even as it relates to music. And they've now been much
11:47more willing to work with us in the same way that music DSPs and music companies have worked with us
11:51for many, many years.
11:52Interesting. Well, why do you think music is more transparent? Like, you know, I imagine the
11:56same concerns are present for both sides of that entertainment industry.
12:01I think charts is an incredibly important part of that. I think the charts have been a way the
12:06industry has scored itself for many, many years. I mean, I can remember as a kid many years ago in
12:11England listening to the charts on Sunday night. I don't think consumers do that as much as they
12:15used to. But the industry really cares about this. And making sure that that scorecard is accurate
12:20every single week is incredibly important and something we obviously do working with Billboard.
12:24But I think it all flows from there. I think from that comes a need to understand how this incredible
12:30music performs every single week. And then, of course, as there's been more and more music being
12:34created in recent years and a greater understanding around the complexity of the music industry,
12:41understanding the data has become more and more important. You know, several years ago,
12:44we made a bet that music was going to be more global in 2026 than it was in 2021.
12:50And I think that's very much the case. You look at what we've said in the mid-year report,
12:54growth is coming from international. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you can even just see that
12:58on the biggest stage in America, which is the Super Bowl, choosing Bad Bunny was the choice that I
13:04think even five years ago, 10 years ago might not have been made. Or I mean, actually, Shakira was
13:10like five years ago. So maybe that is inaccurate, but it still felt like a really big moment given he
13:15was
13:15mostly only singing in Spanish and rapping in Spanish. That's very interesting. Whenever I think
13:22about the rise of catalog music in the streaming environment, I also think about maybe the decline
13:28of a monoculture. Are you seeing that top songs, like the top, top, top songs are getting less of a
13:34share of streams than they used to? Is that something that you guys have seen?
13:37I think we are seeing a little bit of that happening. I mean, the diversification of what people
13:42listen to is real. We talked about, you know, nostalgia trends and retro revival, which has
13:47been a big topic this year. And we're seeing lots of things happening there. I mean, we talked about
13:52sync and the impact of that on fans rediscovering music that perhaps they hadn't heard for a long
13:58time. At the same time, we're also seeing a very clear trend around how different demographics engage
14:04the music they heard as a kid. If I think about what I listened to when I was a child
14:09that my parents
14:10were playing, that music still takes up a huge part of what I listen to today. And this massive
14:14trend we're seeing right now about late 90s, early 2000s music is coming as a result of certain
14:21demographics reaching the age where they're listening to the music they heard as a kid.
14:25Yeah. I think that makes a lot of sense. I mean, I guess that's basically the 20-year trend cycle
14:29at work. Yeah. And I feel like it's way easier for me to spot that in something like fashion,
14:34where, you know, you see people dressing like it's like 2001 and it's like, whoa, okay. But yeah,
14:39you're definitely seeing it in music as well. One of the things that you had in the retro
14:44revival report that I wanted to point out, I don't want to mess it up, so I'm going to read
14:47it off. But you guys stated that consumers 13 to 24 are increasingly turning away from
14:53current music to engage in songs released before they were even born. I'm wondering what you
14:57make of that.
14:58I mean, I think it's exactly what we talked about, right? They are going back and listening
15:02to the music they may have heard when they were very young. I think that all this music being
15:07amplified on social media or included in TV shows is definitely driving that effect.
15:12And there's also this very interesting sort of nostalgia trend around the world before
15:17Y2K. You know, how often do you watch a movie now that's older and no one's picking up their
15:23cell phone and you kind of look back and miss those times? And I think it's a month of that
15:27as well. So I think it's hard to unpack one specific trend. The ultimate benefit, of course,
15:34is that, you know, now everybody can carry every piece of music pretty much ever made
15:37on their phone at all times. And it's very easy to go back and find this music as soon
15:41as you get any kind of tiny engagement with it.
15:44Yeah. Yeah. I mean, so true what you were pointing out about like watching a TV show and
15:48there's no cell phones present. I do think that there's perhaps a greater yearning for that
15:54now as we enter this AI age, where I think it's just increasingly, I think, very stressful
16:00for the average consumer to think about that whole topic. But I wanted to talk about what
16:05you guys are doing with AI. So y'all recently announced that you're going to start flagging
16:11AI songs. Is that right? Can you tell me more about that?
