00:00What happens when BRICS challenges Washington and Trump responds with a tariff weapon?
00:05And as India, Russia and China push for strategic independence,
00:09could another power be quietly rewriting its alliances?
00:12Today, two stories about the changing rules of global power.
00:16One, where Trump threatens 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil,
00:21putting India's energy security and trade interests at risk.
00:25The other, where Canada looks towards Europe as tensions with Washington grow,
00:31exploring an unprecedented EU partnership.
00:34One uses economic pressure to enforce alignment.
00:37The other seeks strength through diversification.
00:41Is the world moving away from dependence on one superpower?
00:45Hello and welcome. You're watching Statecraft with me, Gita Mohan.
00:49India's Russian oil imports have come under fresh pressure from Washington, D.C.
00:54as the U.S. moves towards legislation that could allow steep tariffs on countries buying Russian energy.
01:01For four years, Indian refiners have relied on discounted Russian crude to manage import costs and maintain supplies.
01:08The proposed U.S. measures could now affect that very arrangement.
01:13The U.S. House of Representatives has passed legislation allowing President Donald Trump
01:18to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries purchasing Russian oil and gas.
01:24The bill now heads to Trump's desk.
01:26India is among the countries exposed to these proposed measures.
01:31Russian crude accounted for 30.3% of India's oil imports in fiscal 2026,
01:37valued at nearly $41 billion.
01:39In July, Russia supplied more crude to India than the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Brazil, Oman and the United States
01:49of America combined.
01:50New Delhi has said it is monitoring developments and remains focused on maintaining energy security.
01:56Any reduction in Russian supplies could require Indian refiners to source crude from alternative markets.
02:05That could involve changes in shipping distances, freight charges, insurance costs and procurement prices.
02:12The impact would depend on the availability and pricing of replacement supplies.
02:18The proposed legislation could also have implications beyond oil imports.
02:22To understand what this means for India, the possible tariff implications and what options New Delhi has,
02:29we now go across to Washington, D.C. with our correspondent, Rohit Sharma,
02:33who will give us a detailed assessment of the proposed tariffs and their potential impact on New Delhi.
02:38Rohit, thank you so much for joining us.
02:40Would the tariffs now really hit Indian exports to the U.S. across board
02:45or only specific export categories like refined petroleum products?
02:49Well, look, you know, the bill, once it's signed and becomes a law, it does give president a broad power.
02:58Now, we do have to understand that some of these things will obviously be written in the order that the
03:05president issues.
03:06It has to be ratified by the White House.
03:09So we'll have to wait and watch, you know, if that's going to cover a broad range of categories.
03:14Right. And I think we'll have to see, you know, if again, if it's used and how it's used.
03:21Now, the thing that we do know for a fact is that this is targeting countries that purchase energy and
03:28oil from Russia.
03:30So we'll have to wait and see if the president actually decides to enact on it.
03:36And if it does, then what categories would he, you know, want to target?
03:41So it could be easily, you know, be carved out for certain categories or it could be a broad range
03:48of products
03:49that could be tariffed under this new power that the president of the United States will have.
03:55So we'll have to wait and watch.
03:56I think it's one of those known, unknown at this point in time.
04:01Right. Rohit, now, when it comes to the deal itself, will the U.S. now have more leverage over India
04:08when it comes to the trade deal?
04:10Look, that's the fear everybody has in the sense that, you know, how would this new law now come into
04:20play when it comes to negotiating a trade deal?
04:23And as far as we've reported extensively on this, that the Section 302 Trance 2 findings essentially would have allowed
04:33India to understand, you know,
04:34what tariff number is the U.S. proposing, according to Minister Goyal.
04:42And he said it that, you know, India also wants to understand what kind of tariffs are going to be
04:48put on the countries,
04:49these are neighboring countries and probably should say competing countries.
04:52And India would obviously want to negotiate a number less than that.
04:55And that was the understanding until this law is passed.
04:58So I'm assuming that there is going to be a sense of uneasiness also,
05:02knowing that you can negotiate something, you know, with the U.S.
05:07And then six months down, you know, you could probably be hit by 100 percent tariffs if things go south
05:14in the Russia-Ukraine war.
05:15So those things will be hashed out, will be discussed in detail.
05:19So this does introduce a new variable.
05:21Now, I have to also remind everybody that, you know, we've come a long way since the period of tariffs
05:27in September of last year, in fact.
05:29So the two sides have been readily, you know, involved and have engaged and have discussed.
05:36We have seen multiple meetings and engagement across in different sectors and at different levels.
05:46So we'll have to wait and watch, you know, how these things go.
05:51So, but yes, it does give that one, you know, sense of, look, if things don't improve in that war,
06:01we could be held responsible and we could be hit by tariff.
06:04And it's happened in the past.
06:05So we'll have to wait and see if this actually happens.
06:09And if it does, then what options does that leave India with?
06:14Roy Sharma, thank you so much for joining us.
06:15Roy Sharma, thank you so much.
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