16:13Sure. I mean, AI is obviously a huge and incredibly complex topic for our customers and partners,
16:19but also, you know, every pretty much every industry and every consumer right now. I think
16:23there's a few things when it comes to AI and this business. Number one, as a data company,
16:28a technology company, AI has been a massive benefit to us. You know, if you think about
16:32the fact that we're managing, as I said, more than 300 million recordings, 150,000 new songs
16:37uploaded every day to streaming platforms, just managing that massive complexity of data
16:42is really hard. And AI and the tools that it's brought to our business has been a massive
16:47tailwind for us. We can do things now faster, more efficiently, more accurately than we ever
16:51have done. And that's a benefit to our customers and industry we work with. I think AI as it relates
16:57to music is a fascinating topic. I mean, it's now, what, two and a half years since fake
17:02Drake at the Grammys. I think there's been a period of panic and crisis. I think that's calmed down now
17:08and we're seeing how things evolve. One thing we've covered a lot in our reports are how consumers
17:14feel about AI music and how artists feel about AI music. And, you know, I don't think that consumers
17:20have fully embraced what this really means yet. Totally. I don't remember the figure off the top
17:25of my head, but I remember reading a report from you guys where basically people were saying that
17:29they would be less likely to say that they enjoyed a song or less likely to repeat a song maybe
17:33if they heard that AI was involved in the music making process. And it's interesting. I've had
17:38some guests come on the show that are maybe more pro-AI and they seem to think that consumers don't
17:43care. But from what I'm seeing on the ground, I think they really do.
17:46Yeah. I mean, we're seeing it in our surveys and research that we run. So younger generations,
17:53more open to it. Older generations, not. I don't think that's a surprise.
17:56Interesting. And I think it varies by genre as well. You know, if you're a fan of electronic
18:00or EDM music, you're probably more open to AI-generated music than perhaps pop or rock.
18:06So I think that'll make sense. Yeah. I do remember there was something in that data,
18:10and I'm going to correct myself on the screen if I have any of this wrong, but I remember there
18:14was
18:14something about like millennials being particularly open in comparison to some other demographics.
18:20I do see that from some Gen Z, I think it's a result. This is just me positing. I think
18:27that
18:27there are some Gen Z folks that are leaving college, leaving high school, entering the workforce,
18:33and have a little bit more of a backlash against AI than maybe, say, a millennial who's 10,
18:3720 years into their career. Because it's just so stressful to think about how this might affect
18:44them being able to get employed. I think there's maybe a greater backlash because it's such a pivotal
18:48point in their life that's being impacted rather than, oh, this is now helping me at the job that
18:52I already won five years ago, and I'm already safe in my seat. But yeah, I mean, it's been really
18:58interesting to see the rise of AI. And I'm curious, you said that Luminate's now seeing 150,000 songs
19:06being uploaded to streaming services daily. That's up from the last time I heard you guys speak about
19:11that from over 100,000, I think was the last count. Yeah. And so how much of that is AI
19:16songs? Do you have
19:17any idea? So we're not in the position to do that yet. We're still working on that. It's actually
19:21an incredibly hard problem to solve. So to your question around what are we going to be talking
19:27about going forward? So AI music falls into two categories for me, and it falls into detection
19:32and attribution. Detection is understanding, is this an AI artist? Is it an AI track? Was it created
19:38using one of these platforms? Ultimately, there's most likely a human behind managing the tools,
19:44but ultimately the music is generated by machines. So detecting that is incredibly important.
19:50Attribution is multiple orders of magnitude harder. Understanding whether AI was used to
19:54generate a track dominantly by real organic artists in a studio, different set of issues.
20:00But detection is where we have to start. And there is a general understanding that a lot
20:04of AI music is being created. A very small amount is being listened to today. I think we looked
20:09at the data for our mid-year report. I think the number one streamed AI track in 2025 ranked about
20:164,400 globally. Now, considering how many hundreds of thousands of tracks there are,
20:23that's not bad, but it's still 4,400 away from the largest artists in the world.
20:29Yeah. I mean, it's not number one on the billboard charts yet, but if it does,
20:33that would be a day I would be writing about. So detection is incredibly important. And why are
20:39we doing this? We get asked the question a lot. It's a logical evolution for us. Obviously,
20:43we are trying to measure the music industry and the film and TV industry as accurately as possible.
20:49And understanding what this new dimension to the music industry is doing is incredibly important.
20:54A while back, we focused very much on functional music, which was a big topic probably three or four
20:58years ago. Yeah. Can you explain what that is for those who might not know?
21:01So noise, ambient, nature sounds, which can be a very large part of some streaming services.
21:09And it's typically genuine consumers listening to that for various different reasons.
21:14We had to detect that, label it, help our customers and partners understand what it means.
21:19And AI detection is the next logical evolution. The other thing about detection or even attribution
21:24is it's incredibly hard. And recently, a lot of the DSPs have talked about their own solutions for
21:30how they're going to track this and label it, which, again, is very important. We have a general
21:35belief that no individual company is going to solve this on their own. We will have to work together.
21:39So what we're announcing is our ability to run our own detection systems, but also working with our
21:43DSP partners and our customers to collect what signal they have to hopefully build the most
21:48comprehensive view of what really is AI music and labeling it appropriately.
21:51Yeah. I feel like from the outside, I make a lot of short form videos about my reporting,
21:58which really gets me out there among the people to see what their opinions are about AI music.
22:02And it's been really instructive, honestly. But feedback that I get a lot from your average
22:08consumer is just, why is this all only happening now? Like, why are we in 2026 and now you're seeing
22:16all the streaming services at Luminate? You know, everyone now finally trying to put labels on AI
22:21music. I'm wondering, from your perspective, like, what was going on behind the scenes this whole time?
22:27Look, I think there's a big technology problem to actually do it properly.
22:30Yeah.
22:30So that's really key. I think as well, the scale of the problem, you know, it's now bigger than it
22:35ever
22:35has been. And it appears that consumers want to understand what they're listening to. That's one thing
22:40we ask folks a lot in our surveys, which is, you know, is labeling important? How would that change your
22:45opinion of music? So we know that's necessary and I think it has to be done. Now, at the same
22:49time,
22:50you know, the big concern from our customers and partners is AI music and fraud are sometimes two
22:56sides of the same coin. So understanding how this music is going to potentially create an impact or
23:02a negative impact on the royalty pool is a very important topic. And getting that right and being
23:06able to measure it and take a fact-based approach to understanding it is really, really key and key to
23:11our mission and what we do. Yeah. Yeah. I have done a lot of research on this
23:16labeling stuff and, you know, there have been some streaming services that have come out ahead and
23:20tried things earlier than others. I think Deezer is a good example. They were, they're among the,
23:24I would say they are the most vocal streaming service. And for those who don't know, it's,
23:28it's much more popular in France to use Deezer than maybe the States, but they've used a detection
23:34system to flag and tag AI music publicly for users to see as they are moving through Deezer. And I
23:44mean, there is always the challenge of what if you accidentally falsely flag something that is human
23:49made. And I think on a site like Deezer, they can maybe experiment a little bit more than something
23:54like Spotify that's always in the spotlight. Same thing with Apple music, just being the two biggest
23:59in the world. So how are you guys going to deal with the idea of false positives? Yeah, I think
24:04that comes down to the point I made around how it's really important for multiple organizations
24:08to work together to solve this. Okay. So we have our own detection systems. You know, Apple have
24:14theirs, Spotify have theirs, Deezer have theirs. By aggregating all that signal into one place,
24:19you get to a better answer. So, you know, if four of us agree, it's probably correct. If five or
24:24six,
24:24seven, eight, it's definitely correct. The interesting thing is going to come when you have a differing
24:28opinion from different services around what is and what is not AI content. And that requires
24:33that we take a closer look. But getting it right is incredibly important. And that's why I think
24:36everybody's taking their time to do it properly. This episode is brought to you by the RAAA,
24:41or the Recording Industry Association of America. The RAAA represents hundreds of member companies,
24:47from major music groups to independent labels behind today's biggest artists and hottest newcomers,
24:53advocating for policies, protections, and rights that keep the American music industry strong.
24:58That means fighting for intellectual property rights, championing state and federal legislation,
25:03like the No Fakes Act, and making the case for a music ecosystem where artists, labels,
25:08and creative partnerships thrive. RAAA's biannual reports show that collaboration drives revenue from
25:14streaming and vinyl to new investments in future stars. Beyond advocacy for the music business,
25:21the RAAA is also known as the organization behind the gold, platinum, and diamond certifications that mark some of
25:27the most significant milestones in an artist's career. If you'd like to learn more about this
25:31organization and its role in your favorite music, head to riaa.com. I want to go back to our topic
25:38with
25:38nostalgia, catalog listening, all that good stuff. I've been thinking long and hard ahead of this
25:43interview about why I think there's been an uptick in this over the last few years. And I think one
25:50of the
25:50things that has come to my mind first is that we've really now moved away from human driven curation. We're
25:59now in
25:59such a heavy algorithmic curation period of the music industry. I mean, even a few years ago, Spotify playlists could
26:06completely move the needle for an artist. It is less so now, according to a bunch of people that I've
26:12been talking to about
26:13this. It seems that the only thing that is working is TikTok or just getting algorithmically recommended on
26:20various streaming services. And when you have like a human gatekeeper, I'm not necessarily trying to defend the
26:28idea of human gatekeepers, but I do think one of the positive traits of a human gatekeeper is that there's
26:34a
26:34relationship that's formed. And like, for example, if I was a DJ, a radio DJ, and you worked at a
26:41record label,
26:42we form a relationship and you say, hey, here's our new single, and we're putting it out on the state.
26:47And then I decide from there if I put it in rotation or not. Without that human connection, the algorithm
26:54is
26:54not receiving a pitch. They don't know what's new and what's old. I mean, yes, the metadata would bear
26:59that out. But the algorithm is just like what keeps people on longer, we will just do that. And so
27:05I don't know,
27:06do you think I'm onto something with this? Or do you think that there are other explanations that are more
27:10potent for why we're seeing more increased catalog listening on streaming services today?
27:15Look, I think there's a lot to unpack in terms of why catalog is becoming a larger and larger part
27:19and share of music. I think you can have a debate on art versus science, right? The quality of the
27:24music that was created in prior years and how impactful that's been. I think discovery is talked
27:30about as a huge part of it. And I think this younger generations looking to rediscover music they heard
27:36in their childhood is definitely a dimension as well. But I think to the question around
27:42algorithmic discovery, it really is the crux of the art versus the science debate. Oftentimes we're
27:47sat on the science side of the argument. So looking at all the data and trying to work out what
27:51the
27:51right answer is and working out what the facts are. But there's a huge role for art in discovery and
27:55breaking artists.
27:56I think another thing that I've been thinking about in this area is, I mean, catalogs sometimes for these
28:03large music companies might be more lucrative if they take off. I don't assume that everyone who's
28:08listening to this knows this, but there's been a trend towards friendlier and friendlier deals for
28:13artists at record labels and publishers, which is a great thing. You know, with the fact that you can
28:19go viral in your bedroom, artists are able to stay independent longer. And then once they finally do get
28:25to the table and they want to sign a deal, they have a little bit more leverage than, you know,
28:28yesteryear where you really were looking for a development deal. For that reason, I would say
28:35probably on average, label deals and publishing deals are more favorable to the artists than they
28:39have been in the past. I don't know. Do you think that there's any merit to that as one reason
28:45why
28:46people would be looking back to their catalog and saying, hey, maybe we should do a marketing campaign
28:49for the 10th anniversary of this song or the 20th anniversary?
28:53I mean, we are, as a business, we're probably far from the signing and developing new artists part
28:59of the industry. We do a lot of work around data-driven A&R, but it's probably the most
29:04secretive part of our industry for obvious reasons. One thing we do know for sure, though, is that,
29:11you know, obviously developing new artists is still inherently risky. And for these, certainly the
29:17larger music companies, having a predictable high margin revenue and growing part of their business
29:25from catalog is incredibly important. And again, you know, with investors coming in, buying these
29:31catalogs and developing these catalogs in a very active way, it's an incredibly powerful way for
29:36these organizations to grow their business and grow revenue. But at the same time, you know, there's a
29:40genuine concern that not making investment in frontline artists today, you know, that's the catalog of the future.
29:47Yeah. And where do we go from here if we're not developing and creating amazing talent going
29:52forward? I've also toyed with the idea of, is it possible that we're just growing the pie and growing
29:58the amount of time that we're listening to music? And it's not just that, you know, it's old music
30:03versus new music. What does the data say about that? We, as a business, are very good at understanding
30:10what, where and how. We understand what's being listened to. We understand where it's being listened to in
30:16terms of what service it's on. And we understand how it's being listened to. Is it, you know, is it
30:20from
30:20a premium subscription? Is it ad supported? We have very little understanding of who, which is an
30:25important dimension, I think, to answer that question. We do a lot of survey work to understand
30:29what's happening. And I think that does agree with the fact that music is being listened to more than
30:35ever and in more ways. So I think overall listenership is increasing. Yeah. And I think
30:41that's an incredibly important part of why we continue to see growth in streaming every single
30:45year. Yeah. At the same time, you know, we've talked a lot about how growth in streaming and
30:51growth in music in the U.S. has slowed and why we talk a lot about the fact that international
30:57is the
30:57next growth area. Yeah. So I think overall listening to music is growing everywhere. And I think
31:01internationally is growing even more so than a lot of folks realize. Yeah. Yeah. I mean,
31:06the international piece is really interesting, but I do understand that there can be diminishing
31:11returns for labels who start to seek international growth because there are some, you know, not all
31:17streams are created equal. So a stream in a country where there's less buying power among consumers is
31:23going to result in a lesser, smaller royalty per stream than what you'll see in the U.S. Are there
31:29any
31:29markets in particular that you are excited about that you feel like that do have a lot of growth
31:34potential and would be worth diving into? I think there's a lot of focus on the Indian market right
31:38now, which I think is fascinating. So obviously, you know, one of the most populous countries on the
31:43planet. Streaming is growing very, very quickly there. Historically, it has been mostly, you know,
31:49free or ad supported music. And there's a huge focus from the record companies and the DSPs to
31:55convert more streamers into premium subscribers in that market. I think the last time we looked
32:00at the data, I think for a few points market share change from ad supported to premium in India,
32:05it's equivalent to a small international market in, for example, Southeast Asia in terms of its size
32:10and scale and impact. So it's a really, really huge market and a fascinating market as well.
32:14A long history of very local music. But the impact of global streaming services coming in has been
32:21really profound on the market. Yeah, that's so interesting. I mean, that's something,
32:26mark my words, guys, I will do an Indian music industry episode, but it is hard to get people
32:32over from India because it is very far away. Have you spent much time there? I've actually spent a
32:36lot of time there personally, not with this business, but historically I have. And we're now
32:39looking very closely at the market. Like India and China are very interesting markets for us.
32:43Yeah. Yeah. Y'all moved into China pretty recently.
32:46So we've recently done, so for us to run our business, we have to put the data partnerships in place
32:50first,
32:51and we recently had a large data partner come on board in China, which has been very important
32:56for us. I think what's really interesting about that is our understanding of the Chinese music
33:01market is evolving pretty quickly. But folks we know there as part of this relationship have said
33:06they've watched the rise, obviously the huge rise of K-pop from the South Korean market.
33:12They've looked at now the resurgence of J-pop coming out of Japan and what's happening there.
33:16And they've said, you know, C-pop is going to be the next global wave of music expansion.
33:21So we want to make sure we're well positioned to do that.
33:23Yeah. And of course, by working with us, they have the ability to narrate what's happening in
33:27that market globally to the music industry and be part of some of the research we do around
33:32export power and how music is moving between countries. So I think it's be very interesting
33:37to watch both the Indian and the Chinese markets going forward.
33:39Yeah. I'm very, very curious about China because I mean, all the services are different. All the
33:44social media services are different. I recently met someone who is a Chinese music industry
33:52consultant for Western artists. And this is like a cottage industry that is popping up of people who
33:57are trying to help a Western artist who doesn't have access to these platforms just even manage their
34:02social media accounts in China so they can grow a fan base that they honestly have no other interaction
34:07with. It's fascinating.
34:08And when you talk about, you know, listenership and the scale of music, the market is enormous.
34:13Huge.
34:14And we'll see how artists start to move from the Chinese market internationally, as we've
34:21seen with other sort of export markets. I feel like it will take a while to develop, but it's
34:25going to be very interesting to watch.
34:27Yeah. Well, OK, so I wanted to dive into a specific genre. I saw this in your mid-year report
34:33just a few weeks ago, rock music. So in the report, you guys said that,
34:38older music dominates in rock more than any other genre. 75% of rock listening comes from tracks
34:44older than 60 months, marking a 5% uplift in deep catalog listening from this time last year.
34:50So I understand that 60 months equals five years. It's not that old. But also, can you give us like
34:57some more information about what this actually means?
35:00Yeah. It's definitely five years and older. You're right. Look, for the rock genre, we see
35:05that definitely skewing towards older demographics. And one thing we know about older demographics is
35:11they have a strong affinity to the music they discovered when they were younger.
35:15Yeah.
35:15And it plays and plays and plays and plays. I feel a little bit that way myself. I wouldn't say
35:20I'm a
35:20heavy rock music enthusiast, but I can skew that way when I need to. And the music I listen to
35:25is all
35:25from the 90s. And I think that plays out largely across demographic and genre in the way we see other
35:32trends playing across demographic and genre in Latin and hip hop and pop, for example.
35:38Yeah. Well, I've thought a lot about some of these stats where it says 60 months and older. And I'm
35:43like, OK, so is it that most people are listening to something that's about six years old, which would
35:47be pretty current? It would classify as old music, but it's not super old. Or is it that people are
35:52listening to Led Zeppelin all the time? And I don't know if you have any insight into that off the
35:57top
35:57of your head, but is it skewing towards 90s?
36:00It's definitely five years and older, and it goes all the way back to the 60s and 70s.
36:04And we're talking about Gen X, and we're talking about boomer generations here,
36:09basically playing the music they discovered when they were younger and continue to play it.
36:13Yeah. I mean, is that something that should be concerning for folks in the rock industry,
36:17that it is skewing so heavily older?
36:20Is it concerning? I don't really know. I think it's, you know, obviously it's a generational,
36:26a demographic trend. I don't know how much you can control it. And of course, you know,
36:32for the folks in the industry who own those catalogs and are generating value from those
36:35catalogs, the fact that you can now discover and list that music easier than ever is, I think,
36:39a positive thing.
36:40Yeah. Also in that mid-year report, focusing on rock, you mentioned that there were some
36:46really positive moments in rock music this year, one of them being Noah Kahn's The Great Divide,
36:51which has been a huge hit. I honestly think of him as folk. I'm wondering how you guys do
36:55classifications in general. Like how do you do, is it self-classified where the artist chooses?
37:01We rely, so we could spend the rest of the podcast talking about metadata, which has got many,
37:07many problems. The genre classification ultimately comes from the label who is uploading that music
37:15to the DSP. And we work with that. We do a ton of work around classification. We do our own
37:20classification. We do classification for billboard. There's many ways to categorize this music.
37:25But ultimately, we have to define a standard for a particular artist. And that's where Noah landed.
37:31Yeah. Okay. Fair. Fair. I'll say folk personally, but I get it. I get it. It does have a rock
37:37skew to
37:37it. It's not like a totally out of the realm of possibility classification. Another thing that I
37:42thought was so interesting about the mid-year report was talking about CDs and the surge of CDs.
37:49The growth of CDs sales this year has outpaced vinyl. But interesting caveat they all noted is
37:56that if you take out K-pop, then that's over half of the CD surge that we saw this year.
38:02Exactly right.
38:02Yeah. And so we saw the release of really, really big K-pop albums this year, including
38:07one from BTS as a huge comeback for them. So I'm wondering, when you are thinking about the
38:12Western pop market, how much stock should they take in this CD surge? Should they be investing
38:18more in CDs or is this really a K-pop thing?
38:20I mean, CD phenomenon is fascinating, right? So we saw the surge in vinyl going all the way
38:25back to the pandemic. And now I think we're in year 20 of back-to-back year-on-year growth
38:30for vinyl sales, certainly in the US market. Incredibly important and vibrant part of the
38:36music ecosystem. CD three or four years ago was very small. I think this year, according
38:44to our report, we grew 16% year-on-year. And you're right. When you strip out BTS, it was
38:47more like six to 7%. But that six to 7% is still higher than the two and a half
38:52percent
38:53that vinyl grew. So CDs are outpacing vinyl right now. What's driving that? You're right.
38:59K-pop is a huge part of it. The BTS release specifically had many variants available on
39:04CD. And you see this intense fandom around owning those different variants. And that's
39:09driven a lot of the surge in activity. But at the same time, we are starting to see some
39:14evidence of, again, going back to the nostalgia trend, certain demographics going back and
39:19listening to this music from the 90s and early 2000s on CD in the format it was released,
39:25which is another interesting trend we're seeing emerge right now.
39:28That is really interesting. I mean, I do know there was this big viral stat from you guys
39:33a few years ago that about half of US vinyl owners don't actually have a turntable at home.
39:38I think y'all have something similar for CDs, right? There's a lot of people who don't actually
39:43play their CDs.
39:44So in early 23, we came out with the, you're right, 50% of millennials who bought vinyl did
39:49not own a record player. The good news is that's now decreased to a third. So there are more record
39:54players out there, which is great. We've now looked at the same stat for CDs, and it's pretty
39:58consistent. So about half of people or consumers who buy CDs do not own a CD player.
40:04Wow. Okay. So what does that mean about the value of a CD for a consumer?
40:08I think we get into the debate around, you know, some of these physical formats being
40:12very much collectibles. And one thing we know about K-pop fans is they have a, you know,
40:17a huge fierce affinity to their artists and the bands and owning everything that's attached
40:21to that artist is incredibly important part of their fandom. And we're seeing that play
40:25a little bit in that, in that CD buying behavior.
40:27Yeah. I think it makes a lot of sense. And also for me, I think that when I go to
40:32a show
40:33and I go to the merch counter, the hoodie is 80 bucks. You know, the most basic t-shirt
40:40is $40. And so if there is an option to buy a cheap CD, so I can say that I
40:46got to go to
40:47the merch counter, bought it at the show, you know.
40:50You get the CD, not the hoodie?
40:52Yeah, I would. I would. Also, I'm not a big fan of hoodies, but that's just a personal
40:56preference. But, you know, like I do think that there is a lot of value in having a cheap
41:00offering for fans who really do want to participate in helping the artists. I think there's a lot
41:06of fans that do understand that, you know, maybe their favorite artist is only scraping
41:11by at this point if they're kind of a middle class artist. And so buying a CD or buying a
41:16vinyl record is a big boon to that artist. But it's also not too hard. There's not a
41:20big pay barrier to entry for owning a CD. I do also like the liner notes. That's pretty
41:26great. And that all doesn't have to replace me listening to that album on streaming. It's
41:31also interesting how many Western artists are adopting kind of this K-pop variant model
41:36where it's like, okay, how about we make 10, 20, 30? I don't know if it's ever reached
41:4240. I know it's reached like 35 or so.
41:44I've not seen 40, but it gets up there.
41:46It gets up there of the exact same album, but with different cover art, different colored
41:50vinyl records or CDs inside. But I just kind of wonder where the ceiling is on all of this.
41:59Well, it doesn't seem we've reached it yet. One thing we're certainly seeing is this momentum
42:03around fandom and super fandom is not slowing down. Again, for a few years now, we've been
42:08talking about 20% of music listeners being super fans, which means they engage in,
42:14with their artists they love in five or more ways. And that could be streaming, could be
42:18attending a live show, could be buying merchandise. There's various different criteria. And that 20%
42:23has stayed pretty constant. But their willingness to engage and buy and develop a relationship
42:30beyond streaming with the artists and the bands they love is not going away.
42:33Yeah, yeah. A previous guest on the show, I don't know if you met him before, Seth England,
42:38CEO of Big Loud. He was a great guest. And he was talking about like the rise of country music.
42:44And he cited Illuminate report and some findings about super fandom. And his takeaway from reading
42:51over some of the stats on super fans was that it might be easier to convert a super fan from
42:57a
42:57different genre to love country music and to become a super fan also of country music or a specific
43:01country artist than it would be to get someone who's kind of a passive fan to become a super fan
43:07within country. I was curious what your thoughts are on that. Do you feel like super fans are
43:14adaptable and willing to kind of move across genres and adopt new artists?
43:18I think what we've seen a lot is sort of genre blurring. So there is some evidence and again,
43:24some of the research we run that shows that fans of a specific genre are starting to move
43:28into other genres. So it makes sense that super fans would make the same change.
43:32Country is a great example. I think we talk about country now more than we ever have done in the
43:36last five years because it's gone through a phenomenal surge, country and Latin music
43:40specifically. Probably four years ago, we started really charting the very rapid rise of Latin music.
43:46And probably two years ago, we started charting the increasing viewership, sorry, listenership of
43:52country music. Very different trends happening there. Global is a very important part of what's been
43:56happening. But the ability for fans to move between genres and bring that super fandom with
44:01them is definitely something we see as well. And I'm also wondering, so you said the vinyl
44:05growth this year was about 2%, maybe a little over that. Is that kind of slowing down?
44:11It's definitely slowed down a little bit. Again, the detail really matters here. Independent retail is
44:17an incredibly important part of the vinyl ecosystem. What we saw this year, though, is because we had these
44:23huge releases specifically by K-pop bands. They skew very heavily towards mass market retailers.
44:28Oh, okay. So like Target, Walmart.
44:30Exactly. So when these, you know, 5, 10, 15 variant releases drop, mass market has a really big impact
44:37on vinyl growth. And that can somehow dampen what's happening in independence. When those releases are
44:43absent, the vibrant growth within the independent retail sector is very, very clear.
44:47Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Very interesting. Okay. I feel like it's time to do some games.
44:53Sure. Let's do it.
44:53We got, we could talk about this for, honestly, the rest of the day, because I feel like there's so
44:57much to unpack. But we'll move on to this game that we call Spin the Record. It's a tradition here
45:03on On the Record. Spin the Record. It's brought to you by the RAAA. And basically, you're going to
45:10spin the wheel a few times. We'll see what it lands on. These are all just fun questions, all about
45:14nostalgia and your work at Luminate. And yeah, we'll get you some answers.
45:17Okay. These are custom for today?
45:19Oh, yeah.
45:19Oh, wow.
45:20They're custom for you.
45:20All right.
45:21Okay. So personally, are you a fan of vinyl, CDs, or cassettes?
45:26Definitely vinyl. Buying more vinyl than I ever have done.
45:30Wow.
45:30And I actually texted this to a friend of mine on Friday night who'd just given me a whole bunch
45:37of vinyl I really wanted. And it's music I've listened to since I was a kid. And it's very
45:44clear that it just sounds better on vinyl.
45:46There you go.
45:47And I don't know a CD player anymore.
45:49Wow. Okay. Yeah. No, I actually just got rid of my car that had a CD player. And so I'm
45:53in the same boat. But I do think with records, it really depends on what your turntable and
45:58your sound system is.
45:59I agree.
45:59I do not have a good one yet. I'm working on it.
46:02Okay. Spin again.
46:03Again?
46:03Yep. Okay. What is Illuminate's stat that really intrigues you personally?
46:08I think probably our most recent one from this year, just under 10% of listening in the US is
46:13now Latin music.
46:14Whoa.
46:15Yeah.
46:16Okay.
46:16And again, the rise has been very rapid. The Bad Bunny Super Bowl performance this year,
46:20which is incredible, has had a huge impact on that. We saw that. It made a material impact in
46:26how this genre is being listened to. But I think that stat is probably one of the most fascinating
46:31right now.
46:31I love that. Okay. Let's spin again.
46:35What do you think is the most often cited Illuminate stat? What do you hear the most often?
46:41Definitely the 100,000 tracks a day.
46:43Yes, which is now updated.
46:44Now updated to 150. Again, I think we talked about that probably three, four years ago now.
46:50And that has been cited over and over and over again.
46:53By me.
46:53And thank you. And is now updated. So we'll see how long it takes that update to...
46:58Yeah. Well, it's going to start today for me. Well, okay. I'm really curious how much AI makes
47:04up of that. Do you know?
47:06I think I'll have to come back on in a few months and talk about that once we get a
47:09better
47:10understanding.
47:10Okay. TBD. TBD. Okay. Let's spin one more time.
47:16Wow. Beautiful.
47:17Much better.
47:19What is a prediction that you have for the music business based on your data?
47:23We've talked about this a lot, certainly the last couple of reports we put out. The way that music
47:27is moving globally is becoming incredibly complex. And it may always have been complex. And it's now
47:34just much easier to understand. But we talk about these import-export rankings. So understanding
47:41whether a country is a net importer or exporter of music.
47:45Interesting.
47:45And how that changes. I think it's incredibly important. I think it goes hand in hand with
47:49the fact that, you know, one of the next waves of growth that industry is going to be in
47:53international markets. It is happening right now. But understanding how, you know, how K-pop
48:00can now be, you know, the number three or Korea can be now the number three import market into the
48:06U.S. is a really fascinating change in how music moves around the world. And seeing how this evolves
48:13going forward is fascinating. What it means for sub-Saharan Africa, what it means for the Middle
48:17East, how South America continues to export music, what it means for China, as we talked
48:21about, what it means for India. I think it's going to be fascinating. I think a world where
48:26music is more global and diverse than ever is a good thing. And measuring that going forward
48:31is going to be, I think, very important.
48:33I'm really curious, like, as a British person, do you follow the British music industry and
48:38how it's moving very closely?
48:40I do. And I do because I think if you go back a couple of years, there was real concerns
48:45that the U.K. had lost its power as a music cultural force. I think that's come back around
48:52in the last couple of years, certainly with the rise of artists like Olivia Dean and others.
48:57And the U.K. is now kind of back to where it was. So I think it's a positive thing.
49:03Yeah, that's why I ask. I don't know if you know Will Page.
49:05Of course.
49:06But I just met up with him in London. I was there a couple of weeks ago, and he was
49:09giving
49:09me a whole presentation about what was going on with the U.K. music market. And it got
49:13me really interested, especially because, truly, I don't know. I want a study done on
49:18this. Why are there so many CEOs that are British and American companies?
49:22I have no idea on that. One thing we were looking at on the U.K. music, you may finish
49:26this. I know you're a huge, I think you're a huge Radiohead fan.
49:28I am a huge Radiohead fan.
49:29So when I last looked at this sort of in the depth of despair around U.K. artists in the
49:35U.S.,
49:35Radiohead was the top ranked British artist and act in the U.S.
49:41Wait, what?
49:42Yeah. But it was way out of the, you know, out of the top top. And this was a couple
49:47of
49:47years back.
49:48Wow.
49:48OK.
49:49It's changed now.
49:49I will say I do see Radiohead songs going viral on TikTok a lot, which has been really
49:54surprising to me to watch because I don't think that their music is at all geared towards
50:00what you would think of as a TikTok viral song.
50:02But I don't know. Jeff Buckley is also doing really well. That's an artist I love, not
50:07British, but just like I don't know why he is doing so well, but he is fantastic and I
50:12love to see it. But also I do get a little gatekeepy. I'm like, no, everyone knows this
50:18deep cut Radiohead song. God, I thought I was cool.
50:21OK, so we are going to move on to our second game, which is what would you cue? I have
50:26a few prompts here. Just pick one song per prompt that comes to mind.
50:30OK, so what would you cue to take you back to your childhood?
50:34That one's easy. Mr. Blue Sky by ELO.
50:37Good pick.
50:38Which has gone through its own revival period with Guardians of the Galaxy. But that's
50:43number one standout for me.
50:45OK. What would you cue to represent your favorite era of music?
50:48This is a tough one. I would actually go with Blue Monday by New Order.
50:54Ooh.
50:54So originally came out in 83. I didn't get onto it until like 86, 87 because it was the
50:59first CD I bought when I owned a CD player.
51:03Doesn't own one anymore.
51:04And that took me down the whole odyssey of obviously New Order into I was living in England
51:09at the time into the crazy kind of Manchester phase of the Stone Roses and the Happy Mondays
51:15and that phenomenal period of music in England.
51:17Yeah, that's a great pick. OK, finally, what would you cue to represent the best concert
51:22you've ever been to?
51:24Right now, and it's pretty fresh, it's going to be anything by Paul McCartney because the
51:29best show I've probably been to in many years of going to shows was the Paul McCartney show
51:35in LA this year. So the Undercard show when it was 1,200 people.
51:40And how do people get in for that? Did you just get super lucky? I mean, industry.
51:45Uh, there was a lot of luck involved. Yeah. A lot of luck involved.
51:49Yeah, no, I have a new favorite concert this year. Did you see the Rosalia tour when it
51:54came through?
51:55I did not.
51:56It was insane. I was thinking about flying to Mexico City to see her again, but then I
52:01realized that that was a bad use of my money. Actually, is that a bad use of my money?
52:04I don't know.
52:06I was pretty sure before, pretty sure before I went to the Paul McCartney show that it
52:09was going to be the best show I ever go to, went to, and it did not disappoint. So.
52:14I love that. Well, Rob, thank you so much for coming to On The Record.
52:17Thank you for having me.
52:17All right. Thank you so much to Rob Jonas for joining me to talk about all things nostalgia
52:21and catalog music. And thank you for listening to this week's episode of On The Record.
52:25If you liked today's show, give us a follow on Instagram or on our TikTok page at
52:30BillboardOnTheRecord, where you can find new clips of this show every single week.
52:32We'd also appreciate it if you rated our show on your favorite podcast platform,
52:36because all these things help On The Record grow bigger and better than ever.
52:40Also, my glam for this episode of On The Record is sponsored by Booka,
52:44the new and easy way to book LA's most sought-after beauty and wellness professionals,
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52:54I'm your host, Kristen Robinson, and tune in next week for another peek behind the
52:58curtain of the music business. I'll see you then.
53:11I'll see you then.